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Five tactical takeaways from the Premier League’s first five weekends

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5793283/2024/09/26/premier-league-takeaways-five-games/

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It is unwise to draw firm conclusions about your Premier League team in the early weeks of the season.

While it might be premature to spot any statistical trends, that doesn’t stop us from identifying some fun quirks that have stood out. As luck would have it, each of the five teams in question finished outside the top five positions in the Premier League last season. Don’t you love the symmetry? 

From West Ham United’s woes to Fulham’s flanks and a word from the xG gods, let’s dive in: feast your eyes on five tactical takeaways from the first five weekends.

Arise, the kick-off kings

Brentford are known for innovation. The club is built on finding value where no one else can, and their latest unveiling has been their front-foot approach to kick-offs.

Thomas Frank’s side started at a blistering pace in their last two games, with strikes from Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur the fastest back-to-back opening goals in Premier League history. 

Brentford are the poster boys for set-piece creativity and Frank’s team have clear patterns in their sequences — from throw-in mastery to corner routines that would not be out of place in an NFL playbook. Now they can add kick-offs to that list.

This is shown below across those two games, where a near-identical pattern sees Mikkel Damsgaard pass to goalkeeper Mark Flekken, who plays a diagonal pass to Kristoffer Ajer to win first contact. 

Against both sides, this led to a scruffy battle for the second ball — hence the breaking of the sequence — but there is method in Brentford’s approach as they build from there.

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“Of course, we work on kick-offs,” Frank said in the press conference after the Spurs game. “Some of it is the ball forward but it is also what we do on the second balls, where we position ourselves, and what we do after that.

“Every set piece we see as an opportunity, so it was well worked by the team and the coaches. It’s one of the more difficult to score from but we see it as a set-play situation we can set up and control as much as possible.” 

Surely, they couldn’t make it a third in a row against West Ham on Saturday? Keep an eye out from the first whistle.

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Jackson benefitting from statistical variance

Last season, Nicolas Jackson’s output could have been filed in a similar category to Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez. Strong physical attributes but finishing needed refinement.

Fourteen league goals in Jackson’s first Premier League campaign was respectable. Only Erling Haaland logged a higher non-penalty expected goals (xG) figure in the Premier League than his 18.6. Unfortunately, that xG underperformance was used as a stick with which to beat him. Only Brennan Johnson of Tottenham Hotspur and Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin underperformed their xG more than he did, scoring nearly five goals fewer than his chances warranted.

Statistical variance suggests Jackson’s underperformance would soon return to typical levels — and that is exactly what has happened this season with four goals in his opening five games. Where last season’s one-v-one chances were previously being saved…

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…this season’s Jackson is now emphatically slotting similar efforts with little issue.

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Aggregating his shots across his Chelsea career, Jackson’s scoring rate is creeping closer to the quality of chances he has found himself with. Crucially, a 0.24 xG per shot — which measures the average quality of a given chance — is the highest among all players with 50-plus shots since Jackson arrived in the Premier League.

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Those are the sort of numbers that make for a sustainable source of goals. The process has always been good, now Jackson’s output looks to be catching up at the same rate.


Forest’s attacking patterns

Nottingham Forest’s unbeaten start in their opening five games was not on anyone’s bingo card, but Nuno Espirito Santo has established a clear way of playing built on the foundations laid by Steve Cooper.

In particular, the pace of Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Morgan Gibbs-White provide a strong counter-attacking threat when Forest burst forward, with the trio able to drag their team upfield at speed when Forest regain possession in their own third.

It makes sense to utilise the strengths of such strong ball-carriers, but Forest’s sharp, one-touch passing has also caught the eye — enabling them to pierce opposition defences with neat “up-back-and-through” principles.

The pattern is simple but effective. The ball is played “up” to a forward who drops it “back” to a team-mate to play it “through” to a runner ahead of the ball. This can be seen in the sequence for Forest’s opening goal against Bournemouth…

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…. and was on show again last weekend against Brighton. Note Chris Wood’s run towards the ball drags Brighton centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke out of position, allowing Gibbs-White to play the ball through to Jota Silva.

