Politics & Stuff

[Fulham Broadway 17,305]

Well the 350m a week going to the NHS Johnson promised is now just over 112 billion. Maybe its going to towards the 40 new hospitals.....and not tory donors, but somehow I doubt it

[cosmicway 1,333]

7 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Well the 350m a week going to the NHS Johnson promised is now just over 112 billion. Maybe its going to towards the 40 new hospitals.....and not tory donors, but somehow I doubt it

When god wanted to give brains to the Tories the angels were on strike.

Edited June 29, 2023 by cosmicway

[Fulham Broadway 17,305]

GoFund me set up by far right politician, for police officer who shot Nahel raises more than €700,000

That will ensure more rioting tonight then.....

[cosmicway 1,333]

The fuzz are nutcases.
Twenty years ago this thing happened:
I was in the car of a friend architect who wanted to collect some plans from a drawing office.
The place was next to a small circular park and as there was no parking space my friend calls the man of the drawing office by cell phone and asks him to just drop outside and pass the plans.
He was going round and round the park and the other one said "ok - in five minutes I 'm coming outside".
Suddenly a horn blasts and we find ourselves surounded by fuzz pointing guns at us.
So I keep calm and step outside and say to them "what the fcuk are you doing ? you are not even positioned correctly - you will shoot one another".
Then one of them replies "sorry but an old lady phoned us saying your car is suspicious ..." !

[Vesper 30,119]

[Vesper 30,119]

[Fernando 6,585]

Nato summit: Allies refuse to give Ukraine timeframe on joining

• Nato states have said Ukraine can join the military alliance "when allies agree and conditions are met" after President Volodymyr Zelensky criticised the "absurd" delay to accession.

   

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66167616

[Vesper 30,119]

[Vesper 30,119]

this is terrifying

and it is only going to get worse as the tech rapidly advances

 

[Vesper 30,119]

Poorest Region of America - What It Really Looks Like 🇺🇸

😕

[manpe 10,861]

On 16/07/2023 at 20:42, Vesper said:

this is terrifying

and it is only going to get worse as the tech rapidly advances

 

Parents who post public pictures or videos of their children on the internet are retards, long before AI was even a thing. I feel sorry for the upcoming generations.

[Vesper 30,119]

Students at Florida public schools will now learn that Black people benefitted from slavery https://archive.li/XGOg8 https://floridaphoenix.com/2023/07/19/do-not-for-the-love-of-god-tell-kids-that-slavery-was-beneficial/ Students at Florida public schools will now learn that Black people benefitted from slavery because it taught them skills. This change is part of the African American history standards the State Board of Education approved at a Wednesday meeting. The description of slavery as beneficial is not the only grievance parents, teachers, education advocates and politicians had with the new standards. People speaking at the Wednesday meeting generally called out the diluting and omissions of history. For example, instruction at the elementary school level is largely limited to identifying famous Black people, and high school teachers will talk about the “acts of violence perpetrated by African Americans” at the 1920 Ocoee Massacre, in which a white mob killed at least 30 Black people. “Please table this rule and revise it to make sure that my history our history is being told factually and completely, and please do not, for the love of God, tell kids that slavery was beneficial because I guarantee you it most certainly was not,” said Kevin Parker, a community member. Though the public testimony period lasted over an hour, most of the people objected to the adoption of the standard, with supporters of it waving from their seats. Paul Burns, the chancellor of K-12 public schools, defended the standards, denying that they referred to slavery as beneficial. “Our standards are factual, objective standards that really teach the good, the bad and the ugly,” he said. Board member Kelly Garcia upheld the standards and said that none of the backlash she read about them before the meeting pointed to specific concerns. A coalition of Black leaders and community groups — Florida Education Association, FL’s NAACP and The Black History Project, Inc. and Equal Ground — sent a letter to the board on Monday in opposition to the standards.

[Fulham Broadway 17,305]

On 18/07/2023 at 14:18, Vesper said:

Poorest Region of America - What It Really Looks Like 🇺🇸

😕

Great documentary - this is the free market, inevitable inequality exists

[Vesper 30,119]

Byelection results paint ominous picture for Tories despite Uxbridge win

Conservatives avoided a 3-0 defeat but face a daunting task if they are to retain an overall majority at next election

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/byelection-results-paint-ominous-picture-tories-despite-uxbridge-win

In the end the byelection scoreline was 2-1 to the opposition; a Labour triumph in Selby and Ainsty and a Liberal Democrat victory in Somerton and Frome, and a consolation win for the Conservatives in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. On the surface it looks like something for everyone, but taken together, the results paint a truly ominous picture for the Conservatives.

The swing to Labour in Selby and Ainsty was a monster 23.7%. This is the second-highest swing to the main opposition in any government seat since 1945, with only the 1994 landslide in Dudley West (29.1%) being larger.

