The English Football Thread

[communicate 2,703]

17 minutes ago, killer1257 said:

Mou played Kane almost every match without giving him rest and he is a player that gets injuries very easily

Gesendet von meinem SM-G920F mit Tapatalk
 

It made 0 sense not to play Harry kane almost all the time, he is your best player 

[Atomiswave 6,072]

Just now, MoroccanBlue said:

Spurs are 7 points behind and have United, Sheffield, Everton, Arsenal, and Leicester still to play. Not to mention they are conceding more than a goal a game. Their chances are 0. 

 

What a pessimistic bunch you lot are. 

Its called being realistic, if we start badly and lose ground then its anyones game. It has happened plenty before. We ourselves are hot and cold. I bet arsenal thought they had top4 in the bag but we stole it right at the death last season.

[communicate 2,703]

19 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said:

And we've performed better without him this season. 

That is not necessarily true

[killer1257 3,282]

It made 0 sense not to play Harry kane almost all the time, he is your best player 

Yeah and then he is out for the 3 months. World class Team management.

You do not play your injury prone players all the time. Simple and easy rule.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G920F mit Tapatalk

[MoroccanBlue 5,320]

4 minutes ago, Atomiswave said:

Its called being realistic, if we start badly and lose ground then its anyones game. It has happened plenty before. We ourselves are hot and cold. I bet arsenal thought they had top4 in the bag but we stole it right at the death last season.

Realistic? 

Spurs have been consistently poor all season. They are 7 points behind, conceding more than a goal a game and have 4 tough fixtures waiting for them. To think they will leap frog us for Top 4 isn't being 'realistic', it's being irrationally pessimistic. 

7 minutes ago, communicate said:

That is not necessarily true

Elaborate. Because from what I saw this season, our best football and most consistent period came when Kante was not even on the bench. 

[communicate 2,703]

3 minutes ago, killer1257 said:

Yeah and then he is out for the 3 months. World class Team management.

You do not play your injury prone players all the time. Simple and easy rule.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G920F mit Tapatalk
 

That is crazy. If you can't play your best player all the time, you are doomed as team. You managed his minute and training and don't play him in meaningless game  otherwise unless you are a super rich team like city, you are pretty much doomed 

[Atomiswave 6,072]

7 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said:

Realistic? 

Spurs have been consistently poor all season. They are 7 points behind, conceding more than a goal a game and have 4 tough fixtures waiting for them. To think they will leap frog us for Top 4 isn't being 'realistic', it's being irrationally pessimistic. 

I didnt say they will leap frog us, only that its possible. We havent been super duper either this season. Besides udt is a bigger worry, we could easily miss out if not careful.

[MoroccanBlue 5,320]

8 minutes ago, Atomiswave said:

I didnt say they will leap frog us, only that its possible. We havent been super duper either this season. Besides udt is a bigger worry, we could easily miss out if not careful.

There are more chances of us spanking Bayern 0-4 at the Allianz than Spurs finishing above us. 

United is our only worry. However, we've been ahead of them since October and I put money on our side winning our remaining fixtures given how fresh our players will be. We saw it at the start of the season. Not to mention City's CL ban looks to be still on course to be held. 

[Atomiswave 6,072]

1 minute ago, MoroccanBlue said:

There are more chances of us spanking Bayern 0-4 at the Allianz than Spurs finishing above us. 

United is our only worry. However, we've been ahead of them since October and I put money on our side winning our remaining fixtures given how fresh our players will be. We saw it at the start of the season. Not to mention City's CL ban looks to be still on course to be held. 

Yeah forgot about city's ban. Our players wont be the only ones being fresh, I do worry about udt though. They gathered some momentum and the refs gave them everything essentially especially since news broke out that city will be banned.

[communicate 2,703]

7 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said:

Realistic? 

Spurs have been consistently poor all season. They are 7 points behind, conceding more than a goal a game and have 4 tough fixtures waiting for them. To think they will leap frog us for Top 4 isn't being 'realistic', it's being irrationally pessimistic. 

Elaborate. Because from what I saw this season, our best football and most consistent period came when Kante was not even on the bench. 

It come down to balance. IMO we never looked decent defensively this season until last two games where we play Willian, Pedro plus Giroud. Two very2 solid winger and still one of the best target man in the league. 

Before that although we have been collecting points, I have never felt comfortable especially defensively. We are bit all over the place. This is where Kante can help us. If our future is with puli, cho and Tammy we need a solid midfield, otherwise it is very difficult 

[MoroccanBlue 5,320]

1 minute ago, communicate said:

It come down to balance. IMO we never looked decent defensively this season until last two games where we play Willian, Pedro plus Giroud. Two very2 solid winger and still one of the best target man in the league. 

Before that although we have been collecting points, I have never felt comfortable especially defensively. We are bit all over the place. This is where Kante can help us. If our future is with puli, cho and Tammy we need a solid midfield, otherwise it is very difficult 

We will never be comfortably defensively until we upgrade our back line. That is with or without Kante in the side. Liverpool play with no real defensive minded midfielder? 

In terms of balance, I think it's pretty pretty evident that a midfield of Mount/Jorginho/Kovacic provided us everything we needed in midfield, particularly on a technical aspect. We have a holder, an attacker, and an aggressive dribbler. Kante only really comes into play when we are against sides that either have a better midfield than us or against sides that have a better attack. Other than that he has no real use in the starting XI. 

