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On 28/04/2020 at 6:19 PM, Vesper said:

it looks like we are massively pushing for Mertens (per Italian sources) so if we keep Giroud, and Tammy, then Mertens makes 3 (Michy HAS to go) so that would preclude a truly long term great striker coming in this summer

so two of our 3 strikers will be 33 and 34 years old, eeeek (technically both 34 at the end of the coming season, as Mertens turns 33 in 8 days)

I think despite the age of Mertens and Giroud, if we were to go into next season with a trio of them and Tammy as our striking options I would still view it as a significant improvement on this season.

The hope is that Tammy will continue to develop, and for me he was better earlier in the season when he had to fight to become first choice. Better competition I would like to think will bring out the best in him and from what I've seen his personality suggests that he will thrive better in that environment.

I think even at his age Giroud still offers something that would be very difficult to replace in that target man that runners behind him can benefit from. He's definitely a very credible plan B option that I think has been Lampard's biggest mistake this season choosing Bats over him as the second choice. However I think Lampard seems to have realised this and also just what Giroud can bring to the table in terms of varying the way we can play when he's on the pitch. Having an option like him next season where Lampard now knows how best to use him, compared to having him as a last resort option this season I think should be viewed as a positive.

I think with Mertens, anyone is a risk coming into the Premier League at that sort of age and expecting to make an impact but I think given the other two strikers we have and his versatility to be able to play as the central striker, but also behind a main striker, gives Lampard more options and more firepower because there's no disputing he knows where the goal is. If he could have a similar impact to Eto'o in his sole season here and add an extra 10+ goals to the team it could work really well.

The biggest thing is that Lampard trusts and has confidence in them all. If that is the case I think we'll look well equipped in that area of the pitch. We've looked threadbare and so reliant on Tammy this season because it was clear as day that Lampard didn't fancy either of Bats and Giroud. I think Giroud has changed Lampard's mind in the last couple of months and it's helped reinvigorate the group somewhat rather than trying to roll Tammy out at half fitness.

If a long term striking target isn't available or simply not attainable in the current climate, we could go far more wrong than a free transfer for Mertens. If anything, I can see demand for him getting bigger as clubs will be reluctant to spend big this summer in my opinion both from an economical and moral perspective.

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Liverpool signing another great attacking player is like City or Barca or Madrid signing another top attacking player. I just say "ah, who cares." They're already basically unstoppable in attack so what's Werner going to add other than depth? Just like when City signed Mahrez. It just means that they have a quality player to rotate. He doesn't make their first XI any scarier.

If he went to Arse/Spuds/United then I'd be bothered because they'd be getting considerably better.

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1 hour ago, Pizy said:

Liverpool signing another great attacking player is like City or Barca or Madrid signing another top attacking player. I just say "ah, who cares." They're already basically unstoppable in attack so what's Werner going to add other than depth? Just like when City signed Mahrez. It just means that they have a quality player to rotate. He doesn't make their first XI any scarier.

If he went to Arse/Spuds/United then I'd be bothered because they'd be getting considerably better.

Long term though, that (Werner at Liverpool) is bad news

they are ageing

let's look 3 years or so down the road  to the 23/24 season (I always stress future-forward thinking and long term continuity of excellence)

these are their ages now, and then the ages they would be during that season

Roberto Firmino 29yo in 5 months (so 32)

Virgil van Dijk 29yo in 2 months (so 32)

Joel Matip  29yo in 3 months (so 32)

Georginio Wijnaldum 30yo in 6 months (so 33)

Jordan Henderson 30yo in a month and a half (so 33)

James Milner will be 35 in January, so he will be gone

Adam Lallana  32yo in 10 days, so he will be gone

Sadio Mané turns 29 this coming season (so 32yo)

