Tammy Abraham

[Tomo 21,741]

  On 09/03/2020 at 17:46, Jason said:

Scenes if CHO doesn't turn out to be as good as people expect...

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Probably not half as bad as if we let him go because he "wanted too much" only to see him furfil his potential at Bayern or worse a top six rival.

[Jase 43,479]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:00, Tomo said:

Probably not half as bad as if we let him go because he "wanted too much" only to see him furfil his potential at Bayern or worse a top six rival.

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That's still an 'IF' situation. 

[Tomo 21,741]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:03, Jason said:

That's still an 'IF' situation. 

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So is your scenario

Callum was one of the star men of the most dominant academy team since the Busby babes, had Bayern (well renowned for their penny pinching) willing to spend £35m after two first team starts. He passed all the tests at youth level and all things considered has done well with the step up to the first team.

There's never any guarentee with any players but he's done and shown enough to take that chance on, not only that, like I said 120k really really isn't that much for a player of his talent, a standard squad player signing would be commanding in or around that these days, case in point Drinkwater.

[Jase 43,479]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:18, Tomo said:

So is your scenario

Callum was one of the star men of the most dominant academy team since the Busby babes, had Bayern (well renowned for their penny pinching) willing to spend £35m after two first team starts. He passed all the tests at youth level and all things considered has done well with the step up to the first team.

There's never any guarentee with any players but he's done and shown enough to take that chance on, not only that, like I said 120k really really isn't that much for a player of his talent, a standard squad player signing would be commanding in or around that these days, case in point Drinkwater.

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Go through history and I'm sure you will find lots of young players who did well at youth level but never went on to fulfill their potential. For our sake, CHO better go on to fulfill his potential because if not, we're gonna look like idiots for the way we caved in on his demands and so do you, since you're confidently talking him up. 

[Tomo 21,741]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:28, Jason said:

Go through history and I'm sure you will find lots of young players who did well at youth level but never went on to fulfill their potential. For our sake, CHO better go on to fulfill his potential because if not, we're gonna look like idiots for the way we caved in on his demands and so do you, since you're confidently talking him up. 

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So out of curiosity, would you have let him walk?

[Jase 43,479]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:35, Tomo said:

So out of curiosity, would you have let him walk?

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Would have tried to persuade him to stay but not cave into his contract demands. 

[Tomo 21,741]

  On 09/03/2020 at 19:58, Jason said:

Would have tried to persuade him to stay but not cave into his contract demands. 

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120k a week basic is the rumoured wage which really isn't that obscene when you consider inflation, his potential and the leverage he had. We sign a standard squad player in his place and we're paying around that much pw for him too and unlike with Callum, there's no elite potential to go with it.

Way everyone bangs on you'd think we've done an Alexis. We aren't the first and won't be the last club to take calculated gambles on elite potential, like I said United are rumoured to be handing 100k a week alongside a £50m transfer fee to a kid with one season's championship experience. Data is so far advanced these days it isn't actually that hard for fans to work out who's going to make it at this level let alone coaches/scouts, that's why we "caved in" to Callum and sent Solanke on his way, that's why perreniel penny pinchers Bayern were happy to spunk £35m for him at a point he had two career starts.

[Jase 43,479]

  On 10/03/2020 at 03:42, Tomo said:

120k a week basic is the rumoured wage which really isn't that obscene when you consider inflation, his potential and the leverage he had. We sign a standard squad player in his place and we're paying around that much pw for him too and unlike with Callum, there's no elite potential to go with it.

Way everyone bangs on you'd think we've done an Alexis. We aren't the first and won't be the last club to take calculated gambles on elite potential, like I said United are rumoured to be handing 100k a week alongside a £50m transfer fee to a kid with one season's championship experience. Data is so far advanced these days it isn't actually that hard for fans to work out who's going to make it at this level let alone coaches/scouts, that's why we "caved in" to Callum and sent Solanke on his way, that's why perreniel penny pinchers Bayern were happy to spunk £35m for him at a point he had two career starts.

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Don't know why you keep on mentioning Drinkwater as a comparison because while we may be paying him 100k per week, no one is sitting here and saying he deserves that amount. In fact, I believe a few here have raged over the club giving him that much money and it was certainly dumb of the board to do so, especially when we are struggling to ship him out!

