Chelsea Transfers

[ZAPHOD2319 4,416]

Lyon and Ajax are really digging a hole to try to climb up their respective tables. If this continues, there will be some players getting out of both teams. Perhaps our recruitment team were right about Cherki, he has been nowhere this season.

[Vesper 28,390]

oh ffs

EXCL: Chelsea interested in Aaron Ramsdale, Conor Gallagher WOULD sign new Chelsea deal, Osimhen on 2024 radar, Toney more realistic for Jan, Kendry Paez could spent time with seniors, and more..

https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/excl-Chelsea-interested-in-aaron

Chelsea can take plenty of positives from their 2-2 draw with Arsenal. It’s always disappointing to lose a two-goal lead with less than 15 minutes left, but it was still one of Chelsea’s best performances of the season.

Cole Palmer again proved his worth and Marc Cucurella continues to impress. When I spoke to Cucurella over the summer he made it clear he was intent on fighting for his place at Chelsea and he’s doing precisely that. There is no guarantee he’ll be sold or loaned in January. Mauricio Pochettino is impressed by not only his form but his attitude.

Mykhailo Mudryk is starting to settle and got a morale-boosting first Stamford Bridge goal. The Ukrainian also scored a sensational goal whilst on international duty. He might not have entirely meant it – it was clearly a cross-shot – but he did point out after the game he was told David Raya often moved too early to anticipate play and could be exposed.

The biggest negative was obviously Robert Sanchez’s error leading to Declan Rice’s goal. That let Arsenal back into the game and was very sloppy. Sanchez has made some tremendous stops this season but still looks a little shaky with his feet. Pochettino demands ball-playing keepers and Sanchez is going to have to get used to passing under pressure. In this instance, he was just careless and Rice punished him with a superb finish (it wasn't a given to score). 

These things happen and sadly it cost Chelsea what would have been their first three points against a big-six side under these owners. But Sanchez is still seen as Chelsea’s No.1 for the season.

A lot of fans ask me whether the club might try for Aaron Ramsdale in January and it's true there will be plenty of clubs keeping an eye on his situation, Chelsea included. Ramsdale wants to play to try and push Jordan Pickford for England’s Euro 2024 starting spot in goal. And he can’t do that from the bench. But as of now Chelsea haven’t made any kind of serious move. Plus, Mikel Arteta really wants to keep Ramsdale, so a mid-season switch is going to be tough. It could only happen if Ramsdale really pushes.

Overall, I think the point against Arsenal was a good one. It shows this young Chelsea side can go toe-to-toe with a title contender, and it adds to momentum ahead of a difficult run of fixtures.

I think Chelsea stand as good a chance as Newcastle, Aston Villa or even Tottenham as qualifying for the Champions League, especially if there are five spots. And I believe they will prove a better side playing against sterner opposition. As Arsenal showed, they just seem to rise to the occasion. I expect them to go on now and beat Brentford next.

Last season Chelsea lacked leadership but we are starting to see that change. Conor Gallagher is one example. He seems to have relished having the armband in the absence of Reece James and Ben Chilwell.

Newcastle, West Ham, Spurs and Brighton have all looked at Gallagher in the past. I understand Brighton probably would have moved if they could have afforded his wages but it just wasn't a financially feasible move and still isn't. Spurs, meanwhile, decided not to make a bid on Deadline Day this summer because they felt Gallagher’s asking price was too high.

Gallagher has always been intent to stay and fight for his place. He is in no hurry to leave. It's true that Chelsea’s senior leadership have previously been reluctant to offer him a new deal, but that may change with Pochettino’s influence over the coming months. It’s still unclear, with everyone fit, whether Gallagher is surplus to requirements, which sounds a strange thing to say given he’s been captain and a mainstay under Pochettino. But I would term his future as 'open'. If Chelsea do offer him a new deal, though, I am told he’ll sign it, again indicating Gallagher's preference is to stay.

And just a word on Chelsea’s potential search for a striker in January. Victor Osimhen is on Chelsea’s radar for 2024. I still think a summer move is going to be easier than a January one. Osimhen hasn’t signed a new two-year deal despite one being tabled over the summer. Napoli felt at one point there was something close to a verbal agreement in place, but the Nigerian striker had second thoughts. It won’t be easy to persuade Aurelio De Laurentiis to sell mid-season, especially if Napoli can get out of their Champions League group.

