The English Football Thread

[communicate 2,703]

Matic with 3 years extension Wow.

I like matic but he always has major drop off after half a season, not sure what happen once he got older 

[Vesper 27,283]

24 minutes ago, communicate said:

Matic with 3 years extension Wow.

I like matic but he always has major drop off after half a season, not sure what happen once he got older 

not this year (COVID-19 break probably helped)

he has freed up Pogba and Bruno to a large degree

[Vesper 27,283]

16 hours ago, Fulham Broadway said:

That massive point lead is deceptive -around 20 points on luck, late goals, dodgy decisions.  

and not even remotely close to dominance of 2015/16 PSG

they won by 31 points!!

and then........ along came

Mbappe and Monaco

https://www.skysports.com/ligue-1-table/2015

[OneMoSalah 8,611]

19 hours ago, Vesper said:

Ralph Hasenhüttl doesnt fuck about

he stripped Pierre-Emile Højbjerg of the captaincy after he said he wanted to leave

He has done well to turn the tide after their start to the season.

He is a very promising manager and I think with a few signings, Southampton can build on their turnaround this year. Who knows a good season next year and he could get a bigger job. Similarly to Poch or even Koeman in a way. He has a clear defined style and has shown he is interested in developing players as you can see with Che Adams (getting better after having a tough season), Danny Ings, Stuart Armstrong (didnt get going when he first arrived from Celtic although someone who has always been very talented since Ronny Deila signed him from Dundee Utd for Celtic), Jack Stephens, Jan Bednaker, James Ward-Prowse who have all improved under him. Plus his time at Leipzig, he had a big influence on the likes of Werner, Forsberg, Keita etc who all played with him. 

[Vesper 27,283]

16 hours ago, Laylabelle said:

What is intresting is Man Citys title defence..

The gap at the moment is 23 points..which could grow or be cut who knows..still big though. 

Yet City still are 2nd.  

Our bad title defence...31 point gap yet we ended up 10th place...we currently are 32 points off the top but 4th

How times have changed... maybe City will beat that point/gap wise.. know Leicester did but their title win was crazy..as was ending up 10th that year

I just want the dippers to be blocked from 100 points and a new win and points record and new wins in a season record

to get there it is us and Arse, we need to beat them and Arse needs to draw or beat them with us drawing or winning 2 draws leaves them on 100 even, so tied with Shitty, but does block the most wins in a season

that can then used to bash those cunts (as it would mean a really big collapse the last third or so of the season)

I also LOVE LOVE LOVE the fact that COVID-19 (one of the ONLY good things that shit has done) has destroyed their celebrations

best year for them to win the league (if it had to happen)

this was the dippers last great  game

over FIVE months ago

they were shit or bleh  in 11 of the next 12 (Only played well v Palace 2 weeks ago)

that is a massive falloff from where they were sitting after that SOTON crushing

and 5 of the games were bad, 'dippers being outplayed badly' losses

Watford (that started the fall)

Atleti twice

Chels wooooooot

and the pasting by Shitty

 

 

[Jase 43,479]

27 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

He is a very promising manager

Think Hasenhuttl can potentially manage one of the top 6 sides but you make him sound very young when he's already 52 years old.  

[communicate 2,703]

1 hour ago, Vesper said:

not this year (COVID-19 break probably helped)

he has freed up Pogba and Bruno to a large degree

He is always excellent early in the season. Even in his first half of season with United with Mou he was really2 good. We'll see i guess. 

[OneMoSalah 8,611]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

Think Hasenhuttl can potentially manage one of the top 6 sides but you make him sound very young when he's already 52 years old.  

True but I think it would depend which top 6 side. I think if he was at a club like Spurs or Arsenal and they let him rebuild it would be a good appointment. There is pressure there but not to win titles, more to close the gap. That is why I feel Jose will eventually get sick of it there unless they make big moves to prompt themselves up into a position where they can be winners which after the job Pochettino did is the next logical step. Arsenal already have a young coach in Arteta so they will probably be after making that step eventually too. 
 

He isnt young, true but as we seen with Sarri, it doesnt really matter what age you are if you can work yourself into a position to have success of some kind, be it winning a league title with Juventus after winning a Europa League with Chelsea. The progression could be there at the right club.