[communicate 2,703]

16 hours ago, MoroccanBlue said:

We will never be comfortably defensively until we upgrade our back line. That is with or without Kante in the side. Liverpool play with no real defensive minded midfielder? 

In terms of balance, I think it's pretty pretty evident that a midfield of Mount/Jorginho/Kovacic provided us everything we needed in midfield, particularly on a technical aspect. We have a holder, an attacker, and an aggressive dribbler. Kante only really comes into play when we are against sides that either have a better midfield than us or against sides that have a better attack. Other than that he has no real use in the starting XI. 

CB are least of my concern for our team. Won't consider signing anyone unless a WC player are available for good price. Pool played three disciplined midfielder. 

Mount

Kova - Jorgi

Are kinda poor version of bayern

Muller

Thiago - Kimmich 

Very2 similar in term of their role and what each player offer to the team. 

Mount not a technically gifted player but offer energy, running, pressing and box threat similar to muller. Kovacic offer similar attribute as Thiago. Jorgi does not provide enough protection to our backline which is a massive problem. 

[Vesper 29,202]

On 28/05/2020 at 10:38 AM, communicate said:

CB are least of my concern for our team. 

 

cold not disagree more

and there are WC or potentially WC players out there

our four main CB's are simply not good enough atm

Lampard wants a left-footed CB

these are the only ones remotely worth buying

 

Lucas Hernández (Bayern will never sell him now)

Alessio Romagnoli (the cunt Mino Raiola as his agent makes this shit hard, but he is the perfect buy otherwise)

Gabriel Magalhães I say buy him now, IMHO, if we cannot get Romagnoli

Clément Lenglet (Barca will not sell I think)

Mohammed Salisu -  Real Valladolid,  young, tall 1.91m, very pacey, good on the ball, very, very large upside, we should be scouting him, number 3 on my list for left footed CB target,all things considered

Pau Torres - Villarreal, 23yo, tall 1.91m, good on the ball, large upside, we should be scouting him

Presnel Kimpembe (I doubt PSG will sell him)

Alessandro Bastoni (worth looking at,, 21yo, 1.90m, but Inter probably will not sell)

Benoît Badiashile (too young atm to come right in I think, just turned 19yo, but is huge (1.94m) and we have scouted him), Monaco is friendly team for us

Dan-Axel Zagadou (even bigger at 1.96m, not sure if he is that good on the ball atm, and is not the paciest, 21yo)

Samuel Umtiti (has collapsed in quality of play ever since he was superb at the WC, no clue what is wrong with him, massive enigma)

 

other non left-footed CBs who are WC or have the potential

Raphaël Varane   (would have to involve Kante somehow, and even then probably impossible, as he is the 2nd best CB in the world, after VVD IMHO, and maybe even the best)
José Giménez  (this might be a possibility, as perhaps we could work out a deal where we give AM £20m plus Morata for free, so they do not have to pay us for Morata) 
Kalidou Koulibaly  (too old now for what he would cost, unless it is a hell of a deal)
Marquinhos   (so doubt PSG will sell him)
Milan Skriniar    (my 2nd choice overall, after Romagnoli (mainly due to his being right-footed), but all the other giant clubs want him, but COVID-19 has maid it wide open)

Dayot Upamecano

Edmond Tapsoba   (exploded onto the scene in the Bundesliga, he made first team despite not playing the whole year for Bayer Leverkusen, he bossed Håland) 

 
Merih Demiral (Juve though, although we should say screw Alex Sandro, if you want Emerson, cough him up, lol)

Declan Rice has been discussed ad nauseum (and will cost a tonne)

Caglar Söyüncü (is on target to be WC, but Leicester will want insane cash)
Luiz Felipe (had a great year at Lazio)

Marash Kumbulla  (super on the ball, Albanian 20yo)

Diego Carlos   (great on the ball CB, main thing is his price, and also he turns 28 next season)   

Unai Núñez (another one Pep likes)

Ozan Kabak

Ibrahima Konaté (injury has made it hard to judge him, but he has insane upside)

Rúben Dias  (too expensive)
Gianluca Mancini    
Stefan de Vrij (if Skriniar leaves, there is zero chance Inter sells him as well, plus he turns 29 in 9 months)
Éder Militão   (he is for sale, not convinced, he struggled at Real Madrid)
Issa Diop  (too expensive, and I think there are better options)
Ben White (deffo not sold on him yet)

Robin Koch tall 23yo German, do not think he is elite level yet, may never be, need to see more

teenager:

Tanguy Kouassi    PSG  very young (turns 18 on June 7th, 2020) massive upside

 

[MoroccanBlue 5,320]

3 hours ago, communicate said:

CB are least of my concern for our team. 

[Laylabelle 9,406]

League start date decided...games in hand to be played first on the 17th June then others the weekend..all being well I guess 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52833725

[Vesper 29,202]

Is Harry Kane really in decline?

https://theathletic.com/1839470/2020/05/28/harry-kane-tottenham-jose-mourinho-england/

Such was Harry Kane’s meteoric rise for the five years after his Tottenham breakthrough, there was always a lingering fear that, at some point, he might have to slow down.

For some, that point has been reached already. The injuries, the slightly diminishing goal return and the apparent loss of a yard of pace have all been used as evidence to suggest Kane, still only 26, is not quite the force he once was. Jamie Carragher wrote in The Telegraph in April that Kane’s “physical statistics are dropping” and pointed to his recent injury record as cause for concern. In analytics circles, Kane’s dwindling shot output and reduced expected goals (xG) have been used as evidence of his decline.

