Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 28,713]

Just now, Mário César said:

It's too early to give opinions on the future of the players The club hasn't even been judged yet There's no point wasting time on this

none will come here anyway I wager

but is nice to lay down preditictions overall

it hardly takes a tonne of research

 

[ZAPHOD2319 4,466]

What is realistic is snatching up Bob. He looks like he could be special. Injured, but he has looked good.

[Vesper 28,713]

31 minutes ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

What is realistic is snatching up Bob. He looks like he could be special. Injured, but he has looked good.

Foot:
left

the last thing we need is another left footed right winger

[Vesper 28,713]

22 hours ago, Vesper said:

Chelsea ready tempting offer to sign Lautaro Martinez

https://football-talk.co.uk/207473/Chelsea-ready-tempting-offer-to-sign-lautaro-martinez/

 

Chelsea remain keen on landing a striker in 2025 and although Victor Osimhen is their primary option, an alternative to the Nigerian has emerged in the shape of Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez.

In their bid to land the Argentine international, the Blues are ready to table a tempting offer to Inter Milan. As per Football Transfers, Chelsea are willing to include Benoit Badiashile, Carney Chukwuemeka and Mykhaylo Mudryk in a swap deal for the South American hitman.

Martinez recently penned a deal at the Giuseppe Meazza until 2028 and is valued at £93 million by Inter Milan, the report adds, and Chelsea are prepared to sweeten the deal by offering a up to three players – whose collective valuation stands at £110 million.

A transfer for Martinez is still in its formative stages but it will not come as a surprise if the west Londoners formally show an interest in his signing next summer.

Martinez better suited for Chelsea than Osimhen

Lautaro Martinez is the captain at Inter Milan but having enjoyed a successful career in Italy, he could be open to the prospect of pursuing a new challenge, especially in the Premier League.

The World Cup winner would perhaps be a better option for Chelsea as compared to Osimhen. Not only is he a more capable player in areas outside the box, but his conduct off the field is also better than that of the Napoli marksman, who is now on loan at Galatasaray.

Osimhen has caused controversy in the past by raising questions over his continuity in Naples while the issue regarding his future in the recently concluded transfer window was also not handled as professionally as it should have been by him and his entourage.

On the contrary, Martinez has maintained a low profile amid rumours linking him with a move away from the San Siro, and his dedication to Inter Milan has seen him get rewarded with the captain’s armband.

He would certainly be an exciting signing for Chelsea but the Blues’ attempt of signing him in a swap deal might be completely rebuked, especially given that would be offering players who have severely underperformed for them in recent years.

Lautaro no longer has a £93m release clause

he renewed in August until 2029 and volunatarily had the release clause removed

there is no chance he is leaving Inter for some time

he turns 30yo in summer 2027

so very unlikely we would even mover for him unless it was next summer (and at 28yo he will be past our age boundary) and that will be almost impossible, especially as he is the Inter captain now

the main teams I can see moving for him are Real and Barca, whichever one doesnt get Håland down the road, or maybe PSG (I canot see him all that enthused about moving to PSG) or maybe, maybe Arsenal (Gyökeres seems a better fit for them overall) or Pool

[Vesper 28,713]

 My predictions for Arsenal's summer 2025 3 main buys

CF    

Viktor Gyökeres

LW (one of the following)

Florian Wirtz 
Jamal Musiala  
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Rafael Leão

less likely

Xavi Simons
Nico Williams
Bradley Barcola 

CMF/DMF

Martín Zubimendi

or

maybe (if either are available)

Gavi or Pedri  

[Vesper 28,713]

Jhon Durán destroys xG

https://www.scoutednotebook.com/p/jhon-duran-destroys-xg-amad-does

Sharpshooters

Some players laugh in the face of Expected Goals.

Full disclosure: I think the metric is extremely useful and refer to it often. But I also understand that technique and player quality can make a mockery of it in certain individual cases. You should not dismiss it. You should not live and die by it. Use it to spot anomalies and patterns and then investigate the ‘why?’.

For example, if I spotted a player racking up incredible xG per 90 or posting gaping xG-Goal difference tallies, I would drop both names in the SCOUTED chat to see if the analysts have seen them before (the answer is usually yes). Then, the reasons why each outlier might exist would dictate whether I decide to track them further and watch more games.

With that out of the way…

Fucking hell, Jhon.

 

As per Stathead, Jhon Durán has averages more Non-Penalty Goals per 90 than any player in Premier League history with at least 450 minutes played. Yes, even more than Erling Haaland.

Of course, the sample size is very small - he has only started three PL games in his career - but this is your reminder that he is only 20 years old.

I repeat: Fucking hell, Jhon.