Ivan Toney is perhaps a more realistic target if Chelsea want to move in January. Brentford would be asking for around £60m in summer, but a January sale will require more. Some say £65m as a starting point, but other sources stress it might be closer to £80m. 

All this means if Chelsea want either of those strikers they will have to spend big and perhaps find a way to cash in. That’s why outgoings remain important in 2024 despite the summer clearout.

Lastly, I would encourage anyone to watch Kendry Paez's latest wonder-goal for Independiente del Valle. The 16-year-old is already showing why Chelsea invested €20m in him (bonuses included).

Paez can't officially join Chelsea until he's 18 and sources indicate he's trying to blot out the move for now. But the club are in regular contact and there are plans to integrate him into the squad before he arrives. It wouldn't surprise me if he spends some time with the senior squad next summer. Paez looks like a tremendous prospect who is already really mature. If his development continues at this pace he will become a frighteningly good talent.

[Vesper 28,390]

1 minute ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

Lyon and Ajax are really digging a hole to try to climb up their respective tables. If this continues, there will be some players getting out of both teams. Perhaps our recruitment team were right about Cherki, he has been nowhere this season.

Olympique Lyon

18	Rayan Cherki Attacking Midfield	Aug 17, 2003 (20)		€30.00m
6	Maxence Caqueret Central Midfield	Feb 15, 2000 (23)		€22.00m
37	Ernest Nuamah Left Winger	Nov 1, 2003 (19)		€20.00m
10		)
20	Saël Kumbedi Right-Back	Mar 26, 2005 (18)		€12.00m

 

Ajax Amsterdam

37	Josip Sutalo Centre-Back	Feb 28, 2000 (23)		€18.00m
25	Borna Sosa Left-Back	Jan 21, 1998 (25)		€12.00m
8	Kenneth Taylor Central Midfield	May 16, 2002 (21)		€10.00m
11	Carlos Forbs Left Winger	Mar 19, 2004 (19)		€10.00m
4	Jorrel Hato Centre-Back	Mar 7, 2006 (17)		€10.00m
2	Devyne Rensch Right-Back	Jan 18, 2003 (20)		€8.00m
24	Silvano Vos Defensive Midfield	Mar 16, 2005 (18)		€3.00m

[Vesper 28,390]

Ivan Toney likely to cost £60-65m

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/138225644/ivan-toney-likely-to-cost-m

There’s been a lot of interest in Ivan Toney, including from Italy, but the idea of the player is to move to a top English club. There is interest from Arsenal, for sure, he is appreciated by people at the club, but we’ll have to see if Arsenal want to spend important money on a striker, especially after their big spending in the summer.

Chelsea are also interested - they are following both Toney and Victor Osimhen. They will go for a striker in 2024, let’s see if it’s January or the summer. Tottenham are very happy with their squad, but could also be one to watch with Toney if they decide to go for a striker.

The feeling of sources is that Toney’s asking price could be around £60-65m - Brentford would ideally want more than this, but the feeling at the moment is that for that kind of price the deal could be done.

[Vesper 28,390]

Chelsea’s winger targets before they signed Cole Palmer

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/138225644/chelseas-winger-targets-before-they-signed-cole-palmer

I can now mention something behind the scenes from the summer, when many wingers were being linked with Chelsea. Their priority target was Cole Palmer, but also in their list was Nico Williams of Athletic Bilbao. Chelsea scouted him for a long time before deciding to go for Palmer as their priority, but what now for Williams?

We’ve had many rumours about Barcelona and other clubs, and his contract is due to expire in 2024 so it’s a kind of dangerous situation for Athletic Bilbao, but I’m told there is the feeling that he will extend his contract. Athletic are confident, it’s still being discussed, but it looks concrete, and it could include a release clause of around €50m.

There were also rumours in the summer about Chelsea and Rayan Cherki, but my information is that it was never close or concrete. He was scouted, as were many other players, but the reality, despite rumours in the media, was that Chelsea never advanced in any negotiation. Many other clubs are also following him in different countries, but at the moment there’s nothing concrete, no negotiation or anything else.

Still, it’s important to note that Lyon are having a terrible season in Ligue 1, so Cherki’s situation could be different. For Cherki it’s a complicated moment, as he was substituted at half time in the defeat to Clermont - this is something surprising, and so his situation will have to be clarified for 2024.