It is a historically terrible result for a government, and correspondingly an amazing one for a principal opposition party. There may be one or two excuses for the Conservatives – many electors will not have been sympathetic to Nigel Adams’ reasons for resigning, the organisation may have become complacent, turnout was sharply down – but these are not enough to take away from the scale of the verdict on the government.

There have been several massive swings to the Lib Dems in recent years – Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, Tiverton and Honiton – so Somerton and Frome does not tell us much that is new despite the big Lib Dem victory.

Selby and Ainsty shows Labour is capable of winning big, and that tactical voting is working consistently against the Conservatives. However, Uxbridge and South Ruislip has a certain amount to show us about the politics of outer London and the limits of the patience of the electorate during a cost of living crisis.

Uxbridge seems to be a jinxed constituency for Labour. This result makes it three times – December 1972, July 1997 and now July 2023 – that it has fallen short of the polling and expectations.

The third time was not the charm for Labour, and Frank Beswick (1945-59) and John Ryan (1966-70) remain the only non-Tory MPs for the constituency. Big byelections attract minor party and independent candidates, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip was no exception. There were two independent candidates standing in opposition to the London mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) who polled 394 votes between them, but the Conservatives ran by far the most successful single-issue anti- Ulez campaign.

Their new MP Steve Tuckwell’s victory speech was about London politics rather than a defence of the Sunak government. There can be no doubt that Ulez enabled the Tories to run an anti-incumbent campaign that turned out enough of their vote to squeak home.

The Uxbridge result will cause short-term problems for Labour. Their candidate, Danny Beales, had already expressed reservations about the implementation of Ulez during the campaign. Dropping the change to the scheme would fit in with the cautious approach of the national leadership and be a gesture of listening to voters in a cost of living crisis. This is not the first Ulez election – Labour performed poorly against the Conservatives in the May local elections in places just outside London, such as Dartford and Harlow, where it was an issue.

However, Khan regards clean air as a vital climate and public health issue, and can hope that the politics of it will settle down after August when many people realise it will not affect them. Labour campaigners also pointed to the lack of a “retail offer” – a simple promise to improve people’s lives that would enable the conversation to move on from Ulez, and some on the left blame the national leadership’s lack of ambition. Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be a stress test for how well the anti-Tory vote holds up in the face of a vigorous campaign.

The longer-term dilemma is for the Conservatives. Going all-in on Ulez was enough to stave off defeat in Uxbridge, and the Tories will be tempted to go further down the road to campaigning as the motorists’ party, even at the cost of their own net zero transition policies and their long-term future with younger voters.

The Conservatives will find it hard to replicate the anti-incumbent technique outside London or Wales, and there are only a handful of other constituencies that resemble Uxbridge electorally or demographically (and the Uxbridge swing is big enough to take out some of them).

The problem the Tories have is that there are large numbers of constituencies that are a bit like Selby and Ainsty or Somerton and Frome. Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire is a mixture of small towns, commuter villages and some countryside, neither poor nor affluent. It has elements of “red wall” and “middle England” and a big swing here has wide implications. The Uxbridge result might caution us against expecting too many Labour advances into new territory in 2024, but Selby and Ainsty suggests Labour is on course to rebuild the electoral coalition that previously brought it victory. Somerton and Frome was part of a swathe of rural and small-town former Lib Dem seats in the south-west that seemed like extinct volcanoes after the coalition government and Brexit. If these seats are in flux, the Conservatives face a daunting task if they are to retain an overall majority.

The swings since 2019 look as if they are all over the place – 29% to the Lib Dems in Somerton and Frome, 24% to Labour in Selby and Ainsty, and only 7% to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

But from a longer perspective it looks a lot clearer. It is less dangerous to prognosticate on the basis of three byelections in very different types of seat than it is for a single byelection. In 1997 the Lib Dems gained Somerton and Frome by 130 votes – in 2023 they gained it by 11,008. In 1997 Labour gained the Selby constituency by 3,836 – in 2023, on less favourable boundaries, Labour gained by 4,161. And in 1997 the Conservatives held Uxbridge by 724 votes; in 2023 they held a somewhat more Tory version of the seat by 495 votes. These results, allowing for the Lib Dems’ winning ways in byelections, show the level and distribution of the parties’ support is a bit worse for the Conservatives than it was in 1997. The Brexit realignment? Left on economics, right on culture?

Gone like tears in rain.

 

[cosmicway 1,333]

On 22/07/2023 at 03:35, Vesper said:

Byelection results paint ominous picture for Tories despite Uxbridge win

Conservatives avoided a 3-0 defeat but face a daunting task if they are to retain an overall majority at next election

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/byelection-results-paint-ominous-picture-tories-despite-uxbridge-win

In the end the byelection scoreline was 2-1 to the opposition; a Labour triumph in Selby and Ainsty and a Liberal Democrat victory in Somerton and Frome, and a consolation win for the Conservatives in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. On the surface it looks like something for everyone, but taken together, the results paint a truly ominous picture for the Conservatives.

