Chelsea Transfers

[LAM09 6,879]

  On 03/08/2024 at 00:49, DDA said:

Youre underestimating Osimhen mate. You really are.

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It's a recurring theme. I'd hate for him to end up at another PL club, seeing as he & his family are big Chelsea fans; however, the silver lining would be him delivering in the PL & silencing those who continue to doubt him.

I get that they are completely different players, but it's similar to the pass-away comments Salah got before joining Liverpool. He's arguably been the best player in the league over the course of that time.

[ZAPHOD2319 4,598]

 

[TheHulk 2,046]

If we end up getting this shit and I see another Chelsea fan defending these dumb owners will go insane.

[Pizy 18,552]

  On 03/08/2024 at 19:10, TheHulk said:

If we end up getting this shit and I see another Chelsea fan defending these dumb owners will go insane.

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Even I won’t defend them if we spunk some ridiculous sum on this guy.

Really don’t understand why we aren’t doing the blindingly obvious Lukaku + cash swap for Osimhen even if I might not be super high on him. It’s one of the biggest no brainer deals ever.

[DDA 9,772]

  On 03/08/2024 at 19:10, TheHulk said:

If we end up getting this shit and I see another Chelsea fan defending these dumb owners will go insane.

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You just know its going to happen. Lets hope this lad is as special as they think he is.

[Vesper 29,448]

Victor Osimhen is wanted by Chelsea but struggled last season – so how good is he?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5672120/2024/08/01/victor-osimhen-Chelsea-transfer-napoli-analysis/

 

 

Victor Osimhen, like most strikers in the modern game, is tough to analyse.

He has some delectable traits: a bullet of a right foot, a leap to rival some of this year’s Olympians and a unique flair. However, with it come injury issues, a spotty penalty record (six misses from 20 attempts) and inconsistency.

Last season, we saw more of the latter from Osimhen in a struggling Napoli team that put together a horrendous title defence. After scoring 26 times in 32 Serie A matches in 2022-23, he scored just 15 goals in 25 matches last season. However, Osimhen’s stock has not dropped substantially, with The Athletic reporting this week that Chelsea are in negotiations with Napoli to sign him on a loan deal with an option to buy.

Here, we break down Osimhen’s profile to understand his playing style and whether 2022-23 was merely a flash in the pan.

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Throughout his career, Osimhen’s biggest issue has been availability. He has played more than 27 league games only once in his career and scored 20 or more league goals just once — both in 2022-23.

The Nigerian benefited from the break due to the 2022 World Cup that season, scoring 17 of his 26 league goals in 21 matches after the tournament. He scored eight times in his 12 league appearances after the turn of the year last season and nine in 16 games in 2021-22.

The drop in Osimhen’s final product from 2022-23 can be attributed to issues on both player and system fronts. His shots per 90 minutes in Serie A fell to 3.9 (from 4.6), as did his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 (down to 0.5 from 0.7), while his npxG overperformance of 0.18 per 90 fell to a more sustainable 0.03.

Like his team, he was less proficient in the air, winning just 44 per cent of his aerial duels (down from 55 per cent). Osimhen was also required to play further away from the penalty area, with increases in mid-third touches (8.5 from 7.9) and drops in touches in the final third (15.4 from 18.8) and penalty area (6.9 from 8.1) per 90, which took him away from his bread and butter as a threat in the box.

A comparison of his smarterscout graphs, which give players a series of ratings from zero and 99 on various metrics, from the last two seasons reflects those statistics. But it also indicates that he suffered a drop in aspects such as link-up play, defensive intensity, and ball retention. The mid-season Africa Cup of Nations and nagging fitness issues were also factors.

A deeper dive into the statistics supports the argument that 2022-23 was an overperformance in more ways than just the ones mentioned above.

In 2022-23, Osimhen ended only 8.5 per cent of his league outings with less than 0.5 expected goals. His three other years in Serie A paint a vastly different picture as he did the same in 62.5 per cent of games in 2020-21, 52 per cent in 2021-22 and 44 per cent in 2023-24.

This has team elements to it, concerning the quality of chances Napoli created. However, Osimhen is a high-volume shooter and some of his shooting stats indicate that he contributed to his regression as well.

Osimhen recorded more than three shots in 56 per cent of his league games in 2022-23, with that number falling to 44 per cent last season. He also had six Serie A games without a shot on target in 2023-24, the same as in 2022-23, in seven matches fewer. This was, however, an improvement on his previous two seasons (20 games with no shot on target out of 51).

The 2022-23 season also saw him achieve a weirdly perfect balance; he underperformed and overperformed in comparison to his xG in 16 league games apiece. In his three other seasons in Napoli, he underperformed in comparison to his xG in 40 out of 67 league games, including in 13 of 25 league games last season.

