Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 28,291]

Just now, Mário César said:

It's too early to give opinions on the future of the players The club hasn't even been judged yet There's no point wasting time on this

none will come here anyway I wager

but is nice to lay down preditictions overall

it hardly takes a tonne of research

 

[ZAPHOD2319 4,405]

What is realistic is snatching up Bob. He looks like he could be special. Injured, but he has looked good.

[Vesper 28,291]

31 minutes ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

What is realistic is snatching up Bob. He looks like he could be special. Injured, but he has looked good.

Foot:
left

the last thing we need is another left footed right winger

[Vesper 28,291]

22 hours ago, Vesper said:

Chelsea ready tempting offer to sign Lautaro Martinez

https://football-talk.co.uk/207473/Chelsea-ready-tempting-offer-to-sign-lautaro-martinez/

 

Chelsea remain keen on landing a striker in 2025 and although Victor Osimhen is their primary option, an alternative to the Nigerian has emerged in the shape of Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez.

In their bid to land the Argentine international, the Blues are ready to table a tempting offer to Inter Milan. As per Football Transfers, Chelsea are willing to include Benoit Badiashile, Carney Chukwuemeka and Mykhaylo Mudryk in a swap deal for the South American hitman.

Martinez recently penned a deal at the Giuseppe Meazza until 2028 and is valued at £93 million by Inter Milan, the report adds, and Chelsea are prepared to sweeten the deal by offering a up to three players – whose collective valuation stands at £110 million.

A transfer for Martinez is still in its formative stages but it will not come as a surprise if the west Londoners formally show an interest in his signing next summer.

Martinez better suited for Chelsea than Osimhen

Lautaro Martinez is the captain at Inter Milan but having enjoyed a successful career in Italy, he could be open to the prospect of pursuing a new challenge, especially in the Premier League.

The World Cup winner would perhaps be a better option for Chelsea as compared to Osimhen. Not only is he a more capable player in areas outside the box, but his conduct off the field is also better than that of the Napoli marksman, who is now on loan at Galatasaray.

Osimhen has caused controversy in the past by raising questions over his continuity in Naples while the issue regarding his future in the recently concluded transfer window was also not handled as professionally as it should have been by him and his entourage.

On the contrary, Martinez has maintained a low profile amid rumours linking him with a move away from the San Siro, and his dedication to Inter Milan has seen him get rewarded with the captain’s armband.

He would certainly be an exciting signing for Chelsea but the Blues’ attempt of signing him in a swap deal might be completely rebuked, especially given that would be offering players who have severely underperformed for them in recent years.

Lautaro no longer has a £93m release clause

he renewed in August until 2029 and volunatarily had the release clause removed

there is no chance he is leaving Inter for some time

he turns 30yo in summer 2027

so very unlikely we would even mover for him unless it was next summer (and at 28yo he will be past our age boundary) and that will be almost impossible, especially as he is the Inter captain now

the main teams I can see moving for him are Real and Barca, whichever one doesnt get Håland down the road, or maybe PSG (I canot see him all that enthused about moving to PSG) or maybe, maybe Arsenal (Gyökeres seems a better fit for them overall) or Pool

[Vesper 28,291]

 My predictions for Arsenal's summer 2025 3 main buys

CF    

Viktor Gyökeres

LW (one of the following)

Florian Wirtz 
Jamal Musiala  
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Rafael Leão

less likely

Xavi Simons
Nico Williams
Bradley Barcola 

CMF/DMF

Martín Zubimendi

or

maybe (if either are available)

Gavi or Pedri  

[Vesper 28,291]

Jhon Durán destroys xG

https://www.scoutednotebook.com/p/jhon-duran-destroys-xg-amad-does

Sharpshooters

Some players laugh in the face of Expected Goals.

Full disclosure: I think the metric is extremely useful and refer to it often. But I also understand that technique and player quality can make a mockery of it in certain individual cases. You should not dismiss it. You should not live and die by it. Use it to spot anomalies and patterns and then investigate the ‘why?’.

For example, if I spotted a player racking up incredible xG per 90 or posting gaping xG-Goal difference tallies, I would drop both names in the SCOUTED chat to see if the analysts have seen them before (the answer is usually yes). Then, the reasons why each outlier might exist would dictate whether I decide to track them further and watch more games.

With that out of the way…

Fucking hell, Jhon.

 

As per Stathead, Jhon Durán has averages more Non-Penalty Goals per 90 than any player in Premier League history with at least 450 minutes played. Yes, even more than Erling Haaland.

Of course, the sample size is very small - he has only started three PL games in his career - but this is your reminder that he is only 20 years old.

I repeat: Fucking hell, Jhon.