Let's face it, the only reason CHO got the club to cave in on his demands was because of Bayern's interest. It's not because of his potential. CHO had a leverage and he used it, which is fair enough I guess from his perspective, but if it wasn't for Bayern's interest, the club wouldn't have given CHO the contract they gave him, especially for someone who hadn't done much (still hasn't done much but partly due to injuries) at senior level. James for example, someone who people have rated with the most potential out of our academy players and who actually shone on loan last season, reportedly got only 80k per week in his new contract and with bonuses, it would rise to only 100k, which is less than CHO's contract. If only he had a big club come chasing after him!

[Tomo 21,741]

  On 10/03/2020 at 07:30, Jason said:

Don't know why you keep on mentioning Drinkwater as a comparison because while we may be paying him 100k per week, no one is sitting here and saying he deserves that amount. In fact, I believe a few here have raged over the club giving him that much money and it was certainly dumb of the board to do so, especially when we are struggling to ship him out!

Let's face it, the only reason CHO got the club to cave in on his demands was because of Bayern's interest. It's not because of his potential. CHO had a leverage and he used it, which is fair enough I guess from his perspective, but if it wasn't for Bayern's interest, the club wouldn't have given CHO the contract they gave him, especially for someone who hadn't done much (still hasn't done much but partly due to injuries) at senior level. James for example, someone who people have rated with the most potential out of our academy players and who actually shone on loan last season, reportedly got only 80k per week in his new contract and with bonuses, it would rise to only 100k, which is less than CHO's contract. If only he had a big club come chasing after him!

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Well it kind of goes hand in hand, Bayern wouldn't have offered him and us such a mega deal if he didn't have elite potential. If Google exchange rate isn't lying to me he would have jumped immediately in at number 2 for their most expensive signing ever, falling to number 3 when Hernandez joined.

https://sillyseason.com/list/bayern-munich-most-expensive-signings-131572/

[11Drogba 2,000]

  On 10/03/2020 at 12:30, Tomo said:

 Bayern wouldn't have offered him and us such a mega deal if he didn't have elite potential.

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Didn't they also offer a mega deal to Renato Sanches?

[Jase 43,479]

  On 10/03/2020 at 12:30, Tomo said:

Well it kind of goes hand in hand, Bayern wouldn't have offered him and us such a mega deal if he didn't have elite potential. If Google exchange rate isn't lying to me he would have jumped immediately in at number 2 for their most expensive signing ever, falling to number 3 when Hernandez joined.

https://sillyseason.com/list/bayern-munich-most-expensive-signings-131572/

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Is using other club's interest really a strong justification of a player's potential or talent? It's like us saying we should keep Willian because the likes of Barcelona and Juventus want him! 

[LAM09 6,887]

  On 10/03/2020 at 12:36, Jason said:

Is using other club's interest really a strong justification of a player's potential or talent? It's like us saying we should keep Willian because the likes of Barcelona and Juventus want him! 

Sooner people realised that the club effectively buckled because of Bayern, the better.

Also, I still believe he would have jumped ship had he not been out long term.

[chippy 342]

  On 09/03/2020 at 18:00, Tomo said:

Probably not half as bad as if we let him go because he "wanted too much" only to see him furfil his potential at Bayern or worse a top six rival.

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But where do we/the club draw the line with these ridiculous wage demands? CHO had done absolutely nothing in the Premiership to deserve to paid this much! We fecked up badly with KDB and Salah but i can l live with us letting go of greedy, unproven players.

[Jase 43,479]

https://theathletic.com/1676386/2020/03/16/chelsea-mailbag-willian-abraham-lampard/

What do you think happens with Tammy Abraham’s contract situation? Do we end up giving him what he’s looking for or try to buy a striker in the summer? — Henry H

Chelsea will look to come to an agreement with Abraham and sign another forward. The last I heard is that there haven’t been any new negotiations with Abraham for a while. That is not to say a deal won’t be agreed but it has been complicated with the forward asking for a similar deal to Callum Hudson-Odoi, who earns a basic wage of £120,000 a week but as much as £180,000 with add-ons.

Abraham is also waiting to see what Chelsea’s plans are regarding bringing in someone else up front. Obviously, he wants to build on this season and be first choice. A big arrival would risk that.

Chelsea want to strengthen the frontline and at least one of Michy Batshuayi and Olivier Giroud will leave. RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner is unlikely now with Liverpool stepping up their interest, so their focus is more on Lyon’s Moussa Dembele. He won’t come cheap, however, although he is not the kind of player that will automatically walk into the side.

