Chelsea Transfers

[Vesper 29,012]

16 minutes ago, petre.ispirescu said:

When I think of freebies some great names come to my mind like Lewandowski, Pirlo, Ballack, even Milner turned out to be a great free transfer for Liverpool, I could also add Sol Campbell, Miro Klose and others I can't remember atm or I don't know of. 

But I think Christian Eriksen will be there in that list, too, in a few years. For me he is a must come next summer, sell Barkley he's useless anyway and bring Eriksen in. Or at least try. If he says no then fair enough, but Frank must try at least, he's simply too good to pass up. 

Eriksen really wants to play in Spain, at either Madrid club, especially Real, or Barca, from all I have seen. Plus, we are already (assuming RLC gets healthy again) already overloaded at AMF. If he is on a free, sure, what the hell, as we can always sell him on.

I really strongly advocate going for a hybrid DMF/CMF like Thomas Partey (that £45m release clause is so low, god help us if Manure or Spuds  or Arse grabs him) or go full youth and snatch up Camavinga, who I feel will be a superstar buy the time he hits 20 (he turned 17 two days ago). He is special, and Kante can so mentor him (they are both French and both are swing DMF/CMF freaks. We have NO players on the squad remotely like either Thomas or Camavinga (Kante would be the closest).The club seems set on Declan Rice, which, IF you pull Camavinga off the board is probably an understandable move, although I would also toss Florentino from Benfica into the mix as well. Pep wants him BAD so will be a super hard pull. I would have to think Barca too and other huge clubs.

 

[Vesper 29,012]

Manchester United 'join chase for Rennes wonderkid Eduardo Camavinga'… but face competition from Barcelona for £26m star

Eduardo Camavinga seen as one of the brightest prospects in French football
The 17-year-old has started all 13 of Rennes' Ligue 1 games this season 
Man United, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are interested in the midfielder 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-7673681/Manchester-United-join-chase-Rennes-wonderkid-Eduardo-Camavinga.html

Manchester United are reportedly one of a number of big clubs interested in signing young Rennes star Eduardo Camavinga.

The 17-year-old, who has been part of Rennes' system since the age of 11, has become a first team regular, starting all 13 of his side's Ligue 1 games this season.

Regarded as one the brightest prospects in French football, Camavinga's performances have already caught the eye of the likes of United, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, according to L'Equipe.

The French outlet also claim it will take a bid in the region of £26million if Rennes are to let the midfielder go.  

Camavinga has primarily been used as a defensive midfielder during his senior career but his technical and physical attributes have earned him comparisons with Manchester United and France star Paul Pogba.

He is in the process of gaining French nationality, having moved to the country from Angola when he was six, and his excited youth coaches believe he has what it takes to one day be even more influential in the national team's midfield than Pogba and N'Golo Kante.

And in a connection to another of France's senior stars, Camavinga has the same agent - Moussa Sissoko - as Barcelona winger Ousmane Dembele.

Demebele also started his career at Rennes, coming through the ranks before moving to Borussia Dortmund in 2016 and then Barcelona in a deal worth up to £135.5m a year later.

snip

lol at £26m

I wish!!!!!!

 

 

[1905didierblue 748]

2 hours ago, King Kante said:

Not sure about all your figures but if we do get a bid of £90m+ for Kante, I see Granny cashing in. 

The club has a total market value of less than 900mil, but according to some we will have a budget of 600/700mil £. 😂😂

Not sure, but are we selling the bridge of something. 600mil£. 😂. And then people will blame the board for not doing their job simply because they have no idea about what the reality is.

Anyways, totally agree with your post.

[the wes 7,212]

 

[Fulham Broadway 16,917]

I think what this season has shown is that the much maligned loan policy can actually work out well for both the club and players

[Vesper 29,012]

11 hours ago, 1905didierblue said:

The club has a total market value of less than 900mil, but according to some we will have a budget of 600/700mil £. 😂😂

Not sure, but are we selling the bridge of something. 600mil£. 😂. And then people will blame the board for not doing their job simply because they have no idea about what the reality is.

Anyways, totally agree with your post.

