Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 28,418]

Josko Gvardiol suggests he is eager to follow Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea after failed summer move

Josko Gvardiol has suggested he wants to follow RB Leipzig teammate Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea and ‘struggled’ after failing to get his move to Stamford Bridge last summer. 

https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/19/josko-gvardiol-suggests-he-is-eager-to-follow-christopher-nkunku-to-Chelsea-after-failed-summer-move-18310835/

Chelsea were eager to sign the Croatia international during the summer and reportedly saw a huge bid of £77million rejected by Leipzig in the final days of the window.

Leipzig refused to sell however, with Gvardiol going onto enjoy a superb World Cup campaign where his reputation grew further after a string of excellent displays in Qatar.

In an interview with The Times, the 21-year-old explained he was initially comfortable with Leipzig’s decision to keep him at the club for another season.

But interest from Chelsea in late August left him unsettled with a move to the Premier League his goal later down the line.

‘I was really confused because one month before the window starts I was upstairs with the sporting director and he says, ‘Yeah Josko, we are not going to sell you, we need you, we believe in you,’ and I was like ok I am fine with this, I can stay here, I like it here, all I need is to work on myself, to play, to win something else. It was like this until the last two days,’ he said.

‘My agent called me and said that Chelsea is extremely interested and, of course, you definitely think about a serious offer from a huge club like Chelsea. Leipzig said they didn’t want to sell me.

‘In the end I really struggled with that decision but we didn’t make an agreement. It is what it is.

‘I am here and I am fine with this because my idea had been to stay here. One season was not enough. This is my second season, even one more season would be great but we will see.”

Chelsea have already done business with Leipzig this season having agreed a deal to sign Nkunku this summer in a deal for a reported £52million.

Having played alongside the ‘unbelievable’ Frenchman, Gvardiol is eager to continue playing alongside him.

‘I have never seen before a player like Christoph, he is unbelievable,’ Gvardiol said.

‘Every time I talk with someone about him I always say wherever he goes I want to go with him.’

 

[Vesper 28,418]

Josko Gvardiol: I want to play in the Premier League

The Croatia defender was a star at the World Cup and tells Tom Roddy that he wants to play in the Premier League as he prepares to face Manchester City with RB Leipzig in the Champions League

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/josko-gvardiol-i-want-to-play-in-the-premier-league-7m9x5jhh9

Josko Gvardiol playfully rolls his eyes when the subject is raised of the video that went viral. Despite the RB Leipzig defender only turning 21 last month, he has many tales to tell — from a childhood in Croatia helping his father sell fish to almost quitting football four years ago, his troubles adjusting in the Bundesliga to the two occasions he came so close to a career goal of moving to the Premier League, first with Leeds United and then Chelsea.

But there’s only one place to begin with Gvardiol. Many in the football family knew of his huge potential, yet admiration truly widened at a World Cup in which the centre back excelled against almost every opponent; all but the one who departed Qatar with immortality.

“Of course I’ve seen it — many, many times,” he says of the footage, filmed by a spectator in the stands and viewed more than 70 million times on social media, of Lionel Messi jinking this way and that, shaking off Gvardiol before dribbling away from the young defender to set up Argentina’s third goal and a place in the final.

 

“Everyone does mistakes and it’s normal for me to make it. It was hard to stop Messi but we did it a few times. Of course we are trying to reduce this as much as possible but we are also 2-0 down, just trying to score a goal to get back in the game. We were defending with only me and [Dejan] Lovren so only two players.”

Growing up, Gvardiol pined to play in the Premier League after watching games with his Liverpool-supporting father, Tihomir, but he idolised Messi and Sergio Ramos, now team-mates at Paris Saint-Germain but for so long great rivals in Spain’s La Liga.

“I was a big fan of [Messi] growing up because when he has the ball it is just art. Whatever he does it looks so simple, but actually it’s not. I am afraid that we will not see something similar to this kind of player again in the future.”

Perhaps not, but European football’s next great rivalry may emerge this week. On Wednesday, Gvardiol will come up against Erling Haaland as Manchester City travel to east Germany for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie. They have competed against each other once before, in the Bundesliga, and Gvardiol explains why he got the better of Haaland on that day while also naming the toughest striker he has faced so far.

But first, to training. We meet a week before City’s visit, at Leipzig’s state-of-the-art headquarters where some 600 fans have arrived to watch an open training session, feasting on steaming bratwurst while cheering on Marco Rose’s men during a frosty Tuesday morning. Gvardiol stands out. He’s the only one in short sleeves and still bears the bruising around his eyes from a broken nose suffered prior to the World Cup. “I was like a panda,” Gvardiol says.