So, with the Premier League edging towards a restart and Jose Mourinho confirming on Wednesday that Kane has shaken off his hamstring injury, it’s worth taking a deeper look at the numbers and context to assess Kane’s role, output and future at Spurs. The data shows him playing in a more withdrawn position this season, for instance, and is one of many elements to consider.

---

On the face of it, Kane’s reduced goalscoring numbers this season suggest that he is on the decline. Eleven Premier League goals is his lowest total since he became a regular for the club in 2014-15. That can, in large, be put down to the hamstring injury he suffered in January and the fact that there are nine matches of the season remaining. But even when we adjust the numbers to per 90 minutes played, this is still Kane’s worst campaign for Spurs when it comes to scoring non-penalty goals — contributing 0.46 per 90.

It’s also the case, however, that Kane and Spurs’ recent histories are tightly intertwined, and so it’s hard to know which way the causality runs: are Spurs worse because Kane’s dropped off or has Kane dropped off because Tottenham aren’t as good as they once were? Certainly, the tumult of this season and the transitional nature of the current team are not the ideal platform for a striker to prosper — though he has still managed to score 17 goals in 25 club appearances, so it’s important to keep any supposed “decline” in perspective. There’s always a degree to which we take such consistency for granted and pounce on any slight deviation.

To get a sense of how Kane’s output has changed over time, a look at his non-penalty goal and xG numbers in the last six years is revealing. A glance at the image below shows an obvious trend — he finds his rhythm and goes on a scoring tear in 2016-17 but the goals come down year-on-year after that, with a pretty precipitous drop after 2017-18.

While his best season for getting into good goalscoring positions was 2017-18, we see what many already know — Kane’s an elite finisher and consistently “beats” xG. Whether that is something that is sustainable in his later years remains to be seen and although he is an excellent finisher, reducing the quality of chances he finds himself in naturally reduces the number of goals he can score.

With Spurs as a team, we see a similar story. They consistently beat xG but the goals peaked in 2016-17 and their xG has been on the slide since, bottoming out this season. Tottenham’s xG per game for 2019-20 so far is 1.26, which sees them as the 12th-best in the Premier League — in other words, a mid-table quality attack.

There’s been a similar downward trend in the volume of chances that both Spurs and Kane create. It’s notable that in Kane’s earlier seasons, Spurs were capable of creating plenty of shooting opportunities with Kane contributing a smaller amount — they were a better side overall and didn’t need to rely on an individual player to create chances for them.

Football is a team sport, so it’s hard to completely pin the reason for such a large change in output onto a single player. If Spurs were to put even a historically elite striker in the team, say Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s likely his excellent shot numbers would drop off also.

So if it’s hard to infer what’s happened to Kane through his own numbers, then let’s tackle this another way — how has the support he receives changed across the past few seasons?

Below is a table of all of the assists that Kane has received from team-mates in the past few years. They are not adjusted for changing minutes or goals scored but they paint an instructive picture regardless.

There’s been an evident drop-off in the number of assists but that’s to be expected given the goalscoring numbers have dropped off. Looking positionally across the pitch, we can see that the left-back position largely occupied by Danny Rose and Ben Davies has returned just a single assist for Kane in the last two seasons, and seven in the three seasons prior.

At right-back, Kieran Trippier provided Kane with 10 assists in three seasons, with his replacement Serge Aurier posting just one in the three seasons he’s been at the club. And although Aurier has played fewer minutes, his per 90 rate of 0.02 also pales in comparison to Trippier’s 0.17.

The primary sources of assists at the start of Kane’s Spurs career were Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli. Dele and Kane formed a great partnership in 2015-16 but Dele has provided just a single assist for Kane in the past couple of seasons. This is partly a consequence of Dele playing deeper during the latter period of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign. It is hoped that his return to the No 10 role under Mourinho will reignite his and Kane’s partnership.

It should also be pointed out that there’s more to chance creation than just assists. Players can create a great chance for a team-mate, only to see them miss the target or fail to score. Looking at chances created in isolation can give a bit more insight into the volume of chances but some notion of quality is required to get an even fuller picture.

Taking into account the quality of chances that are created, we can look at the expected assists — which in this instance, are the xG of key passes — that each player has created for Kane per 90 minutes. Below is how the chances are distributed across each season for Spurs.

A handful of names stick out here but also the overall trend of fewer and fewer players able to provide Kane with decent service.

That’s illustrated best when comparing the side of 2015-16 to this season. Dele, Nacer Chadli, Erik Lamela and Eriksen four seasons ago were all creating chances that, in a full season, would expect them to each bag at least two assists.

Fast forward to 2019-20 and only the now-departed Eriksen has put up performances worth two or more assists over the course of a full season. When play resumes, Giovani Lo Celso will be expected to take on more of this Eriksen role. He has only posted one assist for the club but he registered five last season and only started playing regularly for Tottenham after Kane’s injury and once the side’s attacking options were drastically weakened.

What’s more concerning is the complete dearth of chances being created for Kane consistently from the full-back positions this season. While Trippier was a regular supplier for Kane, Aurier’s chances created for Kane are of much lower quality — even though he has provided the third-highest quality of chances for Kane this season.

So if Kane’s not being provided with as many chances, where is he spending his time?