Anyway, I also think it’s important to give credit to Chelsea for the signing of Cole Palmer, because he’s been fantastic. West Ham and Brighton also wanted Palmer this summer, but Chelsea were ready to pay a big amount of money to Man City to make it happen, and it made the difference. For me, Palmer was also absolutely ready to play at Manchester City’s level too, but City have so many top players and so it’s understandable that they decided to sell when the right offer came in.

In other news…

Victor Osimhen - Despite rumours, I can 100% guarantee that Victor Osimhen has not agreed anything with Liverpool or any club. He’s not negotiating any contract or salary with any other club, even if there is interest from around Europe, which is normal. Still, it’s also true that Osimhen has not agreed anything with Napoli, despite receiving a contract proposal which was the biggest in Napoli’s history. The negotiations are not advancing or progressing, so it’s dangerous for Napoli as he’s out of contract in 2025. If nothing is agreed in the next months then he could be one to watch in the summer.

[NikkiCFC 7,903]

31 minutes ago, Vesper said:

Ivan Toney likely to cost £60-65m

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/138225644/ivan-toney-likely-to-cost-m

There’s been a lot of interest in Ivan Toney, including from Italy, but the idea of the player is to move to a top English club. There is interest from Arsenal, for sure, he is appreciated by people at the club, but we’ll have to see if Arsenal want to spend important money on a striker, especially after their big spending in the summer.

Chelsea are also interested - they are following both Toney and Victor Osimhen. They will go for a striker in 2024, let’s see if it’s January or the summer. Tottenham are very happy with their squad, but could also be one to watch with Toney if they decide to go for a striker.

The feeling of sources is that Toney’s asking price could be around £60-65m - Brentford would ideally want more than this, but the feeling at the moment is that for that kind of price the deal could be done.

This guy is 4x more cheaper. But with both over 25 years old are they even our targets?

[Pizy 18,342]

I see all the Ramsdale rumors. Firstly, it would be madness to go out and sign another pricey keeper after paying £25m for Sanchez and also signing a backup we haven’t even seen once yet. And secondly, does it not say something that just 1 year after signing Ramsdale Arteta almost couldn’t wait to replace him because he’s weak with his distribution?

Remember Kepa is still also technically still a Chelsea player and we also spent decent money on Slonina. 

I don’t think another new keeper is on the cards any time soon. We’ll just have to keep the faith in Sanchez and hope he settles down.

[bluesman2610 1,338]

9 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

This guy is 4x more cheaper. But with both over 25 years old are they even our targets?

I thought I saw somewhere he’s currently injured but I also think he could do the business in the PL

[Magic Lamps 11,636]

7 hours ago, bluesman2610 said:

I thought I saw somewhere he’s currently injured but I also think he could do the business in the PL

It’s really funny how Guirassy‘s reputation has recovered. During his time at Köln he was known as the worst finisher in Germany. The amount and quality of chances he wasted was legendary and puts Werner, Havertz, Jackson and Lukaku to shame. Ok maybe not Lukaku but still. On the one hand it shows how short ppls memories are but also two things are possible… a mediocre striker can always hit a purple patch down the line or a serial choker can become a clinical striker.

Personally, I would not touch him. We have been linked with so many flavour of the month strikers once they hit a good spell who just fell off a cliff weeks later (Belotti, jovic, piatek, lacine traore, diakite etc.) 

 

IMO there are only two types of centre forward you can trust to be starters for a top club. Either those that are the epitome of clinical finishers, who were literally born with unshakable confidence, unerring positioning,  the ability to score goals from half chances, Mishits , deflections, gk errors or undetected fouls. This type of striker has become increasingly rare as fewer teams are willing to sacrifice a runner for a fox in the box. Then there a strikers who are so polished in their overall game and offer such valuable link up play, create chances for teammates, make space for attacks and drag defenders out of postirion that they can go months without scoring but are still valuable to the play. 
Guirassy and also probably Toney fall in neither category so we should probably stay clear if they demand a starting spot. Toney is also too expensive to ride the bench. 
 

i honestly believe if we get Nkunku back to full fitness and Poch manages to tweak his system to accommodate both, NJ and Nkunku, we could have on of the best strikeforces in the country. 

