Chelsea Transfers

[OhForAGreavsie 6,128]

1 hour ago, Pizy said:

So this could still continue to be an ugly situation if Benfica dig their heels in. 😒

We have to hope face to face negotiations tomorrow can soften their stance.

On the face of it, the fact that there are negotiations, is already a softening from their public position. We have to remember that one of the principal, if not the principal, audience for Rui Costa public statements is Benfica fans. What he says publicly, or perhaps the way he says it, might not be the whole truth about his position.

Ultimately Benfica know how much it would cost Chelsea, including add-ons, to trigger the buyout clause. If Chelsea say they are willing to do that, then it makes sense for Benfica to come to the table and try to negotiate some of that extra money for themselves as part of an ordinary transfer, rather than watch that extra cash disappear in taxes which serves neither Club's purposes. This is guesswork of course, but it sounds reasonable to me and fits with the report the we are offering a figure above the buyout clause.

Edited January 30, 2023 by OhForAGreavsie

[Strike 7,801]

4 hours ago, Pizy said:

So this could still continue to be an ugly situation if Benfica dig their heels in. 😒

We have to hope face to face negotiations tomorrow can soften their stance.

Benfica have to consider a bid of this size - despite their public position. There is a good chance no one comes in with a 100m bid for Enzo in the summer or ever again.

Todd and Eghbali seem like they want to bring in new signings before the amortisation rules change - tie Enzo down to a 7.5 + 1 year like Mudryk

[bigbluewillie 1,983]

Well! the Telegraph is reporting this, via BBC Sport

Chelsea have reopened talks with Benfica about trying to sign Argentina midfielder Enzo Fernández, 22, before the transfer window closes on Tuesday. (Telegraph - subscription required)

 

 

[Reddish-Blue 2,683]

1 hour ago, Strike said:

Benfica have to consider a bid of this size - despite their public position. There is a good chance no one comes in with a 100m bid for Enzo in the summer or ever again.

Todd and Eghbali seem like they want to bring in new signings before the amortisation rules change - tie Enzo down to a 7.5 + 1 year like Mudryk

I would have thought Enzo would be next choice in the list for whichever club misses out on Bellingham. 

Enzo will get to pick which club he goes to....if we wait till the summer and our negotiating position would be much worse without the attraction of UCL football next season. 

[Jype 6,398]

7 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

@Jype since you have great knowledge about FFP and how money is amortized, I remember you putting exact numbers for these long contracts and how great for FFP is to sell academy products, can you explain where we would be post summer if next happens:

With Enzo our spending will be around 600m euros just this season. Lets say we buy Felix for 80m in the summer and GK for 20m. So 700m 😂

We got 55,60m last summer and possibly we sell plenty more in the summer like KK, Azpi, Ziyech, Auba, Lukaku... Wont bother how much can we get for them but my main question is since academy players are pure profit what would mean to us if this summer we get for example 20m instalment from Roma for Abraham, 20-30 for Chalobah, RLC 15-20, Ampadu 10-15m, Cho 20-25, Gallagher or Mount 35-50m. So most likely way over 100m pounds maybe even 150m just for our academy boys and with new players signing 7,8,9 years long contracts how would that reflect on the books?

Right now the players we've signed so far amount roughly for a total of £73M a year in amortisation. If we pull off the Enzo signing this window and assume a 7,5 year deal that's another £14M a year in amortisation and in the summer Nkunku should add around £12M to that.

Felix loan is not included in the total figure above but if it were made permanent and we'd sign him for say £80M that means an additional £16M a year amortisation costs which would be higher than Enzo's as the new UEFA rules prevent amortisation longer than five years starting from next summer. You wanted to include a £20M goalkeeper so assuming a five year deal that's £4M amortisation. 