He did not need any help standing out in Qatar. Gvardiol’s trajectory has been strikingly sharp, and so the fact that he almost quit the sport four years ago comes as a surprise. “I was 16 or 17 and still on the bench in the youth teams,” he says. “I was frustrated and, at one moment, I was thinking to leave football.”

Career options appeared limited. Gvardiol did not enjoy school and Tihomir’s work was tough, rising at 4am every day at the family’s small apartment to sell fish at market. “By the way, I hate fish,” Gvardiol says, laughing. “Imagine being 16 years old and there’s only fish to eat every day at home. I want to try something else.”

In his profession, that was not necessary. “I don’t know what happened then but afterwards I started to play and they finally saw something in me, my quality, and in one year I moved to Dinamo Zagreb’s second team. In six months I was in the first team with Dani Olmo.”

Olmo, a product of the Barcelona academy, turns out to be an influential figure in Gvardiol’s career. He made the move from Zagreb to Leipzig in January 2020, six months before Gvardiol, who had another tempting offer. “I had two options, between Leeds and Leipzig,” he says. Scouts from both clubs made a move for Gvardiol after fewer than five first-team games for Dinamo.

“[Marcelo] Bielsa was the coach and I don’t know if you know this but my goal in my career is to play in the Premier League,” he explains. “I didn’t speak with Bielsa but of course he sends a few people and they came to Zagreb. I met these guys and they show me it was something like a plan how they see me in their style of football. I mean, when they presented it everything looked good and you could maybe see yourself there in that moment.

 

“I knew that I needed to take a few steps more before I get [to the Premier League] one day. At the end Leipzig is a really good club and I feel good here. It’s important I play almost every game. I am very grateful to Dani Olmo because he was here and I spoke with him a lot of times before I decided to sign.”

When Gvardiol arrived at Leipzig, Olmo was away representing Spain at the Olympics. “After two weeks I called Dani and I said I want to go back to Croatia,” Gvardiol says, laughing. “I knew the difference between the Croatian league and Bundesliga is huge . . . but oh my God! I came here, running deep, long balls, keep running, gegenpressing. It was too much. And then, after three weeks, it became normal.”

It was towards the end of his first full season at Leipzig that Gvardiol faced Haaland, who was competing in one of his final games for Borussia Dortmund. Haaland did not score and was on the losing team.

“We played there and won 4-1 but honestly it was this period when he wanted to leave so maybe he wasn’t happy,” Gvardiol says. “I believe he is much better than what he did in that game. We have seen this season in the Premier League what he has done already, and I’m looking forward to this game because I want to play against top-class players. I believe he is one of them and is going to be even better and better.”

Gvardiol’s most challenging opponent was one who failed to live up to expectations in England — Romelu Lukaku. “He’s really big, huge,” Gvardiol says. “It’s hard to see the ball. He was in front of me and you are trying to look for the ball. The problem is that if you get close he puts his hand out, turns you and you’re out of the game. He’s powerful, I don’t know his weight but I believe it’s 100 kilos and he’s even faster than me.”

Gvardiol could have followed in Lukaku’s footsteps by signing for Chelsea last summer. The Premier League’s big spenders made their move towards the end of a summer window in which Gvardiol had not planned to leave.

“Phwoar, I was confused,” he says. “I was really confused because one month before the window starts I was upstairs with the sporting director and he says, ‘Yeah Josko, we are not going to sell you, we need you, we believe in you,’ and I was like ok I am fine with this, I can stay here, I like it here, all I need is to work on myself, to play, to win something else. It was like this until the last two days.

“My agent called me and said that Chelsea is extremely interested and, of course, you definitely think about a serious offer from a huge club like Chelsea. Leipzig said they didn’t want to sell me. In the end I really struggled with that decision but we didn’t make an agreement. It is what it is. I am here and I am fine with this because my idea had been to stay here. One season was not enough. This is my second season, even one more season would be great but we will see.”

Gvardiol’s Croatian team-mates, the Chelsea midfielder Mateo Kovacic and Tottenham Hotspur’s Ivan Perisic, have already told him about London and the Premier League. One Leipzig player destined for both is Christopher Nkunku, the France forward, who will join Chelsea in the summer in a deal which is yet to be publicly confirmed. Gvardiol is effusive in his praise of Nkunku.

