Chelsea Transfers

[Special Juan 28,141]

Valencia want Kepa on loan?

[Vesper 30,195]

Friday May 22 2020 Football Nerd

Why Bayer Leverkusen's Kai Havertz is so highly rated By Daniel Zeqiri Kai Havertz scores twice at away at Werder Bremen CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES Through football's coronavirus hiatus, we are committed to providing a weekly newsletter of facts, analysis and retrospectives. If there is a topic you want us to cover please email [email protected]. Above all, stay safe.     The Bundesliga is still just about a five-horse title race with eight games remaining, and the pick of Saturday's fixtures sees fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen travel to Borussia Monchenglabach in third. Leverkusen are without a Bundesliga title in their history, with five runners-up finishes earning them the disparaging moniker 'Bayer Neverkusen', and they will probably be bridesmaids again, with a top-four finish a more realistic target. The 2002 Champions League finalists possess some exciting young talents in Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby, but 20-year-old playmaker Kai Havertz is the jewel in their crown. The German has eight goals and five assists in the Bundesliga this season, and, before the coronavirus pandemic, was linked with with Manchester United and Liverpool. BT Sport pundit and former Bayern Munich player Owen Hargreaves describes Havertz as "half-Ozil, half-Ballack", which would be quite the creative hybrid. Only Thomas Muller has created more chances from open play this season than Havertz's 49, while only Muller and Serge Gnabry have created more 'big chances' than Havertz's 15. This a tremendous level of productivity for such a young player.     In an era when coaches value aggressive pressing and structured patterns of play, the stock of free-spirited No 10s such Mesut Ozil and James Rodriguez has fallen. Havertz could follow the likes of Kevin De Bruyne as the prototype of the modern attacking midfielder, combining goal-threat and dribbling as well as an eye for a pass. Like Ozil, Havertz is heavily left-footed and could run through puddles without making a splash. At almost six-foot two inches tall, his height gives him an elegance that stands comparisons with Kaka before injuries curtailed the Brazilian's career. He made an excellent return to action on Monday with two goals in Leverkusen's victory at Werder Bremen. Although silent stadiums make watching football a hollowed-out and greatly devalued spectacle, there is still much to appreciate in the game itself as Borussia Dortmund's four goals proved last week. Havertz is a fine reason to tune in again.

[Vesper 30,195]

5 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

Napoli take the lead in €25m Gabriel Magalhães race — report

https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/chelsea-fc-transfer-rumours-news/2020/5/22/21267217/napoli-take-the-lead-in-25m-gabriel-magalhaes-race-report

If this price is true some team can buy Gabriel and Upamecano for only 65m euros (58.2m pounds) this summer and set CB positions for a decade!

now you are thinking like a boss

welcome to the club

[BlueLyon 9,359]

17 hours ago, Jason said:

It's ironic that people praise Marina when she is able to sell a player beyond their value and at the same time, criticize her (or say that she doesn't have football knowledge) when she buys some duds. 

She is excellent with finances, but awful as a football director in terms of building a squad for footballing reasons. Thats the difference. And we are football club first, not business for profits. I just wish we had a director like Campos, Marotta, Kenyon or that dude in liverpool forgot his name. Someone with actual knowledge in football, not just economics.

[MoroccanBlue 5,383]

1 minute ago, BlueLyon said:

She is excellent with finances, but awful as a football director in terms of building a squad for footballing reasons. 

That would be true if that was actually her job....

[Vesper 30,195]

50 minutes ago, BlueLyon said:

She is excellent with finances,

[BlueLyon 9,359]

8 hours ago, MoroccanBlue said:

That would be true if that was actually her job....

After Emenalo left she got in charge of the transfers which includes negotiating and presenting a strong plan to rebuild the squad. How was that not her job?

[BlueLyon 9,359]

7 hours ago, Vesper said:

Thats the one thing she does well. Quite few transfers were done very cheap (Kante, Ziyech, Cesc) and we sold quite a few for ridiculous money Oscar, Matic, Costa) 

[King Kante 1,643]

I have always maintained that the problem with Granny is that she appears to be someone that goes out with a set figure in her head and will only play ball if that figure is met. This works to a degree on sales as other teams will relent and pony up as they are desperate for the player; just watch Sunderland til I Die to watch how transfers are actually conducted and how desperate some chairmen/women get.

