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7 minutes ago, ulsterchelsea said:

it's phillips so probably bollocks. Looks good tho

 

Vlahovic is not at all WC at pressing, so he is perhaps not in the mix

these are the true press monsters

Victor Osimhen  
Jonathan David  
Ivan Toney  (as long as the betting shit is sorted)

Randal Kolo Muani 
Rasmus Højlund  (super pace)

 

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Josko Gvardiol transfer: How Chelsea, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Man City interest could play out

https://theathletic.com/4302498/2023/03/14/josko-gvardiol-transfer-Chelsea-real-madrid-manchester-city/

Josko Gvardiol transfer: How Chelsea, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Man City interest could play out

Josko Gvardiol is a man in demand.

The Croatia international only signed a new contract at RB Leipzig in September — a deal that, in theory, ties him to the Bundesliga club until 2027 — but few expect him to see it out.

Gvardiol’s deal contains a release clause set at £97million ($118m) but does not become active before the summer of 2024.

Despite Leipzig’s high valuation and strong contractual position, the 21-year-old, who underlined his status as one of Europe’s most promising centre-halves when helping Croatia finish third at the World Cup in Qatar, can expect a scramble to secure his signature this summer, with most of the continent’s leading clubs expected to form a pretty disorderly queue.

He faces one of them, Manchester City, with a Champions League quarter-finals place on the line tonight, having equalised for Leipzig in the first leg in eastern Germany three weeks ago.

Here, The Athletic analyses where Gvardiol may be playing his club football next season, and what the factors could be behind any decision.


Chelsea

Chelsea were the Premier League club most keenly interested in Gvardiol last summer, and could well have gone through with the deal had the terms been easier to nail down with Leipzig.

Initial discussions started over a fee worth around €70million (£60.5million), which rose to €80m and finally €90m, before collapsing. Instead, they kept their powder dry and signed Monaco’s Benoit Badiashile — for less money than Gvardiol would cost — in January.

Relations between the two clubs are generally good, and they have successfully come to agreements on other major deals in recent seasons: Timo Werner (in both directions), Christopher Nkunku (who will join Chelsea this summer after signing an agreement in October) and Christopher Vivell, who joined the Londoners as technical director in December after leaving the German club.

Chelsea’s interest in Gvardiol has not disappeared and the struggles of Kalidou Koulibaly (like Gvardiol, a left-sided centre-half) in his debut season in the English game at age 31 mean that a summer move cannot be discounted.

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However, there are several factors counting against it. The form of Badiashile has impressed Chelsea’s coaching staff, who might be reluctant to stunt the 21-year-old’s development by signing another first-team defender.

There is also the question of what happens to Levi Colwill, the 20-year-old who is on a season’s loan in the domestic top flight at Brighton & Hove Albion but remains very much part of Chelsea’s long-term plans. Thiago Silva is 38 but the Brazil captain has also recently signed a new contract. In short, head coach Graham Potter is not lacking for central defensive options.

Chelsea might also be losing one of the potential trump cards in persuading Gvardiol to join — his Croatia team-mate Mateo Kovacic. The midfielder revealed in September that he had been asked about Gvardiol by Chelsea’s new owners and it seems inconceivable that he would not also have been talking to his international colleague about what the west London club have to offer.

But there is a possibility Kovacic, 28, is going to leave Stamford Bridge come the summer. He has just one year left on his contract and, as The Athletic reported recently, talks over an extension have yet to start.

Finally, Chelsea’s close-season transfer window priorities are likely to fall in other areas. They are looking for a new goalkeeper, possibly another midfielder and a top striker (again) to name just three, as well as weighing up whether to buy Joao Felix, who is on a half-season loan from Atletico Madrid.

Gvardiol is greatly admired by Chelsea executives, but any possible deal for him may have to wait until 2024 at the earliest.

 

Manchester City

One of Gvardiol’s nicknames is ‘Little Pep’ — mainly a nod to the similarities between their surnames, although it also echoed their playing careers, as the Croatian began life as a central midfielder, Pep Guardiola’s old position.

