Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 31,037]

The Next in Atleti’s Long Line of Midfield Gems: Pablo Barrios 

https://breakingthelines.com/player-analysis/the-next-in-atletis-long-line-of-midfield-gems-pablo-barrios/

La Liga has no shortage of talented young midfielders with immense potential. I’m sure several spring to mind immediately – Jude Bellingham, Martin Zubimendi, Pedri, Eduardo Camavinga, Gavi… the list goes on and on. But there’s one man that deserves equal recognition with the others for his current abilities and seriously world-class potential: Pablo Barrios.

My theory for why he doesn’t receive the same buzz as the others revolves around the identity of the team he plays for. Atlético Madrid, especially during their time with Diego Simeone at the helm, is not known for flashy or aesthetic football. As such, players do not get the same publicity as other teams in La Liga, especially compared to their cross-town rivals. Funny enough, that was almost Barrios’ path.

When he was five, he started his career with local Madrid youth team Escuela Deportiva Moratalaz. From there, he was noticed by Real Madrid scouts and joined La Fábrica in 2011. However, in 2017, he moved to the east side of the Spanish capital and signed with Atlético Madrid on a free transfer. Since then, he moved up the ranks of the youth system until he eventually broke through to the first team in 2022.

Part of the reason Barrios broke through into the first team at such a young age, in addition to his talent of course, is because he possesses many traits Diego Simeone values in a midfielder. Hard-working, tough, no-nonsense, happy to put a foot in, you get the picture. If you’ve never watched Pablo closely, but you have seen Saul Niguez, Koke, Marcos Llorrente, etc., then you’ll understand the profile of the player. However, he has some additional technical abilities in his profile not usually seen in the traditional rugged Atleti side, which I would like to explore with you.

The best way to understand a player’s profile (in my opinion, anyways) is to look at select underlying statistics. You might be thinking of stats like xG but it (and many others) are highly situational and influenced heavily by the team around the player, especially on a game-to-game basis. I prefer to distill it down to eight statistics, which can be broken down into two buckets: where the player touches the ball, and how they progress the ball in possession. Everything else is just noise.

Within the possession bucket, I look at the total volume of touches, then the number of touches in each of the defensive, midfield, and attacking thirds of the field. For progression, I look at the total volume of progressive actions, then at the per 90 count of progressive carries, passes, and receptions. It may seem over-simplified, but it really helps you quickly understand how the player operates during the vast majority of the game that isn’t shown in YouTube highlights. 

The graph I shared displays Barrios’ percentile rank among all midfielders with at least eight 90’s in a La Liga season, from the ‘21/22 season through right now. A couple observations we can make about his evolution from last season to this: he’s migrating further back on the pitch in possession, seeing more of the ball in the defensive third and much less in the attacking third. With that, his total progressive actions have declined, but his progressive carries have actually increased. 

This is quite an uncommon occurrence. Progressive carries (and all other dribbling stats in general) are highly correlated with players being further up the pitch. Typically, players that make a defensive shift like Barrios will see their ball carrying go down, but their progressive passing figures increase. Let’s explore this anomaly a bit further by analyzing Barrios’ dribbling statistics:

Using the same sample group of 485 La Liga midfielders to have logged 720 minutes or more in a league season from 2021 to now, I’ve plotted their take on attempts per 90 minutes on the X axis and their take on success rate on the Y. The dotted lines illustrate one standard deviation above the median number, providing a way to visualize players with exceptional volume (to the right) or exceptional effectiveness (above). 

You’ll notice that basically nobody rates as exceptional in both aspects. This is to be expected – the higher volume of take ons a player attempts, the lower the success rate. I have many theories for why this is the case, but it bears itself out across every sample group I have ever studied. For our man in question, you’ll see he has attempted fewer take ons this season than last, but has seen a dramatic jump in effectiveness. It took me a while to wrap my head around this, as I expected the opposite; Pablo’s progressive carries per 90 minutes rose this season. Why have his dribble take ons decreased?

Then, it hit me. Opta has a bit of a complicated definition for a progressive carry, but it effectively boils down to any carry that advances the ball 10 yards or more to the opponents goal line from the furthest point forward of any pass within the past 6 before the carry. Only carries ending in the opposition’s half of the pitch count, and any carry that ends in the opposition’s 18 yard box, regardless of distance covered, is a progressive carry. In other words: carries that move the ball forward, excluding carries in less threatening parts of the pitch. 

