Chelsea Transfers

[shrenshah 186]

1 hour ago, King Kante said:

I agree completely. I think after Harvetz, it is going to be highly likely we are going to need to sell before we can buy again. 

Personally at GK we just need someone competent atm and it will be a massive upgrade. So, in that position we do not need to be spending crazy sums on Oblak (unless we can get some sort of crazy deal.) At this point, I would just be happy with a Ben Foster on a free if Watford get relegated, even though he isn't amazing. 

At LB, there are enough going at sub-£30m to make you think we can get something done. Telles, Gosens or even Tags (who I am not that sold on) are an improvement on Emerson. 

CB is going to be the tricky area. Not many about and a lot super over priced or questionable. Club are going to have to take a risk here i.e. Rice and hope he converts/Gimenez and hope he stays fit/P.Toress and hope he kicks on and adapts to the league/KK and hope he doesn't fall off a cliff in his early 30's/Dunk and hope he can step up to the pressure of a top 4 club/Vertongen on a free and hope he covers for a year. 

As for DMF, I think this is where Rice will actually be played if he signs. This in my opinion only happens if we sell one of Kante/Jorgi and get a minimum of £40m for Jorgi and £70m for Kante and a cheaper CB is brought.

As a result, I think GK can be solved with a free transfer/small fee (£10m'ish), LB can be solved under £30m. After that it is CB which will be anywhere from free-£80m, pick you poison. 

That means we have to raise between £30-£120m depending on what you want to do. The bottom end is very possible, the top end a stretch.

Rice, if he is to go in as a DMF, is virtually impossible without Kante being sold imo. 

After havertz if we have a budget of 120mn

This should be the purchase -

Gk - Rajkovic - 20mn

Cb - giminez - 75mn (Fair price in current environment)

Lb - Alex telles - 25mn

We get rice only if we sell jorginho

[turgi 71]

Is Rajkovic connected to us? or just a forum fantasy?

[killer1257 3,282]

Is Rajkovic connected to us? or just a forum fantasy?

Right now forum fantasy

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[communicate 2,703]

23 hours ago, Fernando said:

It says we need to sell defenders. Easy, sell Zouma and Andreas. We need to get rid of those 2 and keep Rudgier and Tomori. Get new CB in. 

But how much he would cost? 

Who? And he better be really2 good. 

[ZAPHOD2319 4,819]

 

[Vesper 30,224]

On 27/06/2020 at 8:11 PM, Vesper said:

if we replace Kepa with Pickford I am going to toss myself out a window

if our big CB buy is Stones I am going to toss myself out a window

[Vesper 30,224]

I would rather Ake than Stones, and we all know I am not an Ake fangirl (mainly, if not almsot all due to his major lack of height, a 5-10 or so CB tossed into a team that already has nightmares on corners and free kicks is just courting disaster with both chocolates and roses) Have not we learned by now that CB's and GKers are no place to go small?

I have to be honest, I would rather (yes I know he is 28, soon 29, in 4 months) grab Lewis Dunk that either of those two, especially if he comes in at half their price or so.

[11Drogba 2,000]

 

[Jype 6,398]

14 minutes ago, 11Drogba said:

 

Is this guy any good? Not watched Milan at all this season so I wouldn't know.

Based on some Youtube video he looks like a slightly more defensive version of Kovacic. Good at dribbling and tackling. 

[11Drogba 2,000]

17 minutes ago, Jype said:

Is this guy any good? Not watched Milan at all this season so I wouldn't know.

Based on some Youtube video he looks like a slightly more defensive version of Kovacic. Good at dribbling and tackling. 

Awesome player, great dribbler. I would be very happy if we signed him.

[Vesper 30,224]

2 hours ago, 11Drogba said:

Awesome player, great dribbler. I would be very happy if we signed him.

toss him in for Jorginho in those nightmare games he helped produced on occasion we might have won or at least drawn over half of them

zero chance we would have gotten so overrun

[Vesper 30,224]

3 hours ago, Jype said:

Is this guy any good? Not watched Milan at all this season so I wouldn't know.

