Chelsea Transfers

[NikkiCFC 8,286]

 

[1905didierblue 748]

On 11/10/2019 at 6:27 AM, Blues Forever said:

Varane, Koulibaly, and Van Dijk.

How many can we realistically get?

Pool won't sell vvd unless it's a 150-200mil bid. Why would varane even want to move from RM to Chelsea? 

Koulobaly - not at all sold that he is anywhere near world class. Also, Napoli has given 15 goals in 12 games, we have conceded 17 in 12 and 4 in last 6. I honestly don't believe the koulibaly hype.

[NikkiCFC 8,286]

3 minutes ago, 1905didierblue said:

Koulobaly - not at all sold that he is anywhere near world class. Also, Napoli has given 15 goals in 12 games, we have conceded 17 in 12 and 4 in last 6. I honestly don't believe the koulibaly hype.

Yeah I also noticed he was at fault for many goals lately. 

[1905didierblue 748]

On 11/9/2019 at 5:30 AM, Vesper said:

£135m Hazard 

£9m Ola Aina

£8m Kalas

£8m Luiz

£8m Hector

£5m Omeruo

£30m Bakayoko

£30m Bats

£50m Morata

£30m Alonso

£40m Zouma

£10m Moses

£13m Zappacosta

£12m Drinkwater

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell)

£10m Baba

£7m Lewis Baker

£7m Juan Castillo

£8m Jake Clarke-Salter 

£10m Kenedy

£5m Matt Miazga

£2m Richard Nartey

£5m  Charly Musonda

£5m Lucas Piazón

£5m Danilo Pantic

£8  Izzy Brown

£8m Marco van Ginkel (when fully fit)

£25m Azpi

£3m  Jay Dasilva

£4m Kasey Palmer

£30m Barkely

£10m Pedro

£10m Giroud

 

I don't think we should take the sales of this year too. It seems like the club/board had well anticipated the ban, bought the likes of kepa/puli etc in 17/18. We had a net spend of 120+mil in that year. So this year seems to be just a correction of that. So the likes of Eden, omerou, Palmer, da Silva, hector, kalas, Aina and Luiz should not be included on the list.

Also, giroud, Pedro, mvg, kenedy, Jake clarke-salter, musonda, are in the last year of their contracts, same as willian. Don't think these guys would fetch anything is we want to sell them, neither would they sign an extension just for us to try and make a quick buck out of them. Piàzon has a contract till 2021, but a loan spell till the end of his contract. Won't be surprised if the club has given up totally on him. Just get his wages off the book.

Also, I don't think we would be able to offload drinkwater for 12mil. I mean we can hardly find a club to pay his wages, finding a club to pay that fee and his wages will be next to impossible. Out of the whole list, I think these are the ones which should be counted:

£30m Bakayoko

£30m Bats

£50m Morata

£30m Alonso

£40m Zouma

£10m Moses

£13m Zappacosta

£10m Baba

£7m Lewis Baker

£7m Juan Castillo

£5m Matt Miazga

£2m Richard Nartey

£5m Danilo Pantic

£8  Izzy Brown

£25m Azpi

£30m Barkely

So all of this is close to 300mil. And we would need a 2nd and 3rd choice ST. A first choice CB (that is what zouma is), LB, Rb, a first and second choice Rw.

[1905didierblue 748]

11 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

 

Did not he also score the winner in a CL game against inter after being 0-2 down?

[Alabama 1,992]

12 minutes ago, 1905didierblue said:

Did not he also score the winner in a CL game against inter after being 0-2 down?

assisted the winner...

[Magic Lamps 11,692]

12 hours ago, NikkiCFC said:

 

He's 19. He will always have a run of bad form from time to time. What is more worrying is that he appeas to be a bot of an arrogant diva from numerous rumours.  Hope he will get that ironed out

[Vesper 30,085]

On 11/11/2019 at 9:57 AM, 1905didierblue said:

I don't think we should take the sales of this year too. It seems like the club/board had well anticipated the ban, bought the likes of kepa/puli etc in 17/18. We had a net spend of 120+mil in that year. So this year seems to be just a correction of that. So the likes of Eden, omerou, Palmer, da Silva, hector, kalas, Aina and Luiz should not be included on the list.