With Barrios’ move further toward Atleti’s defensive half when in possession, he’s been afforded the opportunity to carry the ball forward more into open areas of the pitch, rather than having to pick out a pass or take on a player during the carry. As well, when he does take on players off the dribble, he has become better at it (and likely more selective), hence the big jump in effectiveness. In fact, Barrios’ 77.5% take on success rate is the highest on Atlético Madrid in both of the past two seasons.

Given the above observations, I feel pretty confident that despite the overall decline in progressive actions from last season to this one, Pablo Barrios is becoming a more effective progressor of the ball with his new, deeper positioning. For what it’s worth, even though his progressive passes/90 has dropped from 6.38 to 5.55, his progressive passing distance is actually up slightly this year, so again, what he’s lost in volume he’s making up for in effectiveness.

The other side of the coin to consider when a player becomes more defensive minded: does their defensive activity match the positional shift? While defenders (especially center backs) can be hit or miss in terms of volume of defensive actions, the best ones always have high effectiveness metrics (aerial duel win rate, tackle success rate, etc.). This is not the case for midfielders, however, as volume of defensive actions is king. Let’s take a look at Barrios’ numbers over the past two seasons.

His blocks/90 has gone down slightly, but everything else is up compared to where he was last year. Challenges (the defensive action equivalent to take ons) and interceptions are two of the most important stats in my eyes for a midfielder, as they show the highest level of defensive awareness. And Barrios has made his biggest strides in these categories. 

Tackles/90 minutes was the one I was surprised to see only increase slightly, as this is the one I have observed seeing the biggest increase for midfielders taking on more defensive responsibilities (a subjective observation – not something I’ve actually studied). So, let’s take a closer look at the zones in which Barrios’ is winning his tackles.

If you’ll remember back to the initial radar chart I shared, he’s seen a big increase in defensive area touches, slight decrease in the midfield, and big drop in the attacking third. This bears itself out in the tackle attempts as well: a big increase in the defensive third and  huge decline in the attacking third. Curiously, though, he’s winning more in the midfield as well, which is a sign that his effectiveness is improving overall.

I previously compared Barrios to the classic Atleti midfielders, and while his tenacity and mentality aligns, his playstyle really does not. So – who might you have seen that I can most accurately compare Pablo to? Using my “Positioning and Progression in Possession” criteria, I found two very intriguing players. The first: Leon Goretzka.

Goretzka’s ‘22/23 campaign, to be specific. He rated as the most accurate comparison to Barrios’ ‘23/24 season marks. While the German sees more of the ball in the attacking third, their progression marks are nearly identical. They’re both taller midfielders (Barrios at 6’0”, Goretzka at 6’2”), and have a reputation for being both physical, yet refined on the ball.

My model does not use these as inputs, just additional similarities. Thinking about early career Leon Goretzka playing under a manager like Simeone gave me chills, but that might be what we get with Barrios. The other comparison? Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa.

The Cameroonian’s ‘21/22 campaign rated as the closest comp to the ‘22/23 version of Barrios, and the 8th closest to his ‘23/24 numbers, so it is probably the most accurate comparison. Thinking about it further – it makes total sense. Zambo Anguissa is a defensive-oriented, box-to-box midfielder with a unique willingness to start counters and progress the ball with his carrying rather than passing. This description is exactly what I hope to have detailed about Pablo Barrios and his playstyle to this point. Given this was Anguissa’s age 25 season profile, and Atleti’s man is still only 20 years old, it is a very promising sign for Barrios’ future prospects.

If you take anything away from this piece, I’d like for you to understand that while Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid have a reputation for midfield bulldogs, Pablo Barrios is not that. He does check the box for the defensive effort level needed to play for the Argentine, but he offers an element of technical ability and effectiveness in ball carrying not often seen at the Wanda Metropolitano. He’s a really exciting prospect, he’s a really good player already, and any conversation involving the dearth of young midfield talent in La Liga is incomplete without mentioning the name Pablo Barrios.

[Vesper 31,037]

 

[NikkiCFC 8,516]

13 hours ago, Thor said:

Anyone explain this to me? 

How are we able to spend so much where as these teams can't? 

Is it due to us historically having these sums covered? And our outgoings over all these years? And then I assume the wage thing comes into play - because a lot of people are citing that is the reason Villa is on there. 

