Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 28,303]

38 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I prefer Elvedi, but REALLY prefer Klostermann, but Ginter is a big upgrade as well

 

the only other Bundesliga CB's who interest me (sorry Upamecano fanboys/girls)

 

[OhForAGreavsie 5,869]

1 hour ago, Superblue_1986 said:

A high quality goalkeeper will save you points throughout the season. 

This is received wisdom, it could even be regarded as intuitively obvious, but how do we prove it statistically? How do we rerun the exact same season, with a different goalkeeper and establish the data? My counter case is that we have seen many, many, many keepers create a great reputation when playing for a top side, but look much less good playing for a worse one. The quality of the outfielders affects the impression of the keeper more than the quality of the keeper affects the standard of the team. 

Clearly there is a quality threshold, I'm not suggesting that anybody off Hackney Marshes would do. Once you have a shortlist of candidates who meet that quality standard however, there are diminishing returns for every extra £5m spent. If a squad's outfield group is stable and strong then yes, of course, go for the best keeper you can afford and add every extra tenth of a percent difference you can get. When you have multiple other needs, as we do, compromise on the keeper and bolster your outfield. The marginal difference between a £40m keeper and a Jan Oblak, for example, serves the team less well, than going with the lower price option and spending £60m-£80m extra on outfielders.

1 hour ago, Superblue_1986 said:

Liverpool likely would have won the league this season with Kepa because they were so far ahead of everyone else but they wouldn't have accrued the amount of points they did

This is an assertion. It simply can't be established as fact. There are so many other factors to consider. Starting with, but not limited to, their defenders and our defenders.

 

1 hour ago, Superblue_1986 said:

I think you can get by with a competent goalkeeper. That is where I would place someone like De Gea at the moment who makes a share of great saves, makes a share of bad mistakes but ultimately does most of the basics to a sufficient standard the majority of the time. 

This generally is my opinion. As an aside however, I do not regard shot stopping as a differentiator. Rather, I see it as an entry level skill. It's not that you get a good job because you're a good shot stopper, it's that you can't get any job at all if you're not. If you're not a good shot stopper you don't even get through the door. For me, the real differentiator is aerial command.

 

1 hour ago, Superblue_1986 said:

Kepa causes carnage to our defence.

Or has our defence shredded Kepa's confidence? It's too complex an interaction to make definitive statements.

I'm not saying that managers and fans cannot look at two keepers and decide that they prefer one over another. Nor am I saying that a manager might not conclude that his first choice keeper isn't good enough and needs changing. I am saying don't spend £120m on a keeper if it means you can't attend to other pressing areas of need, I am saying we'll get a better result if we spend £30m on a keeper and £80m on a CB than we'll get sticking with our current CBs and buying Jan Oblak. Indeed, I'm saying we'll get a better result retaining Kepa and buying a top CB, than we'll get by holding on to our CBs and buying Jan Oblak. 

[Pizy 18,322]

I think Ginter would be a very smart buy. Just the type of CB that we need. Calm, steady, commanding, good with the ball, good in the air. He would cost a fraction of what these big name CB's are going for and is at the perfect age. 

Would also be pretty cool to have a bunch of German players who are all very familiar with one another. 

[killer1257 3,282]

But can he handle PL though? AC for instance could not handle it well, but looked good at Gladbach

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[King Kante 1,450]

43 minutes ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

This is received wisdom, it could even be regarded as intuitively obvious, but how do we prove it statistically? How do we rerun the exact same season, with a different goalkeeper and establish the data? My counter case is that we have seen many, many, many keepers create a great reputation when playing for a top side, but look much less good playing for a worse one. The quality of the outfielders affects the impression of the keeper more than the quality of the keeper affects the standard of the team. 

Clearly there is a quality threshold, I'm not suggesting that anybody off Hackney Marshes would do. Once you establish a shortlist of goalkeepers who meet that quality standard however, there are diminishing returns for every extra £5m spent. If a squad's outfield group is established and strong then yes, of course, go for the best keeper you can afford and add every extra tenth of a percent difference you can get. When you have multiple other needs, as we do, compromise on the keeper and bolster your outfield. The marginal difference between a £40m keeper and a Jan Oblak, for example, serves the team less well, than going with the lower price option and spending £60m-£80m extra on outfielders.

