Player Focus - Romelu Lukaku

[CHOULO19 24,332]

The loan system has come under a lot of criticism, here at Chelsea; but one player that certainly made the best of his time on loan is our young striker: Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian managed, in his season at WBA, to score 17 goals and assist another 4, helping the Albions to an unexpected 8th place finish and becoming one of the highest rated young prospects in the world in the process.

Chelsea football club had always rated Lukaku very highly; they made that clear when they forked out a reported 18 million pounds back in 2011 to bring the, then, 18 year old striker to Stamford Bridge. And despite the slow start he had under AVB, the club has always shown trust in the young Belgian. But his season at WBA seemed to have earned him the international recognition he deserves. His 17 goals in the PL saw him finish 6th in the league's best scorers table and his minutes per goal ratio (117.88.) is second to none.

Already rated as one of the best strikers in the Premiere League, Lukaku has now returned to Stamford Bridge to ply his trade. Jose Mourinho has, on several occasions, called his return as good as a new signing. But what should we expect from the young striker in the upcoming season?

So, what's all the fuss about? A statistical analysis:

Most Chelsea fans think that Romelu should be a starter next season ahead of our senior strikers: Fernando Torres and Demba Ba. But do statistics back their claim? Let's have a look:

I already touched on Lukaku's incredible minutes per goal ratio, but how does it compare to Chelsea's other striker options? Lukaku scored 17 goals in 2004 mins, as compared to 8 goals in 2571 mins for Torres and 2 in 866 mins for Ba. So, Romelu scored a goal every 117.88 minutes while Fernando scored every 321.375 minutes and Ba every 433 mins. This means that had Lukaku played as much as Torres, he would have finished the season as the third best scorer in the league with 21-22 goals (had he got as much mins as RVP he would have won the golden boot!) assuming of course that he had kept the same scoring average. It is clear that Romelu's goal scoring form was much better than any of Chelsea's other options.

It is also worth noting that Lukaku proved to be a more complete striker than the other two with his abilities to finish with both feet and head while the other two had to mostly rely on their right foot:

Lukaku:

Torres:

Ba:

Moreover, Lukaku seems to have surpassed our senior strikers in terms of chance creation. The Belgian created a chance for his teammates at West Brom every 55.67 minutes as compared to a chance created every 69.49 minutes by Torres and one every 108.25 minutes by Ba.

Lukaku also proved to be the most prolific of the bunch. He boasted the, by far, best conversion rate among our current strikers with 21.5% of his shots hitting the back of the net as compared to 15.4% by Torres and a a shocking 6.9% by Damba Ba. Romelu looked to test the keeper the most out of the three with the highest shot accuracy as well. He had 79 attempts at goal, one every 25.37 minutes, at a 66% shot accuracy. On the other hand, Torres and Ba had 52 shots every 49.44 at 58%, and 29 every 29.86 at 59% respectively.

Based on the above, it is clear that Lukaku is currently our best striker in terms of final product. But at a club like Chelsea, the striker is required to do more than just score and assist. So how does he compare to Torres and Ba in the other aspects of his game?

Starting material or super sub?

Despite his impressive records in front of goal, Lukaku was mostly regarded as more of a "Super-sub" than a nailed on starter at West Brom. Steve Clark, WBA's manager, certainly felt that Lukaku can make a bigger impact off the bench rather than start the game. He was subbed on in 15 of his 35 appearances (42.9%) last season and only played the full 90 minutes 20% of the time (i.e. 7 games). To put that into perspective, Torres and Ba were only subbed on 22.2% and 21.4% of their respective total PL appearances. I tend to agree with Clark's strategy and here's why:

Despite his quite extraordinary physique and physical abilities, Lukaku still tends to struggle a lot with his hold-up play. His passing accuracy of 72%, though better than Torres' 69% (that's not saying much, to be honest), is still rather average at best. To compare, RVP, Rooney and Tevez had a passing accuracy of 80%, 83% and 84% respectively. This shows that Lukaku still has some improvements to make in this area, in order to be considered among the best.

Romelu also seems to struggle a lot with his back to goal and his first touch seems to let him down alarming often. Even in this preseason this was very evident. Lukaku failed to perform in games where he had a lot of long balls aimed at him and where he had to hold play up; most notably against Madrid. For such a mountain of a man, Lukaku had the worst average aerial duels won (44%) last season among our three current strikers.

Instead of playing with his back to goal, Lukaku prefers to play on the counter and use his pace and strength to run at defenders. Hence why Clark opted to bring him on in the second half most of the time, to great effect. This is evident by the fact that only 3 of his 17 goals came in the first half.

Conclusion:

Chelsea are lucky to have one of the most promising young strikers in the world among their ranks. At the age of just 20 he has already showed more ability than most strikers do in their life time and has made achievements, such as his famous hat-trick against united, that any top striker would be proud of. But is he ready to lead the line at Chelsea? I would say not quite yet, but he's certainly on the right track.