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Good summer business and a full pre-season has helped Nuno instil his ideas in and out of possession, as Forest look to cement themselves as a Premier League side. 


West Ham have lost their counter-attacking threat

In contrast to Forest’s approach, West Ham United’s new era under Julen Lopetegui has seen them stray from the counter-attacking style that was their biggest strength.

Fans often wrestled with David Moyes’ pragmatic-yet-effective counter-attacking football that would see their side stay compact for long stretches before springing forward with pace.

Last season, only Liverpool, Arsenal, and Aston Villa scored more than West Ham’s 12 goals from direct attacks — possessions starting in the defensive half and leading to a shot or touch inside the opposition penalty area within 15 seconds — as Moyes’ side packed a punch in those transitional moments.

However, that approach has all but disappeared. West Ham have attempted just eight direct attacks this season — the fewest in the league — as they search for an identity under Lopetegui.

Tough opening fixtures have complicated the transition towards a new style, but playing against Chelsea, Manchester City and Aston Villa should provide even more reason to keep a resolute, deeper block and exploit spaces when possible. Against elite sides, playing a high line with little pressure on the ball is nothing short of tactical suicide — as West Ham have found out in recent weeks.

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It is the first time in their history West Ham have suffered three consecutive home defeats at the start of a league season. 

Patience is required as the quality in the squad will undoubtedly shine through, but some of the early-season performances have highlighted that there is plenty of work to be done in transforming West Ham’s style, both in and out of possession.


Fulham wide connections are strong

Fulham’s opening goal against Newcastle would not have been an unfamiliar sighting at Molineux circa 2019, as former Wolves pair Adama Traore and Raul Jimenez linked up for a well-worked crossing sequence.

Crossing has been a cornerstone of Fulham’s play under Marco Silva, with only Luton Town averaging more open-play crosses than Fulham’s 14.1 per 90 minutes last season.

Silva’s wide play has taken on a new form with Traore building a strong relationship with full-back Kenny Tete and midfielder Andreas Pereira on Fulham’s right flank. Having started only one Premier League game in 2023-24, Traore is building momentum and reminding fans of his quality with consistent minutes after an injury-played campaign.

Those micro-networks have been crucial for Fulham, as shown in their pass connection matrix below. Calvin Bassey playing it to Bernd Leno and Antonee Robinson, and Leno finding Bassey as an immediate option in front of him, stand out (highlighted in red shade). But the frequency of passes between Pereira, Traore and Tete is also clear to see.

Fulham_pass_connections.png

The same goes for Fulham’s left wing, where the attacking threat of Robinson and Alex Iwobi has been supercharged by the arrival of Emile Smith Rowe. Two goals and an assist is a great start from the former Arsenal man, and the link-up between the left-side trio was on show again against Newcastle.

With Smith Rowe operating in the left half-space, Iwobi will often drift inside which enables Robinson to overlap (slide two below) and stretch the opposition back line. It was a perfect example of the combination in action as Smith Rowe ran onto Iwobi’s pass to stab home.

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It is a pattern spotted by The Athletic earlier this season, this time with Robinson’s run being found by Iwobi who crosses deep to the back post. The man on the end of it? The in-form Traore.

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If Fulham are to build on their 13th-placed finish last year, a lot of their success will be down to those networks and relationships forming on both flanks.

Edited by Vesper
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Premier League partner Sorare to appear in court over UK Gambling Commission charge

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5796141/2024/09/26/sorare-premier-league-charge-gambling/

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Sorare, an official partner of the Premier League, has been charged by the UK Gambling Commission with allegedly “providing unlicensed gambling facilities to consumers in Britain”.

The company will appear at Birmingham Magistrates’ Court on October 4 to face the charge.

In January 2023, the Premier League announced a four-year license with Sorare “to release digital cards of players from all 20 Premier League clubs as part of its free-to-play online fantasy football game”. Sorare features on the Premier League’s official website as a partner.

Sorare is a game in which players buy in cryptocurrency, win and manage a virtual team of digital player cards (NFTs, or non-fungible tokens). Its website says users can “compete for more than $15,000,000 in total cash prizes, VIP tickets, signed jerseys and more”.