 

[lucio 5,418]

28 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

It’s really funny how Guirassy‘s reputation has recovered. During his time at Köln he was known as the worst finisher in Germany. The amount and quality of chances he wasted was legendary and puts Werner, Havertz, Jackson and Lukaku to shame. Ok maybe not Lukaku but still. On the one hand it shows how short ppls memories are but also two things are possible… a mediocre striker can always hit a purple patch down the line or a serial choker can become a clinical striker.

Personally, I would not touch him. We have been linked with so many flavour of the month strikers once they hit a good spell who just fell off a cliff weeks later (Belotti, jovic, piatek, lacine traore, diakite etc.) 

 

IMO there are only two types of centre forward you can trust to be starters for a top club. Either those that are the epitome of clinical finishers, who were literally born with unshakable confidence, unerring positioning,  the ability to score goals from half chances, Mishits , deflections, gk errors or undetected fouls. This type of striker has become increasingly rare as fewer teams are willing to sacrifice a runner for a fox in the box. Then there a strikers who are so polished in their overall game and offer such valuable link up play, create chances for teammates, make space for attacks and drag defenders out of postirion that they can go months without scoring but are still valuable to the play. 
Guirassy and also probably Toney fall in neither category so we should probably stay clear if they demand a starting spot. Toney is also too expensive to ride the bench. 
 

i honestly believe if we get Nkunku back to full fitness and Poch manages to tweak his system to accommodate both, NJ and Nkunku, we could have on of the best strikeforces in the country. 

 

he's worth a punt at that price surely. Chump change for todays market

[Reddish-Blue 2,325]

51 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

 

 

IMO there are only two types of centre forward you can trust to be starters for a top club. Either those that are the epitome of clinical finishers, who were literally born with unshakable confidence, unerring positioning,  the ability to score goals from half chances, Mishits , deflections, gk errors or undetected fouls. This type of striker has become increasingly rare as fewer teams are willing to sacrifice a runner for a fox in the box. Then there a strikers who are so polished in their overall game and offer such valuable link up play, create chances for teammates, make space for attacks and drag defenders out of postirion that they can go months without scoring but are still valuable to the play. 
Guirassy and also probably Toney fall in neither category so we should probably stay clear if they demand a starting spot. Toney is also too expensive to ride the bench. 
 

i honestly believe if we get Nkunku back to full fitness and Poch manages to tweak his system to accommodate both, NJ and Nkunku, we could have on of the best strikeforces in the country. 

 

Agree with this but Jackson needs at least 2+ seasons of development to be the main man in attack.   I get the experiment and Jackson has the raw skills you want to see in a young striker but to expect him & Broja to lead the line and potentially score 15+ goals between them was always going to be a step too far. 

[Magic Lamps 11,636]

54 minutes ago, lucio said:

he's worth a punt at that price surely. Chump change for todays market

17.5 indeed would be worth a punt but we don’t need any more overrated flavour of the month littering the squad. Also he is probably too old to fit into boehly ball 

26 minutes ago, Reddish-Blue said:

Agree with this but Jackson needs at least 2+ seasons of development to be the main man in attack.   I get the experiment and Jackson has the raw skills you want to see in a young striker but to expect him & Broja to lead the line and potentially score 15+ goals between them was always going to be a step too far. 

If Jackson stays fit I can see him scoring 10-15 goals in all comps. Sure he needs more time to become a reliable goal scorer but nkunku back could alleviate some of the pressure . 

broja really does not look too promising. He is all pace and power and 0 brain or awareness. I like his attitude but his finishing is meh. 

[Vesper 28,390]

Nic Jackson learning trade but Chelsea need proven ST, Enzo mentally tired? Impossible task of picking best fully fit Chelsea Xl, Luke Rushbrook article, News roundups, and more...

https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/nic-jackson-learning-trade-but-Chelsea

Morning everyone!

Happy hump day! We’ve made it to Wednesday and that means we are almost at another Chelsea fixture! It feels so great to be excited for our games week after week right now, doesn’t it?

More on the upcoming game against Brentford as the week goes on, including team and injury news that I’ll be checking in on. But before that, let’s go back to the Arsenal game for another little analysis before moving on. We have honed in on the individual errors that led to Arsenal getting back in the game, but there was also a moment that should have seen us bury the game even more and go on to win 3-0. I speak on that and the fact Chelsea still need a proven goalscorer in here.