So, to go back to the opening point of this article: What should we expect from Lukaku this season? We should expect shots and goals, and, hopefully, lots of them. He is likely to be give a lot of starts and playing time by Jose in order for him to develop further. But he is also likely to be relegated to the bench in some big games where we need our striker to hold-play up and might be used as a super sub by Jose like he was by Clark at WBA.

In any scenario, Chelsea should definitely hold on to this Belgian gem, because if one thing is certain, it is that this boy is well on his way to become one of the best strikers in the world.

PS: All stats used in this article are from Squawka.com

PS 2: All stats used correspond to the 2012-13 PL season only.

PS 3: The stats used for Demba Ba are from his time at Chelsea only.

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[hjperdeath 2,226]

Always wanted to show people how Lukaku could finish with any body part.

Would love to see him start against Hull. love the article though.

[CHOULO19 24,332]

Always wanted to show people how Lukaku could finish with any body part.

Would love to see him start against Hull. love the article though.

Thanks, mate

Honestly, I don't know who to expect to start against Hull. Jose might also have the game against Villa 3 days later in mind.

[hjperdeath 2,226]

Thanks, mate

Honestly, I don't know who to expect to start against Hull. Jose might also have the game against Villa 3 days later in mind.

Probably let Torres and Ba play a game of hide and seek and decide.

[CHOULO19 24,332]

Probably let Torres and Ba play a game of hide and seek and decide.

Could see them start one of the game the two games each with Romelu coming on as a sub in both games. I personally would like Lukaku to start against Villa as they usually leave more spaces behind them. Hull will park the entire city, let alone the bus, in front of their goal. I'd rather Ba starts the Hull game.

[Drogzola 283]

Great article, I really hope we give the guy a chance. We have nothing to loose really as his stats cannot be worse than what Torres has offered us over the past few seasons.

[zyzz 711]

Great article! I really hope he can continue where he left off at West Brom.

[CHOULO19 24,332]

Great article, I really hope we give the guy a chance. We have nothing to loose really as his stats cannot be worse than what Torres has offered us over the past few seasons.

Agreed. But signing Rooney might change the whole equation. It will mean that there will be less games for Romelu to start, but it might also mean that he will get more time off the bench because I signing Rooney will give Jose a better chance to change to 4-4-2 as his plan B. Hopefully Romelu will be given the playing time he needs to develop.

[Drogzola 283]

Agreed. But signing Rooney might change the whole equation. It will mean that there will be less games for Romelu to start, but it might also mean that he will get more time off the bench because I signing Rooney will give Jose a better chance to change to 4-4-2 as his plan B. Hopefully Romelu will be given the playing time he needs to develop.

Yip, that changes things quite a bit, we would have to offload a striker and it would seem that Ba would have to go. I would prefer Torres to go but that seems almost impossible. A 4-4-2 would be great to see with Rooney and Lukaku, I try not get too excited about transfers until they happen though. It will surely be a great move to get Lukaku as much time in the Premier League early, as he can only get better and better.

[MAF 162]

Ive always thought he was bought for far less then 18 million pounds from Anderlecht. The Belgian media reported 12 million euro at the time, though there was something about extra money beeing paid afterwards depending on his performance..

[J.F. 1,484]

can't believe that he is finally 20 years old

[The Skipper 20,593]

Absolutely brilliant Chou.

[The Skipper 20,593]

Ive always thought he was bought for far less then 18 million pounds from Anderlecht. The Belgian media reported 12 million euro at the time, though there was something about extra money beeing paid afterwards depending on his performance..

Yeah that's right but the British media has brainwashed everyone.

[Goemaere 131]

Scored a goal every 48 minutes in preseason, did great in my opinion and it's unfair to expect more from a 20 year old. Should be 1st striker w/o rooney 2nd with.

[Stats 7,054]

Scored a goal every 48 minutes in preseason, did great in my opinion and it's unfair to expect more from a 20 year old. Should be 1st striker w/o rooney 2nd with.

If Rooney comes here I can see him sometimes playing behind Lukaku in that no.10 role.

[Stingray 9,441]

Great article Chou Chou !

[Atlas Lion 1,223]

We should be patient with him and allow him to adapt to his role of leading our line.

Unless by some miracle we sell Torres this window, having Torres if he sustains consistency would be a decent option for rotation.

[Kojo 4,676]

But don't we already know this?

it's clear to see that he hasn't got the best first touch in the world, anyone who was watched him will know that. He made a good impact as a super sub, but that's not all he is going to be. Theo Walcott starts, even though Wenger could bring him on halftime every game so he could have a larger impact, but he persists in starting Theo. That's how the game works, we can't pay 18 million and shot the kid on the bench for the rest of his career, that isn't going to happen.

Lukaku shouldn't be our starter this season anyway, despite his impressive loan, he still isn't at his best. Demba Ba is a better goal scorer than Lukaku, our main starter at the moment should be Ba. But that's not a good thing, we still need a new striker, and we must offload Torres. If Rooney does come, he will be starter, then Ba and Lukaku will be rotational.

However as we've seen Lukaku will be very useful coming off the bench now and then, because his physical aspects are brilliant. When we play against Hull I want Ba to start, then Lukaku to come on off the bench later in the game.