“I have never seen before a player like Christoph, he is unbelievable,” Gvardiol says. “Every time I talk with someone about him I always say wherever he goes I want to go with him.”

For now, both Nkunku and Gvardiol remain, preparing to face a Pep Guardiola team determined to finally break the spell and triumph in the Champions League. The odds are against Leipzig, yet Gvardiol has learnt to ignore them.

“I always like to say in football that everything is possible. The ball is round and you see at the World Cup that Croatia, a small country with this team, got third place. In history, we have won already three medals in the World Cup. Imagine this, a country of 3.8 million people. In this game we have to be with positive thoughts and don’t be afraid of anything, believe in ourselves and our quality, and try to win.”

 

[laura90 556]

On 11/01/2023 at 00:39, Superblue said:

Pathetic

You still think so? Have you been aware of Potter's winless streaks during his career? His teams scoring records?  I have.  And that's why I said what I said. 

Other managers have trophies and good football backing them, Potter had winless streaks, low win ratio, no trophies and low scoring teams backing him. 

And yet 80+ millions were spent to hire him and his staff.  We sacked Tuchel and  hired chinese version of him for fortune.  

He is the  manager at the top club completely out of his depth. He is walking mistake. Players don't trust in him, fans don't trust in him. Only stubborn owner, obsessed with proving entire world he is not fool stands behind him.

There were other managers out of their  depth. But had something more than Potter. Ole was club legend and was respected. Lampard was club legend and was respected. Arteta in his worst days had respect.  Potter has nothing.

Come March, we will still be asking ourselves where the next point will come from. And that is truly  pathetic. Spending fortune on unproven manager and being stuck with him.

[TheHulk 1,825]

More like 15-20M.

[TheHulk 1,825]

11 hours ago, Vesper said:

Josko Gvardiol suggests he is eager to follow Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea after failed summer move

Josko Gvardiol has suggested he wants to follow RB Leipzig teammate Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea and ‘struggled’ after failing to get his move to Stamford Bridge last summer. 

https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/19/josko-gvardiol-suggests-he-is-eager-to-follow-christopher-nkunku-to-Chelsea-after-failed-summer-move-18310835/

Chelsea were eager to sign the Croatia international during the summer and reportedly saw a huge bid of £77million rejected by Leipzig in the final days of the window.

Leipzig refused to sell however, with Gvardiol going onto enjoy a superb World Cup campaign where his reputation grew further after a string of excellent displays in Qatar.

In an interview with The Times, the 21-year-old explained he was initially comfortable with Leipzig’s decision to keep him at the club for another season.

But interest from Chelsea in late August left him unsettled with a move to the Premier League his goal later down the line.

‘I was really confused because one month before the window starts I was upstairs with the sporting director and he says, ‘Yeah Josko, we are not going to sell you, we need you, we believe in you,’ and I was like ok I am fine with this, I can stay here, I like it here, all I need is to work on myself, to play, to win something else. It was like this until the last two days,’ he said.

‘My agent called me and said that Chelsea is extremely interested and, of course, you definitely think about a serious offer from a huge club like Chelsea. Leipzig said they didn’t want to sell me.

‘In the end I really struggled with that decision but we didn’t make an agreement. It is what it is.

‘I am here and I am fine with this because my idea had been to stay here. One season was not enough. This is my second season, even one more season would be great but we will see.”

Chelsea have already done business with Leipzig this season having agreed a deal to sign Nkunku this summer in a deal for a reported £52million.

Having played alongside the ‘unbelievable’ Frenchman, Gvardiol is eager to continue playing alongside him.

‘I have never seen before a player like Christoph, he is unbelievable,’ Gvardiol said.

‘Every time I talk with someone about him I always say wherever he goes I want to go with him.’

 

Hard to see it happen right now but would be pretty sad to see him sign for City or Liverpool, he is absolutely class.

[OneMoSalah 8,754]

11 hours ago, Vesper said:

Josko Gvardiol: I want to play in the Premier League

The Croatia defender was a star at the World Cup and tells Tom Roddy that he wants to play in the Premier League as he prepares to face Manchester City with RB Leipzig in the Champions League

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/josko-gvardiol-i-want-to-play-in-the-premier-league-7m9x5jhh9

Josko Gvardiol playfully rolls his eyes when the subject is raised of the video that went viral. Despite the RB Leipzig defender only turning 21 last month, he has many tales to tell — from a childhood in Croatia helping his father sell fish to almost quitting football four years ago, his troubles adjusting in the Bundesliga to the two occasions he came so close to a career goal of moving to the Premier League, first with Leeds United and then Chelsea.

