Realistic expectations for the second half of the season

[BlueLion. 21,491]

Yes, the first half of the season has been an utter debacle.

We are - officially - the worst defending champions in the history of English top flight football, and considering we have also failed in making a decent defence of the Capital One Cup, you can say the second half of 2015 has been a disaster. 19 points from eighteen games is relegation form, and at the current rate, we'd struggle to reach the 40 point safety marker to avoid the drop zone.

But we are still in with a shot of turning things around, in my honest opinion.

I believe there are three criteria that would constitute success from this position:

1. Qualify for European competition in 2016/17
2. Win the FA Cup
3. Win the UEFA Champions League

1. Qualify for European competition in 2016/17

Regardless of whether it is Champions or Europa League football, Chelsea have to play in a European competition. We are a European powerhouse and to be out of Europe altogether, as United were in 2014/15, would be an absolute disaster. The Europa League is unfairly maligned but represents a good opportunity for silverware, and would offer some incentive in the transfer window. Obviously, Europe's top players would rather be playing Champions League football, but it would be difficult to attract top talent without any European competition at all.

Considering how competitive the Premier League has been this season, it seems that we do have a chance of qualifying via our league position - even if that chance is microcosmic. The Europa League positions would require around 60-65 points in a typical season, and you would need around 70-75 for Champions League football. With anyone capable of winning against anyone, and the sides at the top of the table looking to finish on around 75-80 points based on their current points-per-game projections, you could argue that you may be able to knock five points off those totals to work out the going rate for this season.

That means we'd need around 70 points for Champions League football, or about 60 for Europa League football. With twenty games remaining, we have 60 points to play with. Even if we went on a decent run, reaching 70 points from our current position seems nearly impossible, but adding 40 to our current total is doable, which gives us a chance of Europa League football through our league position.

Of course, if we were to win the FA Cup or Champions League, that would also guarantee European football next season - the Champions League winners are automatically put through as first seeds for the defence of their title the following year, and the FA Cup winner enters the Europa League group stage .

2. Win the FA Cup

This is perhaps a more realistic target. As I've already suggested, winning this competition puts us automatically into the group stages of the Europa League, as well as adding a piece of silverware to the trophy cabinet. It would be easy to put all our eggs in this one basket, but with a favourable third round draw, there is the possibility that we could go far should the draw be kind to us and we eventually play ourselves into a bit of good form.

Even if we were to stabilise ourselves in the league and finish mid-table, but still win this trophy, that would represent a brilliant rescue act - I don't know about you folks, but I'd rather finish 10th in the league and win a trophy than finish even second or third.

3. Win the UEFA Champions League

The most unlikely of the three criteria for success - or is it? Michael Ballack once famously said we'd win the Champions League when we least expected it, and he was right - and yet we're far, far worse right now than we ever were under Andre Villas-Boas. PSG represents a tough draw for the round of sixteen, but both teams are evenly matched and a good first leg in Paris could set us up for a place in the last eight.

Personally, I don't think we have a cat in hell's chance of winning this trophy, but I said the same in 2012 when we went down 3-1 to Napoli. When we lost 2-1 to Bayer Leverkusen, I didn't even think we'd get out of the group stage. We've not been brilliant in the Champions League, but we've shown resilience and we seem to be a different team entirely in European competition; one that is far tighter defensively. Stranger things have happened, and if we really go for it, we have a small chance. No-one will want to draw us should we go through to the next round, and that has to count for something.

My personal view - I don't think there is any reason to think we can't qualify for Europe. I do not think we'll be playing Champions League football again next year, simply because we won't finish in the top four and I highly doubt we'll win the competition outright this season. But with us needing around 40-45 points in the league to qualify for the Europa League places, or with us qualifying directly if we win the FA Cup, there is cause of optimism that we can, at least, be plying our trade in some form of continental competition in 2016/17.

[Styles 9,790]

Can't see us finishing any higher than 8th.

[didierforever 7,349]

Win the FA cup pretty much has us qualifying for european competition, so for me, THAT should be no.1 priority.

The league should be treated as a training ground for next season. Baba, zouma, RLC are a must. Dont even get the point of starting iva, JT/GC and cesc ahead of these guys.

Top 4 is gone. TOP 6 is gone. Need to accept the reality instead of deluding ourselves. One thing that surely needs to be stopped is playing players according to their CVs.

