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Champions League Final 2012 - Chelsea 1 (4) - (3) 1 Bayern Munich


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  1. 1. MOTM?



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If we do get a pen, I am willing to bet my house that Frank will blast it down the middle. He always does in big occasions.

Thinking RDM would surely have the players practice their penalties in training, just in case.

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Why bother? If it comes down to pens, everyone knows there will only be one outcome.

I know there's the German thing going on here but hope you're not serious when you said that.

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Or Luiz for that matter. Actually, in our current squad I would only trust Lamps, DD and Kalou to take pens.

True. And with the squad slightly stretched because of the suspensions, we might see Malouda, Mikel, Essien, Cole all taking penalties.

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Ask Barcelona ahahah, in the first gol of the 1st leg, the goal of chelsea was incredible, 3 touch and gol, fast and simple

Granted, but it was once in 90 minutes, and you were at home. Dortmund did it five times on a neutral pitch. This is my point... Chelsea are a very good counter-attacking team (not taking anything away from you), but, just from this aspect, Dortmund are a class above anyone else at the moment.

If you can emulate that, you can score 5 against us in the final as well. But I really doubt you could do it as efficiently as Dortmund.

The Bayern players lacked will yesterday. Their minds were clearly on the CL final. However, now some heads will be lowered. I don't mind losing out on the DFB Pokal, in fact I'm more worried about the morale ahead of the CL final. We hope we don't end up 2nd in all competitions this season :)

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Granted, but it was once in 90 minutes, and you were at home. Dortmund did it five times on a neutral pitch. This is my point... Chelsea are a very good counter-attacking team (not taking anything away from you), but, just from this aspect, Dortmund are a class above anyone else at the moment.

If you can emulate that, you can score 5 against us in the final as well. But I really doubt you could do it as efficiently as Dortmund.

The Bayern players lacked will yesterday. Their minds were clearly on the CL final. However, now some heads will be lowered. I don't mind losing out on the DFB Pokal, in fact I'm more worried about the morale ahead of the CL final. We hope we don't end up 2nd in all competitions this season :)

Amen!

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True. And with the squad slightly stretched because of the suspensions, we might see Malouda, Mikel, Essien, Cole all taking penalties.

Ashley Cole is a very assured penalty taker. Would have no worries about him stepping up. Done it more than enough times, in big occasions.

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I think its very easy just to say Bayern lacked the will or weren't fully focused yesterday, but in all honesty i'm sure they were. The one thing all players want is trophies and when you get a chance to go on and win one, you will always put in full focus especially when its against one of your rivals. The fact is yesterday Bayern were simply outclassed which had nothing to do with them. Klopp got his tactics spot on and that early goal really helped to rattle them (even though they equalised) and so those saying 'don't read too much into this game' i think are just doing so to not appear to over confident or get their hopes up. I'm not getting confident either, but we can draw a lot from this game. We've seen how to attack Bayern effectively, how to defend against them and how we should put pressure on them. The effect of this loss will also no doubt effect their players and their spirit, they've just been thumped in a bloody cup final ffs! The thought of how they conceded so early will carry on to the next final and they'll be tentative and so hopefully we can pounce then. The slim hopes we had have definitely increased, not by a lot, but enough to give us hope

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Ashley Cole is a very assured penalty taker. Would have no worries about him stepping up. Done it more than enough times, in big occasions.

Didn't he blast one over in the penalty shootout against Everton in the FA Cup last season??

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Really not sure where they came up with a nash equilibrium of kicking 61.5% to the right in that article. One would think randomizing between left, right, and centre 1/3rd of the time would be a more likely equilibrium. 61.5% seems more like an exploitive strategy than a game theory optimal one (and since they're probably basing it on past success % of the number of pens taken against different goalkeepers, there's probably a bias built into their results).

Kicking to the right 61.5% of the time doesn't really make the goalkeeper indifferent between going left or right (or staying centre). As a matter of fact, it should make the keeper more likely to dive right. To adjust, Lampard would end up kicking more often to the left (chosen at random, of course). And should they run multiple trials, they would both ultimately settle into playing an equilibrium.

Here's a quick model only accounting for left and right (didn't want to deal with the extra algebra at this time of night that comes with including centre, lol). When Lamps shoots left and keeper goes right, Lamps gets 1 and the keeper gets 0. When Lamps shoots left and so does the keeper, the goalie gets 1 and Lamps gets 0 (he makes the save, in effect), and so on and so forth. This is a super simple model (especially the payoffs) and doesn't account for things like the times Lamps will shoot right and the keeper will dive right as well but Lamps will still get a goal, or the times he'll miss the net altogether. This will probably happen close to equally as often on both sides so in a way they cancel each other out.

lampardgto.jpg

Using simple algebra we deduce: 1p+0(1-p)=0p+1(1-p) = P = 1/2. So Lamps kicking left or right with an equal probability of 1/2 will make the keeper indifferent to diving left or right. The keeper can do no better against Lampard by changing his strategy in any way, shape, or form to try and counteract what Lamps is doing.

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