I have seen some odd criticisms of Enzo Fernandez of all people this week. Well, I’ve not read or listened to it myself, but I have been alerted to it by one of our community members on here. Anyway, I’m not trying to tell people what to think or how to support Chelsea, but for me any criticism of Enzo is hugely daft right now, and I explain why and that maybe he might just be mentally tired in here.

This week as well I set myself the impossible task of picking the best Chelsea Xl when everyone is fit. This took me a lot longer than I expected it to. I changed my mind a whole lot and I’m still not even fully convinced or happy with my choice now. Even still, I made my choices and explain it all in here.

Luke Rushbrook has his latest and ever popular weekly Loan Army Roundup for us all here. Looking at how the likes of Gaga Slonina, Bashir Humphreys, Angelo Gabriel, David Datro Fofana, Cesare Casadei and more are getting on.

And of course, all your latest Chelsea news roundups in one place can be found here. Transfer rumours, quotes, injury news, and much more in this.

We are recording the latest Podcast episode today this week, which is a day earlier than usual. Jai is off on a work trip and he will be traveling on Thursday, so we have had to bring it forward to today. So that will be out around 6.30pm tonight!

See you all on the live blog from around 8am today!

Peace, Si.

[Vesper 28,390]

What next for Thiago Silva at Chelsea?

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/138268241/what-next-for-thiago-silva-at-Chelsea

We know Chelsea have had a busy few transfer windows under Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali, and we’re continuing to see speculation about further changes to this squad in the months to come.

One player with an uncertain future is Thiago Silva - we know he’s heading towards the end of his contract, currently making him a free agent in summer 2024, and there are some reports that he could move back to Brazil with Fluminense at the end of this season.

Still, my understanding is that Silva has not decided anything at this stage and no decision will be made now. It will be up to the player, and he will decide in 2024. In my opinion Thiago is still a fantastic defender but for him and Chelsea to continue together they need to be 100% convinced on both player and club side.

If Silva were to leave Chelsea, could they sign a replacement? There’s nothing concrete on that for now as Silva’s future hasn’t been decided anyway, so I’d say recent rumours linking the Blues with Alessandro Bastoni are quite premature. I’m not aware of any contact with the Inter defender, though of course it’s easy to mention “interest” for one of the most talented left footed centre-backs in Europe. Bastoni recently signed new deal at Inter, and as far as I’m aware there’s nothing else happening at this stage.

[Vesper 28,390]

Chelsea looking at new centre backs and left backs

The club are doing some due diligence - new left back name revealed in this

https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/sources-Chelsea-looking-at-new-centre

As like most clubs, Chelsea are doing due diligence and planning for two to three of the next approaching transfer windows in advance, and they are honing in on two positions in particular.

The priority remains a new striker in January, but the club’s planners and decision makers are also starting to look at potential new centre backs and left backs.

The centre back situation is clear. There are some concerns over Wesley Fofana’s injury issues and at the moment we would be surprised to see him back this season. Then there is the situation of Thiago Silva, who I am still hearing is likely to be moving on when his contract runs out at the end of this season, bar any late surprises.

Trevoh Chalobah is set to be sold in January as well, so the club are looking at potentially signing a new centre back in the summer.

I have yet to hear of any names and I’ve not heard about any interest in Alessandro Bastoni yet.

But what I have been told is that if Silva does go, they will look to replace him with a centre back with experience. That doesn’t mean an older player necessarily, but it does mean one who has either Premier League or European experience and comes with a bit of leadership and influence. So basically replacing Silva like-for-like, which I believe would be very wise.

Bashir Humphreys is also being closely monitored on his current loan spell and many at the club rate him highly.

What about left backs?

Chelsea are also doing their due diligence on potential new left backs.

Even though Marc Cucurella is liked by Mauricio Pochettino and is enjoying a bit of a resurgence and some good form, his future is still marked as ‘unclear’ by sources I have been speaking to. So that could develop.

I am also told it is likely now that Ian Maatsen will leave the club, potentially in January. Chelsea have so far been unable to agree a new long-term contract with Maatsen, and as a result they used the option to extend his contract by a further year in order to buy themselves time, and also hold a decent valuation over his head - which right now is looking to be the more likely scenario.

Maatsen has a lot of interest coming in and I believe Chelsea will end up listening to offers for him in January despite ideally wanting him to stay at the club (hence the contract offers made).