You are starting to make yourself look foolish. You offer nothing of substance to counter a simple summation of sale valuations. Give it up. Your snarky shit is weak. If you think the total valuation of all the players under contract plus the sales that have already occurred is only £900m then I really want some of what you appear to be smoking. If you are removing all the sales that have occurred or will occur and simply writing them off and removing those monies completely (or even partially other than to subtract out Kovacic, which I definitively showed that even doing that and zeroing out all 2020 expiry contracts still yields over £500m) then you are also being completely dishonest. 

[killer1257 3,282]

Oki lets list out the sales and the revenues generated, and some of these are already done
I am being really pretty realistic on these numbers too (the speculative, not locked-in numbers)
 
£135m Hazard 
£9m Ola Aina
£8m Kalas
£8m Luiz
£8m Hector
£5m Omeruo
£30m Bakayoko
£30m Bats
£50m Morata
£30m Alonso
£40m Zouma
£10m Moses
£13m Zappacosta
£12m Drinkwater
£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell)
£10m Baba
£7m Lewis Baker
£7m Juan Castillo
£13m Mario Pašalić
£8m Jake Clarke-Salter 
£10m Kenedy
£5m Matt Miazga
£2m Richard Nartey
£5m  Charly Musonda
£5m Lucas Piazón
£5m Danilo Pantic
£8  Izzy Brown
£8m Marco van Ginkel (when fully fit)
£25m Azpi
£3m  Jay Dasilva
£4m Kasey Palmer
£30m Barkely
£10m Pedro
£10m Giroud
 
that is £588m quid in gross sale revenue alone (and we have LOST well over £200m in potential valuations the last 2, 3 years due to fucked up sales and non sales and horrid contractual management or we could have had well over 3/4 of a BILLION quid total sales revenue)
many of those sales are already DONE (and the right numbers added in)
EVEN if I am off by £50m total 
that is bloody well OVER HALF A BILLION POUNDS STERLING (£538m)  WE CAN HAVE IN THE POT for summer 2020
 
so, yes, the goddamn money is THERE to grab these targets everyone is talking about
lets just drop these names
Konate or Romagnoli £70m
Ake £40m (replaces Zouma or AC, as both would sell for around the same quid)
Chillwell £70m
Declan Rice £70m (I say Camavinga for the future (Kante can so mentor him, as they are both French), or Thomas Partey (who is only £45m with his release clause) for NOW, but the club is hellbent on Rice, which remains to be seen who is right or wrong)
Sancho £120m (he MAY be a wee bit cheaper, but I am show conservative numbers here to prove my point)
Werner £25m (due to low release clause)
 
TOTAL COST  £395M
LETS SAY I AM 10% UNDER-PRICING on the total (probably the CB's would be the most likely), well that leaves the total cost at £435m
That leaves us £103m to £153m net PROFIT from the sales listed AFTER the hedge
 
plus, we COULD sell AC AND Zouma
and buy BOTH Romagnoli AND Konate and it would still leave £50m to £100 NET PROFIT ( and that is WITH my 10% additional cost add-on hedge)
OR (as some have suggested, sell RUDIGER and NOT Zouma, plus AC (IF we go for both Konate and Romagnoli) and then you can add on and additional £15m to £20m or so to any of those net profit numbers)
That is NOT Football Manager, those are ALL HARD, realistic numbers, zero unrealistic maths
only thing is get the negotiations done and we have had AGES to plan this SHIT, so fuck right off Marina and Co. if you bollocks this shit up

As far as I know, most Transfers are paid through payment by installments. So if Hazard went for 100 mio., we would get depending on the Contract 20 mio. the first year, second another 20 mio. etc.

So, we would have to loan out some money if we wanted to spend 400 mio.



Gesendet von meinem SM-G920F mit Tapatalk

[Vesper 29,012]

1 hour ago, killer1257 said:

As far as I know, most Transfers are paid through payment by installments. So if Hazard went for 100 mio., we would get depending on the Contract 20 mio. the first year, second another 20 mio. etc.

So, we would have to loan out some money if we wanted to spend 400 mio.



Gesendet von meinem SM-G920F mit Tapatalk
 

think about what you just typed

if all (or most) transfers are staggered payments, why would we need to take a loan out as we would make staggered payments too

[1905didierblue 748]

5 hours ago, Vesper said:

You are starting to make yourself look foolish. You offer nothing of substance to counter a simple summation of sale valuations. Give it up. Your snarky shit is weak. If you think the total valuation of all the players under contract plus the sales that have already occurred is only £900m then I really want some of what you appear to be smoking. If you are removing all the sales that have occurred or will occur and simply writing them off and removing those monies completely (or even partially other than to subtract out Kovacic, which I definitively showed that even doing that and zeroing out all 2020 expiry contracts still yields over £500m) then you are also being completely dishonest. 