From the graphic below, which shows how Kane’s touches have been split across the thirds of the pitch, this season represents career-highs for the share of touches in the defensive and middle thirds, and a career-low in the share of touches in the attacking third. This graphic illustrates what many have felt the eye test has shown — that Kane is dropping deeper and playing less as a classic No 9.

This graphic, meanwhile, shows how Kane has moved even deeper since Mourinho took over in November.

On a couple of occasions in Mourinho’s early weeks in charge, he praised Kane for his all-round contribution, making it clear what he expected from his centre-forward. “Not just the goals; it’s the goals, the combination play, what he does between the lines, what he does in the defensive process, what he does at the leadership level,” Mourinho said after Kane’s two goals against Burnley in December’s 5-0 win.

He was similarly effusive after Kane had scored to help Spurs beat Brighton 2-1 a few weeks later. “He’s the kind of striker who is always fantastic, even when he’s not scoring. There are so many top scorers in the world who score so many goals but the day they don’t score, their performance is always poor because they give nothing.

“This (Kane) is the guy who if he doesn’t score, his performance is good. He presses, he recovers balls, he holds the ball, he assists, he drops back.”

The expectation that Mourinho was reinforcing here is that Kane, as he approaches his 27th birthday, should be more than “just” a goalscorer.

As well as analysing where Kane is touching the ball, a closer look at his passing adds texture as to the sort of striker he is becoming and the picture that emerges is of someone moving the ball forward himself rather than simply waiting around the penalty box to pounce.

By grouping together similar passes based on their start and end locations, we can better understand the types of pass which Kane makes compared to other centre-forwards. This gives a bit more insight into the different types of passes that a player commonly makes and how different they are to others who play in the same position.

For example, the most common pass types that Kane attempts are below. Pass group 4 shows some of the shorter combination passes that he plays around the box. One are passes into and just outside of the opposition’s third, 23 are passes that go horizontally across the field and 11 are interior passes when he has the ball on the wing.

Most common pass types are one thing but looking at those made which are most different to other strikers is far more illuminating.

Below are a sample of passes in each of the groups that Kane makes far more than the average striker. This shows both his long passing range but also how he links the play in midfield far more than most other strikers.

Pass groups 37 and 2 are those sweeping, cross-field switches that Kane has become well known for in recent seasons. Notably, though, he might not be as good at these passes as we think he is — passes in this group are completed at a rate of 73 per cent on average, whereas Kane completes his at just 41 per cent of the time.

Pass group 23 — those being played just outside the area — pops up again, showing that these are odd passes for a striker to be making so often. Kane is essentially attempting passes that are typically those made by a midfielder.

Doing so creates an issue in that it’s harder for him to sprint upfield and join in with the play he’s been stitching together. Potentially, with a more consistent progressive midfield structure, as Mourinho is trying to build, Kane can focus more on being on the end of attacks and not in the middle of them.

That’s certainly where some connected to Tottenham would like to see him. “He’s best leading the line as a focal point, right from the front,” Clive Allen, one of Spurs’ most clinical strikers ever, who once scored 49 goals in a season and a former coach of Kane, tells The Athletic. “But we’ve seen him dropping a little deeper and not being as effective. I’ve been through that myself and you restrict yourself by moving around the pitch. You see that with a lot of strikers.

“He’s shown great attitude towards the game and wanting to be involved but sometimes, it’s to the detriment of the team.”

From a purely selfish point of view, it’s been to Kane’s detriment too, given he has posted his lowest-ever non-penalty goals per 90 minutes this season. Lifting those numbers back towards that 2016-17 peak is one of Mourinho’s priorities.

Because as well as appreciating his all-round contributions, Mourinho’s main focus with Kane, The Athletic understands, is to maximise his goalscoring qualities and ensure he’s as efficient as possible in the box. There is also an appreciation that Kane’s presence in the box creates additional danger for opposition teams in the way it occupies opposition defenders and creates space for Spurs’ other attackers.

So it will be interesting to see whether Kane operates a bit further forward when the Premier League resumes. The signing of Steven Bergwijn since he last played may also mean he is afforded better service and doesn’t need to drop deep as frequently. Lo Celso’s emergence since January, meanwhile, should also reduce Kane’s need to operate in central midfield areas.

---

Another factor in Kane’s evolution has been the improvement of Son Heung-min, whose pace means the South Korea international can operate further up the pitch and stretch defences like a centre-forward would be expected to — allowing Kane to play between the lines at times.

Generally though, the temptation has been to point to Kane’s injury record as a reason for why he now plays less on the shoulder of the last defender. He’s never relied on searing pace — coming through the ranks at Tottenham, it was his hard, relentless running that made him stand out — but it would stand to reason that the clutch of injuries he’s suffered in the last few years have slowed him down.

Measuring that definitively is not easy but what we can do is offer a bit of context on the injuries he’s suffered and interrogate the idea that he misses enough games for it to be a cause for concern and influence the way he plays.

Looking at the bigger picture, Kane was available for 90 per cent of Tottenham’s Premier League matches from the start of the 2014-15 season until January 1 this year, when he suffered that hamstring injury against Southampton. In his five completed seasons in that period, he averaged 33 Premier League matches per season or 45 in all competitions. Throw in the England matches he has played in that period and it’s an average of 53 games a season, taking in two major tournaments and last year’s Nations League (the week after he had just returned from almost two months out to play in the Champions League final).