Maybe our board is forward thinking and not getting enough credit with this wage reduction stuff?

 

First we did it with long contracts to new players. Can't do that anymore. Now we sell academy players for pure profit. And don't forget...

[LAM09 7,085]

11 minutes ago, Vesper said:

 

A tidy bit of business from Newcastle considering he never played a game for them. 

[Vesper 31,037]

Every UK CMF and DMF 25yo and under who is valued over 5m euros

     

1	Kobbie Mainoo Central Midfield	19			€50.00m
2	Conor Gallagher Central Midfield	24			€50.00m

3	Curtis Jones Central Midfield	23			€35.00m
4	Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Central Midfield	25			€30.00m
5	Joe Willock Central Midfield	24			€30.00m
6	Lewis Miley Central Midfield	18			€22.00m
7	Alex Scott Central Midfield	20			€20.00m
8	Archie Gray Central Midfield	18			€18.00m
9	Carney Chukwuemeka Central Midfield	20			€15.00m
10	James McAtee Central Midfield	21			€12.00m
11	Tommy Doyle Central Midfield	22			€10.00m
12	Josh Dasilva Central Midfield	25			€10.00m
13	Charlie Patino Central Midfield	20			€9.00m
14	Josh Eccles Central Midfield	24			€7.00m

 

1	Declan Rice Defensive Midfield	25			€120.00m
2	Adam Wharton Defensive Midfield	20			€30.00m
3	James Garner Defensive Midfield	23			€22.00m
4	Jack Hinshelwood Defensive Midfield	19			€16.00m
5	Oliver Skipp Defensive Midfield	23			€15.00m
6	Flynn Downes Defensive Midfield	25			€9.00m
7	Tyler Morton Defensive Midfield	21			€8.00m
8	Hayden Hackney Defensive Midfield	22			€7.00m

 

1

Elliot Anderson Central Midfield

21

€15.00m

 

1

Billy Gilmour Defensive Midfield

23

€18.00m

 

1

Jordan James Central Midfield

19

€5.50m

 

1

Ethan Ampadu Defensive Midfield

23

€16.00m

 

1

Shea Charles Defensive Midfield

20

€10.00m

 

[Blue Armour 4,710]

4 hours ago, Vesper said:

Chelsea and Dewsbury-Hall: First, why? Second, why? Actually, it makes sense

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5600965/2024/06/29/Chelsea-kiernan-dewsbury-hall-maresca/

Chelsea’s new head coach Enzo Maresca officially starts work on July 1 and if things go according to plan, he will soon have his best player from former club Leicester City joining him.

As The Athletic revealed on Friday, Chelsea have made an offer to Leicester for midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. His displays under Maresca for Leicester in the Championship last season led to him being voted the club’s player of the year and players’ player of the year (and The Athletic’s Championship player of the season).

Chelsea supporters, not for the first time in this window, appear to be a little underwhelmed. Nothing has been agreed yet and the 25-year-old could end up staying at Leicester, but given Chelsea have so many midfielders in the squad already, it is still worth discussing why they are making such a move.

This has been under consideration for weeks and is not a last-minute reaction to Brighton & Hove Albion’s attempts to acquire Dewsbury-Hall themselves this week. Chelsea were under the impression Leicester would listen to offers but could not act straight away due to the amount of squad planning — ins and outs — being earmarked this summer. They have already been busy on this front. Meanwhile, Maresca needed to be involved in these discussions but as he was not in the building yet, it provided a bit of a complication to work around.

It is no surprise Maresca is on board with this pursuit, but Chelsea have not just decided to go along with it to keep the Italian happy. Dewsbury-Hall fits the system Maresca likes to use and provides something different to what they have in the squad because he is a left-footed midfielder.

His potential arrival has led to more speculation that a final decision on Conor Gallagher’s future has been made and he will definitely be sold. That is not the case and Chelsea have not ruled out offering an extension to the England international’s contract, which has just 12 months left to run. Gallagher is regarded as more of a defensive/box-to-box midfielder, whereas Dewsbury-Hall is being lined up to play further forward as an attacking midfielder.

Players could go the other way as part of an exchange or in standalone deals. Leicester have already registered their interest in a few Chelsea players. They need a striker and a replacement for Dewsbury-Hall if he heads to Stamford Bridge. David Datro Fofana and Cesare Casadei, who was on loan at Leicester for the first half of last season, are two individuals that Chelsea would be prepared to see go in the opposite direction. Albania forward Armando Broja is up for sale but is not involved.

