UCL qualification - permutations and combinations

[BlueLion. 21,491]

Chelsea face a tense tussle with FC Porto on Matchday Six as qualification from UEFA Champions League Group G remains in the balance.

Whilst the Blues were excellent in their 4-0 demolition of Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dynamo Kyiv's victory in Porto means that things remains tight in Chelsea's group with just one game remaining.

On Wednesday 9 December, the Blues host Porto whilst Maccabi travel to Ukraine.

Here are the permutations of what might happen...

• If Chelsea beat Porto, regardless of what happens in Kyiv, the Blues will progress as group winners.
• If Porto beat Chelsea and Dynamo Kyiv beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will drop into the Europa League.
• If Porto beat Chelsea but Dynamo Kyiv fail to beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place.
• If Chelsea draw with Porto and Dynamo Kyiv beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place by virtue of Porto's superior head-to-head record against the Blues and their own superior head-to-head record against the Ukrainian side.
• If Chelsea draw with Porto and Dyanmo Kyiv fail to beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place.

In short, the only way Chelsea can go out is if they lose to Porto and Dynamo Kyiv also beat Maccabi Tel Aviv. Chelsea cannot go out if they avoid defeat against the Portuguese side, but the only way they can top the group is with three points on 9 December.

[Jase 43,479]

If Chelsea draw with Porto and Dynamo Kyiv beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place by virtue of Porto's superior head-to-head record against the Blues and their own superior head-to-head record against the Ukrainian side.

You are wrong there mate. If we draw with Porto and Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then all 3 teams will have 11 points and a mini-league between the 3 (Chelsea, Porto, Dynamo Kiev) will be created to decide who qualify for the last 16. If that turns out to be the case, then Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea will go through.

The H2H rule only comes into play if 2 teams have the same number of points.

[zolayes 14,489]

Chelsea face a tense tussle with FC Porto on Matchday Six as qualification from UEFA Champions League Group G remains in the balance.

Whilst the Blues were excellent in their 4-0 demolition of Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dynamo Kyiv's victory in Porto means that things remains tight in Chelsea's group with just one game remaining.

On Wednesday 9 December, the Blues host Porto whilst Maccabi travel to Ukraine.

Here are the permutations of what might happen...

• If Chelsea beat Porto, regardless of what happens in Kyiv, the Blues will progress as group winners.
• If Porto beat Chelsea and Dynamo Kyiv beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will drop into the Europa League.
• If Porto beat Chelsea but Dynamo Kyiv fail to beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place.
• If Chelsea draw with Porto and Dynamo Kyiv beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place by virtue of Porto's superior head-to-head record against the Blues and their own superior head-to-head record against the Ukrainian side.
• If Chelsea draw with Porto and Dyanmo Kyiv fail to beat Maccabi Tel Aviv, Chelsea will go through in second place.

In short, the only way Chelsea can go out is if they lose to Porto and Dynamo Kyiv also beat Maccabi Tel Aviv. Chelsea cannot go out if they avoid defeat against the Portuguese side, but the only way they can top the group is with three points on 9 December.

Excellent ,, but to be Mathematically and Statistically correct ,,These are combinations NOT Permutations .. Pedantic I know

[CHOULO19 24,332]

Lmao People (me included) keep wrongly trying to explain it and just keep making it worse for everyone

[stroey 2,525]

I am normally an optimist but this scenario fits our horrible season so much:

Porto beating us at the Bridge with 1 goal difference, Chelsea dominating and having chance after chance but Casillas having the game of his life vs Mourinho...

[BlueLion. 21,491]

You are wrong there mate. If we draw with Porto and Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then all 3 teams will have 11 points and a mini-league between the 3 (Chelsea, Porto, Dynamo Kiev) will be created to decide who qualify for the last 16. If that turns out to be the case, then Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea will go through.

The H2H rule only comes into play if 2 teams have the same number of points.

Shit. Thankfully we'd still go through with that combination so all is well

[zolayes 14,489]

Lmao People (me included) keep wrongly trying to explain it and just keep making it worse for everyone

I just wish if the Staff are going to disagree they should at least get personal and abusive

[MefiX19 1,092]

I found this:

a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;

Bb) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;

c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;

d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;

e) if, after having applied criteria a) to d), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to d) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the two teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to l) apply;

f) superior goal difference from all group matches played;

Read more: http://m.footballseeding.com/details/champions-league-format2/

[zolayes 14,489]

Shit. Thankfully we'd still go through with that combination so all is well

Im glad at least you recognise IT ISNT a Permutation

[Henrique 9,133]

Lmao People (me included) keep wrongly trying to explain it and just keep making it worse for everyone

You are wrong there mate. If we draw with Porto and Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then all 3 teams will have 11 points and a mini-league between the 3 (Chelsea, Porto, Dynamo Kiev) will be created to decide who qualify for the last 16. If that turns out to be the case, then Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea will go through.

The H2H rule only comes into play if 2 teams have the same number of points.

Interesting, I was forgetting that only goal differences from matches between those teams are taking into consideration, so it doesn't matter if Dynamo win 1-0 or 7-0.

Not sure if thats good news, since Porto need the result. Thats going to be a pretty tough game.