“Sorare’s digital cards and innovative online game represent a new way for them to feel closer to the Premier League whether they are watching in the stadium or from around the world,” Premier League chief executive Richard Masters commented when the Sorare deal was announced.

The Gambling Commission said in 2021 that it was investigating whether Sorare provided a gambling service and if it therefore needed a license to do so. The Premier League is not commenting following the Gambling Commission’s charge.

Premier League side Liverpool have also previously been partnered with Sorare. The club posted about the partnership as recently as April, but they no longer have a relationship with the French company following the expiration of their deal in May.

Per its website, Sorare also has partnerships with MLS, the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga, as well as the NBA and MLB.

Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe is also partnered with the firm and has posted advertisements for it on his social media platforms.

Sorare was founded in Paris in 2018 and claims to have three million users across 180 countries. It also lists former footballers Rio Ferdinand and Gerard Pique among its investors and partners.

“We are aware of the claims made by the Gambling Commission and have instructed our UK counsel to challenge them,” a Sorare spokesperson said. “We firmly deny any claims that Sorare is a gambling product under UK laws. The Commission has misunderstood our business and wrongly determined that gambling laws apply to Sorare. We cannot comment further whilst legal proceedings are underway.”

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Ranking each Premier League club for ‘dark arts’

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5788866/2024/09/27/premier-league-club-dark-arts-ranked/

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Football’s dark arts. You may have read, heard or watched a bit about that subject this week.

Wind-up merchants, rule benders, injury fakers, divers, pinchers, medical staff who love running on the pitch, time-wasters… every club has them, but how dark arts-y is your team?

We can — and will — use metrics and data to help discover the best/worst offenders, but nefarious behaviour cannot always be quantified: teams should also be subjected to the eye test.

Two points.

First, this is a (reasonably) light-hearted exercise so, please, no nasty messages.

Second, this is not a hall of shame. Far from it; teams who best utilise the dark arts tend to be more successful. A bit of devilment can go a long way and, well, nice guys finish last. Or, nice guys don’t tend to win anything.

Talking of which, in reverse order, let’s start our list.


20. Tottenham Hotspur

Ange Postecoglou. Principled. Strong moral core. Hates cheating. Fair dinkum.

Spurs play the game quickly, in a “We’ve got no time for time-wasting” manner. They were the quickest team in the league last season for getting the game moving again (24.4 seconds per restart).

“I don’t believe in the dark arts,” Postecoglou said at a press conference this week. “I don’t know how to do it; it’s just not in my make up. My thing has always been, if teams are going to go down that way we’ve got to be even more disciplined to make sure we don’t get distracted.”

Richarlison probably wouldn’t agree… maybe that’s why he’s been out of favour? James Maddison is always on the wind-up, but with a Del Boy-esque knowing smile and cheeky wink.

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg was the king at falling on the ball, talking to the ref, slowing things down and managing the game. But now? It’s just not what Spurs do, mate.

xSH (expected shithousery) – 1/10

19. Bournemouth

Bournemouth had a fine reputation for the dark arts in the Championship when they were managed by Eddie Howe (everyone pretend to be shocked) but only West Ham and Manchester City had fewer bookings for time-wasting or not retreating last season.

Plus they’ve loaned out goalkeeper Neto — renowned for winding up opposition fans or taking the sting out of a game with an achingly long goal kick. He’s gone to Arsenal (everyone pretend to be shocked).

xSH – 1/10

18. Crystal Palace

Palace were probably too nice anyway — perhaps a legacy from gentleman Roy Hodgson’s era — but since losing serial free-kick-winner Jordan Ayew, or Joachim Andersen (who helped earn Darwin Nunez a red card for headbutting on his home Liverpool debut a couple of years ago) and Wilfried Zaha, for so long a strong contender for the Premier League’s most annoying player award, Palace are even softer now.

Maybe if they toughened up they’d finish higher than 12th.

xSH – 1/10

17. West Ham United

Only six bookings for time-wasting/not retreating last season, the second-nicest record in the league.