Id be surprised if Bayern, Dortmund or even Germany haven't thought about him in the longrun as an alternative to say Julian Nagglesman at some point in the next 2 or 3 years, I mean he has shown qualities at Leipzig and at Southampton. He has the potential, maybe not as much as those but there is a difference between getting Nagglesman who will be hugely in demand as we all know Real, Bayern, Germany, City even Barca etc have been rumoured to be keen on him in the past or someone who has slowly been building his reputation at a club which is used more for progressing, as we've seen with players and managers at Southampton. Plus if he does well next year again his stock will rise and the top clubs are more and more open to trying to get managers who can progress within them as opposed to being the finished article now a days. I mean look at Real with Zizou when he went in, Juventus with Sarri to an extent, us with Lampard, Arsenal with Arteta, Barca with Seiten, United with OGS. The top top managers currently out there are very picky and make more demands than these guys who are maybe more open to having the chance to work within a framework in these unique opportunities that wouldn't have necessarily been available to coaches of their stature or experience 10 years ago so they are becoming increasingly appealing to clubs. Pep really broke that mould when Barca appointed him over Jose. 

[Vesper 27,283]

xGreenwood: Is most lethal forward in PL overperforming, or will run continue?

https://theathletic.com/1909843/2020/07/05/mason-greenwood-manchester-united-bournemouth-double/

Witnessing Mason Greenwood score his seventh and eighth Premier League goals up close, it was impossible to escape the feeling that the conviction in his finishes was markedly at odds with the actual quality of the chances.

Clearly, both openings were obvious shooting opportunities, but at the feet of a typical Premier League striker anticipation of the net bursting back may have been measured. Already though, a different expectancy is emerging around Greenwood.

Once with his left and once with his right at an empty Old Trafford, Manchester United’s 18-year-old forward made the ball look and sound like it had been fired from a cannon, living up to the song that describes him as dynamite.

On social media after United’s 5-2 win over Bournemouth Greenwood posted an emoji stick of explosive to celebrate his first Premier League brace, and while that may have been a bit of fun it does point to a developing truth. Because the power and placement Greenwood can get in his finishing explains why, at the moment, he has the best ratio of expected goals (xG) to actual goals in the Premier League.

Opta have analysed more than 300,000 shots to calculate the likelihood of a goal being scored from a certain position on the pitch during a particular phase in play. It takes into account several variables including the style of assist, whether it arrives at head or foot, and the angle and distance from the goalmouth. The database builds a statistical probability of a goal being scored, and ultimately enables analysts a deeper assessment of action on the pitch.

This Opta map shows the places Greenwood has taken his 31 total shots from, the probability of each resulting in a goal, and which actually went in.

Greenwood’s eight goals have come from an xG of just 2.4, meaning he is outperforming the norm at a rate of 3.3 (goals divided by xG).

Of the 28 players to score eight or more Premier League goals, Kevin De Bruyne has the next best ratio. His 11 goals have come from an xG of 6.8 — a ratio of 1.62.

It is clear the proportion by which Greenwood is exceeding expectations far surpasses any other player in the Premier League right now. A large caveat comes from the small sample size — Vardy’s 21 goals are proof of consistency — so the question is whether Greenwood can sustain such a run.

One of the reasons that Expected Goals is such a useful metric is because it’s more predictive of how many goals a player is likely to score in the future than the number of goals they’ve actually scored. In a small sample of shots, a player may look like an excellent finisher or an awful finisher — even Lionel Messi recently had 18 shots over three games without scoring — but over a larger sample their goal tally usually falls in line with the quality of chances they’re getting.

Consider Teemu Pukki, who earlier this season had six goals from an xG of 2.3 — a ratio of 2.6. By the time the Finnish forward had his eighth goal his ratio had dipped to 1.66 from an xG of 4.8. Now his ratio stands at 1.02 with 11 goals from an xG of 10.7. His goalscoring is now practically in line with his xG, and an example of why strong finishing at times is due to small sample sizes blurring the lines between skill and luck.

Tammy Abraham had even better numbers at the start of this season. He reached seven goals from an xG of just 2.7 – a ratio of 2.63. But he too was unable to maintain such overperformance. His eighth goal came at an xG of 4.5 — a ratio of 1.79 — and he now has 13 goals from an xG of 14.7, a ratio of 0.88.

Realistically, that tells us Greenwood’s finishing should move more in line with his underlying xG in future. The xG figure itself is a measure of getting into good shooting positions, but not necessarily about the quality of finishing itself. Although there’s little research that suggests it’s true, logic tells us that shot power and placement are two of the few ways a player can be an above-average finisher — both are raw materials possessed by Greenwood.

Additionally, being comfortable shooting on either foot means there are fewer positions and angles that are uncomfortable to shoot from compared to a more one-footed striker. Two excellent two-footed players are good examples of this: since 2015-16, Spurs’ Son Heung-min has 51 non-penalty goals in the league from an xG of 35.4. Eden Hazard also has 40 non-penalty goals since 2015-16, from an xG of 24.8.