[jmarlow 458]

so basically Kiev will 100% beat Maccabi so we have to win or draw to go through and Porto's only chance to go through is to beat us right?

[Jase 43,479]

Interesting, I was forgetting that only goal differences from matches between those teams are taking into consideration, so it doesn't matter if Dynamo win 1-0 or 7-0.

Yup. So, Dynamo Kiev MUST win to qualify, which they likely will. Chelsea v Porto is basically the do-or-die game.

[Rhino's Skin 972]

You are wrong there mate. If we draw with Porto and Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then all 3 teams will have 11 points and a mini-league between the 3 (Chelsea, Porto, Dynamo Kiev) will be created to decide who qualify for the last 16. If that turns out to be the case, then Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea will go through.

The H2H rule only comes into play if 2 teams have the same number of points.

does that eliminate Porto.....and then revert to h2h between us and Kiev putting us top?

[Adnane 1,101]

@Rhino's Skin, Nop, If we draw and Dynamo win, they go first, because they have the best Goal difference in the 3 teams mini league.

If we draw and Dynamo fail to win, there is only us and Porto with 11 points, Porto go first as they beat us in head to head ( 2-1 in Porto and an aventual draw in SB ).

so basically Kiev will 100% beat Maccabi so we have to win or draw to go through and Porto's only chance to go through is to beat us right?

They can qualify no matter the result against us if Kiev fail to win, which is pretty unlikely, so yeah, it's pretty fair to assume they need to win, or draw/lose and risk depending on the other game..

[didierforever 7,349]

Awesome scenario. Things just are never easy with us. But this gives us the perfect opportunity to get the top spot as Porto too need a win to qualify.

So it plays into our hands a bit.

[Johnnyeye 7,510]

I am normally an optimist but this scenario fits our horrible season so much: Porto beating us at the Bridge with 1 goal difference, Chelsea dominating and having chance after chance but Casillas having the game of his life vs Mourinho...

It´s just typical that it happens to us, i keep thinking about our game away to Porto where we were denied a penalty at the end, and if we drew we would have qualified already and also Kiev away, where we should have won, so many chances wasted and another penalty denied, if we won that match too we would have qualified by now, typical, unlucky as always this is only to add more drama to what is an already troubled season. Porto usually is reliable at home and to the job, but they farked it up big time, even a draw would have been suficcient for them to qualify and since i´m portuguese, i for one would have liked for both of us to qualify before matchday 5 started, minding we would win in Israel and Porto won or drew with Kiev, then deciding who would take top spot in the final game between us and Porto. Now it all changes, i don´t care about Porto, all i want is for Chelsea to win the farking game and qualify in 1st place, i´m not even thinking about a draw, don´t risk it, go for the kill, just to the job, win and garantee qualification, because you just know Kiev will win their match, so no bullsh*t from us please, no more excuses. I have faith in the team and manager, i think they will do what is required at home, i really hope for the sake of my heart. Cheers

on a side note, i hope that Terry and Ramires injuries aren´t too serious and they recover well, too many important games coming up.

[OhForAGreavsie 6,075]

You are wrong there mate. If we draw with Porto and Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then all 3 teams will have 11 points and a mini-league between the 3 (Chelsea, Porto, Dynamo Kiev) will be created to decide who qualify for the last 16. If that turns out to be the case, then Dynamo Kiev and Chelsea will go through.

The H2H rule only comes into play if 2 teams have the same number of points.

First I have to admit that I have not read the regulations so I'm basing this comment on my knowledge of NFL tiebreakers, which uefa's version is modelled on after all. Jason may therefore be absolutely right, and my point might be nonsense but...

In the NFL, the three-team tiebreakers are applied only untill one team advances or is eliminated. The rankings of the two remaining clubs are then reconsidered using the two-team tiebreakers. In that method a draw at The Bridge and a home win in Kiev would eliminate us, as Blue Lion originally said, since the head to head between Porto and ourselves would favour them.

Given that uefa introduced this method because they felt it was fairer, and that they borrowed it from the NFL, it must be at least possible, if not probable, that their Champions League regulations run along the same lines. Just to restate though, I'm being lazy and have not read the rules so Jay could very well be right.

[Blue-in-me-Veins 4,067]

And Porto have never won on English Soil In the Champions League..

You just know how that's gonna turn out

[Jase 43,479]

First I have to admit that I have not read the regulations so I'm basing this comment on my knowledge of NFL tiebreakers, which uefa's version is modelled on after all. Jason may therefore be absolutely right, and my point might be nonsense but...

In the NFL, the three-team tiebreakers are applied only untill one team advances or is eliminated. The rankings of the two remaining clubs are then reconsidered using the two-team tiebreakers. In that method a draw at The Bridge and a home win in Kiev would eliminate us, as Blue Lion originally said, since the head to head between Porto and ourselves would favour them.

Given that uefa introduced this method because they felt it was fairer, and that they borrowed it from the NFL, it must be at least possible, if not probable, that their Champions League regulations run along the same lines. Just to restate though, I'm being lazy and have not read the rules so Jay could very well be right.

[OhForAGreavsie 6,075]

Discussion point:

Is finishing third, and therefore dropping into the Europa League, our best hope of qualifying for next season's Champions League?