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Tomo

Chelsea Transfer Pub

Started by Tomo,

10,867 posts in this topic

Just trying to figure out what the budget may be for us. I am going to base things from Jan 19 as I think that is the most fair way of doing things; 

Brought 

Pulisic - £58m 

Kovacic - £38m 

Ziyech - £37m 

Werner - £48m 

Total - £131m 

Sold 

Morata - £50m 

Hazard - £90m + bonus 

Luiz - £8m 

Pasalic - £13.5m 

Nathan - £2.7m 

Lamptey - £3m 

Aina - £7m

Kalas - £8m

Hector - £4m

Omeruo - £4m 

Cesc - £8m 

£198.5m + Hazard bonuses 

That tells me that Harvetz must be pretty much the end of our buys without sales. 

From looking at the squad and what we need, I would say, we need: 

GK, LB, CB, CB/DMF (this last one is much lesser a concern that the first three.)

How much are we going to need for that? My feeling with the current players needing to be shipped out is that we could do something like the following (prices have been arrived at as we need to sell and Covid); 

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £15m, Zouma - £30m.

That for me is around £100m. If that is the case, £25-£30m will go on a LB, which leaves us with £70m for a GK and CB. If we want a DMF/CB (Rice) I reckon we would have to get rid of a Jorgi or Kante to fund it. 

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You have those player sales, you also have 3 windows worth of budget, really.   And lest we forget IF needed we can turn to Roman for bankrolling.   After Werner, Havertz and Ziyech I'd bet we could spend another 200m if we wanted.  Of course not to say we will, just making the point.

Sales help with balancing the books, but we could quite easily do all our in business, then focus on sales.  And should one of those sales be a key player for excellent money, we'd replace i suspect.

 

Dont think Zouma goes though, i think he or Rudiger will be partner to a potentially new CB.    My guess list would be Batshuayi, Emerson, Willian free, Pedro free, Bakayoko, Zappa, Moses, Baba, Drinkwater, Kenedy.   Could be loans in that lot again, though

 

Jorginho I am 50-50 on.  Can see him staying and going.  Depends on the offer IMO.  Barkley I suspect will stay due to HG.  Unless West Ham take him for Rice

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10 minutes ago, ChelseaFanUK said:

You have those player sales, you also have 3 windows worth of budget, really.   And lest we forget IF needed we can turn to Roman for bankrolling.   After Werner, Havertz and Ziyech I'd bet we could spend another 200m if we wanted. 

In normal situation I would say the same. But we had 100m loss last fiscal year. Plus Covid influence (at least 50m). 

But yeah even Everton or Aston Villa can go and spend 100m net in one transfer window.

I expect three more players.

Drop big money for CB and cheaper options for LB/GK.

CB - Gimenez/Skriniar 70-90M

LB - Telles/Tagliafico/Gosens 20-25m

GK - Pope/Areola/Cakir 20-25m 

 

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1 hour ago, King Kante said:

Just trying to figure out what the budget may be for us. I am going to base things from Jan 19 as I think that is the most fair way of doing things; 

Brought 

Pulisic - £58m 

Kovacic - £38m 

Ziyech - £37m 

Werner - £48m 

Total - £131m 

Sold 

Morata - £50m 

Hazard - £90m + bonus 

Luiz - £8m 

Pasalic - £13.5m 

Nathan - £2.7m 

Lamptey - £3m 

Aina - £7m

Kalas - £8m

Hector - £4m

Omeruo - £4m 

Cesc - £8m 

£198.5m + Hazard bonuses 

That tells me that Harvetz must be pretty much the end of our buys without sales. 

From looking at the squad and what we need, I would say, we need: 

GK, LB, CB, CB/DMF (this last one is much lesser a concern that the first three.)

How much are we going to need for that? My feeling with the current players needing to be shipped out is that we could do something like the following (prices have been arrived at as we need to sell and Covid); 

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £15m, Zouma - £30m.

That for me is around £100m. If that is the case, £25-£30m will go on a LB, which leaves us with £70m for a GK and CB. If we want a DMF/CB (Rice) I reckon we would have to get rid of a Jorgi or Kante to fund it. 

Does not make much sense to include 18/19 and 19/20 FY books in 20/21. 3 very different entities.