But there’s only one place to begin with Gvardiol. Many in the football family knew of his huge potential, yet admiration truly widened at a World Cup in which the centre back excelled against almost every opponent; all but the one who departed Qatar with immortality.

“Of course I’ve seen it — many, many times,” he says of the footage, filmed by a spectator in the stands and viewed more than 70 million times on social media, of Lionel Messi jinking this way and that, shaking off Gvardiol before dribbling away from the young defender to set up Argentina’s third goal and a place in the final.

 

“Everyone does mistakes and it’s normal for me to make it. It was hard to stop Messi but we did it a few times. Of course we are trying to reduce this as much as possible but we are also 2-0 down, just trying to score a goal to get back in the game. We were defending with only me and [Dejan] Lovren so only two players.”

Growing up, Gvardiol pined to play in the Premier League after watching games with his Liverpool-supporting father, Tihomir, but he idolised Messi and Sergio Ramos, now team-mates at Paris Saint-Germain but for so long great rivals in Spain’s La Liga.

“I was a big fan of [Messi] growing up because when he has the ball it is just art. Whatever he does it looks so simple, but actually it’s not. I am afraid that we will not see something similar to this kind of player again in the future.”

Perhaps not, but European football’s next great rivalry may emerge this week. On Wednesday, Gvardiol will come up against Erling Haaland as Manchester City travel to east Germany for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie. They have competed against each other once before, in the Bundesliga, and Gvardiol explains why he got the better of Haaland on that day while also naming the toughest striker he has faced so far.

But first, to training. We meet a week before City’s visit, at Leipzig’s state-of-the-art headquarters where some 600 fans have arrived to watch an open training session, feasting on steaming bratwurst while cheering on Marco Rose’s men during a frosty Tuesday morning. Gvardiol stands out. He’s the only one in short sleeves and still bears the bruising around his eyes from a broken nose suffered prior to the World Cup. “I was like a panda,” Gvardiol says.

He did not need any help standing out in Qatar. Gvardiol’s trajectory has been strikingly sharp, and so the fact that he almost quit the sport four years ago comes as a surprise. “I was 16 or 17 and still on the bench in the youth teams,” he says. “I was frustrated and, at one moment, I was thinking to leave football.”

Career options appeared limited. Gvardiol did not enjoy school and Tihomir’s work was tough, rising at 4am every day at the family’s small apartment to sell fish at market. “By the way, I hate fish,” Gvardiol says, laughing. “Imagine being 16 years old and there’s only fish to eat every day at home. I want to try something else.”

In his profession, that was not necessary. “I don’t know what happened then but afterwards I started to play and they finally saw something in me, my quality, and in one year I moved to Dinamo Zagreb’s second team. In six months I was in the first team with Dani Olmo.”

Olmo, a product of the Barcelona academy, turns out to be an influential figure in Gvardiol’s career. He made the move from Zagreb to Leipzig in January 2020, six months before Gvardiol, who had another tempting offer. “I had two options, between Leeds and Leipzig,” he says. Scouts from both clubs made a move for Gvardiol after fewer than five first-team games for Dinamo.

“[Marcelo] Bielsa was the coach and I don’t know if you know this but my goal in my career is to play in the Premier League,” he explains. “I didn’t speak with Bielsa but of course he sends a few people and they came to Zagreb. I met these guys and they show me it was something like a plan how they see me in their style of football. I mean, when they presented it everything looked good and you could maybe see yourself there in that moment.

 

“I knew that I needed to take a few steps more before I get [to the Premier League] one day. At the end Leipzig is a really good club and I feel good here. It’s important I play almost every game. I am very grateful to Dani Olmo because he was here and I spoke with him a lot of times before I decided to sign.”

When Gvardiol arrived at Leipzig, Olmo was away representing Spain at the Olympics. “After two weeks I called Dani and I said I want to go back to Croatia,” Gvardiol says, laughing. “I knew the difference between the Croatian league and Bundesliga is huge . . . but oh my God! I came here, running deep, long balls, keep running, gegenpressing. It was too much. And then, after three weeks, it became normal.”

It was towards the end of his first full season at Leipzig that Gvardiol faced Haaland, who was competing in one of his final games for Borussia Dortmund. Haaland did not score and was on the losing team.