[OhForAGreavsie 5,916]

  On 10/03/2020 at 12:30, Tomo said:

Well it kind of goes hand in hand, Bayern wouldn't have offered him and us such a mega deal if he didn't have elite potential. If Google exchange rate isn't lying to me he would have jumped immediately in at number 2 for their most expensive signing ever, falling to number 3 when Hernandez joined.

https://sillyseason.com/list/bayern-munich-most-expensive-signings-131572/

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I disagree slightly because I think Bayern's interest may not be quite as big an endorsement as it appears at first. That said, you must be right that they saw potential in Callum and he, quite rightly, used that to his advantage.

We've all marvelled at the way Bayern's prestige and complete dominance of the Bundesliga mean that, for years now, an important chunk of their recruitment costs then nothing but signing on fees. Coupled with enormous wealth, this allows them the leeway to be more adventurous with youth transfers. Sometimes seriously speculative buys are the result. When I told people that Renato Sanches's election as young player of Euro 2016 was ridiculous, and that Bayern had bought a dud, someone on a different forum told me I was embarrassing myself with my lack of knowledge about football. For good measure, he added the classic, "So you think you know better than Bayern Munich do you?"

From the outside, it looks to me like Bayern set aside a budget they can afford to blow, and tell their youth recruiters to be bold with it. If they unearth a diamond, it's party time. If they don't, the loss was planned for, and is a drop in the ocean anyway. They are gambling, but only with what they can afford to loose. Claiming to know better than Bayern would be stupid, but I do think my intuition of how they behave in the transfer market is better than that of the lad who accused me of knowing nothing. Just because they are prepared to spend big on a young player, does not necessarily mean he's the gold standard.

[Vesper 29,475]

Stats show he’s more clinical than Kane, so how good can Tammy Abraham be?

https://theathletic.com/1813919/2020/05/15/chelsea-england-kane-lampard-tammy-abraham/

Tammy Abraham is the only one of Frank Lampard’s homegrown core not to agree a new long-term contract at Chelsea this season and the pandemic shutdown has only added to the sense of limbo.

As reported by The Athletic in December, Abraham’s insistence that any extension to his current deal — which pays him £50,000 a week and runs to June 2022 — puts him at least on par with Callum Hudson-Odoi’s £120,000-a-week basic salary has complicated negotiations. Both player and club were prepared to wait and resume talks in the summer, but the summer now looks very different.

Until the last few weeks, Abraham could have been forgiven for expecting his bargaining power to grow at the end of this season. He had nine games left to add to his tally of 13 Premier League goals and, with Harry Kane battling to recover from a hamstring injury, he was in pole position to lead the line for England at Euro 2020.

Now that opportunity has been taken away and Abraham’s best chance of strengthening his hand on the pitch will come, at best, behind closed doors. The transfer window that follows this season already looks likely to be one of the most volatile in recent memory, with so much of the financial fallout to COVID-19 still to be determined.

That could benefit Abraham. The risk of Chelsea splashing out on a big-name striker who relegates him to the role of understudy might have receded a little, though there are cheaper options; giving one extra year to Olivier Giroud was a pragmatic move for all involved, while Lampard really likes Dries Mertens, who is due to be a free agent. Don’t be surprised if that one is revisited.

But if football’s new financial reality does prompt Chelsea to scale back their spending plans, the consequences will not be limited to the transfer market. Last month, the club proposed a 30 per cent wage cut for the first-team squad, before deciding to park the issue for the time being when club captain Cesar Azpilicueta countered with a 10 per cent offer on behalf of the players.

Those talks will be revived if Project Restart falters or fails and, if any wage cut is agreed across the board, it becomes much more difficult to justify giving Abraham — or any other player — the kind of salary package that proved a sticking point when it was floated before COVID-19 hit.

Lampard’s desire is clear. Abraham has been his most intriguing — and at times his most thrillingly rewarding — development project this season, and the bond the pair have forged is strong. He has also established himself as the most beloved member of the “Class of 2019” at Stamford Bridge, where his personality regularly shines as brightly as his talent.

But as they consider how much they value him in their future plans, Chelsea must settle on an answer to a more fundamental question: How good can Tammy Abraham become?

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Abraham approached this season as a once-in-a-career opportunity to establish himself as Chelsea’s next talismanic frontman, and he has done everything in his power to take it. Until a freak ankle injury sustained against Arsenal in January derailed his momentum, his status as first-choice striker was unquestionable, despite the presence of Giroud and Michy Batshuayi.

He has been the only reliable goalscorer in a squad regularly lacking a cutting edge, finding the net on average every 149.5 minutes in the Premier League. If he started all nine of Chelsea’s remaining matches and continued to score at the same rate, he would finish with 18 league goals, a tally surpassed only by Diego Costa (twice with 20) in the club’s previous nine seasons.

