Chelsea Transfers

[Fernando 6,477]

1 hour ago, Pizy said:

With Forest flying WAY above anything they could’ve dreamed of this season there’s no chance they’d sell Murillo midseason. And in the summer he’ll probably have an £85m price tag in his head. Think we missed our chance with him when we decided not to push for him last summer.

Yeah that sucks, but for the age and how the club is building 85 million is worth it. 

He is young and is already in the PL, so no PL acclimatization....although Caicedo took one season to get up to speed with us from his Brighton team. 

I would spend the 85 for him, he is worth it for me. Especially if we can sell Chillwell, Dissasi, Tosin and Badishille. That should cover some of the money we would spend on him. 

[Fernando 6,477]

13 minutes ago, MoroccanBlue said:

I'd go Tah and Araujo. 

Former I know will be very difficult given Barca and Flick. 

Tah is okay because of his contract expiring at the end of the season. So if Leverkusen want to sell this January before letting him go for free in the summer then we can get a deal. 

But I would still prefer to get Hincapie then Tah. He is 22, can play in many positions like left back, left midfield, and main position as center back. 

These types of players are money because they work good in the system that Enzo deploys. 

I would say 60 million would get you Hincapie. And Murillo yes going to be more expensive, but I will spend it. Just like we spend on Fofana at the beginning and that was dumb, Murillo is the best buy for the team we are building of younger players. 

[Pizy 18,401]

48 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Yeah that sucks, but for the age and how the club is building 85 million is worth it. 

He is young and is already in the PL, so no PL acclimatization....although Caicedo took one season to get up to speed with us from his Brighton team. 

I would spend the 85 for him, he is worth it for me. Especially if we can sell Chillwell, Dissasi, Tosin and Badishille. That should cover some of the money we would spend on him. 

Murillo is also a left footed, left sided CB isn’t he? Might not really make sense to target that profile anymore since Levi has that spot locked down. Playing a left footer on the right side may be awkward. Maybe not, idk.

I’d rather have someone 100% comfortable and who has always played on the right naturally.

[Vesper 28,967]

6 hours ago, Fernando said:

Just try to get murillo and maybe Hincapié and we are good to go in the defense. 

they are both left footed

that would leave us with 4 left footed CBs, 3 IF Badi is sold

[LAM09 6,768]

17 hours ago, Thor said:

I don’t think people realise the managerial issue of continuity and sometimes even if a player might be better you can’t just pop him into a team that’s performing well. 
 

By every metric Villa have been crushing it lately by getting into CL and now having a pretty decent follow up season all things considered. 
 

Take into account Watkins having a historically great striker season for their club. Like all time level great, even if he dips in form, you let a player like that work out of it given your recent successes. 
 

I don’t think Duran not starting is any reflection of him, but more so of keeping the team success at Villa going. 

I agree to some extent, but the fact that Emery has started to play Duran from the start indicates that things haven't been working so well, and like with many teams, if the CF isn't scoring, he'll most likely be the first to be dropped, if there is a good alternative. Outside of the CL, their performance has been inconsistent (November was particularly dismal).

It will be fascinating to watch where Emery goes on that front in the coming months.

[Vesper 28,967]

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/153191584/Chelsea

• Nicolas Jackson has more non-penalty goals than anyone else in the Premier League since the start of the 2023/24 season. He’s now on 23 goals, while Mohamed Salah is just behind on 22.

• Enzo Maresca on Chelsea injuries: “Benoit Badiashile had a problem yesterday during the session. For now, we do not know how long he will be out for. Romeo Lavia can be available for the next game.”

• Maresca on the title race: “For me, we are NOT ready. You can talk about the title and the fans can dream about the title… absolutely. If you ask me, I will tell you what I think. We’re not ready but we are happy the fans can dream.”

• Moises Caicedo: “N’Golo Kante is my idol. I try to help the team like he did… he’s a very big player, I try my best. We are enjoying it, we're doing fantastic. The sky’s the limit.”

[robsblubot 3,527]

7 hours ago, Vesper said:

Moises Caicedo: “N’Golo Kante is my idol. I try to help the team like he did… he’s a very big player, I try my best. We are enjoying it, we're doing fantastic. The sky’s the limit.”

There is no better role model.

[Vesper 28,967]

Who is the most progressive passer of them all?

Monday Night SCOUTED is the mirror on the wall.

https://www.scoutednotebook.com/p/most-progressive-passes-u23-wonderkids-adrian-bernabe-mns

Following Arsenal’s 3-0 win against Monaco on Wednesday night, debate and discussion raged within the fanbase about what Martin Ødegaard does and does not do. After the 0-0 draw with Everton, it returned. I will not bore you with the specifics, but I have been excited to explore a wider concept further.

As a result, this week’s Monday Night SCOUTED - the final one of 2024 - includes another case study style discussion rather than focussing on a collection of performances from the weekend. As always, let me know how you’re feeling about these.