Also, giroud, Pedro, mvg, kenedy, Jake clarke-salter, musonda, are in the last year of their contracts, same as willian. Don't think these guys would fetch anything is we want to sell them, neither would they sign an extension just for us to try and make a quick buck out of them. Piàzon has a contract till 2021, but a loan spell till the end of his contract. Won't be surprised if the club has given up totally on him. Just get his wages off the book.

Also, I don't think we would be able to offload drinkwater for 12mil. I mean we can hardly find a club to pay his wages, finding a club to pay that fee and his wages will be next to impossible. Out of the whole list, I think these are the ones which should be counted:

£30m Bakayoko

£30m Bats

£50m Morata

£30m Alonso

£40m Zouma

£10m Moses

£13m Zappacosta

£10m Baba

£7m Lewis Baker

£7m Juan Castillo

£5m Matt Miazga

£2m Richard Nartey

£5m Danilo Pantic

£8  Izzy Brown

£25m Azpi

£30m Barkely

So all of this is close to 300mil. And we would need a 2nd and 3rd choice ST. A first choice CB (that is what zouma is), LB, Rb, a first and second choice Rw.

No, and I will go player by player. You made numerous and large errors

number one, I am talking about the cash we will have, and I am NOT going back to previous years where business has already been completed and the books closed (the only outlay from last year was Kovacic, so a £40m net spend for summer 2019 is hardly backbreaking) I am trying to keep this as clean as possible in terms of revenue on hand, and a 40m pound window last summer is clearly within the accepted boundaries of the club spending in a summer window, so I am closing the books on all previous windows, as if there were no bans we would have spent far more anyway, and that money carries forward in my accounting method. You cannot go back to 2017 and 2018 and try and unskew spending then, as the club was not under ban then and the did what they did (foolishly I think).I we go that route, we could go back to the entire time Abramovich has owned the club and use outlays versus intakes to justify anything, whether positive or negative. The monies are the monies, and I am only dealing withe fiscal year starting with summer 2020 and on (unless we get the January 2020 ban over turned, which effects nothing in terms of revenues from sales anyway.) I could even do it your way (put the sales from last year in and pull out Kovacic's costs), and it still leaves over 500m in the transfer kitty. I did not do that because I refuse to accept that 40m total spent on 2 windows is out of the ordinary, when it is staggering low given our history.

that all said

you pulled Eden and his £135m off the list

you pulled £9m Ola Aina off the list, and he WAS sold already

you pulled £8m Luiz off the list, sold already

you pulled £8m Hector (he is sold in January, done deal)

you pulled £5m Omeruo, who was sold already

you pulled £13m Mario Pašalić off the list, who Atlanta have already said they will exercise his buy option in 2020

you pulled £3m  Jay Dasilva who already was sold

you pulled of £4m Kasey Palmer already sold

 

Pedro and Groud are in demand for a January sale, many clubs want them and I estimate 10m for each,: If a little less, well chalk that off to the 50m wiggle room I gave when I cam up with the range of 538m to 588m. I see no reason to not sell them, they barely play now and we can cover for them. Other than the FA Cup, we only have a few CL games left other than the league itself (we are out of the EFL cup) unless we finish 3rd in the CL group and drop down to the EL.

Jake-Clarke Salter is under contract until summer 2022 and £8m for him is hardly a stretch.

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2019/07/24/new-contract-and-loan-for-clarke-salter

£5m Lucas Piazón is under contract until 2022 (not 2021 as you said) and I think Rio Ave will buy him, he is finally healthy and is playing wel there in his last few games, maybe for a little less than 5m, but now we are down into a very small difference in price

Marco van Ginkel has expressed interest in renewing and then being sold (as a favour to the club for dealing with his massive injuries) IF he is healthy he is easily worth 8m, he was a monster for PSV his last healthy season there (captained them as a loan player and lead them to a title) He is still only 26, so not a 30/31yo and out player

As long as Drinkwater gets healthy, I see no reason why we cannot get 10 or 12m for him, and if we need to partially pay his wages, so be it. His health is the key, and how he performs the rest of thsi season. We never should have purchased him,  but he is a great player for a midlevel EPL club, far better than 30 or more CMF's now on rosters across the EPL..