This is an assertion. It simply can't be established as fact. There are so many other factors to consider. Starting with, but not limited to, their defenders and our defenders.

 

This generally is my opinion as an aside however, I do not regard shot stopping as a differentiator. Rather, I see it as an entry level skill. It's not that you get a good job because you're a good shot stopper, it's that you can't get any job at all if you're not. If you're not a good shot stopper you don't even get through the door. For me, the real differentiator is aerial command.

 

Or has our defence shredded Kepa's confidence? It's too complex an interaction to make definitive statements.

I'm not saying that managers and fans cannot look at two keepers and decide that they prefer one over another. Nor am I saying that a manager might not conclude that his first choice keeper isn't good enough and needs changing. I am saying don't spend £120m on a keeper if it means you can't attend to other pressing areas of need, I am saying we'll get a better result if we spend £30m on a keeper and £80m on a CB than we'll get sticking with our current CBs and buying Jan Oblak. I'm saying we'll get a better result keeping Kepa and buy a top CB than keeping our CBs and buying a keeper who is currently regarded as being at the top..

I think it is both. Kepa is crap but our defense is not much better. Both need to be overhauled. From my perspective this is how I rate the GK's and CB's; 

Kepa - Just poor. Sorry but he is fundamentally a poor GK. Poor anticipation, poor handling, poor technique, average distribution, poor command of his six yard area etc. Maybe he can redeem himself in Spain but I just do not see it. Contrary to what some people say, he wasn't much better last year but was protected by a much better set-up/had Luiz heading away danger balls crossed in. 

CB's

AC - Fundermentals are actually there with him. He knows when to step up (unfortunately he is playing with Zouma and Rudi who do not, so they then play everyone on), reads the game well and isn't rash. Problem however is that he is physically and mentally weak. My feeling with AC is that if he goes aboard he will quickly be regarded as a top CB and if he had someone who was able to take control of the back line and he could just man up a bit, he would be good for us. However, this is all if, could, should at the moment and he is quickly running out of time. 

Rudi - Has the spirit but boy, he is very easily drawn out of position and rash. On top of this, he is also not that great at heading or intercepting. Really he should be the CB that is the leader but he makes too many fundermental mistakes (see the Bayern game for the best example of this.) Only saved due to his age profile in relation to the squad and because of the current out put of AC. 

Zouma - Rugged and athletic but really poor reader of the game and poor with the ball under pressure. Zouma is a funny one, as whilst he makes tackles like the one against Palace, everyone thinks he is amazing. However, when you actually watch the play fully that tackle only had to be made due to he awful positioning and even then he only then got away with it because he is a physical beast. If he loses a yard of pace, he will be in a lot of trouble. Further, any decent team that presses high will feast on him. That said, against the bottom half he is a very handy defender.

Tomori - Good start and appears to be a little like Gallas. However, overplays in dangerous positions, is weak in the air and short. I think he may get loaned/sold with buy back because if you're wanting to push for top trophies he is too much of a risk at this point to play in a CB position. This goes double when the other three are so flawed. A further problem for him is that there is Gheui who is starting to look very good for Swansea now he has found his feet. 

Anyhow, yes, back line is also ropey and we will probably need two of them to go. Take your pick out of Rudi, Zouma and AC to leave permanently and then have Tomori loaned/sold with buy back. For me, if we do that, we then need a CB with experience who can play as a CB3 (which gives us a year or two to see how Tomori/Ghuei mature) and a CB1 who will come in and organize/lead the line. 

[Magic Lamps 11,622]

26 minutes ago, Vesper said:

I prefer Elvedi, but REALLY prefer Klostermann, but Ginter is a big upgrade as well

 

the only other Bundesliga CB's who interest me (sorry Upamecano fanboys/girls)

 

IMO Ginter is clearly better than Elvedi albeit 3 yeras older. Klostermann is in between IMO but has huge upside. ginter and Klostermann are also very versatile. can play right back and probably also DM. Koch i have not seen as much but he can play DM and CB but is a bit of a weird guy I heard.

Interesting enough,all 3, Koch, ginter and Elvedi are in their last year of contract.  Of all the listed options, Ginter is probably the most feasible and with the biggest immediate impact but with the least upside potential.

Obviously I am pro German players here but not too many,dont want a group within the group.