Also, as this is the last MNS of the year, the SCOUTED Stats section is an As Things Stand™ review of every metric, including a few notes about players that made the cut this weekend.

Nobody knows what it means, but it’s provocative progressive…

Feel free to disagree, but I think ✨ Progressive ✨ is one of the most popular words in football discourse. People pine for progression and labelling someone as a progressive passer appears to be one of the highest compliments you can pay - while a supposed inability to progress the ball is often the main source of criticism for a player. The word paints a vivid, specific picture.

I believe that football fans, including myself, associate the word with moving the ball forward often and across large distances. I.e. a progressive passer is usually a player that breaks lines from deep with longer-range passes. In a similar fashion, I associate progression via ball-carrying with ground-gobbling runs up the pitch.

But how close is that picture to reality? Well, it does not line up exactly with FBref definitions:

• Progressive Passes - Completed passes that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area. Excludes passes from the defending 40% of the pitch

• Progressive Carries - Carries that move the ball towards the opponent's goal line at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any carry into the penalty area. Excludes carries which end in the defending 50% of the pitch

There are some key things to consider. The most important of all is that any completed pass / carry into the penalty area is classed as Progressive, no matter how far the ball has travelled.

This is not to say I don’t agree or that is an issue, but I would be interested to know how many people knew that was the case or at the very least expected it to be. As a result, I feel like the prolific use of this date has warped the perception of particular players and can lead to the misidentification of certain profiles.

To use Martin Ødegaard as an example. He is one of the best in the world at getting the ball into the penalty area, specifically via his passing. In 2023/24, he played 130 successful passes into the opposition box, at least 41 more than any other player in Europe’s Big Five Leagues. Since FBref started collecting this data in 2017/18, only Lionel Messi has managed more in a single campaign. That is incredible.

However, I do not think people would describe many players on this list as elite ‘Progressive Passers’ based on the universal understanding of that phrase - once again, I am more than happy to be told otherwise.

There is absolutely no doubt that getting the ball into the penalty area is one of the most valuable actions a player can take. But I feel like Penetrative would be a better adjective.

By including these passes within Progressive metrics, we may miss out on the discovery of players that area really good in and around the penalty area or players that are really good at finding them.

To further illustrate my point, here is an extreme example of how two passes would both be logged as a Progressive Pass despite serving an entirely different purpose.

1. Declan Rice passes the ball 30 yards, breaking the midfield line and into the feet of Martin Ødegaard, who receives the ball just outside of the penalty area

2. Ødegaard turns before passing into the box via a five-yard pass in between full-back and centre-back and into the path of Bukayo Saka

Both passes are extremely valuable. Both are difficult skills to execute. Both passes would be logged as a Progressive Pass. But I would argue that only Pass 1 would be described as progressive when analysing the game.

Let me be clear, I am not saying the metric is wrong. If anything is flawed, it is our understanding and application of it. I am also completely aware that clubs, data analysts and scouts will already have a way of distinguishing the difference. After all, Passes / Carries into the Penalty Area are recorded individually, you can start interrogating further by looking at them.

So consider this an introduction into how that might happen and how you can do the same if you only have access to FBref data - like us! How can we start to separate Progression - getting the ball towards players that get the ball into the penalty area - from Penetration - getting the ball into the penalty area - in order to refine your scouting even further?

…it gets the people going

Well, building on points discussed in the Tyler Dibling Dribbling newsletter and the Inverted Wing-back Watchlist, looking at the Progressive Yards per Pass / Carry can help us discover a new list of players.

Given the fact I have indexed heavily into dribbling and ball-carrying in recent newsletters, I am going to focus on passing from here on out. You can swap ‘Pass’ for ‘Carry’ at any point to apply the same logic.

Also, calculating the percentage of Progressive Passes that are Passes into the Penalty Area can help further separate the lock-picking playmakers and the line-breakers progressors.

364 players born in 2001 or later have played at least 450 minutes in Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. I have exported the following stats for each of them in order to calculate my custom metrics:

• Passes Completed (Cmp)

• Passes into the Final Third (Into3rd)

• Passes into the Penalty Area (PPA)

• Progressive Passes (PrgP)

• Progressive Passing Distance (PrgDist)

My manually calculated metrics are:

• Percentage of Passes Completed as Progressive Passes (PrgP/Cmp)

• Progressive Passes excluding Passes into the Penalty Area (PrgP-PPA)

• Percentage of Passes Completed as Progressive Passes excluding Passes into the Penalty Area (PrgP-PPA/Cmp)

• Percentage of Passes Completed as Passes into Final Third (Into3rd/Cmp)

• Percentage of Passes Completed as Passes into the Penalty Area (PPA/Cmp)

• Progressive Yards per Pass Completed (PrgDist/Cmp)

SCOUTED Stats spolier alert: Rayan Cherki is the 01+ leader for Progressive Passes per 90 across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. However, when we investigate the top 10 for this metric with our new calculations, a variety of playing styles become clear.