Greenwood is also adding clever movement to his game, which combined with incredible balance is a nightmarish prospect for defenders, as he showed against Bournemouth on Saturday.

For his first goal, he engineers an extra yard of space away from right-back Adam Smith by stepping towards Bruno Fernandes in one instant then bending back sharply in the next.

Smith goes with Greenwood’s initial movement so, by the time Fernandes releases the pass, a gap has opened up. Greenwood’s lightening feet position the ball quickly and the sheer heft of the shot is too great for Adam Ramsdale.

Greenwood’s second begins when he receives the ball from Nemanja Matic with his back to goal.

But as Bournemouth’s players shout “don’t let him turn,” Greenwood has the equilibrium to twist on the spot, shift the ball from one foot to the other, and unleash another ferocious shot, this time from an improbable angle. The 18-year-old is able to get such power because both feet are off the floor just after the moment of impact.

Though he is as effective with either foot, it was actually his first Premier League goal using his right.

With the job done, Greenwood was replaced. He went to sit in the stands, chatted to Brandon Williams and Scott McTominay, and sipped a supplement drink of the same milk-bottle appearance as the one Fernandes was handed after coming off against Brighton, which aids recovery and sleep after a game.

Greenwood certainly deserved a rest because while he comes alive around the box, he is increasingly getting involved in deeper situations. In the second half, he helped Aaron Wan-Bissaka defensively, carried the ball 42 yards, then offloaded to Paul Pogba.

It brought to mind his run from a similar position for his goal against Watford.

On that occasion, he reached the penalty area, got the ball back off Fernandes, and whipped in another finish of tremendous pace.

His shot against Newcastle carried the same whiplash dynamism, and by now it is obvious that if Greenwood picks up the ball anywhere outside the box he will inevitably drive forward and go for goal.

His goals against Everton and Norwich came that way. On both occasions his immediate intention was for shooting, but rather than power these finishes showcased his precision. Each one passed through the legs of a defender — Yerry Mina and Grant Hanley respectively — and into the bottom corner beyond dives from Jordan Pickford and Tim Krul.

While shooting between opponents’ feet does come naturally to Greenwood, it is something Ole Gunnar Solskjaer mastered, and tips have been given to all players on the training ground.

Solskjaer used to do the same with Wayne Rooney. Warren Joyce, who coached United’s reserves alongside Solskjaer, tells The Athletic: “You could see Ole coaching Wayne Rooney on how to shoot through people’s legs. The timing, the positioning to off-balance the defender, into this corner because the goalkeeper can’t see. Even when he was reserve coach he would go across and talk about that level of detail.

“They are the kind of conversations that went on all the time in every position throughout the club on a regular basis. Then it was coming up in practices and training sessions where people would have to make those decisions. At the end of the journey, your brain is like a computer, seeing the pictures, flicking through again and again. Which is the right one to select? That is the thing we tried to do with the players, so you are creating experienced heads on 19-year-old bodies.”

Not 19 until October 1, Greenwood has areas to improve, of course. Heading is one aspect being worked on, while getting across the near post to crosses from Wan-Bissaka and Luke Shaw is another. Greenwood nearly reached a low Wan-Bissaka cross in the first half against Bournemouth.

Greenwood’s first Premier League goal came via that route, a tap-in to Marcus Rashford’s perfect delivery away to Sheffield United. Greenwood sensed the chance, beating Phil Jagielka to the ball inside six yards.

It was one of only three “big chances” created for Greenwood in the Premier League this season, giving another reason why his goal-to-xG ratio is so high. (He failed to score with his other two.)

Classed as “a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal”, the idea is for Greenwood to get more big chances as he develops even greater understanding with his team-mates.

The simple fact though is that he can create chances for himself. Against Brighton, he received Wan-Bissaka’s pass 33 yards from goal. But drove at Lewis Dunk, finding space through two stepovers, and eventually shot from level with the penalty spot.

It is not trite when Solskjaer says “the sky is the limit” for Greenwood. Only three players 18 or under have scored more in a Premier League season than him — Michael Owen (twice), Robbie Fowler, and Wayne Rooney — and football’s postponement has enabled him to gain extra improvement in his debut campaign as well as more time to challenge for a place in Gareth Southgate’s squad for the European Championships.

As Rashford became United’s first academy graduate to hit 20 goals in a season since Paul Scholes in 2002-03, it is not too fanciful to think Greenwood might be able to replicate. He needs five more and United could have 11 further matches should they reach FA Cup and Europa League finals.