I don’t think either side really here is at fault - Maatsen is rightly looking at all options and wants to make sure he plays regular football, which he is unlikely to get at Chelsea as of right now. And Chelsea rate him and want to keep him but obviously cannot guarantee regular starts.

There are also some slight doubts creeping in from sources on Ben Chilwell’s future. Nothing to report really and as of now, nobody at Chelsea wants Chilwell to leave, and he himself is not looking to leave as of right now. But it is a potential situation that sources have said to keep an eye on in the future. So another one that could develop. His regular injuries are also a bit of a concern. Either way, Chelsea want two top left backs to compete just as they have on the right side with Malo Gusto and Reece James.

As of a result of all the above, Chelsea are looking at left backs. Nothing advanced, and nothing more than just usual club due diligence as of now, but there are a few names being looked at and considered in the view to potentially bringing one in for January or the summer.

One name I have been given is Valentin Barco from Boca Juniors. I have been told he is one left back who has been added to the shortlist for a potential move.

Barco is a 19-year-old Argentinian youth international and he is also being tracked by a number of other top clubs including Manchester City right now.

On the mystery player

I can reveal that the mystery player that Chelsea really like and are keen on signing would be for one of the above positions. He is a ‘big name’ and would certainly get Chelsea fans excited. But, nothing advanced there yet either and I am still hoping to report the name soon once my source allows it.

That’s it for now, updates will be out on the site as and when of course.

Simon Phillips

[Vesper 28,390]

Is Ivan Toney the solution to Chelsea’s No 9 problem?

https://theathletic.com/5000886/2023/10/27/ivan-toney-Chelsea-striker/

Mauricio Pochettino will probably regard it as a small mercy that, as Brentford attempt to earn their third consecutive victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, they will have to do it without talismanic striker Ivan Toney.

The 27-year-old, who is banned from football until January 17 after admitting in May to 232 breaches of the Football Association’s betting rules, did not score in either of Brentford’s two previous wins at Chelsea. He made his mark on both occasions, though: slipping a brilliant pass through to Vitaly Janelt to dink in the third goal in a 4-1 triumph in April last year and laying the ball off to Shandon Baptiste to spring Bryan Mbeumo away to ultimately give the visitors a 2-0 lead they would not relinquish a year later.

Brentford have adapted impressively well to Toney’s lengthy absence; the fact they are 14th in the Premier League does not reflect negatively on their attack, the team having scored 14 times in the season’s opening nine league matches — one more than Chelsea — with Mbeumo in particular shouldering a greater share of the goals burden. But it would be disingenuous to claim they have not missed Toney, scorer of 20 goals in 33 Premier League appearances last season and the muscular, intelligent focal point around whom Mbeumo and others have thrived.

Head coach Thomas Frank devised a 16-week plan in September to build up his top striker’s fitness, and the plan is to throw Toney back into competitive action as soon as he is eligible. He is allowed to play in behind-closed-doors matches until then and, after scoring against Como of Italy’s second division at the beginning of this month, he completed 65 minutes on Wednesday for Brentford’s B team against French side Monaco’s under-21s.

The big question is whether Brentford will be the club to benefit from this preparation work.

Toney will enter the final 18 months of his current contract at the turn of the year and has been laying the groundwork for a big-money transfer since last summer, when he enlisted powerful international football agency CAA Stellar as his new representation.

Arsenal have been linked with signing him, Tottenham could also be in the market for a new striker in the wake of Harry Kane’s summer departure to Bayern Munich, and Chelsea are the Premier League heavyweights giving most thought to signing a No 9 in the winter market, when a deal for Napoli’s Victor Osimhen might also be attainable.

But how good is Toney, and what could he offer Chelsea? The Athletic takes a closer look…

---

In terms of his physical presence and style of play, the loftier Chelsea comparisons that Toney has attracted are Didier Drogba and Diego Costa. But the list of players similar to his statistical profile on respected data website FBref.com throws up another distinguished name — and probably a more accurate match — from more recent Stamford Bridge history: Olivier Giroud.

Toney, as with Giroud, is a late bloomer at the top level of football. Both have been credited by former team-mates and coaches with having the mentality of elite professionals even when they were labouring in relative obscurity, and have been widely praised for being positive dressing room influences.