Salah turns 28 in a months and a half, (so 31yo the full season)

even Fabinho, Ox and Robertson turn 30 that season

lesser players will be gone, Dejan Lovren (turns 34 that season), Nathaniel Clyne will be 33 that season, Xherdan Shaqiri 32 that season

to show you how time really flies, that season will be Takumi Minamino's last full sub 30yo one

other than potentially some of their academy lads (Neco Williams, Rhian Brewster, Harvey Elliott, and Yasser Larouci, come to mind, but none of those are sure things) , the only 2 actually young (under 25), great players they have are TAA and Gomez, plus maybe the on-loan Harry Wilson (who turns 24yo this coming season, so is not some teen dream)

most of the core of the bindipper current team will be past or nearly past their prime, even if only just removed from it, and they certainly cannot unload them then in summer 2023 or even worse, 2024, at those ages, for much cash

so it is vital they bring in some young blood of a very high standard over the next 2 years, 3 years max, and Werner fits that bill

 

I break down players' senior careers thusly (and this is just a generalisation, obviously freaks come into play early (Mbappe and Pele for the two greatest examples) and latter can extend it (CR7, Zlatan, Maldini, Pirlo, Messi, etc)

1. Late teens, not much expected or delivered on a consistent basis, save for freaks like Pele and Mbappe (17,18,19yo) (I am not even going to deal with 15yo's, and 16yo's, as those types playing full time or near it at Big 6 League levels are insanely rare)

2. Early full time players, on the road to prime time, here you can have some already world class players appear with a larger cohort than the pure teens, TAA and Sancho are good examples (20,21,22)

3. Beginning to Early Prime (23,24,25) often many are already prime by this point, they just lack experience, especially if they are ona poor team and/or ina weak league

4. Full Prime (26, 27, 28, 29, 30yo)

5. Wind-down from peak, often comes with a dramatic fall off (31, 32, 33yo and 33yo is a stretch with 80/90% of players in terms of starting and playing at a peak level for a big team, other than keepers)

6. 34yo and up, most are usually shot (again, save for keepers) other than the genetic freaks

My favourite years for players (again this is just in general, there are many examples who are a wee bit older, and a few even younger) are the 10 years of 20yo up to 29yo, maybe 30 if we are talking a partial 30yo season. Most teens are too frustrating, and there really is a huge drop off once you get over 30yo for the vast majority of players, just look at EPL wingers and fullbacks and DMF's.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Alabama said:

Mertens deal will be pointless...

Unless Lamapard has the ambition of plunging Tammy careers into mediocrity...

What? We all want top stiker like Martinez, Werner... Someone who will instantly bench Tammy who does not have quality to be our first striker and never will.

Signing Mertens means exactly opposite of what you are saying. It means Frank has trust in Tammy to lead our attack.

Mertens is coming as a replacement for Michy/Pedro/Willian and is an upgrade on all of them.

 

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12 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

What? We all want top stiker like Martinez, Werner... Someone who will instantly bench Tammy who does not have quality to be our first striker and never will.

Signing Mertens means exactly opposite of what you are saying. It means Frank has trust in Tammy to lead our attack.

Mertens is coming as a replacement for Michy/Pedro/Willian and is an upgrade on all of them.

 

It’s true. It’s a massive While misguided sign of trust in Abraham. 
mertens tho is ancient. He might have been better than those in his prime but still?

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13 minutes ago, Magic Lamps said:

It’s true. It’s a massive While misguided sign of trust in Abraham. 
mertens tho is ancient. He might have been better than those in his prime but still?

I think this is a sign Roman doesn't want to pony up on transfers this Summer. I think this could be due to the amount of loan players we have on relatively high wages and the dead wood that will be impossible to shift. Only way we will get a top rank CF is if we can do a Giroud/Moses/Alonso(or Emerson) plus cash deal for Martinez. However, I am not that sold on Martinez anyway. 

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11 hours ago, Alabama said:

Mertens deal will be pointless...

Unless Lamapard has the ambition of plunging Tammy careers into mediocrity...

I'm thinking we should reject the Mertens deal for tactical reasons if nothing else.

Once before we've had the reputation of being a retirement club. If players believe they can still get a good contract out of Chelsea aged 33 they'll prioritise going elsewhere first, then come here at a time when they know the super competitive clubs won't touch them. It's just common sense; extend your playing years and maximise your career earnings. The retirement club reputation is hard to shake off so, no thanks to 33 year olds. (Unless it's for a very specific, short term need.)

