La Liga Thread

[Vesper 29,040]

Crunching the numbers: what’s going wrong for Zidane at Real Madrid

https://theathletic.com/2231678/2020/12/04/zidane-real-madrid/

Real Madrid’s performance in Tuesday’s 2-0 Champions League group defeat at Shakhtar Donetsk was so bad it had to be seen to be believed. But the limp defeat in Ukraine was also strangely predictable due to the trajectory the team has been on for quite some time now.

Third in the group going into Wednesday’s final game at home to Borussia Monchengladbach, Madrid have to beat the Germans to ensure progress in the competition. A draw could see them drop to the Europa League for the first time ever, while a defeat would see them eliminated from a UEFA competition before Christmas for the first time since 1994-95.

Meanwhile, Madrid’s domestic form is so poor there are serious concerns as to whether Zinedine Zidane’s side will make the top four to qualify for next season’s Champions League. They have taken just one point from their last three games against Valencia, Villarreal and Alaves.

All this leaves Zidane under huge pressure, with some well-connected sources around the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu claiming club president Florentino Perez has been troubled and embarrassed by recent performances. Should the team fail to progress to the Champions League last 16 and suffer more upsets in La Liga games against Sevilla today and Atletico Madrid next weekend, then even Zidane’s past glories as a player and coach might not save him from the sack.

Autumn or winter crises are not exactly a novelty at Madrid.

Zidane became their coach the first time around in January 2016 when Rafael Benitez’s six months in the job had gone badly, while just over 12 months ago there was widespread speculation the Frenchman was about to be replaced following a poor start to the season culminating in a disappointing 0-1 La Liga defeat at Real Mallorca.

Bouncing back from such early-season setbacks to finish the campaign with a big trophy is important to Real’s self-image. Zidane won the first of three Champions League trophies just five months after replacing Benitez, while last summer his team came on strong post the COVID-19 enforced lockdown to win the 2019-20 La Liga title.

This current crisis does seem different though and now there are new issues and challenges which Zidane has to face.

---

The back-to-back losses against Shakhtar in the week and Alaves last weekend probably add up to the worst week of either Zidane’s stints as coach.

Things could get bleaker still if he fails to get a positive result against former Madrid head coach Julen Lopetegui and his Sevilla side on Saturday afternoon. A win would, at least temporarily, reduce the current seven-point gap to leaders Real Sociedad. A defeat could see them drop to as low as eighth in the table.

Lopetegui’s side have had a tough week themselves, losing 4-0 to Chelsea at home on Wednesday night. That game represented Sevilla’s worst result of the season, however they finished November with a 100 per cent record and, all things considered, are having a strong season. Real though are on the slide.

The chart below shows the xG (expected goals) and goal difference over time for Real since the start of 2017-18. The yellow line represents the underlying quality of the team, considering their expected goals over time. The red line shows their goal difference over the same period. The thinking is that where expected goals go, goals will follow (so the higher the yellow line, the better).

Focusing on the very end of the chart shows Zidane’s side this season are on a slide. Results have been poor, and so have performances. This current spell is the worst that Real have been in for some time, nearly on par with the end of 2018-19, where they lost three of their last four matches of the season (albeit when they had little to play for and many players knew their time at the club was almost over).

Lopetegui’s spell at the club coincides with a time where, over a short period of time, performance levels were relatively stable, albeit slowly on the decline.

So what are the issues this season that are leading to that downfall in performance?

Attack-wise, Real are in fact creating slightly fewer but far better chances per game compared to last season. Their non-penalty xG per game of 1.66 is the second-highest in the league behind Barcelona. That’s ahead of last season’s 1.45. Over the course of a whole season, that’s an additional eight goals, enough to turn losses into draws and draws into wins.

It’s also the same personnel providing those chances. Real’s top performers in terms of non-penalty xG last season were Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, Vinicius Junior and Casemiro. This season, it’s the exact same four.

The issues, therefore, are at the other end of the pitch. Real last season were the best side defensively in the league, conceding just 0.71 non-penalty xG per game. This season, they are just the eighth-best side statistically, conceding 0.99 non-penalty xG per game. It also doesn’t help that Real have conceded five penalties already this season (compared to just two all of last season).

An increase in both volume and quality of shots conceded doesn’t just happen for no reason. From the eye test at least, it seems to be down to a fairly unstructured pressing scheme. Real dominate possession as much as they usually do, up slightly from 58 per cent last season to 61 per cent this, but where they struggle is to control the game when in transition.

Real are something of a pressing team, not to the extent of Getafe or Athletic, but more so than a large number of sides in La Liga this season. Real’s PPDA (or opponent passes allowed per defensive action) is one of the lowest in the league.