A look at his shot evolution map from 2020-21 to 2023-24 also provides interesting insights. Osimhen was often in the perfect position for a striker in 2022-23 to maximise his chances of scoring, while also occasionally netting from narrow angles. His runs in behind were timed perfectly, while his ability to peel away from his marker was unchallenged.

However, last season, defences managed him better and forced him wider to the right, taking their chances. Osimhen’s method to remedy this was to try and punish them anyway, but as the angles got narrower, he often cut a frustrated figure as his shots were blocked, drifted wide of the far post, or sailed high.

The timing of his runs was also off; he was caught offside 1.6 times per 90 in the league last season, compared to 1.1 in 2022-23. When he did break through, Osimhen failed to put away chances, such as the one below against Frosinone.

Contrast this with the goal below against Sassuolo in 2022-23, and his composure in a comparable situation stands out.

 

Osimhen’s lack of adaptability extended to peeling away from defenders and attacking open space, which he did extremely well in 2022-23, such as in the goal below against Sampdoria from a move he starts. Last season, he often operated between the centre-backs, who marked him much more closely, while Napoli’s crossing quality also dipped.

As the frustrations mounted on and off the field, thanks to Napoli’s infamous TikTok clips, Osimhen also seemed to lose focus. He missed two out of the five penalties he took in the league last season, while also collecting more cards (six yellow, one red) than in 2022-23 (four and zero).

The timing of his headers worsened too. In 2022-23, he often waited for the ball to get closer before starting his jump, allowing him to power it low and hard, as seen in the clips below…

… unlike 2023-24, where his jumps were often a millisecond too early or late, resulting in loopy or misdirected shots.

 

Lastly, Osimhen’s passing, which remains a work in progress, also seemed to marginally regress. He completed only 69 per cent of his 14.0 attempts per 90 in the league in 2022-23, with that falling to 67 per cent on 13.1 attempts last season. His key passes per 90 fell from 1.2 to 1.0, while his shot-creating actions from live-ball passes dropped from 1.9 per 90 to 1.3.

There are caveats, though…

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Osimhen’s struggles last season were not down to him alone. Losing Luciano Spalletti, renowned for making good strikers great, was a major blow. Napoli’s title-winning campaign was built as much on attack (league-best 77 goals scored) as on defence (league-best 28 goals conceded) and selling Kim Min-jae to Bayern Munich hurt them.

As the table below shows, Napoli regressed in attack.

There was also a visible drop in defensive intensity. Their aerial duel success rate (55 per cent in 2022-23 to 49 per cent in 2023-24), recoveries (53.3 to 44.9 per 90) and interceptions (7.6 to 6.3 per 90) in the league fell. Napoli were less compact and simply did not seem to have the same desire and determination to close down spaces, aspects that served as their foundations in 2022-23.

In attack, Serie A defences found a dimmer switch for the electric Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, leading to a fall in goal involvements (25 in 2022-23 to 19 in 2023-24). Kvaratskhelia was still one of Napoli’s best players but was made to work much harder throughout the campaign, scoring just once in his final eight league games.

In midfield, Andre-Frank Anguissa was not the same two-way force he was in 2022-23, playing 300 fewer minutes in the league and recording just two assists and no goals (down from three goals and five assists in 2022-23).

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Where does that leave us?

Osimhen is a prototype centre-forward in many ways. He is a high-volume shooter, adept presser, and aerial threat with pace to burn and the ability to effectively lead a press. However, last season was a clearer reflection of him as a player than 2022-23.

At 25, Osimhen is a few years from the typical peak age for a striker, which suggests there are layers to his game he either hasn’t unlocked or simply hasn’t shown regularly enough.

He has yet to entirely exit the “on his day” and “deadly when fit” bubbles that we have come to see far too often in football.

[Vesper 29,448]

Chelsea working to ‘find solution’ to Conor Gallagher’s uncertain future – Enzo Maresca

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5677295/2024/08/02/conor-gallagher-Chelsea-maresca/

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca says the club are working with Conor Gallagher to “find a solution” to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the midfielder’s future at Stamford Bridge.

The Athletic reported earlier this week that Gallagher, whose current deal expires next summer, had rejected a second contract offer from the south west London club which would have made put him on wages comparable to Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez.

Speaking before Chelsea’s pre-season match against Manchester City in Columbus, Ohio, Maresca said: “The only thing I can say is I know he is in contact with the club to find a solution.

“The club offered him a new contract. But this is, at the moment, the only news I received.”

Chelsea are determined to avoid a repeat of the Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen situation in 2022 when both players were able to leave as free agents after their contracts expired.