 

One of this reasons for this incredible scoring rate is a catalogue of xG-busting goals. Since the start of 2017/18 - the season that Stathead’s xG coverage begins - Durán ranks first for Non-Penalty Goals minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90; he is outperforming his NPxG tally by 0.6 per 90 minutes, more than doubling his expected output. In total, Durán has scored 8 NPG from 3.6 NPxG.

There are two other metrics that highlight his anomalous goal-scoring: Non-Penalty xG per Shot (NPxG/Shot) and Average Shot Distance.

Edinson Cavani ranks first for for NPxG/Shot among all Premier League players with at least 30 shots since the 2017/18 season. El Matador averaged 0.22 NPxG per effort, a testament to the world-class movement that defined his career. Haaland ranks joint-second with 0.20 NPxG/Shot, alongside Ramus Højlund and Taiwo Awoniyi.

Just quickly, I want to use this moment to introduce an example of the nuance needed to interrogate these outliers - and this can be done before even watching the player. Just as lots of shots does not always result in lots of goal, high NPxG/Shot on its own does not make a world-class striker.

Haaland averages 3.9 shots per 90. Consider that alongside 0.20 NPxG/Shot and it’s easy to see why he broke Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goals scored after the opening four games of a Premier League season. Haaland has quality and quantity.

Cavani averaged 2.2 during his time at United, Awoniyi averages 2.1 and Højlund is averaging 1.6;. So, despite the fact Højlund is taking good shots, he is getting fewer opportunities to do so. That’s why missing these chances became so poignant.

While Haaland can afford to miss a chance safe in the knowledge at least two more will be on the way, Højlund was often only presented with one. Whether this lower shot volume is as a result of player or team quality is another question for another time.

I can feel this is getting quite heavy so please do let me know if it’s too much for a Monday Night. Alternatively, if you want to discuss any of it further - reach out!

So, although all four players take “good” shots, they don’t all get lots of them.

Back to Durán.

The Colombian averages 0.10 NPxG/Shot, ranking him 91st in this list. This is further highlighted by Haaland’s average shot distance of 12.4 yards (pretty much the penalty spot) compared to Durán’s 16.7 yards - similar to Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.

So, how is he top of the Premier League’s all-time Non-Penalty Goal-scoring charts?

Well, to speak quickly on volume, he’s taking 4.4 shots every 90 minutes he spends on the pitch. He’s buying plenty of lottery tickets.

And while his shot locations are improving, his shot placement can be fantastic. The secret to this? Ball-striking.

---

 

Striking gold: Why every team needs a 'Project Nine'

Read full story

---

This attribute is often highlighted and discussed at SCOUTED. It features in Stephen’s excellent piece about the Project Nine. Conveniently, Durán was subject to transfer interest of that exact nature in the summer as Chelsea and West Ham battled for his signature.

A metric used to help unearth these ball-striking phenoms is Non-Penalty Expected Goals On Target (NPxGOT) minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals. Opta coined the difference between their xG and xGOT values as Shooting Goals Added (SGA). You can read more about it here. xGOT is always used to calculate ‘Goals Prevented’ for goalkeepers.

Essentially, this measures how likely a shot will go in based on where it is when it crosses the line, rather than the location it is taken from. Pre-shot vs. Post-shot.

“Stats Perform’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model is calculated using a logistic regression model. It is built on hundreds of thousands of on-target shots from our historical Opta data and includes both the original xG of the shot and the goalmouth location of where the shot ended up.

“The coordinates are taken at the point at which the shot was expected to cross the goal line to determine the goalmouth location of the shot and the interaction effect between the visible angle of the goal and the point that it crossed the line.”

There are limitations - for example, perhaps shot placement matters less the closer to the goal you are? - but this can help identify those killer finishers.

Another tangent. Feel free to skip ahead.

Callum Hudson-Odoi is an excellent case study. Since 2018/19, he is at 4+ SGA in the league due to, for the most part, his ability to finesse the ball into the far corner with his eyes closed.

This has been Hudson-Odoi’s go-to finish ever since we started watching him in 2017 - and he can do it from both angles. So, while the average player may struggle to execute these low-xG efforts, or at least be better-served finding a pass, Hudson-Odoi has trained it as an automatism.

For him, in this position, shooting is the best option.

I was surprised to learn that Durán’s NPxG total (11.66) is almost-identical to his NPxG total (10.53) during his Premier League career. However, due to the small sample size, this is skewed by some extremely speculative shooting during 2022/23, even by his standard.

Looking at the past two seasons, Durán is adding 0.10 SGA per 90. Of his eight Premier League goals, seven have a positive SGA. This is what excites me the most. This is what I will keep a closer eye on.

I wish I could continue but I know you are all waiting for the stats. I am also in danger of spending a disproportionately amount of time on an extremely small set of data.

TL;DR: Durán’s ability to kick the ball really nicely lots of times at the goal means he will continue score.

He won’t maintain the historic rate he is currently operating at, but there is enough quality and quantity to suggest he can keep up with the best.