These are pretty healthy numbers and the pattern continues if we drill down to just the two most recent completed seasons. Kane played 59 matches in 2017-18 and 49 in 2018-19 for club and country. This season, he has made a total of 31 appearances already and, albeit with the help of the break, will likely end up with more than 40.

The other way of framing it is that Kane has missed 19 Premier League matches — effectively half a season — over the course of this season and last.

Overall though, the picture appears to be one of an overworked player suffering injuries and needing a break rather than necessarily anything more alarming. His Spurs and England team-mate Dele experienced something similar in the aftermath of the 2018 World Cup.

Hopefully, the current off-season will be to Kane’s benefit and in the longer term, if he is to stay at Spurs, then having a second striker who can allow him to get more of a rest will also make a big difference.

A return to full fitness will also be instructive in telling us whether his newer, deeper role is down to a desire to become a more complete centre-forward or a consequence of no longer being able to as consistently sprint past defenders.

---

The state of Kane’s fitness will also have a bearing on his future. He said in March that: “I’ve always said if I don’t feel we are progressing as a team or going in the right direction, I’m not one to stay there for the sake of it.” It was consistent with previous statements of his about the need for Tottenham to start winning trophies.

At the moment, the view among some in recruitment circles is that Kane needs to remain injury-free for an extended period after the restart to show that he has not lost any of the deadliness that has marked him out as one of Europe’s best strikers. Others believe that there is no market for Kane anyway given the perilous state of most European super-clubs’ finances. Then there is the issue for a club like Manchester United of being wary of trying to negotiate with Spurs chairman Daniel Levy.

The bottom line though is that Kane is contracted until 2024 and Spurs have no intention of selling him — even if some at the club were irritated by the timing of his interview in March, just as the devastating financial effects of the lockdown were becoming clear. “We are not going to discuss this or any player position whilst we focus on protecting the club and jobs and work with the council to support those affected by COVID-19,” a club spokesperson said at the time.

With Kane expected to stay at Spurs for a while yet, it may simply be that we have to get used to a slightly modified version of him. But with the right system in place, he doesn’t have to be less effective.

What’s clear though is that he cannot do it alone. Pep Guardiola once called Tottenham the “Harry Kane team” but evidently, he can only fully thrive with a functioning side behind him.

His team-mates and Mourinho must prove that this still exists at Spurs.

[11Drogba 2,000]

 

[Vesper 29,202]

How Guardiola should remodel his Manchester City squad

https://theathletic.com/1844651/2020/05/30/pep-guardiola-manchester-city-squad-remodel/

Manchester City enjoyed back-to-back Premier League titles under Pep Guardiola and completed a domestic treble last season but 2019-20 has seen a lack of quality in key positions lead to them all but conceding the title to Liverpool. City have lost seven games (so far), which is more than the prior two seasons combined and this season, have conceded eight more goals compared to last season, with ten games yet to play.

While the gap between City and Liverpool is an astonishing 25 points, from a statistical point of view City have been a bit unfortunate and Liverpool more fortuitous.

Regardless, now’s a good time to take stock of where City are as a team and how they may try to shake their squad up like they did in 2017, when they shipped out ageing players and brought in a raft of brilliant younger options.

---

The squad that Pep Guardiola adopted in 2016 was the third-oldest in the Premier League at the time.

The initial reinforcements were a mix of youth, peak-aged players, and those who were brought in to allow Guardiola to have an influence on the squad early on. Whether they have reached their potential or not, John Stones, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus, Claudio Bravo, Ilkay Gundogan and Nolito all ticked a lot of boxes.

Still, City were the fourth-oldest in the league in terms of average age of players fielded in Guardiola’s first season. In the summer of 2017, City wanted as many as nine signings but ended up with five, who all lowered the average age and raised the quality, with ageing full-backs moved on and the likes of Ederson replacing Willy Caballero and Bernardo Silva replacing Jesus Navas.

The average age fell significantly to the sixth-youngest in the league. The outline of a dominant City side began to form, with a focus more on youth and players at the peak of their powers that would win plenty in the following seasons.

City pipped Liverpool on the final day of last season to secure the second title of Guardiola’s reign, using just 21 players in the league (the league average is 24.5).

While the City squad is built with strength in depth in mind, Guardiola does stick to fielding the players he trusts. Broadly, he plays the experienced internationals instead of young players (a strategy which has brought huge success) but even so, certain experienced internationals can also find themselves less trusted than others.

For example, after Fabian Delph’s red card in the defeat at Leicester in December 2018, he played just 10 Premier League minutes over the rest of the season. John Stones and Brazil right-back Danilo also found themselves on the outside looking in during the run-in. Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva became Guardiola’s go-to wingers, at the expense of Leroy Sane, and Kevin De Bruyne’s injury struggles kept him out, too. City use a small pool of players by design and for various other reasons, they can quickly find themselves using an even smaller core of players for weeks on end.

Just 22 players have been used so far this season but more surprisingly, the age of the squad has slowly crept up again — the passing of time does that, funnily enough — with City again finding themselves among the eldest teams in the league — the fourth-oldest overall.

Looking at that data within-season only tells part of the story, however, as the league itself has seen a shift recently. This season’s squad would have been bang on the league average back in 2016-17 but over the past couple of seasons, the average age of sides has been nudged down. This season is the first in which half the league have fielded a team with an average age of less than 26.

The age of the squad is one thing but the squad itself, despite the City Football Group’s large volume of player ownership, is pretty thin, all things considered. Despite there being so many players who could play for City, it feels like those such as Daniel Arzani (on loan at Celtic) and Pedro Porro (on loan at Real Valladolid) are not currently at the level to contribute to City, and are more likely to be sold on for a profit.