David Moyes just wasn’t that kind of manager. When told before the Europa Conference League final in 2023 that Fiorentina were going to deliberately stop counter-attacks with fouls, he said: “It will be down to the referees to sort that out. We’ll try to play a fair game. From my point of view that’s always the best way to try and do it.”

Julen Lopetegui hasn’t enlisted many dark arts from his players yet. To be fair, he’s got other things to work on first.

xSH – 1/10

16. Ipswich Town

The fresh-faced Premier League newbies took 37.2 seconds with their restarts against Manchester City in August, the sixth-highest of any side this season, as they desperately attempted to hold on to a *checks notes* 4-1 defeat.

It’s far too soon to tell how easily they’re going to be corrupted by a bloodthirsty lust for Premier League survival.

xSH – 2/10

15. Leicester City

Being really annoying won’t guarantee you Premier League survival — Sheffield United took a league-high average of 31.2 seconds with their restarts last season but were relegated before May — but it might help.

Leicester haven’t had many opportunities to delay/see out victories this season yet but even against Crystal Palace, when they were winning from minutes 21 to 90+2, they arguably didn’t disrupt the game enough and paid the price with a stoppage-time equaliser.

Only one player won more free kicks than Jordan Ayew last season, so he’s a welcome addition to the s***housery stakes, while Jamie Vardy has always played on the edge. They could do with a Robert Huth-type figure — a true dark arts master.

xSH – 2/10

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14. Brighton

Brighton seem more preoccupied with frivolous matters like playing nice football.

They do have Joel Veltman though: he gives the impression that butter wouldn’t melt but, as Declan Rice’s red card at Arsenal the other week shows, he has another side to him.

He can often be spotted positioning his body in front of the ball to be easily nudged over, and will happily take a yellow for the team with a pull of the shirt or a foul to stop a counter-attacking threat.

He’s smart, too; in four seasons he’s earned 24 bookings but has never been suspended.

xSH – 2/10

13. Everton

There’s a smidgen of evidence this season that suggests Everton aren’t good at seeing a game out.

In their past four games they’ve been 2-0 up against Bournemouth and Aston Villa and 1-0 up against Southampton (in the Carabao Cup) and Leicester, but only have one point and a cup exit to show for their efforts.

If anything, they’re just too nice. Jordan Pickford can take a while with goal kicks and James Tarkowski isn’t afraid of some argy-bargy, but streetwise, underhand dark arts? This lot are an honest bunch.

xSH – 2/10

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12. Fulham

Well, they have got four yellow cards for time-wasting this season and took seven minutes out of the game for goal kicks in their victory over Newcastle. But are very firmly middle of the road.

xSH – 3/10

11. Liverpool

“We didn’t waste time, we didn’t invent new cheeky things for set pieces, getting rid of gloves or whatever,” Jurgen Klopp said in May. “We just tried to fight harder than other teams. It was an incredible time.”

He would say that, of course, but Klopp’s claims pretty much pass the eye and data tests — Liverpool, after Spurs, were the second-quickest at restarts last season with an average of 24.2 seconds. No wonder they only won a Carabao Cup between them.

It seems Arne Slot has picked up where Klopp left off. They have no time-wasting bookings this season or any notable examples of underhand behaviour. Give it time.

There is Andy Robertson, though. He brings their rating up a level.

xSH – 3/10

10. Manchester City

“We are an honest team,” Pep Guardiola said after the draw with Arsenal.

How true is that? Or are City just too busy blitzing the opposition with goals to have to worry about being proper s***houses?

There’s often been talk about City’s tactical fouls — one of their assistants was seen telling players to do it on an Amazon documentary in 2018 (his name was Mikel something?).

But they are very good at winning fouls when in a tight spot. For example, if they’re penned in to a corner when trying to play out, or challenging for a second ball, they’ll get across the man and draw the foul, relieving the pressure. They s***housed Atletico Madrid at their own game in the Champions League in 2022 — Koke said in the aftermath that they were “falling on the floor and wasting time” — which is no mean feat.