Unlike those sides, though, opponents find it easier to beat that press and progress through Real. This season, only Cadiz allow opponents to move the ball upfield more in an average possession than Real do.

This idea that Madrid want to press, but are not doing it particularly well, is especially interesting as Zidane refers to pressing more often than any other tactical element when speaking to the media. He even suggests it as the key thing he wants his team to do.

“Football has changed from a physical point of view and the intensity is very high nowadays,” the Frenchman said before the first meeting with Shakhtar last month. “I’m all in favour of that, pressing high up and taking the game to the opposition. We could play deeper too and wait, but that’s not for me.”

The problems with Madrid’s midfielders rushing forward to press haphazardly, and opponents taking advantage to counter effectively, were shown up the following day when Shakhtar repeatedly ripped their defence apart in a 3-2 win at the Alfredo Di Stefano.

The same pattern was also evident in the 4-1 La Liga defeat at Valencia in early November, after which goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois appeared to suggest Zidane’s tactics were taking covering players out of their positions and leaving him less protected.

“We are being more attacking, including by pressing high up the pitch now, and opponents can break easier,” Courtois said that day.

So while pressing high up the pitch and forcing the opposition into mistakes could be helping Madrid to maintain a good number of chances created per game, it has a serious knock-on effect on their defensive numbers.

The same pattern was also clear when Cadiz could have been 4-0 up by half-time in their 1-0 La Liga victory at Madrid in early October, despite the Andalusians scoring just eight goals in their other 10 La Liga games so far. Just last weekend, Alaves also had plenty of other chances to win by more than their ultimate 2-1 scoreline.

---

Madrid’s players themselves seem to feel they are not really playing that badly, instead citing a lack of confidence.

“It is difficult to explain, above all after the first half we played, when we were really good, making lots of chances, but we did not score,” said Luka Modric on Spanish TV after the Shakhtar loss. “The second half, after their goal, everything changed and from there it was a different game. We began to be very nervous and we did not repeat what we had done in the first half. We lost a bit of confidence. We have to change that.”

Another midfielder Toni Kroos echoed the idea the team’s struggles was down to a loss of confidence caused by conceding poor goals.

“We didn’t start the game badly, but it is a bit like what is happening to us all season, in the games when we do score first we have more confidence and it is a different game,” Kroos said. “If the opponent scores first it is more difficult for us. It’s annoying when they score, and we’ve helped them to do it.”

It does seem strange that a team full of serial winners like Modric, Kroos, Karim Benzema and Raphael Varane can be so low on confidence that they do not react well to falling behind in games. Newer and younger players including Marcos Asensio, Ferland Mendy and Martin Odegaard do not have the experience or personality to step up at present.

It was striking to see both Varane and Mendy blaming each other after Shakhtar’s opening goal on Tuesday — and it was not difficult to find the individuals who were at fault.

Both French defenders could have cleared the ball, while lots of teammates had also come rushing back into the picture after Shakhtar’s initial counter appeared to have broken down. However nobody then actually dealt with the situation and instead, Dentinho gleefully ran through to score. The second goal was quite similar, in that no Madrid player dealt with the breaking Manor Solomon and he slammed home from the edge of the box.

That led to a look at the players who were not there due to injury, especially Fede Valverde, Dani Carvajal and most notably club captain Sergio Ramos. Eden Hazard being out means he has not been able to help their attacking input, but the losses of Valverde’s energy and athleticism in midfield, and the aggression and leadership of Ramos at the back seem huge.

Spanish statisticians have been quick to note the effect that Ramos’ absence tends to make a massive difference. With him in the team in 2020-21, they have played 10 games, won 6, drawn two and lost two, scoring 19 times and conceding 10. Without their skipper they have played five, won one, drawn one and lost three, scoring five times and conceding eight. Others pointed out that Madrid have lost seven of their last nine Champions League games without Ramos at the back.

While some observers, particularly outside Spain, might point to Ramos occasional haphazard defending as one of the team’s biggest problems, those closer to the team say the Andalusian’s mere presence makes a massive difference.

“Although we talk sometimes about Ramos’ tactical mistakes or lapses in concentration, or that he runs up into attack like crazy, the presence he has is immense,” says a source close to the dressing room. “He makes those around him much better. Just by being there, the team’s intensity levels rise. The difference is obvious, when he’s not there, he remains one of the best in the world, if not the best.”

That the loss of one player — even an inspirational leader like Ramos — has such a seismic effect on the team’s mentality is not a good sign.

And this perhaps does not speak highly of Zidane’s leadership of the team — although he might argue that allowing the dressing room to take charge of situations has been key to his successes in the past.