However, her biggest problem is with oncoming transfers. People say look at Cesc/Costa/Kante/Ziyech etc but everyone of her 'great buys' either a) had a set buyout clause or b )  a gentleman's agreement to leave. Hence, no/very little negotiation with a club and just convince the player which I would imagine she has less to do with as for top level players it is not completely about the money. 

However, when it comes to negotiating she will low ball and not come up from there. I know a lot of people think Conte was at fault for Summer 2017 and I agree that his targets are not great long term investments but for me asking for Vidal/Naggolain and getting Drinky/Baka or asking for Candreva and getting Zappa is not the same thing.

However, even if you do not buy the Summer 17 being Granny's fault, there is no getting away from probably the single worst transfer deal of the last ten years which was the midget, weak wristed,  t-rex armed Kepa for £72m smackers and a £170k wage for seven years. People blame TC but I seriously buy his story that he got told he could leave in the early part of 2018 then Granny told him no after the WC. I mean, at which point of negotiating with a player for the best part of two years and not getting him to re-sign, do you think the game may be up? Also, if Kepa was a well thought out plan why not move for him in Jan 18 when he had a £18m buyout and was on peanuts? My theory is she thought she would get Alisson then bulked at £54m, then thought she would strong arm TC into staying then when that didn't work, panicked as the house of cards started falling in over her head. 

 

[MoroccanBlue 5,383]

1 hour ago, BlueLyon said:

After Emenalo left she got in charge of the transfers which includes negotiating and presenting a strong plan to rebuild the squad. How was that not her job?

Building a squad for footballing reasons. 
 

She doesn’t do that. She is the chief executive of financial operations. 
 

No where in her job description does it say she identifies targets and sets the blue print of the club moving forward. Something an actual director of football does. 

[LAM09 7,056]

Building a squad for footballing reasons. 
 
She doesn’t do that. She is the chief executive of financial operations. 
 
No where in her job description does it say she identifies targets and sets the blue print of the club moving forward. Something an actual director of football does. 

This seems to be the constant discussion. No one knows for a fact who picks or signs players, so either view doesn't hold much weight.

[MoroccanBlue 5,383]

1 hour ago, LAM09 said:

2 hours ago, MoroccanBlue said:

Building a squad for footballing reasons. 
 
She doesn’t do that. She is the chief executive of financial operations. 
 
No where in her job description does it say she identifies targets and sets the blue print of the club moving forward. Something an actual director of football does. 

This seems to be the constant discussion. No one knows for a fact who picks or signs players, so either view doesn't hold much weight.

I find it amusing how Scott McLachlan gets off the hook. 

[Special Juan 28,141]

Mail are reporting that Bayern have missed the chance to activate Coutinho's release clause, but they say they may still sign him on loan again.

[Vesper 30,195]

9 hours ago, BlueLyon said:

Thats the one thing she does well. Quite few transfers were done very cheap (Kante, Ziyech, Cesc) and we sold quite a few for ridiculous money Oscar, Matic, Costa) 

I have combined two long posts just so we have a definitive accounting of Marina and the board's absolute shit financial acumen

 

we certainly could have had an absolute PILE of cash  if  board and Marina had not fucked about trying to rape other teams when they made decent offers for dregs and fucked up contract management which led to panic under market value sales, plus made a shit tonne of shit buys

we lost £130m combined or so via not selling Courtois and Eden in a timely fashion

Marcos Alonso Marina turned down £45m from Real, demanded £55m, now we will be DAMN lucky to get £20m, and likely less, or even nothing, I say we end up losing £30m of the 45m

Willian £65m pure loss from non sale to Barca

we are already up to £225m, just from those cockups

there is Havertz and Sancho bought right there

but it gets worse

we could have purchased Alisson in 2017 for like £50m LESS than Kepa cost in 2018, he was my number one value GK target that year (this year I have two Ugurcan Cakir and Predrag Rajkovic)