It's hard, and getting harder, but we must compete for quality footballers at, or in advance of, their peak years.

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Thomas Partey: off to Arsenal or Manchester United or playing for a new deal?

https://theathletic.com/1768224/2020/04/30/thomas-partey-atletico-madrid/?source=dailyemail

thomas-partey-arsenal-manchester-united-

Atletico Madrid were quick to see the value of signing Thomas Partey when he arrived in Spain from Ghana as a raw but talented teenager eager to prove he could triumph in European football.

The midfielder’s worth has however not always been immediately clear to everyone at Atletico over the intervening years, even as he has emerged as one of the team’s key leaders, especially in their Champions League campaign this season.

Recent weeks have also brought an increase in media speculation about his future, with Arsenal and Manchester United among the clubs reportedly interested in paying his €50 million release clause.

Speaking to those around him, it seems clear now that Atletico must again move swiftly to avoid Thomas being tempted away from the Wanda Metropolitano sooner rather than later.


Thomas first wore an Atletico jersey as an 18-year-old trialist during a friendly against neighbours Getafe in October 2011, and the club’s then Juvenil youth team coach Javi Banos was instantly impressed.

“In 45 minutes you could see the type of player Thomas was, the class he had,” Banos tells The Athletic. “That day you could see above all the precision of his passes, he was always well positioned. We had a very good youth team, and he was coming in for a trial, but you could see he was a leader. You could tell quickly that he had a chance to make it to the top.”

Thomas had been playing on a non-contract basis with a second division team Tema Youth in Ghana, having moved away from his family aged just 10 years old with the aim of pursuing a professional career. He travelled to Spain for the trial with no guarantees but, with the support of agent Jose Jimenez, the risk paid off. Banos recommended that he be signed immediately. He was quickly accepted into the Atletico set-up and moved through the ranks as part of a talented generation which also included Saul Niguez, Javier Manquillo and Oliver Torres.

By the 2012-13 season he was established as a starter for Atletico’s B team, coached in the Segunda B third tier by former Atletico, Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla midfielder Alfredo Santaelena.

“Thomas was a kid with a lot of potential, who adapted very quickly to Spanish football,” Santaelena tells The Athletic. “He played a magnificent season during his first year with me. Technically he was very good, moved the ball well long or short, linked up with his team-mates, physically he was very powerful. He was always a very intelligent kid, although he needed his confidence built up. There were things that you had to work on but he always wanted to learn, which makes things much easier as a coach. That has helped him to go so far as a player.”

Banos also says that he was struck early by Partey’s dedication to improving and making it to the top. “He was a very humble player, and still is,” Banos says. “Every training session he gave 100 per cent, and he was happy to take advice from the coaching staff. Sometimes we would correct something, other times he would recognise it himself. Something I always remember was that, after every training session, he would shake your hand. Which is not something everyone does.”

Regularly called to train with the seniors by coach Diego Simeone during the 2012-13 season, that campaign ended with him in his tracksuit at the Santiago Bernabeu celebrating Atletico’s Copa del Rey final win over Real Madrid. Just two years after coming to Spain without any promises for a trial, he seemed to be heading straight for Atletico’s first team.


In 2013-14, Atletico followed that Copa success by winning the club’s first La Liga title in 18 years, an amazing achievement for everyone at the club.

However Partey could only cheer them on from afar, as he was on loan at a Real Mallorca team languishing in the Segunda Division. The following year was also spent on loan, at Primera Division side Almeria, and while he played regularly again, the team also struggled and eventually went down.

At the Vicente Calderon the central midfielders were Gabi Fernandez, Tiago Mendes and Koke, who was just a year ahead of Partey in Atletico’s youth system. Peers Oliver Torres and Saul were also by now getting game time with the first team under Simeone.

The two years away from Atletico were far from wasted experiences — Partey quickly settled and gained starting positions in both teams. He scored five goals in 37 Segunda games for Mallorca while aged just 21, then four in 31 league appearances for Almeria the following term at the top level.