Based on some Youtube video he looks like a slightly more defensive version of Kovacic. Good at dribbling and tackling. 

yes, very

[King Kante 1,643]

Just trying to figure out what the budget may be for us. I am going to base things from Jan 19 as I think that is the most fair way of doing things; 

Brought 

Pulisic - £58m 

Kovacic - £38m 

Ziyech - £37m 

Werner - £48m 

Total - £131m 

Sold 

Morata - £50m 

Hazard - £90m + bonus 

Luiz - £8m 

Pasalic - £13.5m 

Nathan - £2.7m 

Lamptey - £3m 

Aina - £7m

Kalas - £8m

Hector - £4m

Omeruo - £4m 

Cesc - £8m 

£198.5m + Hazard bonuses 

That tells me that Harvetz must be pretty much the end of our buys without sales. 

From looking at the squad and what we need, I would say, we need: 

GK, LB, CB, CB/DMF (this last one is much lesser a concern that the first three.)

How much are we going to need for that? My feeling with the current players needing to be shipped out is that we could do something like the following (prices have been arrived at as we need to sell and Covid); 

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £15m, Zouma - £30m.

That for me is around £100m. If that is the case, £25-£30m will go on a LB, which leaves us with £70m for a GK and CB. If we want a DMF/CB (Rice) I reckon we would have to get rid of a Jorgi or Kante to fund it. 

[ChelseaFanUK 1,014]

You have those player sales, you also have 3 windows worth of budget, really.   And lest we forget IF needed we can turn to Roman for bankrolling.   After Werner, Havertz and Ziyech I'd bet we could spend another 200m if we wanted.  Of course not to say we will, just making the point.

Sales help with balancing the books, but we could quite easily do all our in business, then focus on sales.  And should one of those sales be a key player for excellent money, we'd replace i suspect.

 

Dont think Zouma goes though, i think he or Rudiger will be partner to a potentially new CB.    My guess list would be Batshuayi, Emerson, Willian free, Pedro free, Bakayoko, Zappa, Moses, Baba, Drinkwater, Kenedy.   Could be loans in that lot again, though

 

Jorginho I am 50-50 on.  Can see him staying and going.  Depends on the offer IMO.  Barkley I suspect will stay due to HG.  Unless West Ham take him for Rice

[NikkiCFC 8,334]

10 minutes ago, ChelseaFanUK said:

You have those player sales, you also have 3 windows worth of budget, really.   And lest we forget IF needed we can turn to Roman for bankrolling.   After Werner, Havertz and Ziyech I'd bet we could spend another 200m if we wanted. 

In normal situation I would say the same. But we had 100m loss last fiscal year. Plus Covid influence (at least 50m). 

But yeah even Everton or Aston Villa can go and spend 100m net in one transfer window.

I expect three more players.

Drop big money for CB and cheaper options for LB/GK.

CB - Gimenez/Skriniar 70-90M

LB - Telles/Tagliafico/Gosens 20-25m

GK - Pope/Areola/Cakir 20-25m 

 

[Puliiszola 519]

1 hour ago, King Kante said:

Just trying to figure out what the budget may be for us. I am going to base things from Jan 19 as I think that is the most fair way of doing things; 

Brought 

Pulisic - £58m 

Kovacic - £38m 

Ziyech - £37m 

Werner - £48m 

Total - £131m 

Sold 

Morata - £50m 

Hazard - £90m + bonus 

Luiz - £8m 

Pasalic - £13.5m 

Nathan - £2.7m 

Lamptey - £3m 

Aina - £7m

Kalas - £8m

Hector - £4m

Omeruo - £4m 

Cesc - £8m 

£198.5m + Hazard bonuses 

That tells me that Harvetz must be pretty much the end of our buys without sales. 

From looking at the squad and what we need, I would say, we need: 

GK, LB, CB, CB/DMF (this last one is much lesser a concern that the first three.)

How much are we going to need for that? My feeling with the current players needing to be shipped out is that we could do something like the following (prices have been arrived at as we need to sell and Covid); 

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £15m, Zouma - £30m.

That for me is around £100m. If that is the case, £25-£30m will go on a LB, which leaves us with £70m for a GK and CB. If we want a DMF/CB (Rice) I reckon we would have to get rid of a Jorgi or Kante to fund it. 

Does not make much sense to include 18/19 and 19/20 FY books in 20/21. 3 very different entities.

For this season so far we have a net spend of 20m € for werner and ziyech (offset by Morata, pasalic, Nathan).