Michy Batshuayi   fucking Marina demanding £45m, grr, when we has offers for 35m, we will be lucky to get £15m, so a £20m loss versus what we should have taken

Emerson Palmieri  I will call this a £10m loss from what we could have gotten

so far up to £305m shit away

I am not dealing with Azpi or the CB's, too fluid, we have made no huge money mistakes SO FAR, and I think keeping Azpi was oki, as much as I bitch about him (mostly when we fucking play him at LB!)

the point of thsi rant is strictly money shit away, NOT how much money we can raise by selling players who we need now IF we do not buy anyone (so I am not listing any CB's or Kante, or Jorginho, etc)

so onto the cockups

Bakayoko  we fucking should have taken the reduced £35m offers and called it a day, NOT have fucking Marina demand £42m grrrr, I think we lose £15m of the 35m, so a £20m loss

Drinkwater end of day, counting Salary, we will lose (at minum) £50m (CUNTS all-round!, him, the board, Marina can all fuck right off)

up now to £375m shit away

Moses, we will lose around £15m versus a timely sale high price of £20m we should have done multiple years ago

Pedro I am going to put down as a wash, we got fair use out of him, and never really could have sold him for any sort of big quid

Baba Rahman £20m minimum, shit away

Kenedy  £15m loss minimum versus a timely sale

Zappacosta probably around £10m shit away

Higs, completely shit away over £17m

I cannot count Marco van Ginkel, we and he just had tragic bad luck with massive injuries

Luiz around £23m shit away versus us turning down 35m ) (£32m at the time) euros from PSG in 2018 and the 9m or so we got

£475m shit away in total cockups since summer of 2017, just from those listed in what we got or what we wasted, that is all money we could have had to spend on replacements

even if I am off by a massive £75m (not a chance) it is still £400m down the loo, never to return

and that pile of quid doesn't count sales revenue from other players we might sell, so YES, we so could have easily had both, even after buying replacements for some of those dregs or poor priced sales or good or great players

NOW, to be fair

let's tally up her 'above normal profits' deals  along with the board's decisions (and to do this I have to go back 2 window further than my summer of 2017 onward £475m in cock-ups calculation)

I am going to very generous as well

we got (arguably as Conte cocked it all up, and I think we could have sold him for close  to what Atleti paid, IF we had sold him straight away in the summer of 2017, coming off a great season with us as champions)  £15m more than he was worth AT THE TIME for Costa 

we got (and China was paying insane money at the time, so the main thing that was great was that we took the cash) £19m more than Oscar was worth (again I am being very generous with these profits) we got £54m and he was worth around £35m

We also ripped off Sunderland for around £6m for Papy Djilobodji

We got around £10m more than we should have for Matic (Mou wanted him bad)

I will be generous and say we basically broke even on Square, as we only lost £4m overall (counting loan fees and the £18m sale, as he was older)

Morata I will be really generous again and say we made £15m than he was worth

Ake is a wash, becuase even though he is worth far more than we sold him for, we did put in a option to buy,and did not use it, so I give this a zero loss (as I am strictly dealing with sales prices versus relative values)

so (as those are all the 'good' sales from the time period)

add all that up

£65m to the good

so knock my  £475m down to £410m in cockups

BUT (and I am sure you know where I am going next)

Mo Mo MO Salah

SMDH

we sold him (counting loan fees) for around a £6.5m profit, BUT no option (just like De Bruyne, grrrr) so, just taking his Roma to Victimpool sale price, we lost a net £17m, and if you look at hsi value now (pre Covid) we lost over £100m in potential value (we can figure the true cost when Liverpool sells him, BUT, that does NOT take into account the fucking MASSIVE difference he would have made as our LWer for all those years)

so even giving Marina and the board, every benefit of the doubt, we are down £410m (that counting all her 'great deals) PLUS whatever massive value you assign to the Salah cock-up (do not even get me started on De Bruyne and the board and Mou) I also am not going to get into Kante, as COVID-19 has fucked that all to hell, and also Jorginho (I am sure it sis bullshit, but multiple reports were saying a £35m sale to Juve, which is madness)

bottom line, is, over the past 4 years, when you give Salah a decent valuation, Marina and/or the board (and the scouting department, they are far from blameless as well) are still completely on track for damn near half a billion quid shit away, in a truly wondrous variety of dodgy ways. even taking into account all the speculative profits off the always-referenced 'wonder deals' above

 

[Blues Forever 1,232]

27 minutes ago, Special Juan said:

Mail are reporting that Bayern have missed the chance to activate Coutinho's release clause, but they say they may still sign him on loan again.