The swing to Labour in Selby and Ainsty was a monster 23.7%. This is the second-highest swing to the main opposition in any government seat since 1945, with only the 1994 landslide in Dudley West (29.1%) being larger.

It is a historically terrible result for a government, and correspondingly an amazing one for a principal opposition party. There may be one or two excuses for the Conservatives – many electors will not have been sympathetic to Nigel Adams’ reasons for resigning, the organisation may have become complacent, turnout was sharply down – but these are not enough to take away from the scale of the verdict on the government.

There have been several massive swings to the Lib Dems in recent years – Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, Tiverton and Honiton – so Somerton and Frome does not tell us much that is new despite the big Lib Dem victory.

Selby and Ainsty shows Labour is capable of winning big, and that tactical voting is working consistently against the Conservatives. However, Uxbridge and South Ruislip has a certain amount to show us about the politics of outer London and the limits of the patience of the electorate during a cost of living crisis.

Uxbridge seems to be a jinxed constituency for Labour. This result makes it three times – December 1972, July 1997 and now July 2023 – that it has fallen short of the polling and expectations.

The third time was not the charm for Labour, and Frank Beswick (1945-59) and John Ryan (1966-70) remain the only non-Tory MPs for the constituency. Big byelections attract minor party and independent candidates, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip was no exception. There were two independent candidates standing in opposition to the London mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) who polled 394 votes between them, but the Conservatives ran by far the most successful single-issue anti- Ulez campaign.

Their new MP Steve Tuckwell’s victory speech was about London politics rather than a defence of the Sunak government. There can be no doubt that Ulez enabled the Tories to run an anti-incumbent campaign that turned out enough of their vote to squeak home.

The Uxbridge result will cause short-term problems for Labour. Their candidate, Danny Beales, had already expressed reservations about the implementation of Ulez during the campaign. Dropping the change to the scheme would fit in with the cautious approach of the national leadership and be a gesture of listening to voters in a cost of living crisis. This is not the first Ulez election – Labour performed poorly against the Conservatives in the May local elections in places just outside London, such as Dartford and Harlow, where it was an issue.

However, Khan regards clean air as a vital climate and public health issue, and can hope that the politics of it will settle down after August when many people realise it will not affect them. Labour campaigners also pointed to the lack of a “retail offer” – a simple promise to improve people’s lives that would enable the conversation to move on from Ulez, and some on the left blame the national leadership’s lack of ambition. Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be a stress test for how well the anti-Tory vote holds up in the face of a vigorous campaign.

The longer-term dilemma is for the Conservatives. Going all-in on Ulez was enough to stave off defeat in Uxbridge, and the Tories will be tempted to go further down the road to campaigning as the motorists’ party, even at the cost of their own net zero transition policies and their long-term future with younger voters.

The Conservatives will find it hard to replicate the anti-incumbent technique outside London or Wales, and there are only a handful of other constituencies that resemble Uxbridge electorally or demographically (and the Uxbridge swing is big enough to take out some of them).

The problem the Tories have is that there are large numbers of constituencies that are a bit like Selby and Ainsty or Somerton and Frome. Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire is a mixture of small towns, commuter villages and some countryside, neither poor nor affluent. It has elements of “red wall” and “middle England” and a big swing here has wide implications. The Uxbridge result might caution us against expecting too many Labour advances into new territory in 2024, but Selby and Ainsty suggests Labour is on course to rebuild the electoral coalition that previously brought it victory. Somerton and Frome was part of a swathe of rural and small-town former Lib Dem seats in the south-west that seemed like extinct volcanoes after the coalition government and Brexit. If these seats are in flux, the Conservatives face a daunting task if they are to retain an overall majority.

The swings since 2019 look as if they are all over the place – 29% to the Lib Dems in Somerton and Frome, 24% to Labour in Selby and Ainsty, and only 7% to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

But from a longer perspective it looks a lot clearer. It is less dangerous to prognosticate on the basis of three byelections in very different types of seat than it is for a single byelection. In 1997 the Lib Dems gained Somerton and Frome by 130 votes – in 2023 they gained it by 11,008. In 1997 Labour gained the Selby constituency by 3,836 – in 2023, on less favourable boundaries, Labour gained by 4,161. And in 1997 the Conservatives held Uxbridge by 724 votes; in 2023 they held a somewhat more Tory version of the seat by 495 votes. These results, allowing for the Lib Dems’ winning ways in byelections, show the level and distribution of the parties’ support is a bit worse for the Conservatives than it was in 1997. The Brexit realignment? Left on economics, right on culture?

Gone like tears in rain.

 

 

The Tories have had their kicks, 10 years.
It's not a record. The record is the monster 15 Thatcher years.
But this time they also had to manage brexit. It's like Potter, Lampard and Frank O' Farrel all in one.