Add 80m€ of kai, and that's 100m€.

As for sales, I am pretty sure jorginho is a goner. So that would be

Barkley - £25m, Batsh*t - £15m, Emerson - £15m, Bakayoko - £25m, Rudiger - £30m, jorginho - 40m£. 

150m £ in player sales, along with kenedy, Drinkwater, musonda, baker, Blackman, baba rahman, zappacosta, matt miazga etc etc. So 

Don't forget, only 6 loanees from this season.

Also, all of this is organic revenue that we would generate, there must be atleast 25-50m£ of the transfer budget too. So we might have more than a decent budget for a GK, CB and LB.

[NikkiCFC 8,334]

9 minutes ago, Puliiszola said:

Does not make much sense to include 18/19 and 19/20 FY books in 20/21. 3 very different entities.

For this season so far we have a net spend of 20m € for werner and ziyech (offset by Morata, pasalic, Nathan).

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? 

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

[Puliiszola 519]

Just now, NikkiCFC said:

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? 

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

If we are looking at net spend then no. Because makes no sense accounting wise to mix up 2-3 years. 

Like you said in your post above, we had a 100m loss in 18/19, so it's not like we are a profit making machine and we spend only what we earn. 

The only thing we care about is being FFP compliant. Which allows us to have 30m € loss in a 3 year rolling window. 

So given that we had a 100m loss in 18/19, I am pretty sure the hazard sale helps us balance that year out. And this year we need to break even to be compliant. So to answer your question, I don't think hazard sale helps us, other than maybe his bonuses might be included in the 20/21 season rather than 19/20.

[Puliiszola 519]

1 hour ago, NikkiCFC said:

So you are suggesting Hazard sale and transfer ban have nothing to do with our transfer window this summer? 

It's clear as day we are in better situation than all others because of this. 

Just did some more digging regarding our finances. We made 60m profit in 17/18 to 96m loss in 18/19. 

The swing of £156m can be captured in:

Profit on Player Sales down £52m

Exceptional cost up £20m

Amortization cost up £44m

Wages up £40m

Total £156m

 

Similarly if we do an analysis between 18/19 and 19/20

Exception costs will be down by 26m (what we paid Conte in 18/19)

Profit of player sales - in 18/19 we sold players for about 75m€, while this season we have sold players for about 150m+€. So not a linear extrapolation due to various different amortization fees but still let's say we double our profit. So that's a profit 60M£ (lower value).

Amortization cost - should be up as we bought kova and Puli (half a season). So around 15m loss

Wages - lost hazard and Luiz, but gave some big cobtracts to rlc, cho, James, mount, tomori. Not sure. Maybe broke even.

So just by this, we might still incur a loss 15m despite the whole hazard transfer fee already included. Also loss on match day revenue is not added to it. 

So have to say, does not look it's the hazard money which is making us go big. By the looks of things, it feels like the club will be letting go of the loan army who have been increasing our amortization value + wages for so long. Get this Zappa + baba rahman cost us around 10m in amortized value itself. Selling them would not only reduce that but also reduce wages (or atleast keep the same if the other team was paying it) while giving us some profit. The youth players (mount, rlc, cho, Tammy, james, gilmor, tomori) would all help in that. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2020/01/08/how-chelsea-went-from-record-60m-profit-to-96m-loss-in-one-year/amp/

[NikkiCFC 8,334]

8 hours ago, Puliiszola said:

If we are looking at net spend then no. Because makes no sense accounting wise to mix up 2-3 years. 

But are you ignoring Covid? Look at other teams. Arsenal, Liverpool, United, Spurs can't spend 30m it seems. 

European giants as well. Real and Bayern can't afford Havertz this summer but we can? Juve also just doing swaps. 

Last summer if we could, surely we would spend more than 100m apart from Kovacic. We lost our best player. So this money must have been kept for this summer. Kai, Timo and Hakim are 160m pounds. And we will still buy 3 or 4 more players. Our interest in Chilwell, Rice is well known. Even Atletico asistent confirmed our interest in Oblak. We are scouting Gimenez. Ofc we won't get them all if any but they are all expensive players. It's clear to me that we are in different situation to other clubs because of transfer ban. This transfer window doesn't look like typical Chelsea summer. Especially if you add Covid as big influence for everybody in business.