Good at winning fouls? Yes. Rotational fouls? Well, they’ve been known to do that, too. But you wouldn’t call them masters. They also had the fewest number of bookings (five) for time-wasting or not retreating last season and were the third-quickest for restarts (25.2 seconds).

xSH – 4/10

 

9. Manchester United

United tend to spend their time scratching their heads at the goal they’ve just conceded/failed to score, but they have their s***house moments.

Andre Onana was booked five times for time-wasting last season, while Bruno Fernandes’ gamesmanship, pestering of referees, dramatically falling to the floor, exaggerating injuries and holding onto the ball to delay play is of an extremely high level.

xSH – 5/10

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8. Aston Villa

Thirteen bookings for time-wasting or not retreating last season, the second-highest in the league.

And, with Neal Maupay’s departure to France, they surely have the undisputed biggest s***house in the Premier League, nay the country, in Emi Martinez, the king of the delayed penalty, or the delayed goal kick, or the winder-up of opposition fans, players, managers, anybody.

“I think it’s natural,” he told The Guardian last month. “I don’t think about it, I just do it. I’m just a normal guy, a family man.”

Just a normal guy. And a natural-born s***house.

xSH – 6/10

7. Southampton

Only just back in the Premier League and therefore any data from this season is too small a sample size, although it should be noted their restarts took 40.3 seconds on average against Ipswich last weekend as they tried to help see out a 1-0 win having taken the lead in the fifth minute (narrator: “They lasted until the 95th minute”).

However, Southampton, the club who helped pioneer the tactic of stopping play to have a team talk under Ralph Hasenhuttl, are definitely no strangers to the dark arts, if West Bromwich Albion boss Carlos Corberan’s opinion counts for anything.

During the second leg of their play-off semi-final at St Mary’s in May, Corberan seemed to accuse Southampton of delaying West Brom’s entry into the stadium, saying: “We were on the bus for 15 minutes waiting to find the entrance to the stadium. I don’t know why nobody came to help us or followed normal protocol.”

Southampton also brought advertising hoardings in try and negate the threat of Darnell Furlong’s long throws.

“They did things they probably didn’t need to,” Corberan added. Big dark arts potential here.

xSH – 6/10

6. Chelsea

It’s hard to have the dark arts ingrained in your team when the players and manager keep changing every five minutes, but Chelsea give it a go.

They brilliantly s***housed their way to a 2-1 victory at Brighton in May, taking a season-high 50 seconds per restart in a game that saw Reece James sent off in the 88th minute before 11 minutes of stoppage time.

They also had the most bookings in the league last year for time-wasting or not retreating (17).

xSH – 7/10

5. Wolves

Gary O’Neil may be the perennial “lovely guy, to be fair”, but that hasn’t stopped him enlisting suspect methods in a bid to win football matches.

Wolves were the second-worst offenders in the Premier League last season for cards given for time-wasting or not retreating, with 15. Five of those were given to Nelson Semedo, the league’s joint-biggest waster of time. Important ‘r’, there.

Yerson Mosquera escalated matters when he appeared to stick his finger in a place that Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus really didn’t appreciate on the opening day of the season. Matheus Cunha will go to ground very easily. And Jose Sa earned a reputation for staying down ‘injured’ during tense moments to break up play that season, often leading to a completely impromptu team talk. However, now that the unfortunate Mosquera is out for the season injured and Sa is on the bench, Wolves are a bit nicer.

xSH – 7/10

4. Brentford

Brentford may have lost Ivan Toney and Neal Maupay from last year’s squad, offering a severe blow to their dark arts rating, but anyone who has watched the Bees since their promotion to the Premier League will know that Thomas Frank loves a good s***house.

They were third in the delays league last season, taking 30.1 seconds on average per restart, plus nine bookings for time-wasting or not retreating. When then-Wolves manager Bruno Lage accused Brentford of time-wasting in 2021, Frank didn’t deny it, saying: “I could ask him what he would have done if he was leading a newly promoted team?”

Jurgen Klopp complimented “smart” Brentford after they beat Liverpool in 2023: “When I say they stretch the rules in offensive set pieces — and they do, don’t get me wrong, they are smart but they do — if you singled out every situation you would find five fouls.”

xSH – 7/10

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3. Nottingham Forest

Ironically for a team who had so many decisions go against them last season, Forest more than enjoy a dabble in football’s underhand tactics. In 2023-24 they took the second longest over restarts (30.2 seconds on average) and already have four cards this season for either time-wasting or not retreating.