---

Zidane never blames any underperforming individuals for the team’s poor results, nor does he tend to offer excuses like players missing injured or refereeing calls (unlike some predecessors in the job). Instead he accepts he holds ultimate responsibility for the team’s performances. He also points out regularly that he has often been questioned over his two spells in charge, and he knows from his time as a player the pressures that come with the job of Real Madrid coach.

When the Frenchmen does get a little tetchy in media appearances is when it is suggested that his tactics are to blame, or the team lacks a coherent plan.

After quashing any ideas about resigning when replying to aggressive reporters following Tuesday’s game in Kiev, he suggested that more hard work and belief would help them come through this current blip.

“Many things have come together, but today we did not play badly,” he claimed. “We have pressed very high up, recovered many balls. (The problem) is not our style of play, the players did good things on the pitch today. If we had scored first, it would have been much easier. We must be able to handle these moments, but we will keep working hard and believe in what we are doing.”

A source close to the dressing room admits that tactical excellence has never been Zidane’s strong point, but previously the team had players up front who could live off fewer chances and rescue the team from tough moments in games.

“Zidane’s strength is in managing emotions and egos and hierarchies in the dressing room, everybody can see that,” the source says. “But previously with Cristiano Ronaldo, and Gareth Bale to a lesser extent, you could boot the ball up the pitch, and they would get on the end of it and score. That way they fixed a lot of games which were going against them, in Champions and in La Liga. This hid a lot of other things.”

The same source says Madrid’s players are not expecting Zidane to come up with a big new tactical plan to fix things, and that the senior figures in the dressing room expect to be able to sort out problems themselves.

“In difficult moments the players have lots of meetings to see where the problem is and sort it out,” the source says. “The players are always going to have confidence in Zidane, for the trophies he has won, as a player, and then as a coach. But aside from that, the players know that it is on them, the weight falls on the dressing room.”

Getting the team physically, mentally and emotionally right post lockdown to grind their way to the title was one of Zidane’s biggest achievements as Madrid coach. The team could not call on Ronaldo (and did not use Bale), but they found a way to win a series of very tight games and it was enough to clinch the title in these most unusual of circumstances.

The source close to the dressing room agrees that Zidane has made some tactical tweaks during his second term in charge, namely the team are still focusing on pressing high as they did with such success post lockdown and there is also a new emphasis on playing the ball out from the back (to a much bigger extent than in previous years).

This has caused them some problems in games, but more than anything the source claims Madrid’s ageing squad are just exhausted, having put in a huge effort to win last year’s title. Now they are being faced with very little recovery time between games, and a mounting injury list.

“Confidence is an issue within the group,” the source says. “It slips when things do not go well from the start, and especially when teams go for them and take them on. But the biggest issue is physical. Madrid is one of the teams all over the world who has suffered most from the accumulation of games, and the new calendars. If you see the goal they conceded (against Shakhtar), teams are coming at them in waves, and it is happening a lot. It’s true they won La Liga but they are paying for that now, paying dearly.”

---

“I am responsible for this, I’m the coach,” a hurting but determined-looking Zinedine Zidane told the media. “So I must find solutions. I will keep fighting always, keep working, try and look for things to make the team better.”

That was Zidane speaking after a very disorganised, almost rabble-like Real Madrid team were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Leganes in January 2018.

Five months later, of course, Zidane was back on top after his Madrid beat Liverpool in Kiev to win a third straight Champions League title. He then resigned from the job, claiming fresh ideas and impetus were required, before returning just nine months later to fix things after Lopetegui and Solari’s short unsuccessful attempts at the job.

On his return Zidane talked a lot about making big changes to the squad, but that has not really proved possible. The one new galactico in Hazard has barely played since his €100 million arrival from Chelsea, and there has been little return for over €200 million spent on other players like Eder Militao, Mendy and Luka Jovic. As the numbers provided earlier show, the team’s leaders and most important players remain those who have been longest at the club — Ramos, Benzema and co. Zidane has kept faith with these, and even some who should really have been jettisoned long ago.

“Remember that two years ago, Solari decided that there were two players who could not play — Marcelo and Isco,” says another source close to the club. “He was heavily criticised, and he paid for it. But two years later people are realising that Solari was right. Zidane has trusted in players who should have been changed before, and the financial circumstances of the club have also had their impact in that lack of generational change.”

The problems in Madrid’s squad and tactics have therefore been clear for some years, but have never been fixed. It is also true that coaches who have tried to change things up tactically, such as Benitez and Lopetegui, have not lasted very long. Hiring a new coach now with different ideas – such as the willing and available Mauricio Pochettino – would likely only cause even more problems given the limitations of the current squad.

