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The numbers are clear – Chelsea missing out on Europe would be perfect for Xabi Alonso https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7297567/2026/05/22/Chelsea-xabi-alonso-europe-analysis/ As the final weekend of the Premier League season approaches, Chelsea are dealing in degrees of consolation. Will it be qualification for the Europa League, another Conference League campaign, or no European football at all next season? Champions League football is gone, but thanks to Tuesday’s win over Tottenham, a bottom-half finish in the Premier League can be ruled out too, barring a huge goal difference swing with Newcastle, Everton or Fulham. The tussle Chelsea now find themselves in is with Brighton and Hove Albion, Brentford and Sunday’s opponents, Sunderland, with several potential outcomes in play: If Chelsea win they finish no lower than eighth (Conference League qualification), but will jump to seventh (Europa League qualification) if Brighton fail to beat Manchester United If Chelsea draw they finish eighth if Brentford fail to beat Liverpool, but they fall to ninth (no European football) if Brentford win If Chelsea lose they fall to ninth below Sunderland regardless of what else happens, and could fall to 10th depending on Brentford’s result According to Opta’s supercomputer, Chelsea’s likeliest finishing position is eighth (39.7 per cent), though they still have a chance of seventh (27.4 per cent). But which outcome should incoming manager Xabi Alonso be rooting for? My colleague Simon Johnson has already done a good job of analysing the pros and cons of Chelsea being in Europe in 2026-27. The data from recent history is very clear: having no continental commitments to clutter his midweeks would be a huge benefit to Alonso next term. Since the start of 2015-16, there have been six instances of traditional ‘Big Six’ clubs (yes, this framing could look ludicrous if Tottenham are relegated this weekend, but in terms of financial resources and squad strength, it remains the best form of comparison to Chelsea) falling out of European competition entirely. It has happened to Chelsea twice and once apiece to Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs. The two Chelsea instances are 2016-17 and 2023-24, which immediately followed their two worst finishes of the Premier League era (10th in 2015-16 and 12th in 2022-23). Antonio Conte won the title in emphatic fashion in 2016-17, racking up 93 points. Mauricio Pochettino missed out on Champions League qualification in 2023-24 and left the following summer, but he still improved the team by six places and 19 points. Conte won the Premier League in 2016-17, when Chelsea were not in EuropeMichael Regan/Getty Images Liverpool jumped from eighth to fourth without European competition in Jurgen Klopp’s first full season as manager in 2016-17. Arsenal jumped from eighth to fifth without European competition under Mikel Arteta in 2021-22. Tottenham did the same under Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24. Manchester United have made the most of a lack of continental distractions this season and sit third under Michael Carrick, 12 places higher than they finished in 2024-25. In all of those six instances, the clubs involved made significant and often huge jumps in both Premier League position and points the following year. On average, the gain for a ‘Big Six’ club in a season without any form of European football is six spots in the table and 19.7 points. The sporting advantages of a season out of continental competition are well established. A more forgiving schedule means less travel, more recovery, and more time to train. But the fact that these seasons tend to follow an annus horribilis also make them the perfect scenario for an incoming coach. Player and supporter morale is generally at its nadir and, on as well as off the pitch, there tends to be plenty of low-hanging fruit to pick that drives immediate improvement — improvement for which the new man in the dugout gets the bulk of the credit. But what if the likeliest outcome happens and Chelsea finish eighth, securing a return to the Conference League? Because of the competition’s relative youth there have only been two instances when ‘Big Six’ clubs have dropped into the Conference League: Tottenham in 2021-22 and Chelsea in 2024-25. Both were still able to meaningfully improve their Premier League position and points tally to secure a Champions League spot: Spurs jumped from seventh to fourth under Conte, while Chelsea rose from sixth to fourth under Maresca. It is easy to understand why. The standard of the Conference League is not high enough to significantly stress a ‘Big Six’ squad or rise up the priority list until the very late stages. Chelsea won the tournament despite not playing anything approaching their strongest XI until the final against Real Betis. Wholesale rotation from weekend to midweek is a viable policy, meaning that, for your Premier League starters, the situation is barely any different from a season out of Europe entirely. This would appear to be a very manageable situation for Alonso if it comes to pass. Europa League participation is a slightly less straightforward case. There have been eight instances of ‘Big Six’ clubs dropping from the Champions League into Europe’s second-tier club competition since the start of 2015-16, yielding mixed Premier League results. Chelsea improved from fifth to third under Maurizio Sarri in 2018-19, while finishing as Europa League winners. Arsenal dropped from fifth to sixth in Arsene Wenger’s final season in 2017-18. United did the same in 2016-17 under Jose Mourinho despite earning three more points than the year before, but also won the Europa League. United then jumped from sixth to third under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2019-20 despite not increasing their points tally. They made the same position leap while winning 17 more points under Erik Ten Hag in 2022-23, but then came the Ruben Amorim exception: a catastrophic drop from eighth to 15th in 2024-25, compounded by Europa League final defeat to Spurs. Sarri won the Europa League in 2019Shaun Botterill/Getty Images Tottenham actually fell from sixth to seventh in the Premier League in their season with Europa League football in 2020-21, and Mourinho paid for it with his job the week before the Carabao Cup final. Liverpool jumped from fifth to third under Klopp in 2023-24, improving by 15 points. From the evidence above, it is at least very possible to balance Europa League football with a successful Champions League qualification push, and in some cases even end up with a European trophy to lift at the end of it. Chelsea’s recent history carries no small pressure for Alonso here: they have only competed in the Europa League (in its modern incarnation) twice, in 2012-13 and 2018-19, and won the tournament both times. Alonso will surely back himself to succeed at Stamford Bridge next season, regardless of what happens at the Stadium of Light on Sunday, and the Europa League or Conference League could give him a solid chance of ending his first campaign as Chelsea manager with silverware. But a year out of Europe entirely could be a golden opportunity for him. Liam Twomey Liam is a Staff Writer for The Athletic, covering Chelsea. He previously worked for Goal covering the Premier League before becoming the Chelsea correspondent for ESPN in 2015, witnessing the unravelling of Jose Mourinho, the rise and fall of Antonio Conte, the brilliance of Eden Hazard and the madness of Diego Costa. He has also contributed to The Independent and ITV Sport.