On his return to Atletico there was more waiting however. Simeone still needed persuading that he could be trusted. Partey did not see even one minute of action at all through the first three months of 2015-16. When given a chance he made a quick impression — he scored in a Copa del Rey tie against third tier Reus. On his fourth sub appearance in La Liga he set up a late goal for Angel Correa to break the deadlock at Rayo Vallecano, then a few days later came off the bench again to hit a spectacular winner at home to Levante.

All this attacking potential was well and good, but Simeone was not yet ready to play Partey regularly in his preferred central midfield role. Instead he filled in at right-back, played wide, or was used as an impact substitute late in games, often providing spectacular goals such as the late face-saving equaliser in a 1-1 Champions League home draw with Qarabag in October 2017. Meanwhile he was being told to wait for his chance and watch everything then-club captain Gabi closely did, on and off the pitch.

“At Mallorca and Almeria, Thomas was often not playing in the position where he plays now, as a holding midfielder,” Santaelena says. “He played more as a No 10, a playmaker, as he always got forward very well. He has the characteristics to play in front of the back four, to protect his defence, like a ‘5’ in Argentine football. Here at Atletico, this position is fundamental for El Cholo. It is clear that he found it a bit more difficult at first to adapt to what El Cholo wanted from him. To replace Gabi in this position, they needed a player with a lot of personality.”

Atletico kept looking at other options to become Gabi’s successor on the pitch. Argentina international Augusto Fernandez was signed from Celta Vigo in January 2016, pushing Partey further down the pecking order. Another disappointment was just two minutes off the bench in Atletico’s 2018 Europa League final victory over Marseille, having played 90 minutes in both legs of the semi-final against Arsenal.

When Gabi finally left the club in summer 2018, Atletico immediately signed Rodrigo Hernandez from Villarreal as an apparent direct replacement. Neither Banos nor Santaelena have a bad word to say about Simeone’s decision-making, but it was clear that the Argentine felt Partey needed more time to develop.

Rodrigo’s exit to Manchester City last summer opened up a further opportunity, which Partey has grabbed. This season is his first regularly playing as deep lying central midfielder who can protect the defence and control the pace of a game through his passing. He has played all but 14 minutes of Atletico’s Champions League campaign, while starting 21 of their 27 La Liga games so far.

Statistics show his influence. Only one player (Konrad Laimer of RB Leipzig) has made more than his 29 tackles in the Champions League this term, while Partey also makes 1.6 key passes per 90 minutes. Eye-catching too are his 61.6 passes per game, at a completion rate of 84.8 per cent, especially considering Simeone’s side are not known for hogging possession.

“Thomas is now one of the leaders of the current team,” Santaelena says. “El Cholo knew how to manage the situation — and bit by bit Thomas has made the position his own. He has improved a lot in all aspects, including in how to manage a game, to control the pace, slow it down when required, or when to speed things up and move the ball forward quickly.”

The ability to get up the pitch and make an impact has not been lost. His goal at Valencia in La Liga in February was all his own work — he pressed up the pitch to win the ball, then carried it forward before powering a low shot to the net from 20 yards.

During his 26 international caps with Ghana he has also had a more prominent role, leading to nine goals so far, including a hat-trick in a World Cup qualifier against Congo in 2017.

“Thomas is a midfielder who plays in front of the defence,” Banos says. “He knows how to come back and get the ball, and distribute it effectively. And he always offers himself for the pass. He has improved a lot in recent years, especially his shooting — he now takes chances when they come, and has scored some pretty important goals. But he remains a ‘5’ — he wore that number in the youth team with us, and does again today.”

Thomas’ best performances this season have tended to come in the biggest games — at home to Real Madrid in La Liga and in both games against Liverpool in the Champions League, when Jurgen Klopp’s big favourites were outplayed and outsmarted over both legs. Banos says these displays are just confirmation of what those around him have known for a while now.

“Thomas has been playing very well for some seasons now,” he says. “Some people, in the media, and the fans, maybe noticed those big games this season. But for two years now he has been at a very high level, showing that he is among the best players in his position in Europe. Obviously the game at Anfield, or against Madrid in La Liga, showed that he could play for any of the biggest clubs around.”