Regardless, the Manchester City manager is a fully signed-up member of the Gvardiol fan club, along with the director of football at the Premier League champions, Txiki Begiristain. Last summer, when Nathan Ake was tipped to leave the Etihad Stadium in pursuit of more regular first-team football, City made an enquiry to Leipzig to gauge the possibility of signing him. Reports of their interest flared again during the World Cup before Christmas and there have been informal talks between Guardiola and the player.

City would doubtless put themselves in the mix for his signature this summer given chances to sign players of this quality are rare, but the club are conscious they already have five senior centre-backs on their books: Ruben Diaz, John Stones, Ake, Aymeric Laporte and Manuel Akanji.

If Guardiola wishes to add another, particularly for the sort of money Leipzig would be demanding, one of those five would have to leave. Laporte would be the most likely candidate for an exit, but that would inevitably complicate matters.

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Real Madrid

The reigning Spanish, European and world champions always feature in discussions around the futures of the continent’s top talents, and there is no doubt that executives at the Bernabeu Stadium are fans of Gvardiol.

The La Liga club met the player’s representatives in December after his fine performances at the World Cup, underlining the extent of that admiration at the highest level.

But there is an acceptance that Gvardiol will probably be out of their reach — an increasingly common scenario as Madrid find themselves pitched against the Premier League’s financial behemoths, such as in the pursuit of Borussia Dortmund’s England midfielder Jude Bellingham.

Madrid are no longer in a position to pursue several high-cost targets in the same window, and they will not countenance spending the kind of money Leipzig will demand for Gvardiol — especially when some Premier League clubs will be happy to pay such a sum.

The inability to compete with England’s elite is the driving force behind Madrid’s continuing demands for a European Super League: ironically, a club who have benefited greatly from outmuscling rivals financially for so long now see it as the only way they can close the economic gap.

There is also a feeling within the club that their squad does not need central defensive reinforcements.

Liverpool

Gvardiol is admired by senior recruitment figures at Liverpool, who have closely tracked his development. They also have a good relationship with Leipzig having bought Naby Keita and Ibrahima Konate from them.

However, Liverpool have bigger transfer priorities than centre-back. Their focus this summer is on strengthening their midfield department. Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham, the club’s top target, would command a fee higher than £100million. Liverpool also retain an interest in Wolves’ Matheus Nunes and Chelsea’s Mason Mount.

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Centre-backs Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate remain Jurgen Klopp’s first-choice partnership, with Joe Gomez, Joel Matip and Nathaniel Phillips providing back-up.

Matip will enter the final year of his contract this summer and Phillips is expected to leave in search of regular game time.

So Liverpool may well need to bring in another centre-back as cover but given the competition for his signature and the size of the fee that will be required to secure his services, it’s unlikely to be Gvardiol.

Juventus

Ordinarily, Juventus would be the only Italian club able to compete for a player in Gvardiol’s price bracket — as they did, successfully, when Matthijs de Ligt left Ajax in the summer of 2019.

Juventus need a centre-back but their 2022 close-season signing Gleison Bremer is the defender they wish to build the back line around, and there is uncertainty surrounding their budget for the summer.

Whether the Turin side would represent an attractive proposition to Gvardiol is another factor, too. They have been docked 15 points this season due to an accounting scandal, which has left their hopes of qualifying for the 2023-24 Champions League in tatters, despite their record being the second-best in Serie A. Juventus hope to get that ruling overturned but there could also be further punishments inflicted on them.

There are precious few other options in Serie A.

Inter Milan are losing Milan Skriniar on a Bosman to Paris Saint-Germain this summer and have no cash to reinvest. AC Milan, meanwhile, will not pay more than £30million for a player and already have a surfeit of fine prospects at centre-back.


Comfortable on the ball, aggressive defensively

We can develop an impression of Gvardiol’s skill set using Smarterscout, which assigns players’ attributes a rating from zero to 99 based on either how well or how frequently they perform a particular action.

The scores below are adjusted for Premier League standard and measured in comparison to other centre-backs — in other words, Gvardiol’s maximum score of 99 for ‘defending intensity’ means he engages opposition attackers more than almost any other centre-back at the highest level. Even better, his high rating for ‘defending impact’ (88 out of 99) shows he is effective at forcing turnovers when he does pressurise the other team.

pizza_josko_gvardiol_LCB_2021-22.png

Gvardiol’s data from last season also highlights that he is not only confident carrying the ball out of defence (‘carry and dribble volume’, 67 out of 99), but that he also has a tendency to play longer, riskier passes upfield to build the attack for his team (‘progressive passing’, 64 out of 99).