For this season so far we have a net spend of 20m € for werner and ziyech (offset by Morata, pasalic, Nathan).

Add 80m€ of kai, and that's 100m€.

As for sales, I am pretty sure jorginho is a goner. So that would be

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £25m, Rudiger - £30m, jorginho - 40m£. 

150m £ in player sales, along with kenedy, Drinkwater, musonda, baker, Blackman, baba rahman, zappacosta, matt miazga etc etc. So 

Don't forget, only 6 loanees from this season.

Also, all of this is organic revenue that we would generate, there must be atleast 25-50m£ of the transfer budget too. So we might have more than a decent budget for a GK, CB and LB.

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9 minutes ago, Puliiszola said:

Does not make much sense to include 18/19 and 19/20 FY books in 20/21. 3 very different entities.

For this season so far we have a net spend of 20m € for werner and ziyech (offset by Morata, pasalic, Nathan).

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? :carlo:

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

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Just now, NikkiCFC said:

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? :carlo:

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

If we are looking at net spend then no. Because makes no sense accounting wise to mix up 2-3 years. 

Like you said in your post above, we had a 100m loss in 18/19, so it's not like we are a profit making machine and we spend only what we earn. 

The only thing we care about is being FFP compliant. Which allows us to have 30m € loss in a 3 year rolling window. 

So given that we had a 100m loss in 18/19, I am pretty sure the hazard sale helps us balance that year out. And this year we need to break even to be compliant. So to answer your question, I don't think hazard sale helps us, other than maybe his bonuses might be included in the 20/21 season rather than 19/20.

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1 hour ago, NikkiCFC said:

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? :carlo:

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

Just did some more digging regarding our finances. We made 60m profit in 17/18 to 96m loss in 18/19. 

The swing of £156m can be captured in:

Profit on Player Sales down £52m

Exceptional cost up £20m

Amortization cost up £44m

Wages up £40m

Total £156m

 

Similarly if we do an analysis between 18/19 and 19/20

Exception costs will be down by 26m (what we paid Conte in 18/19)

Profit of player sales - in 18/19 we sold players for about 75m€, while this season we have sold players for about 150m+€. So not a linear extrapolation due to various different amortization fees but still let's say we double our profit. So that's a profit 60M£ (lower value).

Amortization cost - should be up as we bought kova and Puli (half a season). So around 15m loss

Wages - lost hazard and Luiz, but gave some big cobtracts to rlc, cho, James, mount, tomori. Not sure. Maybe broke even.

So just by this, we might still incur a loss 15m despite the whole hazard transfer fee already included. Also loss on match day revenue is not added to it. 

So have to say, does not look it's the hazard money which is making us go big. By the looks of things, it feels like the club will be letting go of the loan army who have been increasing our amortization value + wages for so long. Get this Zappa + baba rahman cost us around 10m in amortized value itself. Selling them would not only reduce that but also reduce wages (or atleast keep the same if the other team was paying it) while giving us some profit. The youth players (mount, rlc, cho, Tammy, james, gilmor, tomori) would all help in that. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2020/01/08/how-chelsea-went-from-record-60m-profit-to-96m-loss-in-one-year/amp/

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8 hours ago, Puliiszola said:

If we are looking at net spend then no. Because makes no sense accounting wise to mix up 2-3 years. 

But are you ignoring Covid? Look at other teams. Arsenal, Liverpool, United, Spurs can't spend 30m it seems. 

European giants as well. Real and Bayern can't afford Havertz this summer but we can? Juve also just doing swaps. 

Last summer if we could, surely we would spend more than 100m apart from Kovacic. We lost our best player. So this money must have been kept for this summer. Kai, Timo and Hakim are 160m pounds. And we will still buy 3 or 4 more players. Our interest in Chilwell, Rice is well known. Even Atletico asistent confirmed our interest in Oblak. We are scouting Gimenez. Ofc we won't get them all if any but they are all expensive players. It's clear to me that we are in different situation to other clubs because of transfer ban. This transfer window doesn't look like typical Chelsea summer. Especially if you add Covid as big influence for everybody in business. 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

But are you ignoring Covid? Look at other teams. Arsenal, Liverpool, United, Spurs can't spend 30m it seems. 