From an overall season point of view, City’s attack is the best it’s ever been under Guardiola — City create more expected goals (or xG) than any other side — although the trends noted earlier are worthy of attention when football resumes.

The defence is the key cause for concern for City’s management hierarchy. This is the weakest the team has been at the back since Guardiola arrived and shouldn’t be so flimsy that the injury of one player — Aymeric Laporte, in this case — can seemingly throw everything into disarray. Fernandinho took on Laporte’s role like a duck to water but in his advancing years, he can’t always be called upon to plug City’s gaps.

Overall, this is a City team who are healthy but do need strengthening in some key positions. It should also be noted that there is not such a pressing need to boost their homegrown quota this summer. In short, Premier League squads can have no more than 17 overseas players in their squad and this season, City have 17.

In fact, they had to cancel a proposed move for veteran Spanish keeper Asier Riesgo in favour of former England international Scott Carson. And had they been able to sell Nicolas Otamendi last summer, they would have been far more likely to bring in a new overseas centre-back as an alternative to top choice Harry Maguire.

Next season, City will have much more wiggle room, with Claudio Bravo and David Silva expected to leave at the end of their contracts, Leroy Sane lining up a move to Bayern Munich and, possibly, Otamendi and even Joao Cancelo moving on. City could bring in four or five new overseas players. To top up the squad to 25 (or at least the 21/22 level), they would need top-class English players or under-21s (who do not count towards the limit of 25). At the moment, the most viable options are Sterling, Stones, Kyle Walker and Phil Foden. So while they are always sought-after, there is no especially pressing need to buy local players this summer.

---

The squad below includes the main players who have featured for the club this season and a couple of others who, potentially, could feature for the team in the near future for one reason or another.

Starting in goal, Ederson will be City’s No 1 for quite some time and behind him, a few players will sense an opportunity with Bravo’s contract set to expire. Aro Muric has already returned from an unsuccessful loan spell at Nottingham Forest and counts as a homegrown player, which at least means he won’t take up an overseas spot. The American Zack Steffen is potentially another CFG buy-to-sell player. With Carson’s loan from Derby ending, City may want another similarly-profiled keeper (homegrown/experienced) for continuity. Joe Hart, anyone?

At left-back, Angelino was a cut-price cover option and given his time at Leipzig is going well, he could be one of the shrewdest buy-backs in CFG history, making the club a hefty profit if they do sell him this summer, although his €30 million clause is harder to meet in the current climate.

City would need to reinvest those funds at left-back, however, given Benjamin Mendy’s lack of fitness holding him back from nailing down a starting berth and expectations around Oleksandr Zinchenko — another value signing — fading somewhat during a tricky season.

Laporte is the only natural left-footed centre-back option, with the others all right-footed. City hope to sign at least one central defender this summer. Stones has found himself out of the squad more and more this season, with Guardiola concerned about his focus. Otamendi came close to leaving the club last summer and has had a disappointing season.

Eric Garcia impressed on his first-team outings this season and may be given additional minutes next year but at 19 years old, is still one for the future. Taylor Harwood-Bellis, 18, is similar to Garcia in that he’s one for the future but might be a useful rotation piece in cup competitions next season.

Tosin Adarabioyo, impressing on loan at Blackburn, has just a year left to run on his contract after the summer and while a dire financial situation could make him a handy option, selling him and reinvesting the money seems a more likely outcome. Philippe Sandler, on loan at Vincent Kompany’s Anderlecht, is another who has an outside chance of contributing to City in the future but similarly to Adarabioyo, he could be sold on.

Fernandinho may well continue in defence as Laporte’s partner once we resume the season but that only serves to highlight that cover is certainly needed.

The ghost of Dani Alves’ shock snub in 2017 continues to loom over City’s right-back position; Walker has always been a trusted option and will continue to be despite some recent concerns but Joao Cancelo, who signed last summer to replace the wantaway Danilo, is already being linked with a move away. The Portugal international is a great example of City’s squad-building realities: he is experienced at the top level for both club and country, his price tag reflected a level of supposed assurance, and he should be a huge asset to the squad — but he has struggled to adapt to City’s style and has barely played.

Holding midfield is a curious position for City, too; Fernandinho is still their best option but he has not played there since last season and may well never go back. Rodri has not had the ideal debut season but the coaching staff expected some ups and downs and he is being taught, effectively, to press and tackle like Fernandinho — not an easy task. Gundogan has the ability to run games from there and may even be a better option than Rodri on his day but is more likely to partner the Spaniard in a double pivot than replace him.

Gundogan has also been used as a “free 8” but has, perhaps understandably, not been able to consistently replicate what De Bruyne and David Silva offer. With David Silva leaving ahead of next season, De Bruyne and Foden are the only two remaining players likely to consistently play there, unless City strengthen their attack and move Bernardo Silva back.

The case could be made here that with Silva leaving, City need to strengthen with an attacking midfielder. Guardiola has talked up Foden as Silva’s replacement and he will be held to that by fans and media alike but a new signing who can share minutes with Foden would be ideal — although perhaps fanciful.

Discussing City’s lack of depth starts to look a little silly when it comes to the front line: by signing a replacement for the likely outgoing Sane, they could put Sterling back on the right, competing with Riyad Mahrez, and use Bernardo in midfield. Of course, Sterling could still be used on the left in some games, and that variety is sure to help him, as well as City.