“We played there and won 4-1 but honestly it was this period when he wanted to leave so maybe he wasn’t happy,” Gvardiol says. “I believe he is much better than what he did in that game. We have seen this season in the Premier League what he has done already, and I’m looking forward to this game because I want to play against top-class players. I believe he is one of them and is going to be even better and better.”

Gvardiol’s most challenging opponent was one who failed to live up to expectations in England — Romelu Lukaku. “He’s really big, huge,” Gvardiol says. “It’s hard to see the ball. He was in front of me and you are trying to look for the ball. The problem is that if you get close he puts his hand out, turns you and you’re out of the game. He’s powerful, I don’t know his weight but I believe it’s 100 kilos and he’s even faster than me.”

Gvardiol could have followed in Lukaku’s footsteps by signing for Chelsea last summer. The Premier League’s big spenders made their move towards the end of a summer window in which Gvardiol had not planned to leave.

“Phwoar, I was confused,” he says. “I was really confused because one month before the window starts I was upstairs with the sporting director and he says, ‘Yeah Josko, we are not going to sell you, we need you, we believe in you,’ and I was like ok I am fine with this, I can stay here, I like it here, all I need is to work on myself, to play, to win something else. It was like this until the last two days.

“My agent called me and said that Chelsea is extremely interested and, of course, you definitely think about a serious offer from a huge club like Chelsea. Leipzig said they didn’t want to sell me. In the end I really struggled with that decision but we didn’t make an agreement. It is what it is. I am here and I am fine with this because my idea had been to stay here. One season was not enough. This is my second season, even one more season would be great but we will see.”

Gvardiol’s Croatian team-mates, the Chelsea midfielder Mateo Kovacic and Tottenham Hotspur’s Ivan Perisic, have already told him about London and the Premier League. One Leipzig player destined for both is Christopher Nkunku, the France forward, who will join Chelsea in the summer in a deal which is yet to be publicly confirmed. Gvardiol is effusive in his praise of Nkunku.

“I have never seen before a player like Christoph, he is unbelievable,” Gvardiol says. “Every time I talk with someone about him I always say wherever he goes I want to go with him.”

For now, both Nkunku and Gvardiol remain, preparing to face a Pep Guardiola team determined to finally break the spell and triumph in the Champions League. The odds are against Leipzig, yet Gvardiol has learnt to ignore them.

“I always like to say in football that everything is possible. The ball is round and you see at the World Cup that Croatia, a small country with this team, got third place. In history, we have won already three medals in the World Cup. Imagine this, a country of 3.8 million people. In this game we have to be with positive thoughts and don’t be afraid of anything, believe in ourselves and our quality, and try to win.”

 

Might as well sell Colwill then. Unless Boehly wants us to play 5-3-3 with an extra CB 😂

I mean we cannot sign everyone under the age of 21 who is particularly good because we already have about 13 players for each position now.

Sales of higher profile players such as Lukaku, Ziyech, Pulisic should be the priority this summer (although we all know the first priority should be a new manager) before we even look at buying another 12 footballers.

Edited February 20, 2023 by OneMoSalah

[TheHulk 1,825]

26 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

Might as well sell Colwill then. Unless Boehly wants us to play 5-3-3 with an extra CB 😂

I mean we cannot sign everyone under the age of 21 who is particularly good because we already have about 13 players for each position now.

Sales of higher profile players such as Lukaku, Ziyech, Pulisic should be the priority this summer (although we all know the first priority should be a new manager) before we even look at buying another 12 footballers.

Depends if he can play RCB just as good if Koulibaly and Chalobah leave he has a place I think. Would also fix some of our headaches at left back as well.

Edited February 20, 2023 by TheHulk

[Fulham Broadway 16,713]

We have a history of getting strikers at the wrong end of their career. 

Pat Nevin, who was advocating getting the Drogs all those years ago reckons 'I would get Victor Osimhen from Napoli if it was up to me.'

[LAM09 6,701]

On 19/02/2023 at 10:37, Reddish-Blue said:

As for Mudryk, I still don't get why we signed him.   Could have spent that money on a midfield partner for Enzo in the next transfer window. 

There were rumours that we had no interest in him until we lost to Fulham. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there was some truth to it.

[Vesper 28,418]

The CIES Football Observatory research team is pleased to announce the publication of a ground-breaking report that reveals for the first time the inflation of player prices. Over the last decade, player prices have increased at an annual rate of 9%. A footballer paid €1 million in 2013/14 now costs €2.16 million (+116%).