Monaco has a £36m (it was £38m but the pound is stronger now) option to buy Bakayoko, but I think we will lower that and finally get rid of him, thus my £30m price

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell) THIS one I do concede may not happen (I think we will renew him) and was a big part of my 50m wiggle room

£10m Kenedy  (He is playing well at Getafe, and I still think we renew him again, he is only 23 years old, and is NOT a poor player) I think we renew and sell him.

£5m  Charly Musonda is under contract until 2022 and I fully believe we get around this amount of cash for him

 

lets say, finally, for arguments sake

that the 2020 contract expiry players ALL leave on frees

so

subtract (from my £588m fully itemised list)

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell)

£10m Kenedy

£8m Marco van Ginkel (when fully fit)

£10m Pedro (we will get close to thsi if we sell in January, but lets say zero for this)

£10m Giroud (same as Pedro)

total

£63m

that still leaves 

£525m in the kitty, and removes most uncertainty in terms of final figures (and IF we do get around £10m a piece for Pedro and Giroud, we are back up to £545m, which is well within my pre-stated margin of error)

Conclusion: I 100% stand by my post and you are over £200m off with your £300m figure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1905didierblue 748]

29 minutes ago, Vesper said:

No, and I will go player by player, you made massive errors

number one, I am talking about the cash we will have, and I am NOT going back to previous years where business has already been completed and the books closed (the only outlay from last year was Kovacic, so a £40m net spend for summer 2019 is hardly backbreaking) I am trying to keep thsi as clean as possible in terms of revenue on hand, and a 40m pound window last summer is clearly within the accepted boundaries of the club spending in a summer window, so I am closing the books on all previous windows, as if there were no bans we would have spent far more anyway, and that money carries forward in my accounting method. You cannot go back to 2017 and 2018 and try and unskew spending then, as the club was not under ban then and the did what they did (foolishly I think).I we go that route, we could go back to the entire time Abramovich has owned the club and use outlays versus intakes to justify anything, whether positive or negative. The monies are the monies, and I am only dealing withe fiscal year starting with summer 2020 and on (unless we get the January 2020 ban over turned, which effects nothing in terms of revenues from sales anyway.) I could even do it your way (put the sales from last year in and pull out Kovacic's costs), and it still leaves over 500m in the transfer kitty. I did not do that because I refuse to accept that 40m total spent on 2 windows is out of the ordinary, when it is staggering low given our history.

that all said

you pulled Eden and his £135m off the list

you pulled £9m Ola Aina off the list, and he WAS sold already

you pulled £8m Luiz off the list, sold already

you pulled £8m Hector (he is sold in January, done deal)

you pulled £5m Omeruo, who was sold already

you pulled £3m  Jay Dasilva who already was sold

you pulled of £4m Kasey Palmer already sold

 

Pedro and Groud are in demand for a January sale, many clubs want them and I estimate 10m for each,: If a little less, well chalk that off to the 50m wiggle room I gave when I cam up with the range of 525m to 575m. I see no reason to not sell them, they barely play now and we can cover for them. Other than the FA Cup, we only have a few CL games left other than the league itself (we are out of the EFL cup) unless we finish 3rd in the CL group and drop down to the EL.

Jake-Clarke Salter is under contract until summer 2022 and £8m for him is hardly a stretch.

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2019/07/24/new-contract-and-loan-for-clarke-salter

£5m Lucas Piazón is under contract until 2022 (not 2021 as you said) and I think Rio Ave will buy him, he is finally healthy and is playing wel there in his last few games, maybe for a little less than 5m, but now we are down into a very small difference in price

Marco van Ginkel has expressed interest in renewing and then being sold (as a favour to the club for dealing with his massive injuries) IF he is healthy he is easily worth 8m, he was a monster for PSV his last healthy season there (captained them as a loan player and lead them to a title) He is still only 26, so not a 30/31yo and out player

As long as Drinkwater gets healthy, I see no reason why we cannot get 10 or 12m for him, and if we need to partially pay his wages, so be it. His health is the key, and how he performs the rest of thsi season. We never should have purchased him,  but he is a great player for a midlevel EPL club, far better than 30 or more CMF's now on rosters across the EPL..