Nuno Espirito Santo and his backroom team have long had a reputation for being touchline rapscallions, even going back to their Wolves days in the Championship when then-Aston Villa boss Steve Bruce said: “They are vociferous all the time. That’s their prerogative — we don’t quite behave like that.”

In Ryan Yates, Forest probably have one of the Premier League’s most underhand free-kick winners. Yates has mastered the art of waiting for a player to make contact and then falling dramatically, all in one fluid movement, on to the ball, before transitioning into an impassioned appeal for a free kick. On average, he wins 3.05 free kicks per game.

Yates is also an exceptional wind-up merchant, adept at riling opposition players with subtle fouls or leaving a bit on them after the ball has gone.

xSH – 8/10

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2. Arsenal

“Yes, I don’t think there are many better than them at it,” Manchester City’s Manuel Akanji said last weekend.

Arsenal almost gave a masterclass in seeing out a game, while having just 12 per cent possession of the ball in that second half at the Etihad.

David Raya took a whole nine minutes out of the game purely by taking 45 seconds per goal kick (there were 12 of them) — a minute more than any team has taken with theirs so far this season.

The average delay of their 32 restarts was 42.7 seconds, the second-highest of any team in 2024-25, while Arsenal now have six yellow cards for timewasting/not retreating this season — two more than anyone else.

“You can call it clever or dirty, but they break up the game, which upsets the rhythm,” City defender John Stones told Sky Sports. “They’ve done it for a few years.”

GettyImages-2173747741-1-2048x1401.jpg

In mitigation, Arsenal have been down to 10 men in two games this season when trying to see out games, which will up their numbers, and it’s something Arteta has spoken about.

In February after a defeat by Porto in the Champions League, the Arsenal manager said: “There are ways to do it. It is the way you talk to them, showing them clips, training — putting them through scenarios, pinching them a few times as well, learning from other players who do it really well and teams who are masters at it. It is something that has to be developed.”

He’s managed it.

xSH – 9/10

1. Newcastle United

Newcastle have a reputation for dark arts under Eddie Howe that has been very well earned.

Assistant manager Jason Tindall remains one of the league’s biggest wind-up merchants, playing the role of Howe’s attack dog in the fourth official’s ear, generally being active and vocal on the touchline.

Goalkeeper Nick Pope is prone to getting an “injury” at opportune moments when Newcastle need to have a breather and Howe needs to have a word with his team.

GettyImages-2169732711-2048x1285.jpg

You can almost guarantee that Fabian Schar will go down with an apparent head injury in most matches, yet never comes off because of them, while Jacob Murphy is very much a s***houser — he waved Southampton’s Duje Caleta-Car off the field when he was sent off against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup a couple of seasons ago. And a couple of seasons ago Jamaal Lascelles picked up two separate cautions while warming up on the touchline for delaying opposition throw-ins.

In April, after Newcastle won at Brentford, their manager Thomas Frank was furious with Newcastle’s tactics: “We need to look into the dark arts of football and be aware of the sportsmanship,” he said in a press conference, while also revealing that Brentford’s staff were more vocal with the fourth official because “we know that Newcastle have that strategy”, calling out Tindall specifically.

Bruno Guimaraes was, by a distance, the most fouled player in the Premier League last season and he’s at it again this year, with 22 fouls won — more than any other. Second on the list? Anthony Gordon on 17.

Newcastle remain the standard-bearers for the phrase by the philosopher Joey Tribbiani: “If you’re going to do something wrong, do it right.”

xSH – 10/10

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Premier League.

Nеwсаstlе Unіtеd vs Mаnсhеstеr Сіty

28 September 2024 at 12:30.
 
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Rico Lewis in MF is a bit spotty as well

and Foden still looks like something is off

Pep is really going to have to do something special to win the CL and the league without Rodri

they just are such a different team without him (think De Bruyne 5 years ago to see a similar 'must-play' situation)

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