The prices of players recruited by English Premier League clubs have risen more sharply than those of footballers hired by teams outside this competition: on average +12.2% per year compared to +8.4%. Inflation was also particularly marked for centre backs (+12.5% per annum), full backs (+11.1%), as well as for players aged 21 or under (+12.7%).

Overall, all else being equal, player prices increased at an annual rate of 13.8% between the 2013/14 and 2019/20 seasons, and then by -0.2% in the three seasons following the pandemic. However, after falling sharply in 2021/22, player prices resumed their growth in 2022/23, suggesting a rapid return to record levels.

In terms of investment volume, the total of €9.12 billion measured in 2022/23 is the second highest since the record season of 2019/2020. The rebound in 2021/22 from the sharp decline in the pandemic-affected 2020/21 season has thus continued into the current season, with even a new record for a winter transfer window in January 2023, largely driven by Premier League teams’ spending.

>>> Access the Report

CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report
n°82 - February 2023

Inflation in the football players’ transfer market
(2013/14-2022/23)

1. Introduction

This report analyses the transfer fees invested over the past ten seasons by clubs worldwide so as to measure the evolution of the sums involved (first chapter) and the inflation at the level of players’ prices (second chapter). The latter is measured both in a global manner for all footballers whatever their characteristics, as well as for particular market segments. These segments were determined according to the position of players transferred, their age at the time of transfer, as well as the geographical zone of recruiting clubs.

All the data analysed stems from research work carried out by the CIES Football Observatory. They include, as far as possible, both the fixed transfer fees and conditional payments. The first part also considers fees for paying loans. The comparison with the figures published each year by FIFA TMS for international transfers indicate a slight tendency to underestimate, without however, the results presented here being affected.

2. Sums involved

The sums paid out by clubs to recruit players has increased almost continually between the 2013/14 and 2019/20 seasons, before dropping dramatically during the 2020/21 season due to the pandemic. A resumption was observed from the following season and the value recorded during the current one is the second highest of the last decade. Throughout the period, we also observe a progressive increase in the percentage of sums committed conditionally by clubs. Henceforth, the latter account for more than 15% of the total amount of fees.

The growth in the sums committed by clubs is explained both by the increase in paid transfers, even though probably a little overestimated due to some data lacking for the first seasons studied, and the inflation of prices, though it is important to keeping in mind the increasing proportion of sums negotiated conditionally as mentioned above and illustrated in Figure 2.

The average fee for transfers identified including conditional payments has gone from €3.17 million in 2013/14 to a peak of €5.01 million in 2019/20, to then fall and increase again during current season’s transfer windows. Though relatively less important, an increase was also registered without considering add-ons: from €3.07 million in 2013/14 to a maximum of €4.57 million in 2019/20.

The distribution of clubs’ investments on the transfer market according to the position of players recruited shows the relative increase in the amounts paid for footballers not playing as forwards. Forwards remain, however, the most sought-after players on the transfer market, accounting for almost half of the sums committed by clubs over the last five seasons studied (as opposed to 56.5% during the five previous ones).

By category of age, we observe a relative increase in the sums paid for players 21 years of age or younger at the time of the transfer, as well as for footballers between 22 and 25 years of age, with respect to investments carried out for players aged between 26 and 29 years. This change is part of the generalisation of the player trading strategy, through which a growing number of clubs aim to generate profits on the transfer market within a context of increasing economic segmentation.

With regard to the geographical zone of recruiting clubs, the principle changes were observed after the pandemic. The health crisis did indeed accelerate the economic domination of English Premier League clubs, more solid and resilient than teams from other championships, including those from other big-5 leagues. From an average of 25.4% between 2013/14 and 2019/20, the percentage of investments of the English top division clubs on the transfer market increased to 35.5% after the health crisis, to attain a new record of 40.2% for the current season.

3. Price inflation

The inflation of the price of players was calculated on the basis of a statistical model built from a total of 5,244 paid transactions concluded between 2013/14 and 2022/23. As indicated in this scientific article, the transfer values estimated through the econometric model, comprising variables such as the players’ age, contract duration, performance, results of employer teams, etc., are correlated at over 80% with the fees actually invested by clubs.

The high level of correlation measured between values estimated and fees paid indicates, on one hand, that market actors generally follow coherent strategies in determining players’ transfer indemnities, and, on the other hand, that these strategies are well captured by the variables included in the statistical model developed.