Lol.

You have no understanding of how finances work and you just keep blabbing on and on and on with the same shit.

Understand how amortization works. How once sold a player's profit will not and can not be carried to the next year, meaning you will need to incur losses the next fiscal year if we over buy, which is exactly what you are doing and which to be very fair is childish to say the least.

You want to bet 1000£ on what the value of our totals ins is going to be this summer. Is it going to be a healthy 200m or whatever weird and otT figure you can conjure up?

What is your issue with proper facts, by the way. 

Youwant to know the club's bloody market value? Here

https://www.statista.com/statistics/267294/fc-chelsea-london-brand-team-value/

https://www.transfermarkt.co.in/fc-chelsea/startseite/verein/631

https://www.google.com/amp/s/the18.com/soccer-entertainment/premier-league-club-market-value%3famp

Want more sources? Hell man. 

The only person coming out looking foolish is you. Again, you wanna put your money where your mouth is regarding how much the club will spend.

 

Again, I am not removing any thing. I am not removing the sale of hazard from Chelsea. But that sale happened in 19/20. Our books for 19/20 will reflect that sale. Hazard will have NOTHING to do with 20/21. Meaning if we buy a player worth 120mil on 200kpw contract, we would incur an amortized value of 34mil (120mil over 5 years + 200kpw wages for an year) for 20/21 without having any player sales to show as profit. Which would mean massive losses. Something that any well run club/financial company won't do. The problem is not "summation", any nincompoop can add, it's what is realistically and fiscally probable given the constraints. And you need to understand that. Unless roman does a massive u turn and opens up his cheque book, the club says "fuck ffp" and disregards the finances like in 05-08, it's not going to happen.

If you are still unconvinced, please read up on what amortization is and how is works and impacts a club's financial statement.

[Vesper 29,012]

My total on all the sales (after I added in the left out by mistake £13m from the pre-cooked Mario Pašalić Atalanta deal) was £588m

add in the loan fee inflows (£18m cumulative as best I can reconnoitre without seeing the actual club's books for some I have missed)

£606m is the final total

NOW

Lets say we get ZERO, NOTHING, Zilch from all of the following (either they walk on frees or we do not sell now) I leave the valuations in that I assigned  to each to show exactly what I removing

£8m Marco van Ginkel (when fully fit)
£25m Azpi
£10m Pedro
£10m Giroud

£25m Willian (if we renew him and sell) (if he walks on a free we lost £65m based of the July 2018 Marina turn down of Barca)
£12m Drinkwater (what a cockup, even with his loan fees/or partial salary pickup we will still end up losing around £55-60m on this donkey if he does end up walking on a free, and that is WITH clubs picking up part of his salary)

£10m Kenedy

that's an even £100m

Still leaves £506m (and IF we get the actual in-contract Monaco strike price for Bakayoko it is then around £514m or so, but as I have stated multiple times, I hedged downward and assumed we sell him for less)

Another thing to keep in mind is that the pound has risen a lot versus the euro, so if if we sell players to English clubs, we gain if we then have to buy players from continental clubs in euros, and if we sell in euros, we can play the arbitrage game, and either keep the monies in euro-based accounts OR convert to pounds (IF we think the pound will go up even more versus the euro, and thus increase our buying power more. Abramovich is a financial wizard, he knows all this for decades).