There is also some hope that highly-rated youngster Jayden Braaf could be promoted, but beyond some strong concerns about his attitude, he is also much more inconsistent than Guardiola demands. Only a completely new financial reality (one which inhibits new signings) is likely to accelerate his progression.

Finally: No 9. While Sterling and others have moonlighted at times, Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus are the only two out-and-out strikers that City have played in the Premier League since Kelechi Iheanacho in 2016-17. Aguero only has a year left on his current deal and given the current market, it would make sense to keep hold for as long as possible.

The jury still feels out on Gabriel Jesus and City have been looking for a new No 9 for over a year but he’s still just 23, is working incredibly hard, and his underlying numbers are remarkable. Jesus’ non-penalty xG — the quality of chances he gets for himself — are the highest in the league with 0.83 per 90 minutes, some distance ahead of Sergio Aguero’s 0.71. When (or if) he sharpens his finishing, he has what it takes to lead the line for City. In the current market, it makes very little sense to move him on.

The argument could be made that City are a long-term injury away from a striker crisis but that threat has remained the same since Iheanacho left in 2017 and with Sterling for back-up if required, City likely have enough here for another season — with an eye on a replacement for Aguero within the next few windows.

All in all, this is what the City squad is likely to look like next season, with the key areas that need strengthening highlighted.

With the help of Smarterscout, a site that gives detailed analytics on players all over the world, we can shortlist some potential options for City in the three core positions.

At left-back, City need a player capable of contributing to attacks, comfortable taking on a high volume of possession and able to dribble with the ball at their feet.

Among the top options on Smarterscout were Bayern’s Alphonso Davies and Real Madrid’s Marcelo — both deemed unlikely targets in this exercise — but the six names below offer a good mix of players in the prime of their careers, those who are a little younger and just coming into their peak, and a young option from the Netherlands.

Dortmund’s Raphael Guerreiro is likely a player very few are unfamiliar with at the moment: in the three games since the Bundesliga’s return, the Portugal international has scored three goals, giving him eight for the season, the best of his career.

Guerreiro fits the Guardiola mould perfectly for a full-back, as he’s previously spent time as a central midfielder in 2016-17 with Dortmund, making him adept at dropping infield when required.

Betis’ Alex Moreno and Atalanta’s Robin Gosens have similar profiles according to Smarterscout, with the former a more adept dribbler. Playing in Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta team has exposed Gosens to similar tactical concepts employed by Guardiola, as there’s a similar level of modularity, where players can swap positions and roles on the pitch on the fly. Gosens’ familiarity with this way of playing would make bedding into City’s team potentially a little easier.

Alex Grimaldo is a player who has been linked with City in the past and is a key attacking outlet for Benfica from left-back. Last season was Grimaldo’s best from an attacking point of view: four goals and 12 assists in a season in which Benfica won the title and there’s something to be said of his durability also — he has missed just 24 minutes of domestic football in the last two seasons.

Ben Chilwell was very close to becoming a City player last season until the plug was pulled in late April and at 23, would be a perfect buy to build for the future. England’s current starting left-back would likely command a hefty fee to move from Leicester but would prove a worthwhile investment if City can get the best years of his career from him, and of course, represents another much-needed homegrown option.

Lastly, Owen Wijndal is a player younger than both Zinchenko and Mendy but his starting berth for Alkmaar suggests he’s developing well for his age. Wijndal, like Gosens, doesn’t seem like a very frequent dribbler but his scores on Smarterscout for link passing and receiving in the penalty area are maxed out, suggesting that he’s involved a lot for a left-back in getting on the ball, and making attacking runs up the field to get involved in the attacking phase — both useful skills for a City left-back.

City need options at both centre-back sides: back-up for Laporte and a potential starter on the right side. With the centre-back options, the key qualities are being able to carry and pass the ball out of the back, and also some ability to defend. Having a physically robust defender who can win their duels out of possession will add an extra dimension to the dynamic play required when on the ball.

Again thanks to Smarterscout, we have a shortlist of five players. While the likes of Raphael Varane or Leverkusen’s Edmond Tapsoba would be ideal, the following are all slightly younger and, to varying degrees, able to contribute now but also anchor City’s back line for years to come.

Milan Skriniar is the first option and at 25, is the oldest player on the list. Having accrued over 8,000 minutes for Inter Milan in the last three seasons, he has plenty of experience at a good level of European football. Despite Smarterscout not fancying him that much as a right centre-back, the reason is that the majority of his minutes have come on the left side of defence. Regardless, Skriniar is right-footed and fits the age profile well for City.

Benfica’s Ruben Dias is a player that interests City but with a €100 million release clause in the contract he signed during the winter, that may dissuade the powers-that-be from bringing him to the Etihad. Again, Smarterscout isn’t a huge fan of Dias’ ability from a defensive perspective but he’s an able carrier of the ball and is one of the more able forward-passers on the list.

Stefan Posch is a well-rounded option, carrying and passing forwards at decent rates compared to other right centre-backs playing at a Premier League standard, although the fact he is relatively weak in aerial duels may count against him. He’s one to watch during the rest of the Bundesliga season.

Another option from Serie A is Nikola Milenkovic, who’s played the most domestic minutes out of all of the options. He is just 22, but a great dribbler and similar to Posch in that he’s an active defender — looking to win the ball back if it’s near him — with Dias and Skriniar less so. On paper, Milenkovic may fit the mould perfectly for what City are looking for.

