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Champions League Final 2012 - Chelsea 1 (4) - (3) 1 Bayern Munich


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  1. 1. MOTM?



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Really not sure where they came up with a nash equilibrium of kicking 61.5% to the right in that article. One would think randomizing between left, right, and centre 1/3rd of the time would be a more likely equilibrium. 61.5% seems more like an exploitive strategy than a game theory optimal one (and since they're probably basing it on past success % of the number of pens taken against different goalkeepers, there's probably a bias built into their results).

Kicking to the right 61.5% of the time doesn't really make the goalkeeper indifferent between going left or right (or staying centre). As a matter of fact, it should make the keeper more likely to dive right. To adjust, Lampard would end up kicking more often to the left (chosen at random, of course). And should they run multiple trials, they would both ultimately settle into playing an equilibrium.

Here's a quick model only accounting for left and right (didn't want to deal with the extra algebra at this time of night that comes with including centre, lol). When Lamps shoots left and keeper goes right, Lamps gets 1 and the keeper gets 0. When Lamps shoots left and so does the keeper, the goalie gets 1 and Lamps gets 0 (he makes the save, in effect), and so on and so forth. This is a super simple model (especially the payoffs) and doesn't account for things like the times Lamps will shoot right and the keeper will dive right as well but Lamps will still get a goal, or the times he'll miss the net altogether. This will probably happen close to equally as often on both sides so in a way they cancel each other out.

lampardgto.jpg

Using simple algebra we deduce: 1p+0(1-p)=0p+1(1-p) = P = 1/2. So Lamps kicking left or right with an equal probability of 1/2 will make the keeper indifferent to diving left or right. The keeper can do no better against Lampard by changing his strategy in any way, shape, or form to try and counteract what Lamps is doing.

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the last few pens he has taken he has buried them into the top corner or into the roof of the net. Certainly seems assured to me

Don't remember him scoring too many penalties. CL final Moscow, Community Shield in Carlo's first season and this year's League Cup against Fulham are the only ones I can recollect. Not too large a population size to pass a verdict either way.

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David Luiz@DavidLuiz_4

Good morning my geezers! I'm going to training ground now for one more treatment day! Big hug and enjoy the sunshine!

He just only tweeted that.

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I honestly think Jupp Heynckes purposely had his team play softly.

Wow what a delusional excuse. I think you were overconfident about your defence and the Dortmund loss should show Bayern fans your defence ain't so great...

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Don't remember him scoring too many penalties. CL final Moscow, Community Shield in Carlo's first season and this year's League Cup against Fulham are the only ones I can recollect. Not too large a population size to pass a verdict either way.

or on the other hand of the pens we have seen he has a 100% success rate.
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I am not sure, I really want us to go for penalty shootout against german team and Neuer is fantastic in penalties (Based on what I saw in madrid game and he also almsot saved hummels penalty)

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For Kalou to do what he did after JT missed in Moscow, the biggest pressure kick he will ever take in his life, to just casually stroke the ball into the top corner putting EVDS the wrong way deserves a lot of credit imo. I have seen his last few pens, they have all gone the same way and if he keeps putting it there, the keeper wont save many there. He's a good penalty taker for sure.

I've never questioned Kalou's commitment or confidence but in a UCL final, i would simply be worried that he's not good enough in the position he plays, he's certainly not a winger. He could probably do a relatively decent job behind the front man but taking on LB's or RB's simply doesn't work for him. I don't remember him ever doing a mazy dribble past 2 or 3 defenders down the wing. Duff and Robben were wingers, what we have now ain't and are still being used out of position quite horribly.

I think we went from 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1 to kind of narrow it a bit so these guys aren't too far out wide and lost and altho i think its worked pretty well, i like to see more quality players in the 3 behind the striker. Lampard and Mikel works as a slightly deeper duo, that's fine. Torres... still not looking like he's gonna score 20 a season but still shows wonderful technique with a football, can dribble, runs back a lot and generally does come deep. The Fernando Torres of today imo is perfect as a second striker or a man in the free role. Him and Mata somewhere behind Drogba would be devastating imo, just a shame it can't be used or isn't being used as much. Against that Munich defence that could be put out against us, that would inevitably cause a lot of problems.

For the UCL Final we could even go as far as using this. Not a 4-2-3-1 but a 4-3-2-1. We don't have wingers, whatever anyone says we DO NOT have a proper genuine winger at the club. This is a possible option. It may look like Essien is out wide but he's not, it's a bit like how he played with Lamps and Maka in 2006 which dominated many teams. The 3 will be narrow, we may get done out wide but i think there's more chance of causing their makeshift defence a few problems.

The worry is defending 'Robbery' if we are focussing more on the middle but in a 4-2-3-1 there's actually less chance as in a 4-3-2-1 there can be more defensive power with 7 back and then 3 brilliant players going forward. A 3 of Drogba, Mata and Torres can be just as deadly on paper, maybe even more deadly that their front 3. Worth a shot?

Drogba

Mata - Torres

Lampard - Mikel - Essien

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Kalou's Moscow penalty was the confidence of youth. Nani and Anderson struck in some really nonchalant efforts at Moscow as well.

Belletti's Penalty was Excellent...

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bit naive to write Robbie off so easily

I'm not writing him off but Robben's out of form. Ribery and Kroos are in very good form while Gomez can always punish you, extremely dangerous striker.

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I said 'Robbery' meaning both.

I know, my post wasn't aimed at you, that's why I didn't quote you. But a lot of people are worried about Robben.

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Robben isn't the one we should be woried about. It's Ribery, Kroos and Gomez who can really hurt us.

Not Gomez. He scores his goals in small occasions against easy teams; of his 25 league goals this campaign, 36% came against teams that finished in the bottom 4 of the Bundesliga. The percentage of his goals scored against teams that came in the top 4? 0%.

He'll flop. He's probably the first German footballer I've heard of that has troubles in the big matches.

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I dare not say things like that because it can come back and bite hard. I know a lot about Gomez but at the end of the day he did score the winner against Real Madrid altho it did kinda hit him and go in. He does score against shit, he doesn't score in big games and he is hugely over rated but there is no reason he can't score a couple against us. Paper is different to the real thing.

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Not Gomez. He scores his goals in small occasions against easy teams; of his 25 league goals this campaign, 36% came against teams that finished in the bottom 4 of the Bundesliga. The percentage of his goals scored against teams that came in the top 4? 0%.

He'll flop. He's probably the first German footballer I've heard of that has troubles in the big matches.

Well he scored against Man City, Napoli and Real. And you're right about him not scoring against the top 4 in the league this season, he did score goals in the big games last season. The same in his time at Stuttgart. And look at his record in the CL. So it doesn't say much.

But of course I hope he won't score against Chelsea but the man is dangerous.

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