Doubt it, there's no reason why Bayern need Coutinho again. Flick clearly preferred Muller and the boards including Salihamidzic and Rummenigge want Havertz instead.

[NikkiCFC 8,325]

11 hours ago, BlueLyon said:

After Emenalo left she got in charge of the transfers which includes negotiating and presenting a strong plan to rebuild the squad. How was that not her job?

I said this many times and I still think that Marina does not have football knowledge so she does not pick targets because she did not even heard about players we signed recently.

She just negotiate deals...

But I like our direction since Emenalo left.

Last 4 signings he bought: Bakayoko, Drinkwater, Morata, Zappacosta. So that was horrible! MOST HORRIBLE TRANSFER WINDOW EVER!

After that still with Conte in January we bought for around 50m Barkley, Emerson and Giroud. That was not bad. 

Giroud is still great servant at the club. Had huge part in winning FA CUP and EL. So he paid off. Still very decent backup, was great in some recent games.

Emerson was nice try, it did not end how we hopped but if reports are true we will get our money back, even more. Had good spell here also.

Barkley for 15m was bargain. I like him, solid squad player.

After that comes Sarri and change of philosophy which is still in place. Jorginho, Kovacic, Kepa, Pulisic, Ziyech. I like them all. Ziyech aside because he is still not here all my favorite players. Also I feel confident with all of them starting.

Yes Kepa had bad spell but he is going back we just need better backup. I think he will surprise many who lost hope in him.

Plus we got RLC and many other academy players who are so promising! CHO, James, Gilmour, Mount, Abraham, Tomori. This saves us tons of money! So if Roman did not invest in best Academy where we would be?

We need to forget summer 2017 and other horrid buys/not sales like Willian. I really doubt anyone ever offered us big money for Alonso, Michy, Bakayoko because we would sell. Not reliable sources ever reported this.

Everyone would make mistakes, absolutely everyone! Someone else in charge would give Sanchez that crazy salary he get in UTD and where would that leave us now? Or spend crazy money on Bailey or Pepe? 

Or 35m on Piatek? Many wanted this.

Football is not exact science.

Couple of new players and we can challenge for title. Our stadium is what worries me more. But that is on UK government who gives Saudi killers to buy English clubs and do not let in country Roman who did so much for England football!

 

[Vesper 30,195]

28 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

I said this many times and I still think that Marina does not have football knowledge so she does not pick targets because she did not even heard about players we signed recently.

She just negotiate deals...

But I like our direction since Emenalo left.

Last 4 signings he bought: Bakayoko, Drinkwater, Morata, Zappacosta. So that was horrible! MOST HORRIBLE TRANSFER WINDOW EVER!

After that still with Conte in January we bought for around 50m Barkley, Emerson and Giroud. That was not bad. 

Giroud is still great servant at the club. Had huge part in winning FA CUP and EL. So he paid off. Still very decent backup, was great in some recent games.

Emerson was nice try, it did not end how we hopped but if reports are true we will get our money back, even more. Had good spell here also.

Barkley for 15m was bargain. I like him, solid squad player.

After that comes Sarri and change of philosophy which is still in place. Jorginho, Kovacic, Kepa, Pulisic, Ziyech. I like them all. Ziyech aside because he is still not here all my favorite players. Also I feel confident with all of them starting.

Yes Kepa had bad spell but he is going back we just need better backup. I think he will surprise many who lost hope in him.

Plus we got RLC and many other academy players who are so promising! CHO, James, Gilmour, Mount, Abraham, Tomori. This saves us tons of money! So if Roman did not invest in best Academy where we would be?

We need to forget summer 2017 and other horrid buys/not sales like Willian. I really doubt anyone ever offered us big money for Alonso, Michy, Bakayoko because we would sell. Not reliable sources ever reported this.