The first thing you might notice is that 44.6% of Cherki’s Progressive Passes are Passes into the Penalty Area. Aleksandar Pavlović, Adam Wharton and Angelo Stiller - three players I would argue are synonymous with the Progressive Passer paradigm - all average below 20% for this metric.

If we sort our top 10 by this new metric, Cherki, Michael Olise, Yaser Asprilla, Florian Wirtz and Lee Kang-in all appear as large outliers. It’s giving playmakers.

More spoliers: Olise is the 01+ leader for Passes into the Penalty Area based on total and per 90 metrics. This incredible output sees him rank in the 98th percentile for Progressive Passes within our group of 364 players. However, for PrgP-PPA, he drops to the 65th percentile. It’s still good, but it changes the discourse around his style: more penetrative, less progressive.

Another good case study is Pavlović. At face value, he looks like the most Progressive Passer. Within our top 10, he ranks first for Passes Completed, Passes into Final Third, Progressive Passing Distance and PrgP-PPA.

Based on this output combined with my perception of him as a player, I was expecting to see him rank much higher for Progressive Distance per Pass. Instead, he is closer to Olise than Wharton. This requires extra thought.

Pavlović is completing more passes per 90 than any other player in our database and at least 19 more than any player in this top 10 - that will obviously have an effect.

At the same time, although team style, player instructions and more would have to be considered, it is interesting to see that while his 12.2 Passes into the Final Third per 90 is at least 3 more than any other player in the database, Pedri averages the same % of Passes into the Final Third, while Adam Wharton has an even greater share. This presents another question: is it more useful to identify Progressive Passers based on this percentage share?

Personally, I think Wharton’s output is the best match for the shared consciousness of a Progressive Passer.

Remember, to even appear in this mini table, you need to rank in the top 13 for Progressive Passes per 90 - Wharton ranks third. The fact that he ranks first in this group for Progressive Distance per Pass and for Percentage of Passes as PrgP-PPA are two huge ticks.

Another reminder, all FBref metrics are based on successful passes - these are not hopeful pings into an area. These passes are finding teammates.

In our database of 364 outfield players born in 2001 or later with 450+ minutes across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, only two rank in the 85th percentile and above for Progressive Passes, Percentage of Passes as Progressive Passes and Progressive Yards per Pass:

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Adam Wharton (2004, Crystal Palace)

• 🇪🇸 Álex Baena (2001, Villarreal)

If we exclude Passes into the Penalty Area, Adam Wharton stands alone.

Welcome to the Wharton age

Phil Costa and Tom Curren

·

Jan 18

Read full story

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We already know about Adam Wharton… show us some other players!

Well, if we consider that Percentage of Passes as Progressive Passes could be influenced by style of play, removing that presents some interesting names. In our database, only five rank in the 85th percentile and above for PrgP-PPA and Progressive Yards per Pass:

• 🇧🇷 Lucas Beraldo (2003, Paris Saint-Germain)

• 🇪🇸 Pau Cubarsí (2007, Barcelona)

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Lewis Hall (2004, Chelsea)

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Adam Wharton (2004, Crystal Palace)

• 🇪🇸 Adrián Bernabé (2001, Parma)

Of course, Wharton is back. And although you may have expected to see Pau Cubarsí at some point, Lucas Beraldo continues to fly under the radar.

If we increase the threshold to 90th percentile and above, only Lewis Hall and Adrián Bernabé remain. Hall’s quest to become England’s first-choice left-back is gathering more momentum each week and I have discussed his claim in a previous newsletter.

Pape Matar Super Sarr, England's future full-backs and God-like distribution from a Greek

Jake Entwistle

·

Nov 5

Read full story

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Bernabé, however, is a name that I have yet to mention. The fact he spent four years at La Masia and another three in Manchester City’s academy suggests I should not be surprised.

But then you realise 2024/25 is the first top-flight season of his career having spent the last three in Serie B with Parma. A gold-medal winner with Spain in the summer, he is officially One To Watch. Of course, Llew Davies told you that two years ago.

All of this is to say that my advice when using and sharing data, no matter how simple or complex, is to read all of the definitions and to show an awareness of them.

The January transfer window is coming and there will be a lot of green-bar scouting as people scramble to learn more about a player their club has been linked with, or in search of copium to rationalise a record-breaking move.

All of that is absolutely fine, it’s part of the fun. Just make sure you know what the green bars really mean.

Edited yesterday at 04:26 by Vesper

[Fernando 6,477]

19 hours ago, Vesper said:

they are both left footed

that would leave us with 4 left footed CBs, 3 IF Badi is sold

Men did not thought about that. 

 I guess you are right, 4 is too much. Even 3, so is best to get one. 

I like Hincapie because he would cost less in theory but for me Murillo is number one. I want this guy as bad as when I wanted Caicedo and Enzo partnership. 

I remember before getting those guys I so wanted badly those two guys, and I did not expected us to spend that much big money but in the long run is worth it. 

I feel the same for Murillo.