I also have a very hard time believing we will end up taking a £100m complete wipe out on ALL seven listed players at the end of the day. 4

(To really show what I have talked about when I say the board has made horrific moves in the realm of financial management) it is actual vastly higher (around £200m on just those 7 if we do end up with zero from sales for all of them) on semi non-balance sheet (as there were no sales, but there was a rotten buy that does go on the books) paper when you add in the revenue losses coming from the non timely sales of Willian and Azpi and the horrific buy/money flush of Drinkwater)

 

Finally, to show the cumulative losses from non timely sales and bad buys over the past several windows (going back to summer 2017)

I lay out these

Summer 2019 Hazard versus what we got  around a £55m to £65m loss (depending on what Real would have paid (they were up to £190m and or so and Marian told them what worked out to £220m, which was asinine, as they were paying in euros)

Summer 2017 Cuntois versus what we got in 2018- around  £40m (the board fucking knew that he was NEVER going to renew and ZZ wanted him BADLY)

Summer 2018 Kepa buy versus what we could have purchased Allison for in summer 2017 - close to £50m, even if we overpaid for Alisson in 2017 and dropped £25m to £30m on him (summer of 2017 he was rated at £6.3m on Transfermarkt), it still is is a well over £42-47m shit away) There were also other decent keepers out there in 2017 who could have easily been had for 25 to 30m, although I simply must add my wife and I were ALL in for Alisson back then, as our Brasilian mates from Porto Allegre were saying he was going to be a superstar.

Summer of 2018 Willian £65m non sale, and if he walks on a free that is a pure loss

Summer of 2017 Drinkwater buy- assuming we get zero in transfer fees (as many have assured me we will now,) and also have eat part of his remaining wages, call it a around a £50-55m net loss when the books are closed

Summer of 2018 non sales of Azpi and Alonso- assuming we get around £30m for Alonso and ZERO for Azpi this is a net £60-65m loss for the pair, based on hard offers and then Marinas ridiculous demands that were laughed at by the clubs who wanted them

January 2019 £16m (fees plus wages) money flush on Higs PLUS the non buy of Piatek, who even IF we was meh, we still could have made £ on a reseale as his BUT price ans salary were crazy low. Call it a £20-25m net net cockup

Summer of 2018 turndown of ,£30m from PSG for Luiz (and failure to buy Kehrer, who was only 3m more and who PSG did buy and who would have been a great replacenet at CB plus would have allowed the Azpi sale as he is a great RB too so the double whammy) call it a  £22m straight loss, as we got £8m for him, and it could be more as Kehrer would cost at least £40m now, but I am not going to go pure speculative here)

I also will NOT even add in Bakayoko, Morata, Zappacosta, Bats,etc (it is not the board's fault that van Ginkel blew out his knee, thus wrecking his sale to PSV) as even though we over-payed, they looked like oki deals at the time (Zappa not so much), and hope we will salvage a lot of the moneys spent

total up those and you have (taking the LOWEST figures and assuming we get zero for Willian, zero for Azpi and £30m for Alonso, zero for Drinkwater other than partial wages paid) around £354m (not joking you can double check my maths) in revenue losses and bad buy/bad loan/bad non buy loses

that is a shit tonne of cash flushed down the loo in terms of loss of monies to buy replacements/upgrades (which we surely would have done on almost all of those deals if they had went through)

[1905didierblue 748]

Pointless.

[Vesper 29,012]

39 minutes ago, 1905didierblue said:

Lol.

You have no understanding of how finances work and you just keep blabbing on and on and on with the same shit.

Understand how amortization works. How once sold a player's profit will not and can not be carried to the next year, meaning you will need to incur losses the next fiscal year if we over buy, which is exactly what you are doing and which to be very fair is childish to say the least.

You want to bet 1000£ on what the value of our totals ins is going to be this summer. Is it going to be a healthy 200m or whatever weird and otT figure you can conjure up?

What is your issue with proper facts, by the way. 

Youwant to know the club's bloody market value? Here

https://www.statista.com/statistics/267294/fc-chelsea-london-brand-team-value/

https://www.transfermarkt.co.in/fc-chelsea/startseite/verein/631

https://www.google.com/amp/s/the18.com/soccer-entertainment/premier-league-club-market-value%3famp

Want more sources? Hell man. 

The only person coming out looking foolish is you. Again, you wanna put your money where your mouth is regarding how much the club will spend.

 

Again, I am not removing any thing. I am not removing the sale of hazard from Chelsea. But that sale happened in 19/20. Our books for 19/20 will reflect that sale. Hazard will have NOTHING to do with 20/21. Meaning if we buy a player worth 120mil on 200kpw contract, we would incur an amortized value of 34mil (120mil over 5 years + 200kpw wages for an year) for 20/21 without having any player sales to show as profit. Which would mean massive losses. Something that any well run club/financial company won't do. The problem is not "summation", any nincompoop can add, it's what is realistically and fiscally probable given the constraints. And you need to understand that. Unless roman does a massive u turn and opens up his cheque book, the club says "fuck ffp" and disregards the finances like in 05-08, it's not going to happen.