[BlueLion. 21,491]

Win the FA cup pretty much has us qualifying for european competition, so for me, THAT should be no.1 priority.

The league should be treated as a training ground for next season. Baba, zouma, RLC are a must. Dont even get the point of starting iva, JT/GC and cesc ahead of these guys.

Top 4 is gone. TOP 6 is gone. Need to accept the reality instead of deluding ourselves. One thing that surely needs to be stopped is playing players according to their CVs.

I totally agree.

We are 13 points off fourth, but we won't make that gap up on current evidence.

Similarly, we are 10 points off a Europa League position. That is "doable" within reason, to some extent, but if we win the FA Cup then that points difference is irrelevant.

We can achieve some degree of success from this position. We have to: we can't afford to stagnate as a club. Even Europa League is better than nothing.

[Laylabelle 9,296]

If we can our act together we could get Europa spot but it's going to be hard given the quality of the teams above us and our at the moment lack of.be very hard

No chance in champions league.be surprised if get past next stage but that may not be a bad thing as less games to play

Reckon we could do Fa cup.There for anyone and all about underdogs which is us :-D

Just want to see us finish top half!that and not lose many more games..

[Iggy Doonican 4,186]

Big problems for the next couple of years I'm afraid. No European football and a team that has to be broken up as soon as possible. Out Ivan, Costa, Fabregas, Cahill, Terry, Oscar, Mikel, Pedro, Ramires, Matic. To be replaced by a mixture of transfers and young hungry kids. The proposed Bridge redevelopment could be the East Stand fiasco from the 70's happening again. Crowds could dwindle we are advertising on the radio about ticket availability for the Scunthorpe game this could be a regular thing if we are a mid table team.

The move to Wembley has me worried we could quite easily get smaller crowds then we currently get at the Bridge which would be fucking embarrassing and make us a laughing stock for other fans especially Tottenham. Ok I'm posting a worse case scenario here but I am genuinely worried. I've seen us shoot ourselves in the foot so many times in the past it's almost in the clubs D.N.A.

[LDN Blue 7,903]

Here's the thing guys,

Do we even want Europa? Lets rewind a little bit to when United crashed out the CL last time and ended up crashing out of the Europa too. They put all their concentration on the league and finishing back in the top 4 that they did so with relative ease.

Liverpool, in their title chasing year with Suarez, were knocked out the Europa League pretty early. Had it not been for us, ironically, they probably would have gone on to win the title that year.

So as bad as it sounds, if we don't finish top 4, I'd rather we finished 9th (just to be safe, because these days even 8th somehow gets you into the EL )

[BlueLion. 21,491]

Here's the thing guys,

Do we even want Europa? Lets rewind a little bit to when United crashed out the CL last time and ended up crashing out of the Europa too. They put all their concentration on the league and finishing back in the top 4 that they did so with relative ease.

Liverpool, in their title chasing year with Suarez, were knocked out the Europa League pretty early. Had it not been for us, ironically, they probably would have gone on to win the title that year.

So as bad as it sounds, if we don't finish top 4, I'd rather we finished 9th (just to be safe, because these days even 8th somehow gets you into the EL )

I think so. It's another route into the CL and European football is a must for the club to be self-sustaining from a financial point of view. No European football can mean anywhere between three and eight less matchdays at Stamford Bridge a season. Okay, we've got the TV money, but we're trying to buy a new stadium, effectively. Every penny counts! I see your point though. If Europa League football wasn't on a Thursday night, it wouldn't be so much of a distraction.

[lucio 5,394]

i'l take the manager waking up, and finally fielding viable teams, would be nice

[LDN Blue 7,903]

I think so. It's another route into the CL and European football is a must for the club to be self-sustaining from a financial point of view. No European football can mean anywhere between three and eight less matchdays at Stamford Bridge a season. Okay, we've got the TV money, but we're trying to buy a new stadium, effectively. Every penny counts! I see your point though. If Europa League football wasn't on a Thursday night, it wouldn't be so much of a distraction.

I guess, but I mean when you're owned by a billionaire you do have the safety of not necessarily needing Europe's money. Yeah, winning the EL does now get you into the CL, but there's no reason we can't do that by the conventional way of getting 4th. I still think it's an overplayed state of mind to think you can't attract big names if you spend one season out of it. It's more true if you can't get back in. But United spent a season out and are back in. Albeit they've got their own problems now, but whether they dump Van Gaal now or in a few weeks, they'll still end up in the top 4.