Everyone would make mistakes, absolutely everyone! Someone else in charge would give Sanchez that crazy salary he get in UTD and where would that leave us now? Or spend crazy money on Bailey or Pepe? 

Or 35m on Piatek? Many wanted this.

Football is not exact science.

Couple of new players and we can challenge for title. Our stadium is what worries me more. But that is on UK government who gives Saudi killers to buy English clubs and do not let in country Roman who did so much for England football!

 

my issue with Maria is her shit sales, non sales, foot dragging, ridiculous price setting, and her shit contractual management , plus she gets PWNED by multiple Italian clubs (as did Emenalo) I fucking HATE Juve

it is why my full blast posts always say Marina PLUS the board (and the older shit buys by default fall on Michael Emenalo as well)

the buys (completed) of late have been fine overall (but she is not in charge of targeting)

but we are now paying the iron price for the cumulative cock-ups of 2016-17 and onward

 

[milka 3,393]

 

[Vesper 30,195]

2 minutes ago, milka said:

 

of course it is, lololol

his salary is insane

hard pass

we are cray to help bail out Barca

let the fuckers stay on the rack

[Vesper 30,195]

we still have £127m in the kitty to the good (strictly speaking of net transfer funds after the Kovacic and Ziyech buys, and this assumes we only end up getting £90m TOTAL for Eden, ie. we get zero add-ons for my numbers here)

we could buy BOTH Dayot Upamecano AND Gabriel Magalhães for only £57m total spend (based off multiple quoted prices from many many articles)

swap Emerson for Alex Sandro (yes he only has 2 or probably 3 good years left, but now Emerson, post COVID-19 is worth shit, less than 20m and Sandro is a massive upgrade even at 29yo, and for perspective he is a month younger than Alonso ) for zero net

and buy BOTH Sanch and Havertz (I think £170m would get it down now in this market)

and nothing more (buy wise)

£227m minus the £127m in the kitty

yields £100m net spend so far

sell AC and Zouma ( around £55m to £60m total (split the difference, make it £57m, so it covers the 2 new CB's) <<< sell em both to the head chopper if they buy Newcastle, lolol (only half joking btw)

yields a net spend of £43m

plus whatever of the dregs (Bats (20m), Baba (5m), Baka (20m), Moses (5m), Kenedy (5m), Drinkwater,(£5m and wages off the books etc) we can do (even at a cheap price, that is on the board) that 60m or so right here if all are sold for those prices, but call it $43m at end of the day to be conservative (fucking madness as we could have had over £105m for those cunts if Marina had just sold at offered prices)

 

we are now at zero net spend TOTAL  if we sell enough dregs (I listed 6, we have other tiny ones too to dump) at bargain basement prices to equal £43m

 

Havertz can play rotationally at CF if need be, until we decide next summer what to do if need be

boom

even taking massive losses on the ones listed, due to non sales by fucking Marina, the reduced prices balance shit out somewhat

 

AND

I did not even talk about selling Jorginho (Juve want him BAD)

Kante refusing to play may fuck that (Jorginho sale) up though, grrrrrr

 

but my point is we can bring both our dream targets in (Sancho and Havertz) and TWO masssssssive upgrades at CB

and a massive upgrade (for zero net spend, even if it only for 3 years) at LB

for super doable final total price of close to zero net 

we also could work out a combo of swap and a sale for both Alonso and Emerson and buy/swap for BOTH Telles and get Sandro still for almost a zero net spend at the end of the day, many options

damn shame we are doing nothing for backup keeper it looks like

I would even love to get Vicente Guaita in from Palace, massive upgrade on soon 39yo Willy and he would cost fuckall, so toss him in there as well, he won't cost shit and my numbers allow that to work out as well, still at zero or damn near zero net spend. Even if I am a tad off, the most I can possible see all of this costing at the end of the day is a £20m to £30m MAX for ALL, and a Jorginho sale wipes out all doubt, and we would even up turning a PROFIT.

Remove Sanco until next summer and we are talking a huge NET profit, even more if we sell Jorginho.