Martial included, it would mean three United players reaching 20 goals in a season for the first time since 1964-65 when Denis Law (39), David Herd (28), and John Connelly (20) all reached that marker.

It is a big ask for a teenager but, as current statistics show, xGreenwood can score from even the most minimal chance.

[Vesper 27,283]

Why is this Spurs’ worst season of shooting since data began?

https://theathletic.com/1907729/2020/07/06/spurs-tottenham-shoot-kane-son-mourinho-jose-xg/

With their Champions League hopes on the line against Sheffield United last Thursday, Tottenham were expected to throw everything at their opponents. Instead, they quickly ran out of ideas and managed just one shot in the second half — Harry Kane’s 90th-minute tap-in.

It was a dismal return but it was no aberration. Spurs are shooting less than in any season since Opta began recording the data in 1997-98. They are averaging just 12.1 shots per game, which is comfortably below their previous lowest of 12.4 in 2005-06.

In the Premier League this season, they have posted the 11th-highest number of shots, below Brighton and Aston Villa, and just above bottom club Norwich. Shooting more often does not necessarily equate to success — Thursday’s 3-1 winners Sheffield United are bottom of the metric this season for example — but it’s revealing that the most frequent shooters in the Premier League are the same clubs that currently occupy the top five positions in the division. As the legendary ice hockey player Wayne Gretzky put it: “You miss 100 per cent of the shots you don’t take.”

And Spurs’ average of 12.1 shots per game this season represents a steep decline from a few years ago. From 17.2 in 2015-16 to 17.6, 16.4, and 14.1 in the three campaigns prior to this. During this season, they averaged 12.5 per game under Mauricio Pochettino, and are averaging 11.8 per game under Jose Mourinho.

Part of this is to do with waiting until being in better positions before shooting, as demonstrated by Spurs’ shot conversion rate of 13.2 per cent being their best since the data began being collected in 1997-98, and the fifth highest in the Premier League this season.

But it also speaks to a less threatening attack, and is representative of a team that dominates games far less. That extremely high figure of 17.6 shots per game in 2016-17 was the season Spurs finished second with 86 points and were able to overwhelm opponents with wave after wave of attacks.

A lot has changed since then.

---

A major reason Spurs struggle to create chances is the absence of Christian Eriksen. He had his critics towards the end but, excluding Gedson Fernandes, who has played just 60 Premier League minutes, Eriksen has the best chances created per 90 minutes ratio of any player for Spurs this season, despite not being at peak level.

Without his guile and skill at unlocking defences, Tottenham often find themselves running into blind alleys or not being decisive enough in the final third. Even as recently as Boxing Day when Eriksen was on his way out of the club, he retained the ability to carve open a deep-lying defence. On that occasion he produced a sumptuous pass to help set up Dele Alli’s goal in the 2-1 win over Brighton.

Contrast that with Erik Lamela’s attempts against Sheffield United at Bramall Lane, and his struggles against Manchester United last month when he misplaced numerous attempted through balls.

In the below example Lamela makes a good run through the middle of the Sheffield United defence but can’t make his mind up about which pass to choose. Eventually he tries to play in Lucas Moura, who is by this point only a few feet away and not anticipating a pass. The ball bobbles back to Lamela but he now has three defenders around him and they can hack the ball away.

Against Manchester United it was a similar story, and the below example is instructive. Son makes a run in behind the opposition defence and requires a lofted ball over the top to be sent clean through on goal. Instead Lamela waits, dribbles forward and then misdirects a pass that sails straight towards Harry Maguire who can easily clear. It’s a pass you would back Eriksen to make with either foot.

Giovani Lo Celso is capable of that kind of creativity but when Spurs play with three forwards off Kane, as they have done in every game since the restart, he is stationed deeper. Playing with a system that allows him to play higher up the pitch could help Spurs be more incisive in the final third. As would Tanguy Ndombele finding form and fitness — but perhaps that’s a discussion for another day.

Returning to the present, another problem for Tottenham is that they often struggle to take advantage of promising counter-attacks. In the next example, Sissoko makes a good run from deep but by the time he approaches the Sheffield United box, he appears to panic. After ignoring Son Heung-min and running into Steven Bergwijn’s space, he is too close to the Dutchman by the time he plays the ball and his team-mate is rushed into attempting a return pass that’s intercepted.

A more structural issue is the team’s reliance on Serge Aurier to provide width and an attacking threat from the flanks. Aurier is adept at getting forward and finding space, but often his final ball is poor and doesn’t lead to goalscoring chances. Against Sheffield United he attempted six crosses, only one of which found a team-mate and even that was uncomfortably behind Son. None of the six were defined as “good crosses” by Opta.