Along the way have been flashes of superstar potential. There was the run of seven goals in three matches in autumn, punctuated by a swaggering hat-trick against Wolves at Molineux. Then there was the moment in December when he appeared to channel Didier Drogba, first with the late winner that shattered Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, then with his arm-pumping celebration.

But there have also been less glorious moments: being foiled by Alisson after running clear of the Liverpool defence with Chelsea 1-0 down at Stamford Bridge in September, or planting two unmarked headers into the arms of Bernd Leno during the 2-2 home draw with Arsenal in January, or finding nothing but air when he flung himself at a perfect Reece James cross against Leicester.

All in all, Abraham has had 24 “big chances”, as defined by Opta, in the Premier League this season and missed 17 of them. Some of the very best goalscorers miss a lot, but his “big chance” conversion rate of 29.2 per cent is comfortably the lowest of any of the 10 highest scorers in the competition in 2019-20.

Abraham’s expected goals (xG) rating for the season is 12.39, making his tally of 13 goals pretty much par for the course. But his expected goals on target (xGOT) value — Opta’s metric which takes into account how difficult shot attempts are for a goalkeeper to save — is only 10.58, reinforcing the idea that the quality of his finishing has not quite done justice to the quality of his chances.

The problem with these statistics, however, is that they are based on a pretty small sample size. For any assessment of whether Abraham can produce at the level of an elite Premier League striker, we have less than a full season’s worth of data to work with – only 1,944 minutes, to be exact. Chelsea will have access to more sophisticated internal metrics, but they also face the same difficulty.

Much of a striker’s statistical output can vary considerably from season to season. One of the more reliable measures of how consistently threatening they are is shot attempts (excluding blocks) per 90 minutes, and on this front Abraham looks good. His average has increased from 2.5 while on loan at Aston Villa last season to 2.8, putting him level with Mohamed Salah and Marcus Rashford and behind only Sergio Aguero (3.3) among the Premier League’s 10 leading scorers.

His 13 goals in this season’s Premier League have come from 60 shots (excluding blocks), which translates to a conversion rate of 21.7 per cent. This is considerably lower than the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34.7 per cent) and Aguero (28.6 per cent), but higher than Salah (19.7 per cent) and Rashford (17.3 per cent).

Abraham’s expected goals per 90 minutes (xG90) also marks him out as one of the most consistently dangerous strikers in the Premier League this season. Once penalties are excluded, his value of 0.57 ranks third behind only Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.64) and Aguero (0.76) among the Premier League’s top 10 goalscorers in 2019-20.

His movement is smart, his mindset is aggressive and he is not discouraged by missed chances. These are all encouraging signs for Abraham, and for Chelsea as they weigh up his leading-man credentials. That calculation must be based not only on how good the numbers suggest he is right now, but an educated projection of what he could be in his prime years.

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The burden of being Chelsea’s first-choice striker means that Abraham will be compared to elite strikers operating at the peak of their powers. But he is also 22, so any analysis must also account for the possibility that he will get considerably better as he gets older.

Kane presents the ideal trajectory. Much like Abraham, he cut his teeth with several loans in the Football League and only became a regular Premier League starter at the age of 21, when his Europa League performances gave Mauricio Pochettino no choice but to elevate him to Tottenham’s starting XI ahead of the struggling Roberto Soldado.

At the age of 22, Kane won the Premier League Golden Boot for the first time with 25 goals in the 2015-16 season. On the face of it, that achievement puts him far ahead of Abraham’s current development curve, but if we look at the underlying numbers in context the picture becomes much more nuanced.

Kane may have scored almost double the number of goals in 2015-16 that Abraham has managed this season, but he also played a lot more games (and 1,400 more minutes). Their averages for goals per 90 minutes are much closer: 0.7 for Kane, 0.6 for Abraham. Five of Kane’s goals also came from the penalty spot, and when these are excluded the comparison of their numbers get very interesting.

Abraham’s expected goals per 90 minutes (xG90) of 0.57 is actually better than Kane’s 0.48 with penalties excluded, despite the Tottenham man averaging more shot attempts excluding blocks per 90 minutes (3.3, compared to 2.8). Kane’s shot conversion rate of 20.2 per cent in 2015-16 was also slightly worse than Abraham’s 21.7 per cent this season.

The one area in which Kane was clearly superior is in the realm of “big chances”: he scored 17 of 35 for a conversion rate of 49.6 per cent, compared to Abraham’s 29.2 per cent conversion rate.