Partey’s experiences of how difficult it has been to reach the top motivated him to buy a share in Madrid-based lower league side Alcobendas Sport last summer, as one of a consortium also including his representative Jose Jimenez.

The idea is to provide a landing post to help young African players avoid some of the pitfalls which can happen when promising talents take often perilous routes in trying and make a career in Europe. A significant investment has seen both Santaelena and Banos hired as coaches at a team which competes in Grupo VII of Spain’s Tercera Division (actually a regionalised fourth tier).

“Thomas is one of the socios in charge of the club,” Santaelena says. “Between Jose and him they bring African players, from countries like Ghana and the Ivory Coast, who are top prospects. It is like an academy — with five or six players who dream of playing at the top level in Europe, and following in Thomas’ footsteps.”

Alcobendas were unbeaten in their last five games and sitting 18th in their division when football stopped last month. Banos says that Partey was regularly around the club offering advice to the younger players.

atletico-partey-thomas-arsenal-united

“Thomas comes into the dressing room on the day of the games and talks to the players,” he says. “He is very open, gives advice to the youngsters. He is very serious and committed to what it takes to be a professional player. He knows what it takes to come from his country, to succeed in Europe in professional football, and is 100 per cent dedicated to that. But he is also a super open and normal guy.”

Ghanaian midfielder Stephen Buer, Ivory Coast midfielder Adama Fofana and Guinea born centre-forward Moussa Camara all now part of the Alcobendas squad, learning their trade alongside local players with experience of that level of semi-pro Spanish football.

“They are all players with great technical talent, but it is always difficult to make it to the very top,” Santaelena says. “We coaches are there to add the tactical knowledge that they need. Thomas acts as a role model for them, as well as co-owner of the club. They can see that if they follow his example, show that same humility, work hard and learn every day, they have a chance.”


Partey’s own future is now a big talking point. Manchester United and Manchester City have been regularly mentioned through the last couple of years, while most recently Arsenal have been most closely linked — especially when his father appeared to confirm talks with the Gunners hierarchy during an interview with a radio station in Ghana last week.

The player’s advisors deny any such advanced negotiations but there are contributing factors for all the noise. Thomas’ last contract with Atletico was signed in March 2018, runs until June 2023, and contains a €50 million release clause.

Since then he has seen peers like Saul, Koke and Jan Oblak sign new deals on significantly higher wages, while others such as Lucas Hernandez and Antoine Griezmann have ended up moving to other clubs on better contracts. Thomas’ 2,859 minutes of playing time this season put him third among all Atletico players, but his reported €2 million-a-year post-tax earnings place him 16th on the club’s salary scale.

Santaelena maintains that Partey’s contribution has not always been valued sufficiently around Atletico, perhaps due to his low-profile off-pitch demeanour.

“Thomas has that humility and character, a bit different than some other players who are more direct, and talk more,” Santaelena says. “Maybe also the language was an issue, although he learned Spanish quickly. Others like Saul have become more of a ‘reference player’ for the Atletico family. It has only been more recently, maybe, when the fans have realised that Thomas is also one of the team’s most important players. El Cholo also now sees him as one of the key players in the team.”

Whenever asked about his future in public, Partey remains as on-message as all of Simeone’s players tend to be, while generally keeping all options open. “Playing in England is the dream of every footballer,” he told CNN in February. “Everybody wants to try different teams to see what would happen. You never know where you will end up, I always say that.”

The speculation is unlikely to go away any time soon, given his performances in big games for Atletico this season have made that €50 million release clause look decent value. This week Paris Saint-Germain were added to the list of suitors by the Spanish press, for whenever the next transfer window does open.

“That will depend on different factors,” Santaelena says when asked if he sees Partey staying long term at the Wanda Metropolitano. “For me, Thomas is a player who will do very well wherever he plays. If he stays at Atletico Madrid, as a fan of the club I will be delighted. He is just coming into his peak years — 27 to 30. But there will be other teams interested in him, as he has shown tremendous quality. And in the end it will depend on whether a financial agreement is reached with Atletico Madrid, or with another team who want his services. If Atletico are not clever on this, other teams will fight for Thomas.”