The first image below sees Aurier overhit a cross, while the second is underhit and easily headed clear.

Often his crosses are fired in low, and with varying degrees of success. Having so many low crosses does also partly explain why Spurs are shooting less — you can have a dangerous cross fizzed across the box that doesn’t lead to a shot but is still a decent opening. Though against Sheffield United this was not the case, with the below illustration of an easily cleared low cross at the near post a typical example.

Given Spurs’ other full-back Ben Davies is instructed to play as a third central defender when the team is in possession, there is a huge amount of responsibility on Aurier to create chances. At the moment, given how few shots Spurs are managing, it’s a system that doesn’t seem to be working.

Another major reason for why Spurs have become so shot-shy is because Kane is shooting much less often. As explored by The Athletic earlier in the season, it’s hard to know whether Kane’s output is lower because Spurs have declined or vice versa. Their recent histories and fortunes are so intertwined.

In any case, Kane has gone from averaging 5.4 shots per game in 2017-18, which is frankly far too many, to almost half that with 2.9 this season (his lowest since breaking into the first team).

Part of this is to do with Kane taking up much deeper positions than previously, as demonstrated by him having more touches in his own box than the opposition’s against Manchester United.

Kane’s touch map against Manchester United in June

Against West Ham and Sheffield United, Kane was able to get more shots away but when he does drop deep, Son and Lucas Moura have struggled to find space in behind opposition defences.

Son has also been guilty on a few occasions this season of over-elaborating and not getting a shot away when the opportunity has presented itself. Son’s injury, coupled with Kane’s absences this season, are also partly responsible for Spurs’ reduced shooting, but it’s been a downward trend for the last few years now.

Broadly the decline speaks to Spurs’ lack of dominance and control in matches. They may have ended up beating West Ham when the two sides met last month, but it was tough to disagree with Michail Antonio’s pre-match assessment that: “One thing I noticed (from their draw against Manchester United) is that they are not that free-flowing, attacking team they used to be. They sat back quite a bit and played more on the counter.”

Much has been made of Tottenham’s defensive deficiencies, but starting tonight against Everton they must rediscover their attacking verve if they are to stand any chance of an unlikely late push for the top five.

[Laylabelle 9,292]

3 hours ago, Vesper said:

I just want the dippers to be blocked from 100 points and a new win and points record and new wins in a season record

to get there it is us and Arse, we need to beat them and Arse needs to draw or beat them with us drawing or winning 2 draws leaves them on 100 even, so tied with Shitty, but does block the most wins in a season

that can then used to bash those cunts (as it would mean a really big collapse the last third or so of the season)

I also LOVE LOVE LOVE the fact that COVID-19 (one of the ONLY good things that shit has done) has destroyed their celebrations

best year for them to win the league (if it had to happen)

this was the dippers last great  game

over FIVE months ago

they were shit or bleh  in 11 of the next 12 (Only played well v Palace 2 weeks ago)

that is a massive falloff from where they were sitting after that SOTON crushing

and 5 of the games were bad, 'dippers being outplayed badly' losses

Watford (that started the fall)

Atleti twice

Chels wooooooot

and the pasting by Shitty

 

 

That's it. Problem is even when playing poorly they've won which before something they havent managed to do.

And who knows what City are doing. Have barmy defence moments at times. 

[Vesper 27,283]

8 hours ago, Johnnyeye said:

 only after a few pints mate, but even that wouldn't be enough to erase it from my mind lmao

omg

I cannot unsee this!

curse you to hell!!!!!!

[Atomiswave 6,072]

I hope Everton vs Spurs is a cracker, too many boring games after the restart, our match vs City the best so far imo.

[Laylabelle 9,292]

Haha as theyve pointed out..the sacked Chelsea manager derby

[Atomiswave 6,072]

9 minutes ago, Laylabelle said:

Haha as theyve pointed out..the sacked Chelsea manager derby

Whom said that Layla?

[Laylabelle 9,292]

6 minutes ago, Atomiswave said:

Whom said that Layla?

BBC..

''It's the sacked Chelsea managers' derby! Hoping Carlo can make Jose go home feeling blue''

And one we sacked twice!

[Atomiswave 6,072]

2 minutes ago, Laylabelle said:

BBC..

''It's the sacked Chelsea managers' derby! Hoping Carlo can make Jose go home feeling blue''

And one we sacked twice!

Heres hoping Everton teach them a lesson.....thanks btw

[Fulham Broadway 16,386]

Wouldnt be at all surprised to see an Everton win, now Mourinho has turned on his players....