GO DEEPER

Why Gallagher is nearing Chelsea exit: Shorter contract offers and concerns over free move

It has been made clear to Gallagher that the club will do everything to protect its financial interests with him having a year left on his contract, with the player interpreting this to mean that he will not be considered a first teamer when he rejoins the squad at Cobham next week.

Atletico Madrid have had a bid in the region of £40million accepted for the midfielder.

Gallagher was given an extended break following his Euro 2024 exploits, along with England team-mate Cole Palmer and Spain’s Marc Cucurella.

Asked whether Gallagher would be free to join first-team training upon his return to Cobham, Maresca said: “At the moment, there is not any update on that.

“In football, every summer, different clubs have some problems with some players and then at the end, they find a solution and everyone is happy. Hopefully the same can happen in this situation.”

Chelsea play Real Madrid on Wednesday evening before concluding their tour against Italian champions Inter Milan on Saturday, August 11.

They begin the new Premier League campaign against Manchester City on August 18.

[robsblubot 3,595]

Raises questions about last season. 👆

Having a year left in contracts shifts the power towards players and agents.

[LAM09 6,879]

  On 03/08/2024 at 19:48, DDA said:

You just know its going to happen. Lets hope this lad is as special as they think he is.

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The club held back on going in all for Endrick despite having him visit the club. If they don't do the same now, it will be another masterstroke from them.

His sole start at the Olympics was dire, btw.

[Vytis33 1,191]

 

[King Kante 1,563]

  On 02/08/2024 at 19:34, Wise Old Man said:

Wasn’t he (caicedo) a kind of utility workhorse guy for de Zerbi who had him at cb and on the flanks sometimes , de zerbis system was similar. Caicedo is going to have to show much better ball control and passing to avoid being a complete liability 

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Yep. Yet some people on here talk about him as if he was some sort of midfield General for Brighton. Last season he showed for 75% of it his passing was poor, he then went and improved that to above average for 8 games and people started going on about him being 'excellent' in the final two months of the season. 

Guy is essentially a £130m Gallagher. 

Edited August 3, 2024 by King Kante

[Reddish-Blue 2,428]

  On 03/08/2024 at 23:44, King Kante said:

Guy is essentially a £130m Gallagher. 

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That's interesting, considering Arteta was happy to buy him for 75-80 million (when he had that clause at Brighton), then Klopp wanted him badly for 100+ million...

Compare that to Gallagher who has had three serious offers: Everton, Villa and now Atletico...

[Reddish-Blue 2,428]

  On 03/08/2024 at 23:06, LAM09 said:

The club held back on going in all for Endrick despite having him visit the club. If they don't do the same now, it will be another masterstroke from them.

His sole start at the Olympics was dire, btw.

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Victor is right there and Conte wants Lukaku...surely the club can finally sort it out and give the likes of Palmer/Nkunku a proper 9 up front. 

[LAM09 6,879]

  On 04/08/2024 at 00:22, Reddish-Blue said:

Victor is right there and Conte wants Lukaku...surely the club can finally sort it out and give the likes of Palmer/Nkunku a proper 9 up front. 

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It seems unlikely despite everything seemingly being perfect for both parties. Age, wage, or whatever other excuse the board decides to.

[DDA 9,772]

Forget strikers, we need proper CBs. Our current defence is extremely worrying.

[Strike 7,314]

  On 03/08/2024 at 19:15, Pizy said:

Even I won’t defend them if we spunk some ridiculous sum on this guy.

Really don’t understand why we aren’t doing the blindingly obvious Lukaku + cash swap for Osimhen even if I might not be super high on him. It’s one of the biggest no brainer deals ever.

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Because we can't afford a permanent deal. Osimhen becomes an option if he agrees to a loan late in the window -via Fabrizio

[LAM09 6,879]

  On 04/08/2024 at 00:57, DDA said:

Forget strikers, we need proper CBs. Our current defence is extremely worrying.

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There's no chance of that happening with the number of CB's currently on our books. If two leave (Trev, Badi/Diasi), things might be different.

  On 04/08/2024 at 01:21, Strike said:

Because we can't afford a permanent deal. Osimhen becomes an option if he agrees to a loan late in the window -via Fabrizio

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Do we have some unknown constraints or just the board unwilling to budge?

Edited August 4, 2024 by LAM09

[Strike 7,314]

  On 04/08/2024 at 01:24, LAM09 said:

There's no chance of that happening with the number of CB's currently on our books. If two leave (Trev, Badi/Diasi), things might be different.

Do we have some unknown constraints or just the board unwilling to budge?

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Wage structure + PSR calculations. Can't spend high up-front