closed Chelsea 1-0 Man City

[cosmicway 1,326]

1 minute ago, Simon1991 said:

Yeah Keppa had nearly no save to make. I also felt him really nervous with his distribution, sent it long rather than short on several occasions he could have.

Not criticizing him (he kept a CS after all); but i would not go as far as saying he was SOLID.

He has good distribution. Mendy is the one with the poor distribution.

[Simon1991 225]

Just now, cosmicway said:

He has good distribution. Mendy is the one with the poor distribution.

Yeah that's the theory, not what i am seeing on the pitch.

[OneMoSalah 8,778]

23 minutes ago, Patrick Bamford said:

Loser mentality vs. Winner mentality

 

 

Tbf I think those comments from Frank were weird, like I don’t know was it so that he could turn around and say the teams not ready and we need more time to get to a certain level? For me though it felt more like he was saying that to hide his short comings as a manager. I mean I dont know about yous but I think his short comings as an actual manager here were sometimes brutally exposed here. Tactically particularly. Identifying trends in games and being proactive to stop them by making alterations/subs. And lack of an actual style or clear way of playing. 

I get its only been since January Tuchel’s been in and next season who knows what will happen but he knows he’s got limited time to make an impact and he has instantly turned things around. He is here to bounce back also from his time at Paris which is maybe further motivation for him too, to prove a point but I think if he says he is going to do this or that, he will put everything into it to do what hes said. 

[Jase 43,479]

2 hours ago, DDA said:

You know what. If you look at Werners assist numbers... he is a massive improvement on Willian. Fair play.

3 of Ziyech's 5 goals have been assisted by Werner, which is 1/3 (or 1/4) of his total assists.

Am sure when we bought them, we were expecting the assisting and scoring thing to be the other way round...

[King Kante 1,484]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

Our fixtures look like this now...

Apr 20 - Brighton (h)
Apr 24 - West Ham (a)
Apr 27 - Real Madrid (a)
May 1 - Fulham (h)
May 5 - Real Madrid (h)
May 8 - Man City (a)
May 12 - Arsenal (h)
May 15 - Leicester/Southampton (n)
May 18/19 - Leicester (h)
May 23 - Aston Villa (a)

If you want to be a big club, you have to embrace a fixture list like that. I think finishing 4th is going to be hard, however if you want to win things, you have to accept it. 

1 hour ago, Tomo said:

When I play fifa career mode I always have a random game where i get hammered by a shithouse team and they do it playing quality football.

That game was literally that. 

Shithousery is the best way to win games. Too many people want to play tippy tappy football, so they can post gifs and have other people tell them how good they play. Give me a Lord Percy or a Costa f*cking someone over, any day of the week.

1 hour ago, NikkiCFC said:

4 clean sheets for Kepa under Tuchel. Was very good for Sarri. Looks like his only problem was Lampard? 

Yeah, but the fact of the matter is our 3atb system is currently playing like late 80's/early 90's Milan. When that is the case, the GK is essentially a passenger. However, with Kepa, even in his 'good' seasons, the stats speak for themselves. Take a reasonable shot against him and you're 50/50 to get a goal.

51 minutes ago, Atomiswave said:

Ohh 1 last comment.......it best not be that cunt Anthony Taylor for the final. He alone took away 2 FA cups from us.

I swear bald refs have something against us. 

[Jase 43,479]

23 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

Tbf I think those comments from Frank were weird, like I don’t know was it so that he could turn around and say the teams not ready and we need more time to get to a certain level? For me though it felt more like he was saying that to hide his short comings as a manager. I mean I dont know about yous but I think his short comings as an actual manager here were sometimes brutally exposed here. Tactically particularly. Identifying trends in games and being proactive to stop them by making alterations/subs. And lack of an actual style or clear way of playing. 

I know every manager wants to their own man (or woman) but said this before, I just don't understand how was Lampard so tactically naive when he played under some of the most pragmatic and best tactical managers in his career - Mourinho, Ancelotti, Hiddink and even Benitez. It's almost as if he learned nothing from them. Lampard had the right idea on how he want to play but the execution side of things was just so bad. 

[Jase 43,479]

4 minutes ago, King Kante said:

If you want to be a big club, you have to embrace a fixture list like that. I think finishing 4th is going to be hard, however if you want to win things, you have to accept it. 

Seems to easier to qualify for the Champions League by actually winning it than trying to finish in the Top 4...

[OneMoSalah 8,778]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

I know every manager wants to their own man (or woman) but said this before, I just don't understand how was Lampard so tactically naive when he played under some of the most pragmatic and best tactical managers in his career - Mourinho, Ancelotti, Hiddink and even Benitez. It's almost as if he learned nothing from them. Lampard had the right idea on how he want to play but the execution side of things was just so bad. 

