closed Chelsea 1-0 Man City

[cosmicway 1,333]

35 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

For bookmakers final Chelsea:PSG least likely to happen. For me most likely. 

The elo ratings, to which the bookies assign gravity, say:

REAL = 1047
Chelsea = 1887
CITY = 2020
PSG = 1867

The PSG number is outrageous - they made PSG into Luton town !
CFC too low compared to REAL. We used to be level pegging at 1900 some weeks ago.
CITY is on the high side, as also witnessed today.

PSG in France are not doing well. They are second to Lille and I switched off the tv when Lille were playing Ajaj for the Europa.
Even if PSG win the French championship in the end it's not good enough. But in Europe it's a different proposition.

I will make the PSG rating 1950 now (c.f. Barcelona are 1932 it says) and I 'm going to look what probabilities the ratings suggest.

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by cosmicway

[Magic Lamps 11,692]

So the final is on 15th may. The day we play Leicester anyway. So which fixture will be moved ? 

[Jase 43,479]

Just now, Magic Lamps said:

So the final is on 15th may. The day we play Leicester anyway. So which fixture will be moved ? 

That Leicester game. lol Will be moved to a few days later.

[Tomo 21,751]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

That Leicester game. lol Will be moved to a few days later.

Aren't those fixtures being moved anyway so every stadium gets one game with fans?

[Jase 43,479]

1 minute ago, Tomo said:

Aren't those fixtures being moved anyway so every stadium gets one game with fans?

Oops! You're right. The schedule I saw earlier didn't update it yet.

So matchday 37 is on May 18/19, meaning there's nothing but the cup final on that May 15 weekend.

[cosmicway 1,333]

23 minutes ago, cosmicway said:

The elo ratings, to which the bookies assign gravity, say:

REAL = 1047
Chelsea = 1887
CITY = 2020
PSG = 1867

The PSG number is outrageous - they made PSG into Luton town !
CFC too low compared to REAL. We used to be level pegging at 1900 some weeks ago.
CITY is on the high side, as also witnessed today.

PSG in France are not doing well. They are second to Lille and I switched off the tv when Lille were playing Ajaj for the Europa.
Even if PSG win the French championship in the end it's not good enough. But in Europe it's a different proposition.

I will make the PSG rating 1950 now (c.f. Barcelona are 1932 it says) and I 'm going to look what probabilities the ratings suggest.

 

Computer generated win probabilities (fair prices):

City = 36.2% (2.76)
Real = 25.8% (3.88)
PSG = 22.2% (4.50)
CFC = 15.8% (6.33)

The bookies say:

City = 2.25 (= for burglars)
PSG = 4.33
Real = 5.00
CFC = 5.50

Apart from the glaring mistake of the ratings with PSG which I 'did not take into account, the rest of the ratings if true suggest City but it's not a value bet. Neither PSG or Chelsea, if those ratings are true.
Real is a value bet for winning the champions league.

But in reality City too are overrated and we are underrated.
So my conclusion is that at the prices offered both Real and Chelsea are good bets (at this hour).

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by cosmicway

[Magic Lamps 11,692]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

That Leicester game. lol Will be moved to a few days later.

Let's hope southampton somehow manages to get through. would be so annoying to play leicester twice within days.

Anyway the fa cup date is terrible in our fixture lsit. We play the Real, Man City, Arsenal, FA Cup final and then Villa in a space of 18 days. crazy. This phase will decide our season. some of our players looked knackered today already. Lets hope TT knows when to rest which players.

[Magic Lamps 11,692]

5 hours ago, Jason said:

Our fixtures look like this now...

Apr 20 - Brighton (h)
Apr 24 - West Ham (a)
Apr 27 - Real Madrid (a)
May 1 - Fulham (h)
May 5 - Real Madrid (h)
May 8 - Man City (a)
May 12 - Arsenal (h)
May 15 - Leicester/Southampton (n)
May 18/19 - Leicester (h)
May 23 - Aston Villa (a)

We should rest players vs Brighton, Fulham and yes Arsenal. No way around that.

[NikkiCFC 8,325]

4 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

We should rest players vs Brighton, Fulham and yes Arsenal. No way around that.

Which players really? We don't have regular starting 11. We just beat City without Chris, Mendy, Kovacic... Pulisic and Havartz also didn't start. I think under Tuchel Alonso and CHO have more minutes than Chilwell and James. Whoever he picks it does not hurt our quality on the pitch. Maybe only Rudiger and Azpi don't get rotated. 

[DDA 9,941]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

3 of Ziyech's 5 goals have been assisted by Werner, which is 1/3 (or 1/4) of his total assists.

Am sure when we bought them, we were expecting the assisting and scoring thing to be the other way round...

For sure but as long as the ball goes into the net and we win. Who cares who does what. 

[Stats 7,145]

Although he went off slightly earlier, I still give my MOTM to Mount. He was fantastic once again. Constantly got fouled, however he always looked to make things happen and caused Fernandinho nightmares. His awareness is so good and he is always one step ahead. Love the way he receives the ball and just sharply turns away from an opposing player and leaves them in no man's land. Chilwell's performances getting a lot stronger again too. Had a fantastic game also as did rest of team.

[Special Juan 28,141]

What a win that was, Mount was sublime again.

[Muzchap 8,966]

2 hours ago, Special Juan said:

What a win that was, Mount was sublime again.

How the ref didn't book Fernandinho is beyond me.

Poor old Azpi looked knackered at the end. 

He's been a consistently good player for us.

[milka 3,393]

 

[Tomo 21,751]

2 minutes ago, milka said:

 

Why tf is Torres still getting marketed like he was a success?

[Milan 17,958]

This is after getting subbed

I don't know whether he is in pain or praying for the team on the pitch, but man, I keep saying it over and over again but this man is such a legend that breathes football. And a warrior. Fingers crossed he is fine to face Real Madrid.

[Milan 17,958]

 

 

🤨

[manpe 10,861]

2 hours ago, Milan said:

 

 

🤨

MK Ultra glitch 😄 

[Laylabelle 9,535]

Here we go..lets see who we get.

There's people!!! So weird to see people again. 

[Milan 17,958]