The last couple of options are likely too young for City to become starters but are worth a mention nonetheless. Boubacar Kamara is not yet 21 but has 5,000 minutes under his belt for Marseille, splitting his time between centre-back and defensive midfield. That versatility would help cover a couple of positions in City’s squad and may make him a longer-term replacement for Fernandinho.

Wesley Fofana may be in the shadow of Arsenal’s William Saliba at Saint-Etienne but, at 19, is shaping up to have solid career. The 99/99 rating for defending quantity is intriguing, making Fofana one of the most active defenders in Europe. Whether that hunger to win the ball back means he’s poor positionally would require some intense video scouting but he is sure to be on City’s long scouting lists somewhere.

At left centre-back, a fit-again Aymeric Laporte will take up as many minutes as possible but an understudy would be useful to have in the squad.

Pau Torres is the most experienced option on the list, with a release clause of €50 million. City had made tentative enquiries back in the winter but the lines of communication have gone cold. Torres is an adept dribbler and passes forward more than the others on the list but is relatively weak in the air. Sources close to him had hoped for a big move this summer, possibly to Barcelona or Arsenal, after the Euros, but, of course, things are up in the air now.

The other three options are less well-rounded. Ben Godfrey’s included mainly as there might be value in getting him on a lower fee should Norwich get relegated from the Premier League. While it may not show through in the Smarterscout data, Godfrey is a decent long passer and plays in a Norwich team whose approach to playing out of the back isn’t a million miles away from what City try to do.

Elias Cobbaut plays for Vincent Kompany’s Anderlecht and with the former City captain at the helm, City are likely to get as honest a scouting assessment as possible as to whether Cobbaut would be a good fit or not. With the ball at his feet, Cobbaut is an able dribbler and progressive passer, it’ll be the off-the-ball actions that determine the quality of the fit.

Dayot Upamecano, a “man-mountain range” in the words of Rapha Honigstein, rounds off the left centre-back shortlist. Upamecano is a very active defender, who is more than comfortable carrying the ball out from the back and is the best individual tackler on the list. Upamecano is predominantly right-footed, so could also provide cover on the right side of defence, too.

---

Away from the defence, the rest of the squad is relatively well-stocked, apart from at left wing. With the aforementioned Sane transfer to Bayern in the pipeline, a proven replacement is required to contribute minutes and, more importantly, goals. Again, this shortlist is a mix of players that are well known, those that have some following, and a couple of wildcards.

The metrics in the table below relate mostly to scoring and getting into dangerous positions from the wing. The attack rating is powered by a player’s contributions to goalscoring, either through getting into good positions to score goals themselves, creating chances for others, or getting the ball into threatening positions. The dribble rating rewards players for beating more difficult-to-beat opponents, giving credit to those who beat the odd man in a game but impacts those who are consistently taking on and beating poor one-vs-one tacklers.

Despite mainly being deployed on the right wing, Serge Gnabry has featured on the left to equally deadly effect — just ask Chelsea and Spurs in the Champions League this season. Gnabry’s pretty much good at everything that’s required from Guardiola and at 24, is only going to get better. City are among the teams to believe swap deals will be prominent this summer and they could do worse than swap him for Sane. He’s also homegrown as he came through at Arsenal.

Despite also playing fewer minutes at left wing compared to his primary position as an attacking midfielder, Jack Grealish features due to his great attack rating. Without Grealish, Villa would no doubt be in a tougher position than the one they currently find themselves in. His shooting volume and ability to receive in the box is likely driven by team effects (i.e. Villa not being a great attacking side) and the bigger question marks are whether he’s a player who needs complete freedom to thrive, or if he can play in a well-regimented tactical system. Even if he’s not an option on the wing, he could bolster the free 8 roles.

Marcus Thuram is shining at Monchengladbach and, despite also mainly being a striker, performs well on the wing. His dribble rating of 98 is the best of all players on the shortlist, and eight goals and eight assists in the Bundesliga show a player capable of both creating and scoring, another requirement of a left winger for City.

Mikel Oyarzabal and Leon Bailey are both names who’ve been publicly linked to the club in recent months. The former’s numbers don’t exactly pop off the page but he looks like a solid contributor for Real Sociedad, and sources close to the player indicated last summer that he was primed to move to City if Sane’s move to Bayern had gone through. Bailey’s season has been blighted by injuries but in limited minutes, his underlying numbers look solid. He’s another whose durability should be questioned — starting just half of the games on offer in the last three Bundesliga seasons. He was high on City’s shortlist when they eventually plumped for Mahrez in 2018 but his chance may have passed.

Harvey Barnes is a bit of a wildcard and might not be the first name on everyone’s lips but he shares a lot of similarities with Sane. For a start, Barnes is rapid, both with and without the ball. Looking at his Smarterscout ratings, he’s potentially a bit of an underrated contributor to Leicester’s attack from the left wing and has contributed six goals and six assists so far this season. Predominantly right-footed, Barnes would be comfortable cutting inside, like City’s forwards so often do, although teams have managed to frustrate Sterling this season.

Cody Gakpo is a younger option again. Similar to Barnes, he has seven goals and six assists, but in fewer minutes, giving him a higher goal contribution per 90 minutes played. This is his first full season at PSV but given the difference in strength of the leagues, it might be too much of a step up to contribute a lot in season one — but expect to see Gakpo at a top European side before long.