Almost all of this is hugely encouraging for Abraham and for Chelsea, reinforcing the notion that a long-term contract could be very rewarding for both parties. His production in front of goal this season stands up to comparison with one of the finest Premier League campaigns recorded by the best English striker of a generation. A similar superstar trajectory is very much on the table.

We don’t have enough data to know whether Abraham’s relative struggles with “big chances” this season point to a more significant issue. But even if it does, there are plenty of examples of strikers becoming more clinical, composed and prolific as they get older. Thierry Henry was 22 when he first broke into double figures for goals in a season. Didier Drogba was 24.

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There is, of course, more to being a leading striker at a top club in 2020 than simply scoring goals. Many of Abraham’s doubters at the beginning of this season argued that his skill set was a little too one-dimensional to succeed at the very highest level, that his hold-up and link-up play in particular were not refined enough to contribute to all aspects of his team’s play.

Both were early points of emphasis for Abraham from Lampard and his assistants during pre-season, and he has demonstrated remarkable progress both in training and in matches. His 6ft 3in frame is wiry rather than bulky, but he is stronger than he looks and he has learned the art of playing with his back to goal, using his sheer physical dimensions to hold off defenders as he controls the ball.

A recurring theme of Chelsea’s comprehensive 2-0 win over Tottenham in December was Abraham having his way with Toby Alderweireld and Davinson Sanchez to set the table for his team-mates:

Another sequence of play, against Brighton on New Years’ Day, when he outmuscled Lewis Dunk to control a dropping ball, turned him and drew a foul, was straight out of the Drogba playbook:

“He puts on videos of Didier and Diego Costa at night, he is like that,” Lampard said of Abraham in December. “He wants to be the best. He can look at those two and they will be great examples to follow.”

Abraham has embraced Lampard’s challenge to lead the Chelsea press from the front, often dovetailing well with Mason Mount to harass opposing defenders and win the ball back deep in the opposition half. Often only wayward finishing or poor decision-making in the final third have prevented the tireless work from resulting in goals.

When it comes to link-up play, Abraham has taken advantage of being in close proximity to Giroud, described by Eden Hazard in 2018 as the best target man in the world. “I look at Oli like an older brother,” he said of the Frenchman in October. “I’m always learning from him on the training pitch and I’ve grown up watching him.

“Oli is obviously not the fastest striker in the world, but what he has is unbelievable. His one-touch play, his hold-up play, his one-touch finishing. I just take those little things that I see in training. I’m a visual learner. I like to watch and take people’s ideas and add them to myself.”

Abraham is not much of a creative presence in Chelsea’s attack. He has averaged just 0.08 expected assists per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and only touches the ball an average of 26.34 times outside the penalty area per 90 minutes. There have, however, been moments when he has exhibited impressive awareness of his team-mates.

Many of his best combinations have come with Mount, building on their long-standing chemistry in Chelsea’s youth sides. Here, against Everton at Goodison Park, he deftly flicks Kurt Zouma’s forward pass over the home defence to send his England team-mate darting into the penalty area:

And here, he brilliantly swivels and cushions a James’ cross down for Mount to volley in a memorable winner against Aston Villa in December:

Abraham’s aerial prowess is valuable at both ends of the pitch for Chelsea. He has scored three headed goals this season — for context, Costa only scored five in three Premier League campaigns — and averages 0.8 headed shot attempts per 90 minutes. At defensive set-pieces, Lampard frees him from marking assignments to attack the incoming ball (below), as Drogba once did so effectively.

Lampard’s tactical system deploys Abraham as if he were a talismanic front man, and there have been more than enough flashes this season to suggest his faith could be well placed.

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The question is: do Chelsea believe Abraham is fundamental to their future plans? With two years left on his current contract, the tick of the clock isn’t too ominous just yet, even if the protracted nature of the negotiations cannot be ignored. There is time for all parties to reach a mutually satisfying agreement.

Abraham is adored at Stamford Bridge, and all the indications are that he is desperate to become Chelsea’s next legendary striker. Considering the challenges to which he has already risen this season, the smart move is probably for the club to give him every opportunity to realise his dream.

[NikkiCFC 8,126]

Not sure he will sign that contract now. Some reports earlier said that he is waiting to see who we will buy.

[Jase 43,479]

  On 04/06/2020 at 18:12, NikkiCFC said:

Not sure he will sign that contract now. Some reports earlier said that he is waiting to see who we will buy.

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If he doesn't want to fight for his spot, then it says a lot more about him than us.