European giants as well. Real and Bayern can't afford Havertz this summer but we can? Juve also just doing swaps. 

Last summer if we could, surely we would spend more than 100m apart from Kovacic. We lost our best player. So this money must have been kept for this summer. Kai, Timo and Hakim are 160m pounds. And we will still buy 3 or 4 more players. Our interest in Chilwell, Rice is well known. Even Atletico asistent confirmed our interest in Oblak. We are scouting Gimenez. Ofc we won't get them all if any but they are all expensive players. It's clear to me that we are in different situation to other clubs because of transfer ban. This transfer window doesn't look like typical Chelsea summer. Especially if you add Covid as big influence for everybody in business. 

Covid influence is on teams which had match revenue as one of their main revs. We don't. We have a small stadium and we don't charge arsenal type prices. If you see match revenue as % of our overall rev, it's quite low. 

Also, there is a paradigm shift in our club. Not in those. Rm still has to pay 300kpw to hazard, Ramos, tibo, Modric etc 

While we have lost almost all of our highest earners in the last 2 seasons- hazard, willian, pedro, Luiz, Cahill

I see our spending as a result in improvement on wage bill and amortized value. Not as a result of hazard fee. Those fees are important if we are a self sustaining club, which we still are not (96m loss last year).

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Chelsea are back-in for Getafe's Marc Cucurella. The English club launched a first notice in March and now, according to latest news, the blues are willing to pay €30m for the 22-year-old left-back.

{AS}

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11 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

Chelsea are back-in for Getafe's Marc Cucurella. The English club launched a first notice in March and now, according to latest news, the blues are willing to pay €30m for the 22-year-old left-back.

{AS}

I know he's good offensively, but can he defend? 

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8 minutes ago, Artandur said:

I know he's good offensively, but can he defend? 

I have to admit i have only seen him play once. there he looked a bit wild. I am not sure he is any better than Emerson defensively. But apparently we are looking for an attack-minded fullback not defensively super solid one.

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1 minute ago, Magic Lamps said:

I have to admit i have only seen him play once. there he looked a bit wild. I am not sure he is any better than Emerson defensively. But apparently we are looking for an attack-minded fullback not defensively super solid one.

Well at least he can run, that would already be a step up from alonso i guess 

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23 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

Chelsea are back-in for Getafe's Marc Cucurella. The English club launched a first notice in March and now, according to latest news, the blues are willing to pay €30m for the 22-year-old left-back.

{AS}

no

hard pass

short (he was always listed at 1.72m at Barca, not he has magically grown 3cms at Getafe?), I was not impressed with him at Barca

he is shit defensively too

and in almost 3700 minutes (including mostly in pinball La Liga), 1 goal, 6 assists all comps

€30m for him is MADNESS

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20 minutes ago, Artandur said:

I know he's good offensively, but can he defend? 

no and no

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1 hour ago, NikkiCFC said:

Chelsea are back-in for Getafe's Marc Cucurella. The English club launched a first notice in March and now, according to latest news, the blues are willing to pay €30m for the 22-year-old left-back.

{AS}

The last few Spanish players we bought have not turned out great at all...

Vesper likes this

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9 minutes ago, Jason said:

The last few Spaniard players we bought have not turned out great at all...

and please

no more Sideshow Bob haircuts

Getafe 'to exercise option' for Marc Cucurella and beat Premier ...Sideshow Bob GIF - Find & Share on GIPHYBarca ask for more money from Getafe for Cucurella - BeSoccer

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43 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

But apparently we are looking for an attack-minded fullback not defensively super solid one.

If this is true then Alex Telles. 

13 goals and 12 assists this season. 

But with Pulisic, Havertz, Werner and Ziyech upfront not sure we need offensive type? I think these boys will produce so much forward that I am fine with other midfielders and full backs being more defensively oriented. 

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12 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

If this is true then Alex Telles. 

13 goals and 12 assists this season. 

But with Pulisic, Havertz, Werner and Ziyech upfront not sure we need offensive type? I think these boys will produce so much forward that I am fine with other midfielders and full backs being more defensively oriented. 

Apart from Ziyech they are all more finishers than creators. a bit more creative input from the fullbacks wont hurt

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