 

One of this reasons for this incredible scoring rate is a catalogue of xG-busting goals. Since the start of 2017/18 - the season that Stathead’s xG coverage begins - Durán ranks first for Non-Penalty Goals minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90; he is outperforming his NPxG tally by 0.6 per 90 minutes, more than doubling his expected output. In total, Durán has scored 8 NPG from 3.6 NPxG.

There are two other metrics that highlight his anomalous goal-scoring: Non-Penalty xG per Shot (NPxG/Shot) and Average Shot Distance.

Edinson Cavani ranks first for for NPxG/Shot among all Premier League players with at least 30 shots since the 2017/18 season. El Matador averaged 0.22 NPxG per effort, a testament to the world-class movement that defined his career. Haaland ranks joint-second with 0.20 NPxG/Shot, alongside Ramus Højlund and Taiwo Awoniyi.

Just quickly, I want to use this moment to introduce an example of the nuance needed to interrogate these outliers - and this can be done before even watching the player. Just as lots of shots does not always result in lots of goal, high NPxG/Shot on its own does not make a world-class striker.

Haaland averages 3.9 shots per 90. Consider that alongside 0.20 NPxG/Shot and it’s easy to see why he broke Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goals scored after the opening four games of a Premier League season. Haaland has quality and quantity.

Cavani averaged 2.2 during his time at United, Awoniyi averages 2.1 and Højlund is averaging 1.6;. So, despite the fact Højlund is taking good shots, he is getting fewer opportunities to do so. That’s why missing these chances became so poignant.

While Haaland can afford to miss a chance safe in the knowledge at least two more will be on the way, Højlund was often only presented with one. Whether this lower shot volume is as a result of player or team quality is another question for another time.

I can feel this is getting quite heavy so please do let me know if it’s too much for a Monday Night. Alternatively, if you want to discuss any of it further - reach out!

So, although all four players take “good” shots, they don’t all get lots of them.

Back to Durán.

The Colombian averages 0.10 NPxG/Shot, ranking him 91st in this list. This is further highlighted by Haaland’s average shot distance of 12.4 yards (pretty much the penalty spot) compared to Durán’s 16.7 yards - similar to Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.

So, how is he top of the Premier League’s all-time Non-Penalty Goal-scoring charts?

Well, to speak quickly on volume, he’s taking 4.4 shots every 90 minutes he spends on the pitch. He’s buying plenty of lottery tickets.

And while his shot locations are improving, his shot placement can be fantastic. The secret to this? Ball-striking.

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Striking gold: Why every team needs a 'Project Nine'

Read full story

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This attribute is often highlighted and discussed at SCOUTED. It features in Stephen’s excellent piece about the Project Nine. Conveniently, Durán was subject to transfer interest of that exact nature in the summer as Chelsea and West Ham battled for his signature.

A metric used to help unearth these ball-striking phenoms is Non-Penalty Expected Goals On Target (NPxGOT) minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals. Opta coined the difference between their xG and xGOT values as Shooting Goals Added (SGA). You can read more about it here. xGOT is always used to calculate ‘Goals Prevented’ for goalkeepers.

Essentially, this measures how likely a shot will go in based on where it is when it crosses the line, rather than the location it is taken from. Pre-shot vs. Post-shot.

“Stats Perform’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model is calculated using a logistic regression model. It is built on hundreds of thousands of on-target shots from our historical Opta data and includes both the original xG of the shot and the goalmouth location of where the shot ended up.

“The coordinates are taken at the point at which the shot was expected to cross the goal line to determine the goalmouth location of the shot and the interaction effect between the visible angle of the goal and the point that it crossed the line.”

There are limitations - for example, perhaps shot placement matters less the closer to the goal you are? - but this can help identify those killer finishers.

Another tangent. Feel free to skip ahead.

Callum Hudson-Odoi is an excellent case study. Since 2018/19, he is at 4+ SGA in the league due to, for the most part, his ability to finesse the ball into the far corner with his eyes closed.

This has been Hudson-Odoi’s go-to finish ever since we started watching him in 2017 - and he can do it from both angles. So, while the average player may struggle to execute these low-xG efforts, or at least be better-served finding a pass, Hudson-Odoi has trained it as an automatism.

For him, in this position, shooting is the best option.

I was surprised to learn that Durán’s NPxG total (11.66) is almost-identical to his NPxG total (10.53) during his Premier League career. However, due to the small sample size, this is skewed by some extremely speculative shooting during 2022/23, even by his standard.

Looking at the past two seasons, Durán is adding 0.10 SGA per 90. Of his eight Premier League goals, seven have a positive SGA. This is what excites me the most. This is what I will keep a closer eye on.

