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Steve

By Steve,
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Barbara

Barbara 15,149

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So, I keep my own table with all kind of stats, comparisons, results and stuff in an Excel file and as I had the data broken down by team (what? I love stats, math and I enjoy a few projections, but I don't take any of the aforementioned too seriously because football isn't a science, thank God for that) I did an analysis considering who Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City have played so far and who they're yet to play and with some formulas and subjective criteria I did an analysis to know how many of the tricky matches are already left behind and how many are yet to come. I'll be the first to say it's a flawed system by definition, as football is unpredictable as it gets, and I didn't take into consideration if it's a local derby or not to change the criteria, so if you're interested to know, here it goes. I divided all teams in EPL in four groups according to how difficult it is for title contenders to play against them:

Very difficult, prone to drop points: Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City away or home; Tottenham away (red)

Challenging, points may be dropped: Tottenham home; Southampton, Everton, Newcastle away (orange)

Tricky, those teams may steal a few points from contenders: Southampton, Everton, Newcastle home; Swansea and West Brom away (yellow)

Manageable, titles contenders aren't expected to drop points: Villa, Hull, Stoke, Cardiff, Norwich, Sunderland, West Ham, Fulham, Crystal away or home (green).

I'm positive some of you will agree or disagree about some teams (hence why I said the criteria was subjective). This is exclusively from the title contenders point of view, they shouldn't drop any points, away or home from the green group and should get nearly 100% of points at stake in the yellow group, whereas the orange group is dangerous and the red group are the title contenders against themselves in addition to Tottenham at WHL, and points are expected to be dropped.

Here is just the summary (there are nearly infinite worksheets in this file, it's almost as bad as my tennis file) if you were able to follow this nonsensical rambling at all:

nonsense.png

The black spots mean those teams are yet to face any sides from those groups. The lighter colors inside the table highlights the best, the worst and the intermediate according their results, whereas the same colors in the head (only darker) show the group criteria.

It's a bit confusing, but here some interesting things.

Liverpool are the only side to have not dropped any points against the green group away and at home. Manchester City haven't dropped points at home against any side - regardless of their caliber - but they've dropped the most points away against teams in the green group. In another words Liverpool win against the weaker sides home and away whereas ManCity have been dropped points to sides they shouldn't away from Manchester and they may or may not make up for those points beating every other side at home.

Also I made a mistake in the caption (and I'm too lazy to edit the image, upload it and whats not) so let me clarify it for you. The PYD corresponds to matches played (not points), regardless of the results. I broke down in the four groups, and to offer a more realistically prospect in the last two I multiplied the red and the green group results by 2, meaning the red group is twice harder than the orange and the green twice easier than the yellow. That's why Chelsea have the best prospect. We've played the most against more difficult sides and we're played the least against more manageable sides. Arsenal and City are the opposite. They played the least against stronger sides and the more against weaker sides. The fact that City have dropped so many points even in that case isn't promising to them, although it should be said it's too early to say if they'll pay for that or not.

Now, I'll be back with other crazy input and analysis in my nonsense Excel file :P

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bushman

bushman 2,043

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So, I keep my own table with all kind of stats, comparisons, results and stuff in an Excel file and as I had the data broken down by team (what? I love stats, math and I enjoy a few projections, but I don't take any of the aforementioned too seriously because football isn't a science, thank God for that) I did an analysis considering who Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City have played so far and who they're yet to play and with some formulas and subjective criteria I did an analysis to know how many of the tricky matches are already left behind and how many are yet to come. I'll be the first to say it's a flawed system by definition, as football is unpredictable as it gets, and I didn't take into consideration if it's a local derby or not to change the criteria, so if you're interested to know, here it goes. I divided all teams in EPL in four groups according to how difficult it is for title contenders to play against them:

Very difficult, prone to drop points: Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City away or home; Tottenham away (red)

Challenging, points may be dropped: Tottenham home; Southampton, Everton, Newcastle away (orange)

Tricky, those teams may steal a few points from contenders: Southampton, Everton, Newcastle home; Swansea and West Brom away (yellow)

Manageable, titles contenders aren't expected to drop points: Villa, Hull, Stoke, Cardiff, Norwich, Sunderland, West Ham, Fulham, Crystal away or home (green).

I'm positive some of you will agree or disagree about some teams (hence why I said the criteria was subjective). This is exclusively from the title contenders point of view, they shouldn't drop any points, away or home from the green group and should get nearly 100% of points at stake in the yellow group, whereas the orange group is dangerous and the red group are the title contenders against themselves in addition to Tottenham at WHL, and points are expected to be dropped.

Here is just the summary (there are nearly infinite worksheets in this file, it's almost as bad as my tennis file) if you were able to follow this nonsensical rambling at all:

nonsense.png

The black spots mean those teams are yet to face any sides from those groups. The lighter colors inside the table highlights the best, the worst and the intermediate according their results, whereas the same colors in the head (only darker) show the group criteria.

It's a bit confusing, but here some interesting things.

Liverpool are the only side to have not dropped any points against the green group away and at home. Manchester City haven't dropped points at home against any side - regardless of their caliber - but they've dropped the most points away against teams in the green group. In another words Liverpool win against the weaker sides home and away whereas ManCity have been dropped points to sides they shouldn't away from Manchester and they may or may not make up for those points beating every other side at home.

Also I made a mistake in the caption (and I'm too lazy to edit the image, upload it and whats not) so let me clarify it for you. The PYD corresponds to matches played (not points), regardless of the results. I broke down in the four groups, and to offer a more realistically prospect in the last two I multiplied the red and the green group results by 2, meaning the red group is twice harder than the orange and the green twice easier than the yellow. That's why Chelsea have the best prospect. We've played the most against more difficult sides and we're played the least against more manageable sides. Arsenal and City are the opposite. They played the least against stronger sides and the more against weaker sides. The fact that City have dropped so many points even in that case isn't promising to them, although it should be said it's too early to say if they'll pay for that or not.

Now, I'll be back with other crazy input and analysis in my nonsense Excel file :P

I see, still pretty tedious work here & a bit short too. It´s time to elaborate here. :dance:

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Barbara

Barbara 15,149

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I see, still pretty tedious work here & a bit short too. It´s time to elaborate here. :dance:

Mathematics, stats and projections are fascinating to this Brazilian girl, I might as well share what I do in my free time - which right now is 95% of my time :P

As for being short - not sure if you're sarcastic, but I'm trying to force myself to write less. It's a challenge as big as Arsenal winning even Mickey Mouse Cups...

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