I suppose it just shows, top players don’t always become top managers at all or will be top managers at the beginning of their managerial career. I think the whole making mistakes and learning from them is the only way to truly progress as a manager.

There was wee signs at times, although not often enough maybe, that he was doing so but the general lack of progression or regression is maybe a better word, of the team as well as lack of a clear structure/system in place which you could identify what we were trying to do certainly held us back. 

 

[milka 3,347]

 This team with this spirit and with this coach CAN win CL THIS SEASON 

[King Kante 1,484]

36 minutes ago, Jason said:

Seems to easier to qualify for the Champions League by actually winning it than trying to finish in the Top 4...

Agreed. The Real game is very 50/50 for me, however I think PSG is a bad match up for City as Neymer/Mbappe will have a field day against their high line. However, for PSG both us and Real are their nightmare. For me, if PSG get to the final, both us or Madrid should be favourites. If City get there, it will be tougher because if they step up their intricate play at a reasonable pace, they can pull both our and Real's defence about. 

[cosmicway 1,326]

25 minutes ago, King Kante said:

Agreed. The Real game is very 50/50 for me, however I think PSG is a bad match up for City as Neymer/Mbappe will have a field day against their high line. However, for PSG both us and Real are their nightmare. For me, if PSG get to the final, both us or Madrid should be favourites. If City get there, it will be tougher because if they step up their intricate play at a reasonable pace, they can pull both our and Real's defence about. 

I prefer City. Real also prefer City.

Edited April 17, 2021 by cosmicway

[NikkiCFC 7,955]

1 minute ago, cosmicway said:

I prefer City. Real also prefer City.

For bookmakers final Chelsea:PSG least likely to happen. For me most likely. 

[cosmicway 1,326]

35 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

For bookmakers final Chelsea:PSG least likely to happen. For me most likely. 

The elo ratings, to which the bookies assign gravity, say:

REAL = 1047
Chelsea = 1887
CITY = 2020
PSG = 1867

The PSG number is outrageous - they made PSG into Luton town !
CFC too low compared to REAL. We used to be level pegging at 1900 some weeks ago.
CITY is on the high side, as also witnessed today.

PSG in France are not doing well. They are second to Lille and I switched off the tv when Lille were playing Ajaj for the Europa.
Even if PSG win the French championship in the end it's not good enough. But in Europe it's a different proposition.

I will make the PSG rating 1950 now (c.f. Barcelona are 1932 it says) and I 'm going to look what probabilities the ratings suggest.

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by cosmicway

[Magic Lamps 11,655]

So the final is on 15th may. The day we play Leicester anyway. So which fixture will be moved ? 

[Jase 43,479]

Just now, Magic Lamps said:

So the final is on 15th may. The day we play Leicester anyway. So which fixture will be moved ? 

That Leicester game. lol Will be moved to a few days later.

[Tomo 21,733]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

That Leicester game. lol Will be moved to a few days later.

Aren't those fixtures being moved anyway so every stadium gets one game with fans?

[Jase 43,479]

1 minute ago, Tomo said:

Aren't those fixtures being moved anyway so every stadium gets one game with fans?

Oops! You're right. The schedule I saw earlier didn't update it yet.

So matchday 37 is on May 18/19, meaning there's nothing but the cup final on that May 15 weekend.

[cosmicway 1,326]

23 minutes ago, cosmicway said:

The elo ratings, to which the bookies assign gravity, say:

REAL = 1047
Chelsea = 1887
CITY = 2020
PSG = 1867

The PSG number is outrageous - they made PSG into Luton town !
CFC too low compared to REAL. We used to be level pegging at 1900 some weeks ago.
CITY is on the high side, as also witnessed today.

PSG in France are not doing well. They are second to Lille and I switched off the tv when Lille were playing Ajaj for the Europa.
Even if PSG win the French championship in the end it's not good enough. But in Europe it's a different proposition.

I will make the PSG rating 1950 now (c.f. Barcelona are 1932 it says) and I 'm going to look what probabilities the ratings suggest.

 

Computer generated win probabilities (fair prices):

City = 36.2% (2.76)
Real = 25.8% (3.88)
PSG = 22.2% (4.50)
CFC = 15.8% (6.33)

The bookies say:

City = 2.25 (= for burglars)
PSG = 4.33
Real = 5.00
CFC = 5.50

Apart from the glaring mistake of the ratings with PSG which I 'did not take into account, the rest of the ratings if true suggest City but it's not a value bet. Neither PSG or Chelsea, if those ratings are true.
Real is a value bet for winning the champions league.

But in reality City too are overrated and we are underrated.
So my conclusion is that at the prices offered both Real and Chelsea are good bets (at this hour).

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by cosmicway