All these added up would mean close to £120M a year in new amortisation costs compared to pre-takeover times, though last summer's departures (most notably Werner, Rüdiger, Alonso, Drinkwater, Barkley, Emerson and the Saul loan) will already have reduced the total increase by a good chunk (£30-35M rough estimate). For Werner and Barkley the club still had to take an FFP hit for this season as these players had some amortisation left that Werner's 20M€ transfer fee and Barkley's free transfer didn't clear but going into next season those should all be totally gone from the books. 

Getting rid off Jorginho, Ziyech, Pulisic, Auba for fees that minimum cover the players remaining amortisation costs (£30M for the last three) would clear around £32M in yearly amortisation, and fees higher than that would be 'profit' in the eyes of the FFP budget. Binning Lukaku and Koulibaly on a permanent deals is probably not going to happen.

Getting an installment paid for Abraham won't affect any FFP calculations, as the money has already been banked in the 21/22 accounts no matter when the actual payment is made.

But yeah, HG player sales are going to be key. At the very least Gallagher, CHO and RLC are all players who should attract plenty of interest and like you said the fees for these players would be 'pure profit' with no previous amortisation costs involved. £60-65M for this lot in the summer and combined with the potential Ziyech, Pulisic etc. sales would already take us close to break-even for the season as far as amortisation costs go, though I have to note that it's only for one year and we'd either have to repeat the same trick with player sales every year or increase revenues by a lot to stay in the good graces of the FFP.

Now with most new players signed on very long term deals that minimize amortisation (and therefore increase remaining book value) repeating the sales every year is probably not going to be possible because the fees we would need to get to 'profit' in FFP terms would probably be too big for what is realistically achievable and selling off academy products for tens of millions every year is probably not too realistic either because from what I understand the 'golden generation' of Cobham has kind of already passed and right now there probably isn't as much good talent coming through as there was in around 2016-2020. Increasing the revenues would be the safest bet if Boehly and Clearlake can pull that off, and having a successful team on the pitch would probably go a long way into doing that and is probably one of the main reasons they've been willing to spend so big.

[TheHulk 2,650]

 

[Costa19 858]

8 minutes ago, TheHulk said:

 

Ooooooornyyyyyy

[NikkiCFC 8,516]

Just imagine in 12 days we go on WH with Enzo, Mudryk and Felix starting 🤤

[Special Juan 28,786]

Massive pressure on Benfica now, the player is pushing and we have met the money that is needed.

It's the structure that is being worked on, this is the last hurdle but one from reading around sounds like it will get done.

[OneMoSalah 9,108]

5 minutes ago, Special Juan said:

Massive pressure on Benfica now, the player is pushing and we have met the money that is needed.

It's the structure that is being worked on, this is the last hurdle but one from reading around sounds like it will get done.

I thought Benfica’s whole insistence was on selling if the clause was paid and in full?

Are we really gonna go to the wire trying to negotiate a structured deal for the same fee?

I can smell heartbreak. Unfortunately. If we don’t get him how much outrage is their gonna be that we didn’t pay the fucking clause in a oner 😂

Edited January 30, 2023 by OneMoSalah

[Special Juan 28,786]

2 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

I thought Benfica’s whole insistence was on selling if the clause was paid and in full? Are we really gonna go to the wire trying to negotiate a structured deal for the same fee? I can smell heartbreak.

That's why the whole term 'negotiations' is a prominent phrase here used by all the top reporters. It's simply us saying' we are going to pay it and this is how want to do it' 

They will probably say no but this is where we have to ramp it up. I'm really positive that if it comes to it Tb will pay it up front and we get our man.

[Mhsc 1,146]

I don't think we were ever going to pay the release clause and take on the tax implications. We just have to assume the club cannot refuse a deal that is equivalent for them as it would totally ruin their relationship with the player forever anyway.

[OneMoSalah 9,108]

7 minutes ago, Special Juan said:

That's why the whole term 'negotiations' is a prominent phrase here used by all the top reporters. It's simply us saying' we are going to pay it and this is how want to do it' 

They will probably say no but this is where we have to ramp it up. I'm really positive that if it comes to it Tb will pay it up front and we get our man.

