Tomo 21,751 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 On 19/03/2021 at 18:05, Vesper said: We have a puncher's chance to at least get to the final, and in a one off game (think 2012) anything can happen. GREAT DRAW To whisper ir quietly any of those three likely opponents in the final may suit us if we get there. Bayern leave a shit loads of space in behind we can exploit, TT has already demonstrated he can tactically combat them and him and Silva will be so hungry to avenge last year on a personal level. PSG will feel the same anxiety we use to in this competition before we finally done it (I still feel tense about what's to come but not even half as much as I was before we had one in the bag already), although as the situation with TT and Silva they could also come into it doubly determined after last year. Hopefully Pochettino's track record of crumbling in the crunch continues if it's them in the final. Likewise City will have that anxiety there of needing to do it for the first time which will hopefully play to our advantage. Funnily enough the one that may suit us the least is Dortmund, a team fully embracing the underdog tag plus Haaland and Sancho up front has danger written all over it. Vesper 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway 1,333 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Current Elo ratings from clubelo.com: Man. City = 2022 Dortmund = 1814 Porto =1798 Chelsea = 1894 Bayern = 2015 PSG = 1859 Real Madrid = 1913 Liverpool = 1904 Probability analysis based on those ratings gives the following results (probability and fair price in parenthesis) finalists pairs Man. City - Porto 5.5% (18.24) Man. City - Chelsea 12% (8.33) Man. City - Real Madrid 12% (8.32) Man. City - Liverpool 11% (9.09) Dortmund - Porto 1.3% (77) Dortmund - Chelsea 2.8% (35.15) Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.8% (35.14) Dortmund - Liverpool 2.6% (38.35) Bayern - Porto 5% (20) Bayern - Chelsea 11% (9.13) Bayern - Real Madrid 11% (9.13) Bayern - Liverpool 10% (9.96) PSG - Porto 1.8% (57.07) PSG - Chelsea 3.8% (26.06) PSG - Real Madrid 3.8% (26.04) PSG - Liverpool 3.5% (28.43) winner Man. City 26.3% (3.81) Dortmund 3.9% (25.86) Porto 4.2% (23.76) Chelsea 12.1% (8.29) Bayern 23.7% (4.22) PSG 5.9% (16.96) Real Madrid 12.6% (7.91) Liverpool 11.3% (8.82) It appears Bayern is the somewhat attractive bet (the bookies offer 4.50). Finalists pairs they do not offer. I suspect however that PSG is underrated. It should be 1950 or threabouts. If this is true then the table is modified and PSG and also Real become also attractive (9.00 and 11.00 at the bookies respectively). Modified table with PSG at 1950: finalists pairs Man. City - Porto 5.3% (18.96) Man. City - Chelsea 11.6% (8.66) Man. City - Real Madrid 11.6% (8.65) Man. City - Liverpool 10.6% (9.44) Dortmund - Porto 1.2% (83.41) Dortmund - Chelsea 2.6% (38.08) Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.6% (38.06) Dortmund - Liverpool 2.4% (41.55) Bayern - Porto 4.3% (23.02) Bayern - Chelsea 9.5% (10.51) Bayern - Real Madrid 9.5% (10.51) Bayern - Liverpool 8.7% (11.47) PSG - Porto 2.7% (36.82) PSG - Chelsea 5.9% (16.81) PSG - Real Madrid 6% (16.8) PSG - Liverpool 5.5% (18.34) winner Man. City 25.3% (3.96) Dortmund 3.6% (28.01) Porto 4.1% (24.49) Chelsea 11.7% (8.58) Bayern 20.6% (4.85) PSG 11.6% (8.59) Real Madrid 12.2% (8.18) Liverpool 11% (9.12) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase 43,479 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 cc @Milan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase 43,479 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Bild reporting that Xabi Alonso will be the new Gladbach manager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase 43,479 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Seems like Porto have been making more noise about the draw than us since it was made... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Armour 4,439 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, Jason said: Seems like Porto have been making more noise about the draw than us since it was made... Shades of Jorge Jesus and his comments about our tie against Benfica in 2012... Edited March 23, 2021 by Blue Armour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomiswave 6,117 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 23 hours ago, Jason said: Seems like Porto have been making more noise about the draw than us since it was made... Yeah saw that yesterday, what an absolute baffoon, how in the fuck would you know such a thing anyway. I talked to them he said, yeah right. Fucking idiot, just for this sacrilege I hope we turn you over big time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway 1,333 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Porto under Mourinho eliminated us, did n't they ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beigl 1,387 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Just now, cosmicway said: Porto under Mourinho eliminated us, did n't they ? No United, we got eliminated by Monaco that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZAPHOD2319 4,818 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Dying on the pitch is going to be a little more difficult with two of their starters missing the first game. We knew they would give everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway 1,333 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 We did not really say they are pushovers like Jeunesse Esch but they are rated below all of the other six. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDA 9,939 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Alot of people are tipping City to win the CL this year but I still think they might fall short. Why Liverpool aren't being mentioned is beyond me... their current crop of players have already won it and I honestly feel their current league form will not affect their chances of a CL run to the final. Then you have PSG and the favourites Byern. If we are going to win it... we need to bring our very best A-game in every single match and pray the footballing Gods are with us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway 1,333 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 6 hours ago, DDA said: Alot of people are tipping City to win the CL this year but I still think they might fall short. Why Liverpool aren't being mentioned is beyond me... their current crop of players have already won it and I honestly feel their current league form will not affect their chances of a CL run to the final. Then you have PSG and the favourites Byern. If we are going to win it... we need to bring our very best A-game in every single match and pray the footballing Gods are with us. PSG are having to face two beasts, Bayern and City but I think they are also underrated by the bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomiswave 6,117 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, cosmicway said: PSG are having to face two beasts, Bayern and City but I think they are also underrated by the bookies. I will be kinda surprised if they go through both them teams, its a big ask even though PSG have a quality squad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmicway 1,333 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Atomiswave said: I will be kinda surprised if they go through both them teams, its a big ask even though PSG have a quality squad. It's a similarly big ask of City and Bayern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomiswave 6,117 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, cosmicway said: It's a similarly big ask of City and Bayern. City has it easier than the other 2, Dortmund wont be a struggle for Pep. Let them fuck eachother up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NikkiCFC 8,320 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 And we all forgot that City should not even play CL but they bribed CAS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoroccanBlue 5,382 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said: And we all forgot that City should not even play CL but they bribed CAS... Much like in the Haaland thread, is there a link you can provide that proves this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NikkiCFC 8,320 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said: Much like in the Haaland thread, is there a link you can provide that proves this? UEFA banned City for 2 years without European footy. They went to CAS later and from 3 judges there 2 voted in City favor and one against. Later was confirmed that 2 of those judges had connection to City. If just one of them was neutral they would not play now. You said what you said in Haaland thread but then why this one guy voted against City? And I dont need UEFA, FIFA, CAS or anyone to tell what they are doing is illegal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoroccanBlue 5,382 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said: UEFA banned City for 2 years without European footy. They went to CAS later and from 3 judges there 2 voted in City favor and one against. Later was confirmed that 2 of those judges had connection to City. If just one of them was neutral they would not play now. You said what you said in Haaland thread but then why this one guy voted against City? And I dont need UEFA, FIFA, CAS or anyone to tell what they are doing is illegal. 🤔 The part in bold has me suspect because that would be conflict of interest. Again, is there anything concrete or substantial that proves they had connections and why this wasn't considered conflict of interest? Where is the evidence of the bribe? From what I read from CAS, ADUG funded City in both 2012 and 2013. The statute of limitations is 5 years, to which these allegations weren't formally brought up until 2019. That is 6 years. This didn't fall under the statute of limitations, hence why those judges dropped the charges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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