I wish I could continue but I know you are all waiting for the stats. I am also in danger of spending a disproportionately amount of time on an extremely small set of data.

TL;DR: Durán’s ability to kick the ball really nicely lots of times at the goal means he will continue score.

He won’t maintain the historic rate he is currently operating at, but there is enough quality and quantity to suggest he can keep up with the best.

 

[Vesper 28,713]

Chelsea considering 2025 move for 17-year-old Portuguese full-back prodigy 

https://thehardtackle.com/transfer-news/2024/09/20/Chelsea-eyeing-up-a-move-for-geovany-quenda/

Chelsea are eyeing a move for Sporting CP’s emerging teenager Geovany Quenda in 2025 as they begin the search for a new right-back. 

According to TBR, Chelsea are interested in Sporting CP teenager Geovany Quenda ahead of 2025, as a move for the 17-year-old could be on the cards. The Blues are set to begin the search for a new right-back in the future and could have links with some notable stars in the market. 

Chelsea are in Geovany Quenda chase

Sporting CP might have their next breakout star emerging from nowhere as Geovany Quenda continues to impress Ruben Amorim this season. Before the start of the current campaign, the 17-year-old Portuguese full-back prodigy had never played for the club and now is starting every game for them. 

He reportedly signed a new contract with Sporting CP after a successful progression to the first team and after some impressive showings for the youth sides last season. Amorim has not hesitated in making Quenda a crucial part of his plans in an instant, as the teenager started all six of the club’s games this season, including the opening victory over LOSC Lille in the Champions League.

He reportedly has a €100 million release clause, and under current circumstances, Sporting are unlikely to sell him for pocket change. Moreover, he has age on his side, and Amorim considers him to be very important on first viewing, meaning the likes of Chelsea may have no chance as they are keen on the 17-year-old Portuguese full-back prodigy. 

Chelsea could consider Quenda a part of their shortlist of new right-backs ahead of 2025 and feel the Sporting CP star has the quality to play for them. There are complications in being the teenager considering his reported release clause, as they might be better off targetting other names on their list, such as Michael Kayode, among others. 

Chelsea are keen on a new right-back

Kayode and Quenda aside, Chelsea also have Freiburg’s Kiliann Sildillia on their list, while there are some big names like Jules Kounde and Jeremie Frimpong in their sights. There’s a clear need to strengthen that side of the pitch, as the constant injury issues to skipper Reece James are not helping them plan for the present and future. 

Moreover, James’ deputy Malo Gusto has proved inconsistent with his displays, while there are significant doubts about Axel Disasi’s long-term prospects at the club. Hence, should Enzo Maresca bring some success this season and show promising signs, he could be allowed to pick a top right-back option to strengthen the squad. 

[Thor 2,392]

I was told Duran was a donkey here and sucks. 
 

And why is he any good if he can’t start for Villa…

 

Yeah. Right. 

[Reddish-Blue 2,341]

3 hours ago, Thor said:

I was told Duran was a donkey here and sucks. 
 

And why is he any good if he can’t start for Villa…

He seems to be a better ball striker than Jackson, that's for sure! 

 

[Magic Lamps 11,653]

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. The sample size in Duran is still small and this season he has shown nothing we did not already know. He remains a powerful, energetic young striker that is still raw but with great potential. He is a different profile to Jackson but the latter has been leading our line on his own for quite some time while Duran has mostly come on fully rested vs tired legs. His goals look great, many of them Jackson could never score but he has his fair share of misses plus I am yet to see the same industriousness. 
the outrage was also bc many rightly felt we need an experienced striker not another prospect plus a ridiculous fee was quoted by some outlets 

[Vesper 28,713]

Mudryk’s full focus remains on Chelsea

https://thedailybriefing.io/i/149090326/mudryks-full-focus-remains-on-Chelsea

There's absolutely zero truth in the story that Mykhailo Mudryk wants to leave Chelsea.

Mudryk has not made any decision to leave, and there are no talks taking place with any club.

Full focus remains on Chelsea and on doing his best under Maresca, while Chelsea also hope to see him at his best soon.

So there's really nothing in this ‘story’ - I don't even know where this is coming from to be fair.

[Vesper 28,713]

Ben Chilwell pushing for Chelsea exit amid Crystal Palace links

https://thehardtackle.com/transfer-news/2024/09/21/ben-chilwell-pushing-for-Chelsea-exit-amid-crystal-palace-links/

Crystal Palace has been handed a major boost in their pursuit of Ben Chilwell’s services as he is pushing to leave Chelsea.

According to a report from Fichajes, Crystal Palace are keen on acquiring the services of Ben Chilwell as they look to reinforce their backline. The Eagles have received a boost in their pursuit of the English international as he seems keen on parting ways with Chelsea when the transfer window reopens in January.