Hopefully it does go ahead. Be intrigued to see how he would fare in the PL after seeing him at the World Cup.

I do think they’ll be wanting the full sum though.

Or the deals gonna be something like €80/100m upfront, €40/20m in add ons to make it up to and a player on loan or something daft.

Theres no way they weaken their stance now on the 30th after being so tough throughout the month. 
 

@Mhsc ultimately if he doesn’t get his move he’ll still end up playing for Benfica to the summer and they’d say then you can go.

Its not often you hear of players at Benfica players falling out with their managers/board/president after not getting a move. I mean their whole business model is on flipping a profit so I would imagine that the player will be fine and the club will still use him. I think if you look back at them historically the last 15-20 years they’ve always sold at the right time also.
 

Another big reason behind them not selling in January for less than the clause is because their still competing in the CL, in the title race and domestic cups IIRC.

Edited January 30, 2023 by OneMoSalah

[Special Juan 28,786]

Benfica aren't weakening they have been insistent all along- We have now told them we will meet the money that they want.

The player and agent are pushing and he's told them he wants to go. This deal is coming to a close and I 100% think no matter Rui Costa wants it gets done and we get him before tomorrow's deadline. Todd Boehly, Egbhali and Winstanley aren't in Portugal to pick fruit.

 

[OneMoSalah 9,108]

3 minutes ago, Special Juan said:

Benfica aren't weakening they have been insistent all along- We have now told them we will meet the money that they want.

The player and agent are pushing and he's told them he wants to go. This deal is coming to a close and I 100% think no matter Rui Costa wants it gets done and we get him before tomorrow's deadline. Todd Boehly, Egbhali and Winstanley aren't in Portugal to pick fruit.

 

Lets hope then. It’ll be tight though if their gonna dick about with structure again on our end.

I don’t know what the FFP implications of just paying €120m upfront is but surely if it comes to it they’ll do it?

Edited January 30, 2023 by OneMoSalah

[Pizy 19,286]

As an aside, if we are going so hard trying to get Enzo this month rather than summer, wouldn’t it have made sense for us to try to get even a small fee and sell Jorginho now rather than let him walk for free? Enzo is his direct replacement and if we get him that should make Jorginho’s minutes go to basically nothing. We probably could’ve got a few million for him from someone.

 

[Mhsc 1,146]

1 minute ago, Pizy said:

As an aside, if we are going so hard trying to get Enzo this month rather than summer, wouldn’t it have made sense for us to try to get even a small fee and sell Jorginho now rather than let him walk for free? Enzo is his direct replacement and if we get him that should make Jorginho’s minutes go to basically nothing. We probably could’ve got a few million for him from someone.

 

Too late in the window now but yes would have made sense, tbh they could offer him an extension and then sell in summer if he is game.

[Special Juan 28,786]

Behdad is the one that is steering this exactly like the Mudryk deal- From reading reports he's adamant to get it over the line and used to getting what he wants

[Jype 6,398]

1 minute ago, OneMoSalah said:

I don’t know what the FFP implications of just paying €120m upfront is but surely if it comes to it they’ll do it?

As long as the deal is done by agreeing a €120M transfer fee and not by triggering the €120M buy-out then it won't affect FFP whatever the actual payment schedules. It's not like Clearlake don't have the money in hand if they wanted to pay it in one go so I doubt it's going to be a huge problem if the club are in fact ready to pay the full €120M and on whatever payment terms Benfica demand.

Now if Benfica were to be dicks about it they could still just point to the buy-out clause which cannot be amortised and would count as a €120M one-off FFP hit then it's just not going to be done. I'm sure Enzo himself would be thrilled if Benfica fucked over his move over a technicality that doesn't even benefit them at all because either way they'll still get the €120M.

[TheHulk 2,650]

Let him go you fucking cunt.