The inflation of transfer prices for players with similar characteristics, or, to put it another way, all other things being equal, is determined from the “season” variable. To determine inflation according to market segments, we have built as many statistical models as the number of categories taken into account, whether at the level of position (five categories), players’ age (four categories) or recruiting clubs’ geographical zone (three categories). In all cases, the correlations between values estimated and actual fees is at least 75%.

At the level of all transactions recorded, the average annual inflation during the past ten seasons is 9.0%. This average was at 13.8% between the 2013/14 and 2019/20 seasons, then -0.2% during the three seasons following the pandemic, with an initial increase within the context of a sharp drop in the number of paying-fee transfers, a strong decrease, then a rebound. Over the whole period, the inflation of players’ transfer prices was 116% add-ons included and 90% without taking conditional payments into consideration.

Contrary to the volume of investments, where the impact was immediate, from the point of view of player prices, the effects of the pandemic were mainly felt during the 2021/22 season. In 2022/23, however, a new increase in player prices all other things being equal was recorded. In a strongly speculative context characterised by numerous transactions, with the wealthy English Premier League clubs at the end of global transfer chains, prices seem destined to return to record levels in the near future.

Rather than at the level of prices, the main impact of the health crisis in the longer term will likely be of having accelerated the tendency of clubs to include sell-on percentages in the deals. Like for conditional payments, this strategy enables buying clubs to reduce the financial costs and risks associated with transfers and selling clubs to receive more funds than they could have hoped for immediately in a subsequent transfer.

The inflation of transfer prices over the past decade was spread out differently according to market segment. Regarding player position, in comparison to the 2013/14 season, prices have mainly increased for centre backs (12.5% of annual inflation) and full backs (11.1%). The smallest increase was for goalkeepers (5.2%), while an inflation figure of a similar level, slightly above 8%, was recorded for both midfielders and forwards.

Significant differences in the inflation of transfer prices were also recorded according to the players’ age. We observe a progressive drop in inflation in parallel with an increase in the age of footballers transferred. Thus, the price of players aged 21 or under at the time of transfer have, on average, increased by 12.8% annually over the past decade. This figure is 9.8% for players transferred between 22 and 25 years of age, dropping to 7.0% for those aged between 26 and 29, and finally to 3.6% for footballers aged 30 or over. The latter category has also seen the biggest post pandemic deflation.

At the level of the geographical zone of recruitment, the principle difference observed was between English Premier League clubs and teams from the rest of the world. The inflation of prices for transfers to the former was indeed greater than that recorded for transfers to the latter: 12.6% as opposed to 8.5% for clubs in other big-5 leagues and 7.7% for remaining teams worldwide.

4. Conclusion

The sums involved in the transfer of players by professional football clubs worldwide has strongly increased over the past decade. The total of about €9 billion measured for the 2022/23 season is the second highest since the record 2019/20 season. The rebound seen in 2021/22 after the strong drop noted in 2020/21 has therefore continued during the current season, with even a new record for a winter transfer window in January 2023.

The increase in transfer fee investments has been general before the health crisis, while it has concentrated at Premier League level since the pandemic. During the 2022/23 season, the English top division clubs have accounted for a record percentage of transfer fees invested worldwide: 40.2% as opposed to an average of 25.4% between 2013/14 and 2019/20. More than ever, Premier League clubs are at the end of transfer chains and have increased their influence on the player market worldwide.

It is thus not surprising to notice that the prices of players recruited by English Premier League clubs have increased more than those of footballers signed by teams outside of this championship: +12.6% as opposed to 8.0% annually. Inflation was also particularly marked for centre backs (+12.5%), full backs (+11.1%), as well as for players aged 21 or under (+12.8%).

Generally speaking, all other things being equal, the prices of players have increased annually by 9.0% over the past decade. This average was 13.8% between the 2013/14 and 2019/20 seasons, then -0.2% during the three seasons following the pandemic. However, after having dropped sharply in 2021/22, the prices of footballers have returned to grow in 2022/23, suggesting a rapid return to record levels.

In ten years, the inflation in transfer fees has been 116% including add-ons and 90% without considering conditional payments. The gap is explained by the fact that sums invested by clubs on a conditional basis rose throughout the period. Add-ons paid according to players’ or recruiting teams’ performance account henceforth for more than 15% of total fees.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Vesper

[Reddish-Blue 2,325]

10 hours ago, Fulham Broadway said:

We have a history of getting strikers at the wrong end of their career. 