Monaco has a £36m (it was £38m but the pound is stronger now) option to buy Bakayoko, but I think we will lower that and finally get rid of him, thus my £30m price

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell) THIS one I do concede may not happen (I think we will renew him) and was a big part of my 50m wiggle room

£10m Kenedy  (He is playing well at Getafe, and I still think we renew him again, he is only 23 years old, and is NOT a poor player) I think we renew and sell him.

£5m  Charly Musonda is under contract until 2022 and I fully believe we get around this amount of cash for him

 

lets say, finally, for arguments sake

that the 2020 contract expiry players ALL leave on frees

so

subtract (from my £575m fully itemised list)

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell)

£10m Kenedy

£8m Marco van Ginkel (when fully fit)

£10m Pedro (we will get close to thsi if we sell in January, but lets say zero for this)

£10m Giroud (same as Pedro)

total

£63m

that still leaves 

£512m in the kitty, and removes most uncertainty in terms of final figures (and IF we do get around £10m a piece for Pedro and Giroud, we are back up to £532m, which is well within my pre-stated margin of error)

Conclusion: I 100% stand by my post and you are over £200m off with your £300m figure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What? Hazard, and the 18/19 guys have been sold so those can be included, but not the ones bought just a year ago? How does that make sense? 

There is a 18/19 outlay and a 19/20 outlay and a 20/21 outlay. 

The only reason I even bought up the 18/19 buys, is because you are somehow adding the 19/20 sold players for the next summer kitty. You can't carry that forward on the books. Hazard is done. His 100/130m sale will have no impact on the 20/21 book.

If the 18/19 boughts can't be counted on your books next year, how can the 19/20 sold be counted?

For the 20/21 summer, only the sales done in 20/21 will be counted. Hazard's, omerou, and the rest can not be included in your figures at all. They are for the 19/20 books and that is the point I am trying to make.

Fair enough on JKS, did not know he had extended. If he has, I would rather he go on loan.

Drinkwater was healthy this window, I did not see any clubs banging on our doors to take him off our hands, even on loan. So how can you make that assumption that he will fetch that sum?

My conclusion: I am sorry, but I still can't make any sense of how you have included this year's sales in your transfer kitty for next summer. Makes absolutely no sense. And on the other hand you are saying that our transfers should have nothing to do with previous years, which I totally agree. 

In short, let's wait for the 20/21 summer window to happen and see how much we spend.shoukd give a fair indication

[Vesper 30,085]

On 11/11/2019 at 1:43 PM, 1905didierblue said:

What? Hazard, and the 18/19 guys have been sold so those can be included, but not the ones bought just a year ago? How does that make sense? 

There is a 18/19 outlay and a 19/20 outlay and a 20/21 outlay. 

The only reason I even bought up the 18/19 buys, is because you are somehow adding the 19/20 sold players for the next summer kitty. You can't carry that forward on the books. Hazard is done. His 100/130m sale will have no impact on the 20/21 book.

If the 18/19 boughts can't be counted on your books next year, how can the 19/20 sold be counted?

For the 20/21 summer, only the sales done in 20/21 will be counted. Hazard's, omerou, and the rest can not be included in your figures at all. They are for the 19/20 books and that is the point I am trying to make.

Fair enough on JKS, did not know he had extended. If he has, I would rather he go on loan.

Drinkwater was healthy this window, I did not see any clubs banging on our doors to take him off our hands, even on loan. So how can you make that assumption that he will fetch that sum?

My conclusion: I am sorry, but I still can't make any sense of how you have included this year's sales in your transfer kitty for next summer. Makes absolutely no sense. And on the other hand you are saying that our transfers should have nothing to do with previous years, which I totally agree. 

In short, let's wait for the 20/21 summer window to happen and see how much we spend.shoukd give a fair indication

It is simple, I am including the monies gained from the sales I listed and writing off the two windows were were banned, with only Kovacic coming in via a loophole. A £40m net spend is nothing out of the ordinary for the club (especially for two windows, and we had a net £125m spend the year before to really show the decrease)), and if we had not been banned it would have been higher. My numbers are 100% legit. As sated even if we get ZERO for the 2020 contract expiring player, we still have over £500m in the kitty, monies that were built up since the summer of 2019.

Also, I did NOT even include all the loan fees we are pulling in, so that really tips the balance even more in my favour.