While he may not boast the same status as some of his potential new team-mates, Dewsbury-Hall will have quite an advantage over them should he be in place for the start of pre-season training because he knows what Maresca demands and how the Italian wants to operate. A key aspect of how Maresca works is that he is completely wedded to his method of play and the emphasis in Chelsea’s recruitment process will be to sign players that fit into it, rather than for Marseca to find a system that fits the players.

Judging from Maresca’s approach at Leicester, some players already at Chelsea will have to adjust their games and learn new disciplines. Those who fail to adjust to Maresca’s vision will quickly find themselves surplus to requirements, either on their way out of the club or sidelined with little opportunity to contribute. For example, without the need for conventional full-backs, Victor Kristiansen and Luke Thomas were moved out on loan last season, and Harry Souttar barely featured for Leicester because his ability on the ball playing out from the back was not deemed to be of the standard required.

In contrast, full-back Ricardo Pereira adapted to move into midfield when the team were in possession, and defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi was turned into an attacking midfielder. Even Jamie Vardy altered his game to move from the striker playing on the shoulder of the final defender to dropping deeper and linking play to allow midfielders to run in behind him.

This was where Dewsbury-Hall played a prominent role for the Championship winners and will surely do so for Chelsea.

In Maresca’s plan, the high central midfielders play key roles. With the holding midfielder and inside full-back anchoring in front of a back three, it is up to the central midfielders to play in between the lines and link the attack with the wide players and the lone striker. Under Maresca, Chelsea will attack with a five and defend with five.

At Leicester, Dewsbury-Hall was encouraged to get into the box, to contribute goals and assists, while Ndidi offered a little more defensive insurance if the attack broke down and the opposition countered. It paid off. Dewsbury-Hall scored or assisted 29 per cent of Leicester’s 89 goals as they clinched automatic promotion to the Premier League. He scored 12 times, a target that was part of a bet with Maresca. His prize? A dinner paid for by the Italian.

Dewsbury-Hall’s importance was so profound that he featured in all but four games in all competitions, starting 43 of Leicester’s 53 games. When he did not play, Leicester struggled to have the same penetration into the box. Dewsbury-Hall will be a big loss to new manager Steve Cooper’s squad if he is gone for good.

“Since we started, Kiernan has probably improved the most,” Maresca said in November having previously told Dewsbury-Hall to cut down his long-range shooting. “At the beginning, he was full of responsibility because he’s from the academy and after relegation. After the first international break, he calmed down, and now if you’re watching the game as a fan, it’s a pleasure to watch Kiernan and see how calm he is.”

There was a visible change in Dewsbury-Hall during the campaign, a growing maturity in his game compared to his last season in the Premier League, when he only contributed two goals and two assists in 28 starts. “He is fantastic with the ball and he knows when to attack and what the team needs,” Maresca added. “He is so dangerous near the box, and has the quality to score or assist from anywhere.”

Maresca’s philosophy brought out the best in Dewsbury-Hall last season. The midfielder’s ambition is to become an England international and a move to Chelsea will be seen as an opportunity to establish himself as a top Premier League player and a contender for a call-up.

Dewsbury-Hall has been a late bloomer. He joined the Leicester academy when he was eight and didn’t make his first-team debut until four years ago. But he made significant progress during loan spells with Blackpool and Luton Town before stepping up at Leicester. Now he is looking to make the step up again at Chelsea and Maresca will believe he is more than capable of taking his game to the next level.

GO DEEPER

Does Enzo Maresca meet Chelsea's seven criteria for their ideal manager?

It makes a lot of sense for me. The lack of an experienced CM in the middle of the park was why our games felt so unbalanced last season. Easy wins turning into draws or defeats.

Adding a CM with the right profile to play in that 433 will bring out the best in Enzo & Caicedo next season., IMO.

Edited June 30, 2024 by Blue Armour

[ZAPHOD2319 4,942]

 

[robsblubot 3,595]

Very much like adding a CM, and Kiernan may have the manager's trust, so it makes sense. I understand we don't have Europe, but I just dislike the idea of having players with pretty much guaranteed spots in the starting XI however well they play; gotta have some competition within the team. That does not only improve match performance, but training too.

I'm relaly not a fan of Isak -- he can finish, but he's just too slow for the modern game IMO. For me Jackson is the better footballer even today.