Pat Nevin, who was advocating getting the Drogs all those years ago reckons 'I would get Victor Osimhen from Napoli if it was up to me.'

There's no way we can compete with United as they'll have UCL football and a stable manager in charge...where as we'll have Moyes 2.0 in charge at Chelsea. 

[Mhsc 866]

2 minutes ago, Reddish-Blue said:

There's no way we can compete with United as they'll have UCL football and a stable manager in charge...where as we'll have Moyes 2.0 in charge at Chelsea. 

It is very obvious by now that this is not true, players have not hesitated even slightly and are buying into the project, attracting talent is NOT a problem for us.

[OhForAGreavsie 5,881]

1 hour ago, Mhsc said:

It is very obvious by now that this is not true, players have not hesitated even slightly and are buying into the project, attracting talent is NOT a problem for us.

Before we can claim this, the players we have attracted have to prove that they are of a level required to power regular challenges for titles domestically and internationally.

I don't know how many professional footballers there are around the world but let's guess at 100,000. It would be hard for anyone to question that Chelsea could 'attract' 99% of those players, but we all know that this isn't the right question. We know that the right question is can we recruit enough of the right players among the other 1%. The answer to that question is definitely not in yet.

[Reddish-Blue 2,325]

1 hour ago, Mhsc said:

It is very obvious by now that this is not true, players have not hesitated even slightly and are buying into the project, attracting talent is NOT a problem for us.

Attracting talent is not a problem when you're overspending on players and there is no competition from other clubs.

e.g. we signed Cucurella for an extra 20 million because City pulled out of the deal at 35 million.    We signed Koulibaly for 30+ million and that was because no other club wanted to offer him a 4 year deal.   Even Enzo's deal only happened because no other club wanted to meet Benfica's valuation of 120 million, they were more keen on waiting till end of the season before trying to negotiate a better transfer fee with Benfica. 

Won't be that simple with players like Victor as he'll have plenty of options to choose from.  

[lucio 5,418]

2 hours ago, Mhsc said:

It is very obvious by now that this is not true, players have not hesitated even slightly and are buying into the project, attracting talent is NOT a problem for us.

Youngsters from Ukrainian and Portuguese leagues though. And the attractiveness will only diminish if we don't improve soon. 

[NikkiCFC 7,907]

26 minutes ago, lucio said:

Youngsters from Ukrainian and Portuguese leagues though. And the attractiveness will only diminish if we don't improve soon. 

One could go to Arsenal and the other in pretty much any club he wants in the summer. 

[OhForAGreavsie 5,881]

3 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

One could go to Arsenal and the other in pretty much any club he wants in the summer. 

Mudryck certainly had the Arsenal option. Despite the fact that I, and many others I'm sure, still have hopes for him, more than a few are doubting how well we spent when buying him. According to many opinions therefore Mudryck is not evidence that we can attract the right level of player. Rather he is evidence that Arsenal can also attract the wrong* type.

 I believe that Enzo's buyout would still have been operative in the summer. I'm not aware that any clubs would have been clamouring to pay that figure in June.

*To be crystal clear, I still believe Mudryck can settle and make a contribution for us. What I say above just reflects how some Blues fans have begun to feel about the lad.

[OhForAGreavsie 5,881]

On 19/02/2023 at 00:55, Magic Lamps said:

Unpopular opinion but we should not sign Felix. He has already shown he is not worth 100m+. He is clearly a talented player and technically superior to most of our AMs but he also is exactly what we do not need. Another fancy second striker/pseudo no.10 with no real output, terrible finishing and squishy confidence. He embodies everything that is wrong with our attack. We need to get rid of all those fair weather players, nearly-scorers who like to play it easy on the eye and just don't bring it in front of goal cos the ball bounces unluckily last minute or there is a breeze or the fans are too loud. Even if we managed to dump Mount and Havertz, we would be replacing them with a player with the exact same shortcomings. There is also no need to sign a backup for Nkunku for 100m+. They will not fit into the same formation. Nkunku has to be flanked by pacey, direct wingers like Madueke and Mudryk, who hopefully are the future.  Felix is not.

I don't agree with every detail you say here but I certainly agree with your conclusion that Felix is easy on the eye, but not effective enough, often enough. This is exactly why I opposed his loan signing when it was being rumoured, and exactly, I believe, why Atleti want to sell.

Edited February 21, 2023 by OhForAGreavsie