there is no way city will pay 100+ million for fernandez.

💣💥🗯Mr.Argentina Source❗️❗️

He looks to play all across the left side of the pitch whilst also often tucking into midfield. I’m not sure how he’d fare purely as a 6 in the PL sure to his really small size but in the current Cucu role or as a LWB where he gets up and down the pitch I think he’s perfect. Will never be as good defensively as Cucu but he’s a whole different level in terms or dribbling, ball retention, and most importantly passing.

Does he play on the left or as a 6? I'm happy to see him come in too and think he's a rare Strasbourg signing we got perfectly right

tbh, I dont believe that we can demand a value above 100M, specially without ucl

This source is a big-time grifter

If we sell him we surely do so for much more than that. At least getting back what we paid for him. If Elliot Anderson is rated at £100m than Enzo is easily worth more.

If they offer us €100 million, he can go, to be honest — but it depends on the player we bring in to replace him

Criminal if we do that. Selling arguably our best player this season to a team we’re trying to compete with just can’t happen. These owners trying to get the Chelsea supporters back on their side by correcting mistakes they’ve made. Selling our vice captain and one of our best players to a direct rival will piss everyone off even more. Unless there’s some sort of deal where Foden for example comes the other way since they have Cherki as their new starboy.

enzo is talked now to join city

Barco basicslly confirmed now. And I see lots of Chelsea fans on Twitter who clearly haven’t watched him and are moaning. But I am super confident that he will be a great signing. Perfect technical ability, great passer, whilst also being very combative and versatile. I think for sure he and Hato will rotate in the left sided combo role. Just a smart signing exactly Jorrel was.

Chelsea https://thedailybriefing.io/i/198711646/Chelsea Former Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca has already been speaking with Marc Cucurella about the Spanish left-back joining him at Manchester City. (Simon Phillips) Although Cucurella wants to leave, it is thought that new manager Xabi Alonso really wants to keep him and will push to persuade him. (Simon Phillips) Chelsea could also be serious contenders for Jarrod Bowen, with the England international looking to stay in London even if he’s set to leave West Ham if they get relegated. (Simon Phillips) Chelsea look ready to rival Arsenal for the transfer of in-form Bournemouth wonderkid Eli Junior Kroupi, though the Cherries insist he’s not for sale. (Daily Mail) Chelsea striker Liam Delap is being tipped for a move to Everton as he’s unlikely to survive under incoming new manager Xabi Alonso. (Football Insider)

He said good player 🙂 Among the ones you listed, I would keep: Gusto Gittens(bad momentum to sell, either loan or keep) Jackson Santos maybe, but I am not impressed by him

Even when he was fit he looked in way over his head. He was giving Mudryk vibes in that he looked unbelievable taking on players and beating them for fun at their previous clubs and then as soon as they stepped up to the PL they seemed terrified and couldn’t do anything.

