The European Leagues & Competitions Thread V2

[NikkiCFC 8,062]

Guess who destroyed Porto just a year ago? 1 goal and 2 assists in this game and also one goal in first leg.

 

[DDA 9,689]

Get the fuck in.

We could actually do this.

[Vesper 29,076]

We have a puncher's chance to at least get to the final, and in a one off game (think 2012) anything can happen.

GREAT DRAW

[Vesper 29,076]

5 hours ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

Ajax can beat Man Utd

so can Granada and Roma

[Milan 17,862]

I see Rangers are trying the play the racist card again. 3 months ago they accused a player of racism and nothing was proved. Now they are accusing another player, after seeing 2 red cards and being already eliminated. And Stevie G then watches his player assault the opponent in the tunnel and says nothing. After another of this players kung fu tackles the opponent goalie, breaking bones in his face.

👏

[Milan 17,862]

One of the Slavia players should have told Stevie Gerrard that he gave it to Demba Ba.

[Milan 17,862]

Now Slavia are pressing charges against Rangers and the physical assault.

[bigbluewillie 1,866]

Can't find it what is the full ECL draw?

And the Ropey cup?

[Atomiswave 6,072]

39 minutes ago, Milan said:

I see Rangers are trying the play the racist card again. 3 months ago they accused a player of racism and nothing was proved. Now they are accusing another player, after seeing 2 red cards and being already eliminated. And Stevie G then watches his player assault the opponent in the tunnel and says nothing. After another of this players kung fu tackles the opponent goalie, breaking bones in his face.

👏

What did you expect Milan? Its fucking Gerrard, a holier than thou, a victim as always. I hope this comes back and bites them hard.

[NikkiCFC 8,062]

If we reach finals in both CL and Fa Cup we will play 16 games in the last 8 weeks of the season which is basically a game every 3 days. This is why it is great we have big squad and competition for every position. Every player has his part. 

[Blues Forever 1,232]

Rangnick: "I would have liked to be involved. Unfortunately, due to the numerous imponderables within the club, I currently don't see myself in a position to take on sporting responsibility at Schalke."

[killer1257 3,282]

Bayern is currently winning 3:0 with 10 men and Davies received a red card in minute 13. All goals came after the red card. Shows how bad the Bundesliga currently is. It is so easy to score goals there compared to the good leagues like Pl or La Liga 

Edit: 4:0 lol

Edited March 20, 2021 by killer1257

[Vesper 29,076]

26 minutes ago, killer1257 said:

Bayern is currently winning 3:0 with 10 men and Davies received a red card in minute 13. All goals came after the red card. Shows how bad the Bundesliga currently is. It is so easy to score goals there compared to the good leagues like Pl or La Liga 

Edit: 4:0 lol

damn 

Lewa already on a 10 man , 22 minute hat trick

[ZAPHOD2319 4,531]

Watched the second half of the Dortmund game. They are not making top 4. Haaland is gone at the transfer window. He scored the equalizer and he was still mad when he left the pitch. 

[Mário César 1,004]

Pepe gets injured... Well, lets see if he becomes fits to play agains us 

[Tomo 21,733]

On 19/03/2021 at 18:05, Vesper said:

We have a puncher's chance to at least get to the final, and in a one off game (think 2012) anything can happen.

GREAT DRAW

To whisper ir quietly any of those three likely opponents in the final may suit us if we get there.

Bayern leave a shit loads of space in behind we can exploit, TT has already demonstrated he can tactically combat them and him and Silva will be so hungry to avenge last year on a personal level.

PSG will feel the same anxiety we use to in this competition before we finally done it (I still feel tense about what's to come but not even half as much as I was before we had one in the bag already), although as the situation with TT and Silva they could also come into it doubly determined after last year. Hopefully Pochettino's track record of crumbling in the crunch continues if it's them in the final.

Likewise City will have that anxiety there of needing to do it for the first time which will hopefully play to our advantage.

Funnily enough the one that may suit us the least is Dortmund, a team fully embracing the underdog tag plus Haaland and Sancho up front has danger written all over it.

[cosmicway 1,333]

Current Elo ratings from clubelo.com:

Man. City = 2022
Dortmund = 1814
Porto =1798
Chelsea = 1894
Bayern = 2015
PSG = 1859
Real Madrid = 1913
Liverpool = 1904

Probability analysis based on those ratings gives the following results (probability and fair price in parenthesis)

finalists pairs

Man. City - Porto 5.5% (18.24)
Man. City - Chelsea 12% (8.33)
Man. City - Real Madrid 12% (8.32)
Man. City - Liverpool 11% (9.09)
Dortmund - Porto 1.3% (77)
Dortmund - Chelsea 2.8% (35.15)
Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.8% (35.14)
Dortmund - Liverpool 2.6% (38.35)
Bayern - Porto 5% (20)
Bayern - Chelsea 11% (9.13)
Bayern - Real Madrid 11% (9.13)
Bayern - Liverpool 10% (9.96)
PSG - Porto 1.8% (57.07)
PSG - Chelsea 3.8% (26.06)
PSG - Real Madrid 3.8% (26.04)
PSG - Liverpool 3.5% (28.43)


winner

Man. City 26.3% (3.81)
Dortmund 3.9% (25.86)
Porto 4.2% (23.76)
Chelsea 12.1% (8.29)
Bayern 23.7% (4.22)
PSG 5.9% (16.96)
Real Madrid 12.6% (7.91)
Liverpool 11.3% (8.82)
 

It appears Bayern is the somewhat attractive bet (the bookies offer 4.50).
Finalists pairs they do not offer.

I suspect however that PSG is underrated. It should be 1950 or threabouts.
If this is true then the table is modified and PSG and also Real become also attractive (9.00 and 11.00 at the bookies respectively).

Modified table with PSG at 1950:

finalists pairs

Man. City - Porto 5.3% (18.96)
Man. City - Chelsea 11.6% (8.66)
Man. City - Real Madrid 11.6% (8.65)
Man. City - Liverpool 10.6% (9.44)
Dortmund - Porto 1.2% (83.41)
Dortmund - Chelsea 2.6% (38.08)
Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.6% (38.06)
Dortmund - Liverpool 2.4% (41.55)
Bayern - Porto 4.3% (23.02)
Bayern - Chelsea 9.5% (10.51)
Bayern - Real Madrid 9.5% (10.51)
Bayern - Liverpool 8.7% (11.47)
PSG - Porto 2.7% (36.82)
PSG - Chelsea 5.9% (16.81)
PSG - Real Madrid 6% (16.8)
PSG - Liverpool 5.5% (18.34)


winner

Man. City 25.3% (3.96)
Dortmund 3.6% (28.01)
Porto 4.1% (24.49)
Chelsea 11.7% (8.58)
Bayern 20.6% (4.85)
PSG 11.6% (8.59)
Real Madrid 12.2% (8.18)
Liverpool 11% (9.12)

[Jase 43,479]

cc @Milan