BUT

Lets go ahead and pull Kovacic's £40m from the kitty, BUT we then add back in the £18m in cumulative loan fees we are getting for all the loanees, so a net minus £22m outflow.

Subtract that from the £545m number (assuming we get the cash I estimated for Giroud and Pedro, and also ZERO on all the others (which is not a sure thing but I will put it at zero for arguments sake) and is still leaves  £523m and even if we only get £5m a piece for Giroud and Pedro, (and again, zero on all the rest) it leaves £513m. Even under the worst case scenario (ZERO of all, even Giroud and Pedro and Willian, etc) it still leaves $503m in the kitty (and again, that INCLUDES the spend on Kovacic for the year before)

Plus do not forget I already shorted us £6m to 8m (depending on the FOREX euros to GBP rate) on the actually strike price for Bakayoko, so in theory you can add that back to kitty (but I prefer to be realistic).

My numbers are completely legit, sorry

Yours are not, you pull out £200m in total sales (the bloody quid doesn't vanish because it wasn't spent) revenue and then try, at the same time to foist Kovacic back onto the the tab, (which, in your reasoning, means that a net 22m total spend for TWO windows is normal for CFC) But even doing all that it still is £503m at a minimum (in a truly worst case) that we have. and that includes a lot of pure zeroed-out losses of revenue (including Willian).

 

[1905didierblue 748]

44 minutes ago, Vesper said:

It is simple, I am including the monies gained from the sales I listed and writing off the two windows were were banned, with only Kovacic coming in via a loophole. A £40m net spend is nothing out of the ordinary for the club (especially for two windows, and we had a net £125m spend the year before to really show the decrease)), and if we had not been banned it would have been higher. My numbers are 100% legit. As sated even if we get ZERO for the 2020 contract expiring player, we still have over £500m in the kitty, monies that were built up since the summer of 2019.

Also, I did NOT even include all the loan fees we are pulling in, so that really tips the balance even more in my favour.

BUT

Lets go ahead and pull Kovacic's £40m from the kitty, BUT we then add back in the £18m in cumulative loan fees we are getting for all the loanees, so a net minus £22m outflow.

Subtract that from the £532m number (assuming we get the cash I estimated for Giroud and Pedro, and also ZERO on all the others (which is not a sure thing but I will put it at zero for arguments sake) and is still leaves  £510m and even if we only get £5m a piece for Giroud and Pedro, (and again, zero on all the rest) it leaves £500m.

Plus do not forget I already shorted us £6m to 8m (depending on the FOREX euros to GBP rate) on the actually strike price for Bakayoko, so in theory you can add that back to kitty (but I prefer to be realistic).

My numbers are completely legit, sorry

Yours are not, you pull out £200m in total sales (the bloody quid doesn't vanish because it wasn't spent) revenue and then try, at the same time to foist Kovacic back onto the the tab, (which, in your reasoning, means that a net 22m total spend for TWO windows is normal for CFC) But even doing all that it still is £500m at a minimum that we have. and that includes a lot of pure zeroed-out losses.

 

My God!!! Oh man. You cant go back a window and just include whatever you want mate. It's neither the way accounting works, nor the way the club does. If we were banned this year, that is the exact same reason why we bought pulisic a season before. And that's why I said, that we over spent in 18/19 so as to cover for this window. Understand what I said in the first post?

The club CAN NOT include hazard's sale in the 20/21 books. Which means that 100mil is not available plus it is already offset by pulisic's transfer too.

You can keep on saying about the 500mil figure, but thats nothing but a stupid way too look at it. You want to have a bet how much we are going to spend next sunmer?

The club can't spend 500mil on players while amortization sales are there just for 250mil. Not anymore. Or we would need massive amounts for roman, which is not happening.

Also how am I putting In kovacic twice? What are you understanding that I am saying? The only thing I am repeatedly saying is, you can't use the last season's sales, to include for the next summer, that is not how accounting works also you are not including what the club did the transfer window to compensate for this ban. 

You either look at every thing individually or then look at thinfs at a whole. Don't see at things the way you want.

I am not disputing the actual numbers, I am disputing how much budget we will have available. And it will not have the sales available from this year's seasons. That's all I am saying.

 

 

[killer1257 3,282]

 

This is why we should go for a already world class player like Ziyech

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