[Pizy 19,249]

What could be so difficult in the Dewsbury Hall negotiations that’s taking this long, I wonder? Not like he’s some £80m transfer with loads of potential add ons. This felt like it would be an easy, straightforward deal when Ornstein first reported it.
 

Player so keen on the move that he blew up the very advanced swap deal Leicester had with Brighton (medicals already in progress apparently), Leicester badly need to sell to comply with PSR, and his transfer fee by today’s standards is small at only £30-35m. Are we really haggling so badly over such a small fee?

I want this signing pretty badly now. Think he’ll be a big player for us under Maresca.

[nyikolajevics 2,829]

37 minutes ago, Pizy said:

What could be so difficult in the Dewsbury Hall negotiations that’s taking this long, I wonder? Not like he’s some £80m transfer with loads of potential add ons.

Hold my Bud Light!

 

[mkh 748]

Michael Olise's move to FC Bayern seemed to be a done deal. Now it threatens to fail because of a complicated clause.

Numerous German and English media have reported in recent days that Michael Olise's move to FC Bayern is a "done deal".

The 22-year-old has agreed a five-year contract with the German record champions and the Munich club have utilised the release clause in the winger's contract with Crystal Palace.

However, the transfer has not yet been officially announced. In addition, Olise has not yet completed the obligatory medical check. 

As the British transfer insider Alan Nixon reports, the Frenchman has not received clearance from Palace to complete the medical check.

Michael Olise's transfer to FC Bayern is proving more difficult than initially assumed.

Bayern are shocked by Olise's exit clause.

Nixon, there are complications with the attacker's release clause.

According to the report, Bayern are "shocked by the terms of the clause".

information from Nixon, those responsible in Munich assumed that the original transfer fee of 43 million pounds (approx. 50 million euros) would be enough to finalise the deal.

However, the 50 million euros is said to be merely a sum to open talks between the clubs about an Olise transfer.

The final transfer fee will be just under 50 million pounds, which equates to around 60 million euros.

 

Edited June 30, 2024 by mkh

[ZAPHOD2319 4,942]

 

[Mário César 1,475]

8 minutes ago, mkh said:

Michael Olise's move to FC Bayern seemed to be a done deal. Now it threatens to fail because of a complicated clause.

Numerous German and English media have reported in recent days that Michael Olise's move to FC Bayern is a "done deal".

The 22-year-old has agreed a five-year contract with the German record champions and the Munich club have utilised the release clause in the winger's contract with Crystal Palace.

However, the transfer has not yet been officially announced. In addition, Olise has not yet completed the obligatory medical check. 

As the British transfer insider Alan Nixon reports, the Frenchman has not received clearance from Palace to complete the medical check.

Michael Olise's transfer to FC Bayern is proving more difficult than initially assumed.

Bayern are shocked by Olise's exit clause.

Nixon, there are complications with the attacker's release clause.

According to the report, Bayern are "shocked by the terms of the clause".

information from Nixon, those responsible in Munich assumed that the original transfer fee of 43 million pounds (approx. 50 million euros) would be enough to finalise the deal.

However, the 50 million euros is said to be merely a sum to open talks between the clubs about an Olise transfer.

The final transfer fee will be just under 50 million pounds, which equates to around 60 million euros.

 

sometimes I wonder if we are talking about messi or about olise

[mkh 748]

Breaking News!!!!

Understand Chelsea and Leicester City have reached an agreement in principle for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. There are still some details to finalise.

via@NathanGissing

[ZAPHOD2319 4,942]

 

[Vytis33 1,373]

 

[Pizy 19,249]

If João Cancelo were a few years younger he’d probably be a good, cheap signing who can play that inverted fullback role Maresca loves. But he’s 30 so that’s obviously a no-go.

[ZAPHOD2319 4,942]

 

[Mário César 1,475]

6 minutes ago, Pizy said:

If João Cancelo were a few years younger he’d probably be a good, cheap signing who can play that inverted fullback role Maresca loves. But he’s 30 so that’s obviously a no-go.

even now he would be a nice option, but without ucl it is impossible 

[mkh 748]

Chelsea reach agreement with Leicester to sign Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Fee £30m; in line with other offers for 25yo #LCFC midfielder. Set to complete medical today + sign contract until 2030. Seen as perfect fit for style #CFC want to play @TheAthleticFC