[King Kante 1,450]

18 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

IMO Ginter is clearly better than Elvedi albeit 3 yeras older. Klostermann is in between IMO but has huge upside. ginter and Klostermann are also very versatile. can play right back and probably also DM. Koch i have not seen as much but he can play DM and CB but is a bit of a weird guy I heard.

Interesting enough,all 3, Koch, ginter and Elvedi are in their last year of contract.  Of all the listed options, Ginter is probably the most feasible and with the biggest immediate impact but with the least upside potential.

Obviously I am pro German players here but not too many,dont want a group within the group.

Didn't Ginter get into the team of the season of virtually every German outlet and pundit? I did a little bit of research on him and he appears to be in every team of the season I saw. When it comes to Bundesliga teams, I only see enough of Munich/Dortmund/Bayer/RBL to really make comments on players so be interested to see what someone else thinks that knows the league better. 

[Alabama 1,992]

Just buy Ibrahima Konate or Nikola Milenkovic 

[Superblue 6,370]

18 minutes ago, King Kante said:

I think it is both. Kepa is crap but our defense is not much better. Both need to be overhauled. From my perspective this is how I rate the GK's and CB's; 

Kepa - Just poor. Sorry but he is fundamentally a poor GK. Poor anticipation, poor handling, poor technique, average distribution, poor command of his six yard area etc. Maybe if he can redeem himself but I just do not see it. Contrary to what some people say, he wasn't much better last year but was protected by a much better set-up/had Luiz heading away danger balls crossed in. 

CB's

AC - Fundermentals are actually there with him. He knows when to step up (unfortunately he is playing with Zouma and Rudi who do not, so they then play everyone on), reads the game well and isn't rash. Problem however is that he is physically and mentally weak. My feeling with AC is that if he goes aboard he will quickly be regarded as a top CB and if he had someone who was able to take control of the back line and he could just man up a bit, he would be good for us. However, this is all if, could, should at the moment and he is running out of time. 

Rudi - Has the spirit but boy, he is very easily drawn out of position and rash. On top of this, he is also not that great at heading or intercepting. Really he should be the CB that is the leader but he makes too many fundermental mistakes (see the Bayern game for the best example of this.) Only saved due to his age profile and because of the current out put of AC. 

Zouma - Rugged and athletic but really poor reader of the game and poor with the ball under pressure. Zouma is a funny one, as whilst he makes tackles like the one against Palace everyone thinks he is amazing. However, that tackle had to be made due to he awful positioning and he only then got away with it because he is a physical beast. If he loses a yard of pace, he will be in a lot of trouble. Further, any decent team that presses high will feast on him. That said, against the bottom half he is a very handy defender.

Tomori - Good start and appears to be a little like Gallas. However, overplays in dangerous positions, weak in the air and short. I think he may get loaned/sold with buy back as if you're wanting to push for top trophies he is too much of a risk at this point to play in a CB position and doubly so, when the other three are so flawed. Plus, there is Gheui who is starting to look very good for Swansea now he has found his feet. 

Anyhow, yes, back line is also ropey and will probably need two of them to go. Take your pick out of Rudi, Zouma and AC to leave permanently and then have Tomori loaned/sold with buy back. For me, if we do that, we then need a CB with experience who can play as a CB3 and a CB1 who will come in and organize/lead the line. 

Kepa definitely isn't fully at fault. 

Defensively we're not good enough. I feel that all of our centre backs are in a decent/good level but not a great level. We have good depth in the position but all of them are effectively secondary centre backs. We need one primary centre back who anchors and leads the back line. All of the above centre backs I think are capable of being the partner and all have different strengths that can be utilised in different situations. Having that depth too allows us the opportunity to use a back 3 in certain situations.

But I still believe when assessing a number of goals this season, Kepa is at fault more than any other player:

1. A commanding goalkeeper makes a huge difference to the set piece situation. A keeper capable of dealing with, say 75% of balls in between the width of the goalposts and out to the penalty spot, eliminates a lot of the chaos.

2. Kepa's save and expected goals against stats are damning. He lacks fundamentals that he won't suddenly gain as he gets older. He doesn't make glaring mistakes like the ones De Gea made last week but I look at probably at least 70-80% of the goals we concede thinking that he probably should have done better. That isn't just this season either, it's last season too.