RB Leipzig

There is always, of course, the option of staying put.

Leipzig certainly seem in no rush to push him towards the exit, and that recent contract extension served notice of how highly they think of him. That much has been obvious since he was signed from Dinamo Zagreb back home in 2021, when Leipzig’s then-sporting director Markus Krosche announced that “we have signed one of the best defensive talents in Europe”.

His stock has only risen since then. Indeed, he has been referred to within Leipzig as the ‘Erling Haaland of centre-backs’ and they are acutely aware his value should be adjusted accordingly.

There is an acknowledgement that Gvardiol may ask to move for a lower fee than his release clause stipulates but club executives are minded to hold their ground.

“Josko Gvardiol will be an RB Leipzig player next season as well,” said their head coach Marco Rose last month. “I am the coach and I am asking for that. He is happy here. He said he wants to play in the Premier League, but he didn’t say when.”

Time will tell if Rose’s wish is realised.

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25 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said:

Matt Law is now officially annoying 

If he keeps pushing his agenda, I don't think he is going to keep getting club information before other people. The latest tweet about Mount was a bit cringey.

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16 minutes ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

If he keeps pushing his agenda, I don't think he is going to keep getting club information before other people. The latest tweet about Mount was a bit cringey.

It's clear as day he has an absolute hard on for Mason Mount and Declan Rice. 

Sickening. 

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Vor 5 Stunden sagte Vesper:

Vlahovic ist überhaupt nicht WC im Pressing, also ist er vielleicht nicht in der Mischung

Das sind die wahren Pressemonster

Victor Osimhen Jonathan David   Ivan Toney   (Solange die Wettscheisse geklärt ist) Randal Kolo Muani Rasmus Højlund   (Supertempo)  


 

 

I think Toney and Muani (United) won't be this summer.

One of Oshimen, David or Hojlund will be.

Unfortunately, I don't think Chelsea will pay the transfer fee of 120-150 million euros for Osimhen and everyone knows ADL will squeeze us to death.

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9 hours ago, TheHulk said:

We sitting at the big table again.

Another rejig of a competition that will pointlessly add more fixtures to an already packed fixture list. Great.

Not exactly sitting at the big table going to the Club World Cup when your not the CL winners in the previous season, is it? Is it going to end up like a shittier UEFA super league?

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12 hours ago, TheHulk said:

We sitting at the big table again.

 

2 hours ago, OneMoSalah said:

Another rejig of a competition that will pointlessly add more fixtures to an already packed fixture list. Great.

Not exactly sitting at the big table going to the Club World Cup when your not the CL winners in the previous season, is it? Is it going to end up like a shittier UEFA super league?

And don't forget the expanded Champions League. Another upping of the workload for top players. With 12 European sides spread across 8 groups in the club world cup, it's entirely possible that all 12 will progress to the last 16. That would mean a minimum of four games for us over 11 days in June, At least it's only once every 4 years.

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1 hour ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

 

And don't forget the expanded Champions League. Another upping of the workload for top players. With 12 European sides spread across 8 groups in the club world cup, it's entirely possible that all 12 will progress to the last 16. That would mean a minimum of four games for us over 11 days in June, At least it's only once every 4 years.

True but still seems like its being made into an exhibition/showcase competition to sell tickets as opposed to one earned on merit, which people will find prestigious like the Club World Cup already is (well… to a degree). 

I mean winning the CL in 2021 and that getting us selection in a 4 yearly tournament seems daft. Does it not? I mean when will it stop?

It will sell more tickets in whichever continent they host it and most clubs owners will be up for it for the money and exposure it could bring the club when in reality, its just going along the lines of being a much much much smaller rip off version of what the European Super League was touted to be but with South American/Asian teams involved also as well as all teams remaining in their domestic leagues and competitions. Just seems like bullshit. And as you’ve said, the CL is also getting expanded.

But UEFA & FIFA don’t care as long as they get richer. Ultimately the majority of the club owners wont either as it means more £££ for them and the teams. 

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