The current uncertainty over finances throughout La Liga is also a relevant issue, with Atletico among the many Spanish clubs to quickly agree pay cuts with their players during the current stoppage due to COVID-19. Banos adds that Thomas really “appreciates” the help received in getting where he is today, but as a professional he can only measure how much he is wanted by the contract offers he receives.

“He loves Atletico a lot, as he really appreciates what they have done for him,” Banos says. “But he knows he is someone who has the level to play for any club, in any league. And he is a professional and wants to be at a team which shows that they want him and will fight for him. In today’s football, that is shown by the offer of a good contract. If clubs want to have great players, that is what they must do.”

Atletico’s hierarchy lost no time when they had the chance to sign Partey for nothing back in 2011. That those who know him best both speak of a need for Atletico to “fight” to keep him looks telling. The board will need to look sharp again if they are not to lose a key player, just as he has finally found his place in the team.

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The Telegraph

Friday May 1 2020

Football Nerd

Jadon Sancho is confounding the data - is the hype justified?

694F6D30AAA1022BD17A746113A606DC.png

By Daniel Zeqiri

Jadon Sancho at Borussia Dortmund

Jadon Sancho could be the next big money transfer CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES

Through football's coronavirus hiatus, we are committed to providing a weekly newsletter of facts, analysis and retrospectives. If there is a topic you want us to cover please email [email protected]. Above all, stay safe.

 
 

When a depressed and illiquid transfer market eventually opens, it might take one high-profile domino to fall to spark movement and establish new price points. That player could be Jadon Sancho.

The 20-year-old has been linked with Manchester United and Chelsea, and will surely attract at least a second look from Real Madrid and Barcelona, after an exceptional 2019-20 campaign with Borussia Dortmund.

Sancho racked up more goals and assists than any player in the Bundesliga before German football's suspension due to the coronavirus pandemic - 29 goal contributions in the league alone.

That tally was built on a significant statistical overperformance, however. Sancho's 'expected goals' and 'expected assists' combined amounted to 14.04, meaning the England forward contributed to 15 more goals than the data suggests he should have on average.

Sancho has scored 14 league goals from a season-long expected goals total of 7.63, and provided 15 assists from an expected assists total of 6.41. Thorgan Hazard and Timo Werner are the league's other notable overperformers, but only by a modest 5.8 and 5.6 goals respectively.

So is Sancho riding the wave of an incredibly fortunate hot streak, one that should sound a note of caution to potential suitors? The stock response to a player outstripping his underlying metrics is to predict a regression to the mean. Sancho could well struggle to maintain his current rate of production.

 
age mistmatches graph

 

However, that does not necessarily mean his quality and potential should be doubted. The fact that Sancho is in the top 10 most productive attackers in the Bundesliga - even when based on expected goals and assists - at the age of 20, is indicative of a stratospheric career trajectory.

Furthermore, none of Sancho's 14 league goals this season have come from outside the box. His highlight reel is not a collection of Dimitri Payet-esque long-distance (and therefore long odds) strikes. Sancho might just be developing into a world-class finisher who consistently betters his expected goals numbers, just as elite goalscorers such as Lionel Messi and Harry Kane have over several seasons.

Dortmund are also coached by Lucien Favre, whose teams have a history of freakish attacking efficiency and 'cheating' their underlying numbers. In 2016-17, Favre's Nice finished third in France's Ligue 1 despite an expected goals difference that put them 15th.

When Favre coached Borussia Monchengladbach, they outperformed expected goals in three consecutive league seasons. Five of the top eight attacking overperformers in the Bundesliga this season play for Dortmund: Sancho, Hazard, Marco Reus, Achraf Hakimi and Erling Haaland. All have a positive difference between actual goals and assists and their expected numbers.

There is more than blind luck behind Sancho's output then, and some positive statistical variance should not deter buyers from pursuing one of the best young players in the world.

 
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