GO DEEPER

Olivier Giroud: match-winning goalkeeper

Another parallel with Giroud is the fact that Toney is more than a traditional target man, though his aerial ability is a core part of his appeal; with just under 3.6 aerial duels won per 90 minutes, he ranks in the 80th percentile for forwards in Europe’s top five leagues, the Champions League and Europa League over the past year.

Gareth Southgate handed Toney his England debut against Ukraine in March after describing his performance in a 1-1 draw against Arsenal the month before, when he dominated William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes in the air, as “outstanding”.

During his three seasons at Brentford, he has had an amplifying effect on the attacking production of those around him, using an array of incisive passes, layoffs, knockdowns and flick-ons to put team-mates in positions to threaten the opponents.

As the graphic below illustrates, these occur in deeper positions in the final third as well as inside the penalty area.

It is not difficult to imagine Toney’s smart hold-up and link-up play giving the likes of Raheem Sterling, Mykhailo Mudryk, Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke more good opportunities to stress defences, in much the same way that Giroud did with Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro Rodriguez.

Toney’s particularly slick chemistry with a more nimble, skilful forward in Mbeumo, whenever Brentford switched to a strike partnership in attack, might also bode well for potential combinations with Christopher Nkunku — though it is also worth noting that he and the summer signing from RB Leipzig both like to drift into the left half-space in order to get on the ball.

Six of the 20 Premier League goals Toney scored last season were penalties. He is excellent at taking them, converting 29 of 31 attempts in his professional career and frequently sending goalkeepers the wrong way by employing a short, deliberate run-up that gives few clear hints as to his true intentions.

Toney is yet to record a truly prolific top-flight campaign by modern standards, and his 0.4 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes in the 2022-23 Premier League fell a long way short of the 0.66 registered by Osimhen in the same season as he fired Napoli to their first Serie A title since 1990.

These individual numbers, however, should not be separated from their team context.

Brentford have created chances at a good rather than great frequency in their two completed seasons in the Premier League. In 2021-22, their first year after winning promotion via the play-offs, their 1.08 npxG per 90 minutes ranked 11th in the division, and that figure improved to 1.33 12 months later, which was eighth-best.

The most encouraging thing for Toney is that he has done a relatively impressive job of turning the chances that come his way into goals. His shot conversion of 21 per cent over the past two seasons is very respectable and actually compares favourably to more heralded attackers such as Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus and Marcus Rashford of Manchester United.

He has also made a year-on-year improvement in where he takes his shots from.

As the graphic below illustrates, the bulk of his goal attempts in 2021-22 were spread across the penalty area…

… whereas last season he did a better job of hoovering up chances in and around the six-yard box, which predictably led to a big increase in his expected goals (xG) per shot attempt:

Brentford did a better job of generating shot attempts in these high-value areas than Chelsea did in 2022-23, aided significantly by their set-piece prowess. Thirty-nine per cent of their total efforts at goal came either in the opposition’s six-yard box or just outside it.

That metric was just 32 per cent for Chelsea last season, whose overall shot conversion in the six-yard box was a startling 15 per cent — well below the Premier League average, which stood at 28 per cent:

Summer appointment Pochettino’s team have only been taking 31 per cent of their shots either in the six-yard box or just outside it in the opening nine games, though there have been marginal improvements in the average quality and distance from goal of their attempts.

The key question is: would Toney give Chelsea more of a goal threat in and around the six-yard box, or would his scoring production be negatively impacted by playing in a different system?

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Toney would be an unusual Chelsea transfer target in several ways.

He turns 28 in March, so does not fit the age profile of a recruitment strategy that has overwhelmingly focused on players 23 or younger. Nor does he project as having huge untapped potential.

However, his steady improvement since failing to break through at Newcastle as a teenager following a move from Northampton Town of the fourth division should give any buying club confidence that he will continue to find ways to grow his game. He won the League One Player of the Season award in 2019-20 with Peterborough United before breaking the Championship goalscoring record at Brentford the following campaign, underlying his ability to step up.

There are other uncertain variables from Chelsea’s perspective.

Toney has never played in a team of such stature and expectations, even if standards dropped to historic lows last season at Stamford Bridge. It is unclear how well he would adapt to being part of a high-possession team regularly confronted by low opposition blocks.

His aerial presence would certainly provide a dimension not currently offered by Nicolas Jackson or Armando Broja, but his attacking threat at Brentford has not been reliant on that; only 19 per cent of his goal attempts since the start of 2021-22 have been headers.