If it came down to replacing Kepa or buying a new centre back, it would be replacing Kepa first and foremost for me.

[Pizy 18,322]

39 minutes ago, killer1257 said:

But can he handle PL though? AC for instance could not handle it well, but looked good at Gladbach

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AC is a complete lightweight who gets bullied way too frequently. Ginter looks much more sturdy and assertive.

[Superblue 6,370]

1 hour ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

This is received wisdom, it could even be regarded as intuitively obvious, but how do we prove it statistically? How do we rerun the exact same season, with a different goalkeeper and establish the data? My counter case is that we have seen many, many, many keepers create a great reputation when playing for a top side, but look much less good playing for a worse one. The quality of the outfielders affects the impression of the keeper more than the quality of the keeper affects the standard of the team. 

Clearly there is a quality threshold, I'm not suggesting that anybody off Hackney Marshes would do. Once you have a shortlist of candidates who meet that quality standard however, there are diminishing returns for every extra £5m spent. If a squad's outfield group is stable and strong then yes, of course, go for the best keeper you can afford and add every extra tenth of a percent difference you can get. When you have multiple other needs, as we do, compromise on the keeper and bolster your outfield. The marginal difference between a £40m keeper and a Jan Oblak, for example, serves the team less well, than going with the lower price option and spending £60m-£80m extra on outfielders.

This is an assertion. It simply can't be established as fact. There are so many other factors to consider. Starting with, but not limited to, their defenders and our defenders.

 

This generally is my opinion. As an aside however, I do not regard shot stopping as a differentiator. Rather, I see it as an entry level skill. It's not that you get a good job because you're a good shot stopper, it's that you can't get any job at all if you're not. If you're not a good shot stopper you don't even get through the door. For me, the real differentiator is aerial command.

 

Or has our defence shredded Kepa's confidence? It's too complex an interaction to make definitive statements.

I'm not saying that managers and fans cannot look at two keepers and decide that they prefer one over another. Nor am I saying that a manager might not conclude that his first choice keeper isn't good enough and needs changing. I am saying don't spend £120m on a keeper if it means you can't attend to other pressing areas of need, I am saying we'll get a better result if we spend £30m on a keeper and £80m on a CB than we'll get sticking with our current CBs and buying Jan Oblak. Indeed, I'm saying we'll get a better result retaining Kepa and buying a top CB, than we'll get by holding on to our CBs and buying Jan Oblak. 

My original post was probably worded wrong because as you said, none of it can be established as a matter of fact. 

I agree with you on the point of buying Oblak and not improving other areas. If we're looking at Oblak and the defence then fine, but if Oblak meant no other additions then we should definitely be looking at using that money to get a keeper and centre back rather than just one.

i don't agree on the last point though. I try to look as positive as possible on most things but I think Kepa is that poor of a keeper that having him in goal is such a huge liability that no amount of defensive improvements will be enough until he is replaced.

[OhForAGreavsie 5,869]

On 28/07/2020 at 1:27 PM, Superblue_1986 said:

i don't agree on the last point though. I try to look as positive as possible on most things but I think Kepa is that poor of a keeper that having him in goal is such a huge liability that no amount of defensive improvements will be enough until he is replaced.

It's odd that I'm defending Kepa when twenty-four months earlier I was pretty much a lone voice saying that we shouldn't buy him. Life is just great isn't it?

[Superblue 6,370]

1 minute ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

It's odd that I'm defending Kepa when forty-eight months earlier I was pretty much a lone voice saying that we shouldn't buy him. Life is just great isn't it?

I can remember your comments on Bulka too. 

I don't think the club expected Courtois to go on strike. I think they felt he would be prepared to see out his contract if necessary. Having said that, we probably wouldn't have had the chance to sign Kovacic presented to us off the back of the Courtois deal.

I think when Courtois did go on strike, and offers for Alisson and Oblak didn't materialise, we shouldn't have gone so high on a keeper, particularly one still very unproven.

If the club weren't prepared to roll with Bulka, we should have just looked at a short term solution at the time and re-assessed things thereafter. Obviously we can only speculate but it did feel like Kepa was such a left field signing that there was an element of panic to it.

[Jase 43,479]

8 minutes ago, Superblue_1986 said:

I can remember your comments on Bulka too. 