For all the EL is in terms of a European competition, the TV payouts are piss poor anyway. Long travels accompanied with a Football Association that doesn't seem to be willing to help with that simply means added fatigue. You just have to look at the stats of when teams enter the EL in correlation with their decline in the league table.

[Fulham Broadway 16,392]

Tbh have no expectations, we just have to keep chipping away to get points now. You will see the players raise their game in the cup competitions, especially the CL, so anything is possible.

Yes, I still hear the clarion call 'play the kids!' Seriously this aint gonna happen whether we're 10 points clear or hovering above the drop zone.

Rebuild in the Summer, but for now its a new manager, new chapter, clean slates for the players

We go again, the past is the past.

[Special Juan 27,103]

We won't win fuck all, we will end up about 12th and right now I would take just staying up.

Still worried.

[11Drogba 2,000]

I did not like the team selection and substitutions today but there were also positives and I believe with Hiddink the number of positives will increase in time. I have no doubt that we'll be in top ten at the end of the season. To qualify for Europa league we need one or two signings.

[Ossie the King 634]

Tbh have no expectations, we just have to keep chipping away to get points now. You will see the players raise their game in the cup competitions, especially the CL, so anything is possible.

Yes, I still hear the clarion call 'play the kids!' Seriously this aint gonna happen whether we're 10 points clear or hovering above the drop zone.

Rebuild in the Summer, but for now its a new manager, new chapter, clean slates for the players

We go again, the past is the past.

That's pretty much where I am mate. We grind from game to game, we hope for the best but we're not building towards anything. I don't think the club has a clue where they go from here.

We go through the season looking to win each game, but we're going to watch a lot of poor football I think. If we survive we're in the same position as if we'd kept José come the summer.

Have no expectations and you might not be disappointed.

[Sideshow Luiz 2,310]

I'd love to see us go on a bit of a run. Europe is gone next season unless we win the FA Cup. I'm still hopeful of a top 10 finish.

What I'd love, is a run of matches to build on for next season.

[CurlyHairLikeLuiz 1,625]

We're going to finish mid table this season - we simply can't make up so much ground when all the teams above us are at the strength they are.

We can get Europe if we win the CL or the FA Cup. Not at all impossible.

[Blue Colored Sky 1,807]

My personal view - I don't think there is any reason to think we can't qualify for Europe. I do not think we'll be playing Champions League football again next year, simply because we won't finish in the top four and I highly doubt we'll win the competition outright this season. But with us needing around 40-45 points in the league to qualify for the Europa League places, or with us qualifying directly if we win the FA Cup, there is cause of optimism that we can, at least, be plying our trade in some form of continental competition in 2016/17.

Wish there was still Intertoto Cup, haha !

[Blue Colored Sky 1,807]

I guess, but I mean when you're owned by a billionaire you do have the safety of not necessarily needing Europe's money. Yeah, winning the EL does now get you into the CL, but there's no reason we can't do that by the conventional way of getting 4th. I still think it's an overplayed state of mind to think you can't attract big names if you spend one season out of it. It's more true if you can't get back in. But United spent a season out and are back in. Albeit they've got their own problems now, but whether they dump Van Gaal now or in a few weeks, they'll still end up in the top 4.

For all the EL is in terms of a European competition, the TV payouts are piss poor anyway. Long travels accompanied with a Football Association that doesn't seem to be willing to help with that simply means added fatigue. You just have to look at the stats of when teams enter the EL in correlation with their decline in the league table.

1. Yes, the Europe League prize money is nothing comparing with CL but it is still some money in budget plus there could be some obligations with sponsorhip contracts to get bonus money when playing in Europe. I remember there was big case that when Chelsea won't qualify for 2012/13 Champions League season they not only lose prize money but some sponsorship too.

2. Less matchdays at Stamford Bridge. Realistically at least 5 less games, that's a lot of money.

3. I don't necessary agree that there is correlation between playing in Europe League and league form. If you're good you're good. Borussia Dortmund is prime example of this season. Besides since there will be Premier League matches next season on Friday, there's even more chance that you're playing games every 3 days regardless if it is Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday in Europe. Last time we played in EL there wasn't much of a problem in reaching league objective and we had piss poor squad then with limited options.

4. Coefficent. We will drop to the second pot/third pot without any European competition next season as 2016/17 season will replace our winning 2011/12 season.

5. Prestige. Chelsea outside of Europe. Really ?