Frank considers Toney a key part of his leadership group, responsible for ensuring high standards are set and then maintained on and off the pitch. Would that force of personality scale up to the Chelsea dressing room?

Whatever the answer, the harsh reality is that any club considering a large transfer outlay on Toney will also need to be completely convinced that the football betting which got him this suspension is no longer a risk.

January and its transfer window will bring conflicting incentives.

Brentford need to cash in on Toney sooner rather than later. They will be conscious they allowed David Raya to enter the final 12 months of his contract and were unable to extract maximum value from his loan move to Arsenal, which is expected to be made permanent for £30million in total next summer. Brentford will also lose fellow forwards Mbeumo (Cameroon) and Yoane Wissa (DR Congo) to the Africa Cup of Nations that month.

Chelsea will have Jackson (Senegal) away at the same tournament, and need to decide whether Broja and Nkunku, who is on his way back from a pre-season injury, constitute enough firepower to see them through that period.

Even if they do pursue a No 9 in the winter window, Osimhen might be the better choice — although he stands to have Africa Cup of Nations duty then too, with Nigeria.

What transfer business is financially possible must be weighed against what is logistically feasible in the middle of a season, and the potential cost of opportunity as well as price. A deal for Toney might still be there next summer, and in the meantime, Pochettino cannot possibly know exactly what he has yet in Jackson, Broja and Nkunku — two summer arrivals and a player newly returned from a major knee injury suffered last December.

Toney has established himself as a serious Premier League striker and there is a world in which he could be as impactful as the best version of Giroud at his next club.

Whether or not that next club should be Chelsea is much harder to say.

GO DEEPER

Ivan Toney's betting ban shames the whole of football, not just him

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Three HUGE sourced stories - Exclusive on Conor Gallagher's future, Sources on new CBs/LBs, Sources on Nkunku's injury recovery - when he will be back, Plus Luke looks at midfield, and more...

https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/three-huge-sourced-stories-exclusive

Morning all!

Wow, today is a jam-packed Chelsea newsletter full of inside information and sourced stories, as well as a big exclusive story on Conor Gallagher.

It looks like we are recording the latest Podcast today rather than yesterday after all. Jai is traveling for work this week so it’s been hard to pin him down. He got to his Hotel yesterday and we were going to record then, but the WiFi wasn’t working! So we will be attempting to record today - I’ll keep you all updated on the live blog today.

BIG newsletter this, let’s get into it!

Let’s begin with the Conor Gallagher exclusive I had out - there is a new Premier League team interested in signing Gallagher this January, but will Chelsea sell him or has their stance changed on it? Find out in here.

Christopher Nkunku’s road to recovery continues, but he is getting there and we have a story here on when sources expect him back playing for Chelsea again, and what the latest is in his rehabilitation. He’s not been in England the whole time 👀

And a big sourced one now on Chelsea looking at new centre backs and new left backs for the upcoming transfer windows. Priority remains a new striker, but Chelsea’s pre-planning goes further and much more advanced than just that. I have a new left back name being targeted in this one here, as well as all the latest info on new centre backs and current situations such as Thiago Silva, Ian Maatsen, and Marc Cucurella!

And after all that excitement and big sourced news, we had our resident scout Luke Rushbrook with his daily article to keep the content varied! Luke has looked at something we have discussed a lot on here lately, the midfield balance and where Romeo Lavia fits in. That and more in here.

As well as all of that, I of course had the live blog running yesterday as usual, and this contains all your latest Chelsea news, quotes, transfer rumours and anything else in the same place here.

Will Reyner’s popular weekly column for us is in the drafts, but I had so much sourced content to put out for this one so Will’s excellent latest article will be out later today instead!

Same goes for the polls article! Looking to get that out later today!

Hope you all have a good day, see you all on the live blog from 8am!

Peace, Si.

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Chelsea

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/138276295/Chelsea

• Ghanaian top talent Fatawu Ganiwu will be traveling to train with European clubs very soon. He looks set to attend RC Lens first in November, but Chelsea are also among the names monitoring him.

• Could Chelsea be set to sign a new striker and new centre-back this January?

• A big name from Barcelona has been linked with the Blues - full info here.

• Good news for Chelsea as Liverpool are NOT in the race for Victor Osimhen - more info here.