I don't think the club expected Courtois to go on strike. I think they felt he would be prepared to see out his contract if necessary. Having said that, we probably wouldn't have had the chance to sign Kovacic presented to us off the back of the Courtois deal.

I think when Courtois did go on strike, and offers for Alisson and Oblak didn't materialise, we shouldn't have gone so high on a keeper, particularly one still very unproven.

If the club weren't prepared to roll with Bulka, we should have just looked at a short term solution at the time and re-assessed things thereafter. Obviously we can only speculate but it did feel like Kepa was such a left field signing that there was an element of panic to it.

To be fair, while Kepa was not outstanding to begin with, I don't think the club could have foreseen him losing his confidence so badly till the point he is struggling to even do the basic stuff. At this point, it is best for everyone that he goes somewhere to regain his confidence and he would be decent for one of the lesser sides. 

[Superblue 6,370]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

To be fair, while Kepa was not outstanding to begin with, I don't think the club could have foreseen him losing his confidence so badly till the point he is struggling to even do the basic stuff. At this point, it is best for everyone that he goes somewhere to regain his confidence and he would be decent for one of the lesser sides. 

Yes, I mentioned on a different post the other day our track record with Spanish players is very weird. There's no middle ground.

The differences have always been the mental side of the game too. The ones mentally strong like Azpi, Pedro, Fabregas have been successful and particularly in the former two's case Pedro struggled first season and Fabregas initially was cast out by Conte. They went through similar trials and tribulations to the likes of Torres, Morata and Kepa who have just broken apart through fragile mindsets and complete lack of confidence.

[Jase 43,479]

1 minute ago, Superblue_1986 said:

Yes, I mentioned on a different post the other day our track record with Spanish players is very weird. There's no middle ground.

The differences have always been the mental side of the game too. The ones mentally strong like Azpi, Pedro, Fabregas have been successful and particularly in the former two's case Pedro struggled first season and Fabregas initially was cast out by Conte. They went through similar trials and tribulations to the likes of Torres, Morata and Kepa who have just broken apart through fragile mindsets and complete lack of confidence.

You forgot to mention the maniac that is Diego Costa.  

To be fair, the situation with Pedro and Fabregas was not as bad as the other. With Pedro, it was a classic case of a player taking time to settle into a new league etc while with Fabregas, it was a case of a player trying to prove the manager and force their way back in. With Torres, Kepa and Morata, things just got really shit for them and I some times wonder if the other players in the team and/or manager have tried to speak with them etc because like in Kepa's case, there seems to be no connection between him and the defenders and everything just falls apart in matches. Like do they talk about doing this, doing that, making sure A does this, B does that etc. 

[Magic Lamps 11,622]

1 hour ago, King Kante said:

Didn't Ginter get into the team of the season of virtually every German outlet and pundit? I did a little bit of research on him and he appears to be in every team of the season I saw. When it comes to Bundesliga teams, I only see enough of Munich/Dortmund/Bayer/RBL to really make comments on players so be interested to see what someone else thinks that knows the league better. 

Ginter definitely played an awesome season. But also Hummels and hinteregger had great seasons which does not mean we should sign them.

Especially in the beginning of the season, Ginter led the by far best defense in the leauge, but they tailed off in the later stages. You have to say Ginter is tactically extremely well educated, having played under various tactical perfectionists such as Tuchel and Streich. Gladbach play a very offensive style with a high line that leves a lot of space to cover, so Ginters positioning and organisation of the defense have been vital for them. In the poor second half ot the seaosn, the offense somehow stopped firing and invited more pressure on the defense, which Ginter was less comfortable of coping with but still remained their best defender. He is very experienced at 26 with a good 250+ games at top level but not much CL and I think it will take some time for Löw to realize that he cant trust Rüdiger till he makes Günter 2nd CB next to Süle.

That being said, i dont think a deal is likely. He will most probably extend with Gladbach. Also it is reported we only inquired about him being free next season, whic is highly improbable. If he moves this summer, Atletico and Inter are reportedly pondering a bid more concretely.

https://sport.sky.de/fussball/artikel/transfer-news-sky-info-atletico-steigt-in-rennen-um-ginter-ein/12037696/35311

[Jase 43,479]

Belgians. Brazilians. Spaniards. Germans.

Why we have been buying an army of players from the same country since 2010?