If you are still unconvinced, please read up on what amortization is and how is works and impacts a club's financial statement.

bollocks

and so condescending

lol at posting links at me, as if I am not aware of those for ages

you are 100% full of shite

your entire tosh is ridiculous on its face, as you 'disappear' monies simply because they occurred (ie came in) from the previous year

it is like saying I could not buy any equities in June 2020 using funds from a billion pound sterling stock sale in June 2019

you don't have the slightest clue on financials

sorry not sorry

or

Sarri not Sarri I should say

 

 

[Atomiswave 6,072]

Im not a an accountant or anything........but if we have slagged off for 2 years regarding buys, and at the same time have sold players for shit ton, then that surely money in the bank or shall I say money in the war chest no?

 

[1905didierblue 748]

3 minutes ago, Vesper said:

bollocks

and so condescending

lol at posting links at me, as if I am not aware of those for ages

you are 100% full of shite

your entire tosh is ridiculous on its face, as you 'disappear' monies simply because they occurred (ie came in) from the previous year

it is like saying I could not buy any equities in June 2020 using funds from a billion pound sterling stock sale in June 2019

you don't have the slightest clue on financials

sorry not sorry

or

Sarri not Sarri I should say

 

 

Hhahahaha. Come on man, let's have a bet. You who have so much financial knowledge vs me who has none. 

Let's go. A 1000£ wager right here.

Time to see who is the one shitting. 

[1905didierblue 748]

1 minute ago, Atomiswave said:

Im not a an accountant or anything........but if we have slagged off for 2 years regarding buys, and at the same time have sold players for shit ton, then that surely money in the bank or shall I say money in the war chest no?

 

A. We have not slagged off for 2 years. Infact in 18/19 we had a net spend of 120+ mil. Which is offset by this summer which has a net of +100mil. So the board already prepared for this window by over spending on the likes of pulisic. 

B. We are not even a profitable organization. If we made "profits" it would normally go towards the settling of our 1B debt, but not sure how they do it at the club (not that we have many profits to show). In the last 5 years till 17/18 we have a cumulative 6mil£ of net profit despite curbing on our spending and selling really well. Which shows that our wages and amortized values (basically our expenses) are still too high. 

 

[Atomiswave 6,072]

3 minutes ago, 1905didierblue said:

A. We have not slagged off for 2 years. Infact in 18/19 we had a net spend of 120+ mil. Which is offset by this summer which has a net of +100mil. So the board already prepared for this window by over spending on the likes of pulisic. 

B. We are not even a profitable organization. If we made "profits" it would normally go towards the settling of our 1B debt, but not sure how they do it at the club (not that we have many profits to show). In the last 5 years till 17/18 we have a cumulative 6mil£ of net profit despite curbing on our spending and selling really well. Which shows that our wages and amortized values (basically our expenses) are still too high. 

 

No I used it as an examlpe.......and I may be mistaken but we have no debt no? Didnt Roman clean that out years ago?

[1905didierblue 748]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/the-set-pieces-blog/2016/aug/24/transfer-window-market-myths

Read the last part. "Net spend" is a simplistic thing for us fans. It literally means nothing, it's just easier to understand and explain. 

Read about amortization (which is apparently shit 😂)

[Vesper 29,012]

13 minutes ago, 1905didierblue said:

Hhahahaha. Come on man, let's have a bet. You who have so much financial knowledge vs me who has none. 

Let's go. A 1000£ wager right here.

Time to see who is the one shitting. 

I am NOT a goddamn man

and you clearly have no clue about what a rolling window is in regards to FFP

I also am ONLY dealing with transfer fees in and out

in terms of balancing the books (especially players year over year salary load) I would need to have full access to the club's financials to give a down to the penny full accounting when you factor in wages (all staff, not just players), insurance, and other operating expenses such as all our physical plants, etc (not to mention revenues from ticket sales, lux box sales (both of those being shit due to our ageing stadium), image rights, merch sales, sponsorship fees coming in, telly revenues, cup, euro comp, and other league generated revenues etc)

DONE

WITH

THIS