Gittens was pretty much injured all season I don’t understand how any attacker in our system last year was supposed to be evaluated when everything we did last year was so disjointed. We have no wing play all season even Estevao who looked really good at the beginning of the season couldn’t get a look because we try to play everything through the middle. I feel like with Alonso style that gives more opportunities to some of the wingers to show more than they did all season.

Depending on the formation I think Gusto and Andrey Santos could play big roles in Alonso’s team as squad players but the rest definitely need to all go. Our problem of course will be that unless our owners/board are willing to rip the bandaid off and take massive losses just to give us a clean slate it’s going to be a massive pain in the ass to find buyers willing to spend close to what we paid for Garnacho, Gittens, etc. Garnacho is probably still a big enough “name” that he will likely be sought after by European clubs. Gittens though feels impossible to shift out unless it’s a loan since the price we paid for him was criminal AND because he showed nothing all season. Can see maybe some bottom half PL team taking him on loan and that’s probably his level.

Jorgenson, Malo Gusto, Tosin, Badiashile, Disasi, Andrey Santos, Garnacho, Gittens, Pedro Neto, Tyrique George, Jackson, Delap Take your pick. All of them can go in my book

At least we will need to sell one good player

Yeah, I will definitely say that it’s kind of awkward timing for Enzo to try to force his way to Madrid. They’ve got several top quality players in every position he plays in AND they will have a manager who always prioritizes physicality and energy over all else. I suppose in a much less physically demanding La Liga you could very well play him deeper in midfield unlike here in the PL so maybe that’s where he plays? Because in those advanced midfield positions where he has been playing for us they’ve got Bellingham and Velverde who are definite Mou players and Guler who is really developing well. If they move Camavinga and/or Tchouameni then he obviously has a place.

This is the Havertz-Jorginho and Madueke conversation from previous windows all over again. Makes no sense to sell one of our few good players and set ourselves back. Add Barco and keep Enzo. Find the money by selling the bomb squad and clearing out the average players that have piled up at the club.

Exactly. And he clearly wants off. Which he did the same thing with Benfica after all of 2 minutes there too after the WC. So fuck him. Quite frankly, for me, he won’t be missed that much. Yes the goals and assists he’s got this last 12-18 months have definitely made him look a good player and very important to the team but he’s effectively played as a 10/inside 8 off the left sometimes. Palmer had better stats and performances under Poch playing centrally. He was meant to be an all round midfielder, dictating games, getting round the pitch, whatever else like did at Benfica (well like he apparently did!). Time and time again he hasn’t shown this when playing as a 6 or 8. Would rather see Palmer more centrally in that role Enzo has been utilised in, might get him back to his best alongside this prolonged summer break he’ll get. For £106million to get 12-18 months of decent performances, I don’t see the uproar, we’ve lost a lot better calibre of players to Madrid in Robben, Hazard & Rudiger. Good luck to him also, Mourinho will undoubtedly prefer the likes of Valverde, Camavinga, Tchouameni & Bellingham due to their physical as well as technical attributes so wouldn’t be surprised if its a move that doesn’t necessarily work from the off. Jose hasn’t changed either he still values the physical qualities in his players.

I feel like the club hierarchy already have it clearly in their heads that they’re going to sell him and have since the moment he made the statements about loving Madrid and wanting to live there. The fact that they quickly made the very cheeky announcement that Caicedo has signed a new and improved deal was them sending a message. That Enzo’s agent has been talking about improved terms for months and still hasn’t gotten a sufficient offer says it all. They know they NEED some BIG sales this summer and will pick a couple of our biggest players to fund incomings. So they’ll pick Enzo and Cucu who yes, are two of our best players but are also at the same time the most “replaceable” in their eyes. All I’ll say is that you better let Xabi hand pick his Enzo replacement and don’t have the sporting directors force another “data led” signing on him. Even in our current situation I’d have to think getting a call from Xabi Alonso would be very persuasive to a young CM so I pray we aim very high.

Yes I'm the same boat, if the club is serious on turning things with Alonso we can't sell Enzo. He still has some years left so keep him. Sadly with Cucu I would like to keep him but I think he get less time so it's best to sell him.