A team of winners that have grown old together can lift themselves for one-off games like the 3-1 Clasico win at Barcelona a few weeks ago, or even the 11 game title run-in, as they did in the summer. The experienced heads will likely do enough to beat Monchengladbach next week and regain enough form in La Liga to keep Florentino from wielding the axe.

Anyone hoping that Zidane will outline a new tactical plan to overcome the shortcomings in the squad, and the unique difficulties of this season, will surely be disappointed however.

His one tweak to get them to press more has left them more exhausted, lower on confidence, and defensively weak. So bouncing back from autumn and winter issues yet again to finish the season with a bang appears very unlikely.

[Vesper 29,040]

Police arrest Josep Maria Bartomeu after raid on Barcelona's Camp Nou

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/mar/01/police-raid-barcelonas-camp-nou-in-search-and-seize-operation

Police entered Barcelona’s stadium on Monday in a search and seize operation, with reports that former president Josep Maria Bartomeu is among those who have been arrested.

The club confirmed local authorities from Mossos d’Esquadra’s Economic Offences Unit were at the team’s headquarters on Monday morning and said they were collaborating with the police into the investigation into the club contracting monitoring services on social networks.

“FC Barcelona expresses its utmost respect for the judicial process in place and for the principle of presumed innocence for the people affected within the remit of this investigation” added the statement.

Spanish media said the operation was related to last year’s “Barça-gate,” in which club officials were accused of launching a smear campaign against current and former players who were critical of the club and then-president Bartomeu by allegedly hiring a social media company to publicly discredit them. He, current chief executive Òscar Grau, and Barcelona’s head of legal services, Román Gómez Pontí were arrested on suspicion of “unfair administration, corruption between individuals and money laundering,” according to Cadena SER radio station.

Catalan police later confirmed they had made several arrests, without confirming the number made or the identities of those detained.

Bartomeu and his board of directors resigned last year amid fallout from the controversy surrounding Lionel Messi. The club has been mired in political turmoil and debt prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.

 

[ZAPHOD2319 4,525]

Nice match this Sunday Atetico Madrid vs Real Madrid. It will could be a snooze fest draw, but no doubt both want it bad.

[OneMoSalah 8,788]

5 hours ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

Nice match this Sunday Atetico Madrid vs Real Madrid. It will could be a snooze fest draw, but no doubt both want it bad.

Hope Atletico win.

Be cool to see them win La Liga again, Simeone is an unbelievable manager and another La Liga on top of the other trophies hes won there would be another fantastic achievement.

A win v Real puts them 8 points ahead of Real and Barca still with a game in hand I think. 

[NikkiCFC 8,060]

So Bilbao will play two cup finals in two weeks lol

[Jase 43,479]

Atletico are bottling La Liga...

[NikkiCFC 8,060]

Embarrassing considering where they were at one point. 

[Jase 43,479]

If Barcelona win their game in hand tomorrow, they will be only 1 point behind Atletico and 2 ahead of Real.

And El Classico is taking place next weekend...

[Vesper 29,040]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

If Barcelona win their game in hand tomorrow, they will be only 1 point behind Atletico and 2 ahead of Real.

And El Classico is taking place next weekend...

Atleti choking hard down the stretch

[Jase 43,479]

Atletico had a game in hand and were 10 points clear of Barcelona and Real Madrid on Feb 1.

10 games later, they could be only 1 and 3 points ahead of both respectively...

[Jase 43,479]

Just now, Vesper said:

Atleti choking hard down the stretch

14 points dropped in the last 10 league games.

Just now, Jason said:

Atletico had a game in hand and were 10 points clear of Barcelona and Real Madrid on Feb 1.

10 games later, they could be only 1 and 3 points ahead of both respectively...

 

[Vesper 29,040]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

14 points dropped in the last 10 league games.

 

damn, I would be going BONKERS if we blew a lead like that and in so few games

especially in shitbox La Liga

where the bottom 2/3rds of the table are pure dregs

Edited April 4, 2021 by Vesper

[Jase 43,479]

El Clasico is next weekend and Atletico still gotta go to Barcelona next month.

[Jase 43,479]

2 minutes ago, Vesper said:

damn, I would be going BONKERS if we blew a lead like that and in so few games

especially in shitbox La Liga

where the bottom 2/3rds of the table are pure dregs

If that happens with us, TC would crash for days!

[Vesper 29,040]

El Clásico

http://www.sportnews.to/mysports/2021/la-liga-real-madrid-vs-barcelona-s3/

https://www.totalsportek.com/barcelona-five/

[Strike 7,260]

Thanks @Vesper!

[NikkiCFC 8,060]

Benzema is so underrated. One of the best strikers in the last 20 years.

[NikkiCFC 8,060]

Messi almost scored from corner.