Chilwell made a name for himself at Leicester City. He then secured a big-money move to Chelsea in the summer of 2020. The Blues forked out a massive fee of around €50 million to sign the English full-back. He was an integral part of their first team in the initial years and played a big part in their success.

The 27-year-old left-back was their vice-captain last season and he even led the team in quite a few fixtures in the absence of Reece James. But, even he struggled to stay fit and could only manage 21 appearances throughout the seasons.

Chilwell is no longer an important part of the Chelsea

While he still has close to three years left on his deal at Stamford Bridge, the English defender is no longer considered to be an important part of their setup. The arrival of Enzo Maresca and his recent injury struggles have seen him go down the pecking order.

The Blues were looking to get him off their books in the summer. While quite a few clubs were linked with him, Chelsea couldn’t strike a deal for his departure. Even after the end of the transfer window in England, the London club were pushing to get him off their books.

Ben Chilwell could join Crystal Palace in January

Unfortunately, they couldn’t find him a new club. The 27-year-old is well aware of the fact that he might not get any game time at Chelsea. As a result, he seeks a new challenge away from the club and Crystal Palace have emerged as a potential destination for the English defender.

The Eagles want to reinforce their backline and they could get reliable full-back in Chilwell who can contribute in both ends of the pitch. His experience and his abilities could significantly bolster the Palace squad. With the player keen on leaving Chelsea in January, Oliver Glasner’s team have a massive advantage in the race to his signature.

 

 

Palace Fullbacks atm

3	Tyrick Mitchell Left-Back	Sep 1, 1999 (25)		€25.00m
12	Daniel Muñoz Right-Back	May 26, 1996 (28)		€23.00m
17	Nathaniel Clyne Right-Back	Apr 5, 1991 (33)		€1.50m
2	Joel Ward  Right-Back	Oct 29, 1989 (34)		€1.00m

Edited September 20 by Vesper

[Vesper 28,713]

 

[Vesper 28,713]

delete, wrong poster replied to

Edited September 20 by Vesper

[Vesper 28,713]

18 hours ago, Thor said:

And why is he any good if he can’t start for Villa…

Because he is behind Ollie Watkins, a CF who only has 7 (soon 6 I wager) actual true CFs valued more than him atm on the planet:     

Erling Haaland 
Lautaro Martínez 
Victor Osimhen 
Harry Kane 
Julián Alvarez 
Alexander Isak 
Darwin Núñez  (surely soon lowered in valuation I wager, as he doesnt start anymore, and is not producing, he has zero goals, zero assists this season)

If Watkins were here at Chels he would instantly be our starting CF

Watkins produced 40 total goals last season

27 goals, 13 assists

this season 4 (2 + 2) in around 3 and a half full games worth of minutes

plus he is a pressing machine

[Vesper 28,713]

Inter Milan keen on Ben Chilwell

Inter Milan are interested in acquiring the services of Chelsea outcast Ben Chilwell when the window reopens in January.

https://thehardtackle.com/transfer-news/2024/09/22/inter-milan-keen-on-ben-chilwell/#google_vignette

According to a report from Interlive, Inter Milan could look at Ben Chilwell as an option to reinforce their backline during the winter transfer window. While they are well covered at left-back, Simone Inzahgi’s team could look at the Chelsea outcast depending on how things unfold over the next months.

Chilwell came up the ranks and made a name for himself while playing for Leicester City. His consistent performances for the Foxes resulted in a move to Chelsea in the summer of 2020. The Blues forked out around €50 million to acquire his services. However, the report states that he could be available for €25 million in January.

[LAM09 6,736]

24 minutes ago, Vesper said:

Inter Milan keen on Ben Chilwell

Inter Milan are interested in acquiring the services of Chelsea outcast Ben Chilwell when the window reopens in January.

https://thehardtackle.com/transfer-news/2024/09/22/inter-milan-keen-on-ben-chilwell/#google_vignette

According to a report from Interlive, Inter Milan could look at Ben Chilwell as an option to reinforce their backline during the winter transfer window. While they are well covered at left-back, Simone Inzahgi’s team could look at the Chelsea outcast depending on how things unfold over the next months.

Chilwell came up the ranks and made a name for himself while playing for Leicester City. His consistent performances for the Foxes resulted in a move to Chelsea in the summer of 2020. The Blues forked out around €50 million to acquire his services. However, the report states that he could be available for €25 million in January.

They sure do love their FB/WB's over there.

[Thor 2,392]

So glad we didn't get Duran. Clearly unproven and guys - he doesn't even start for his team! Can't be good enough!