Enzo Maresca Thread

[Vesper 29,384]

Chelsea’s big-game mentality has deserted them – just look at their record against the top teams

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6207167/2025/03/17/Chelsea-arsenal-results-mentality/

It may not be what some of their fans want to hear but Chelsea’s problems run deeper than the tactics of head coach Enzo Maresca. When it comes to the big games, this squad have a serious belief issue.

The underwhelming display in their 1-0 away defeat against Arsenal on Sunday was the latest chapter in a series of disappointing performances from Maresca’s side since late December. Even the four straight wins which preceded Sunday’s game, against Southampton, Leicester and Copenhagen (twice) were unconvincing.

Maresca certainly has questions to answer about what is going on right now, and judging by the reception he got from some in the away end at the Emirates Stadium yesterday, they want to hear some better ones, even though Chelsea are fourth in the Premier League with nine games to go.

Yet the sign of a very good team, one capable of not only qualifying for the Champions League via a top four/five finish but also competing to win Europe’s top club competition itself, is their record against fellow top sides. We are talking Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City (despite their downturn this season). Manchester United and Tottenham have to be included too, even though they are struggling in the table’s bottom half this season, because they also have intense rivalries with the league’s other big fish.

When Chelsea were at their best during the Roman Abramovich era in the first two decades of this century, competing for and winning Premier League titles (five of them) on a regular basis, victories over that quintet were commonplace. Chelsea would go to places like Arsenal and most people in the crowd, let alone the 22 out on the pitch, would know what the result would probably be. And if it wasn’t an away victory, it would at least be a draw.

But those days are a distant memory now and Chelsea’s record in these fixtures since the Todd Boehly-Clearlake consortium took over the club in May 2022 makes for bad reading.

 

Reece James, third right, clashes with Arsenal’s Jurrien Timber (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

If it wasn’t for Cole Palmer scoring the latest winner in Premier League history against Manchester United in the 101st minute back in  April (Chelsea went into stoppage time 3-2 down that day), they would have no wins against United, Liverpool, Arsenal and City in all competitions over 26 matches.

Even if you add Tottenham, who Chelsea have dominated results-wise for over 30 years, whether they were any good or not, it does not look a great deal better.

To highlight how worrying this trend is, just look at the table below.

TEAM	PLAYED	WON	DRAWN	LOST	GOALS FOR	GOALS AGAINST
Manchester City	9	0	2	7	6	19
Arsenal	6	0	2	4	4	13
Liverpool	6	0	3	3	3	8
Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	11
Tottenham	5	3	1	1	12	8

As it also shows, Chelsea have been outscored by every one of these teams during this period, apart from Spurs. This simply is not good enough.

Also, if you just consider Premier League matches, they have only three wins in their last 20 away games against teams who have started the day above them in the table. Chelsea last bucked that trend against Bournemouth in September.

To be fair, some of Chelsea’s struggles against these opponents began before the change of ownership. Chelsea last won at Arsenal in August 2021 — the same year they also had their most recent triumph over Liverpool at Anfield. They also beat City three times in 2021, at the Etihad in the Premier League, at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final, and in Porto in the Champions League final. They have failed to beat City home or away since.

There were some promising signs that the gap was narrowing under Mauricio Pochettino last season with the two draws against City and that dramatic success over United. Maresca can also point to the first half of this campaign, where Chelsea genuinely looked good in draws with Arsenal and United. After the 2-1 loss away to Liverpool in October, their coach Arne Slot conceded Chelsea were the only team his men had faced this season who had been “better than us” — well, until they faced Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League’s round of 16 this month, anyway.

There is October’s 2-1 home win against Newcastle, while December saw a 3-0 triumph over Aston Villa, also as Stamford Bridge, and coming from two goals down to beat Spurs away, to offer some encouragement. And the hope is that Palmer, Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke will all be back after this 17-day break for international matches and the FA Cup quarter-finals.

But overall, there is still something missing; that ability to face the toughest tests and come out on top. A mental block.

The people now running Chelsea have deliberately chosen a transfer policy which focuses on signing youth and potential, and it means they now have the youngest team in the Premier League. But playing such a long-term strategy, waiting for players to develop into the finished article you’ve envisioned, is coming at a cost.

 

Marc Cucurella cuts a frustrated figure at the Emirates Stadium (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Chelsea looked beaten from before the kick-off on their previous trip to the Emirates back in April, and lost 5-0. It felt the same on Sunday, especially in an opening half-hour when they did not have a single touch in the opposition penalty area and the home side dominated. To Chelsea’s credit, they managed to stem the Arsenal attacking tide but they still never looked like scoring.

Now, they were without key attacking players, Palmer and Jackson in particular. Romeo Lavia, so impressive in that loss to Liverpool at Anfield, was a late substitute having just returned from two months out with his latest injury. But Chelsea in their pomp knew how to cope with such setbacks and get the result anyway.

When asked by The Athletic if he thinks this is a problem he inherited and has to overcome, Maresca did appear to admit something is missing. He replied: “If the results say that… what I can say (is) between the first game against Arsenal (November’s 1-1 draw at the Bridge) and today’s game, to be honest, I don’t see a big difference between us and them.

“This means we are… for me, since I arrived… I have the feeling we are on the right path and we are very close. We need just that step forward to compete in these kind of games. That step comes finishing in the top four, top five, Champions League spot.”

Nobody can dispute that the August 2023 addition of Moises Caicedo from Brighton & Hove Albion has improved Chelsea’s midfield, but you can sense a bit of frustration over their struggle to make that final step. Speaking to Sky Sports afterwards, he said: “The team is good, the team is working hard to win the games. We want to show character, we want to play our best football and we want to win games like this.”

The topic is relevant because, with just five points between themselves in fourth and Bournemouth in 10th, the race for Champions League qualification looks like going to the final day of the season.

Chelsea’s nine remaining fixtures include meetings with Tottenham, Liverpool and United. To return to the Champions League next season, they simply have to add more numbers to the wins column in their biggest fixtures.

[Special Juan 27,608]

The stats and records on file for us right now make horrendous reading. 

Like the article alludes to, the shite performances were we won are the most scary thing for me, because the teams we faced are shit, but so are the performances from us.

I really cannot see it changing any time soon

[Fernando 6,522]

I would still want him to continue. 

I rather continue and fix the squad this summer then rinse and repeat with someone new and try the same players. 

 

[Special Juan 27,608]

The rinse and repeat will always happen at this club, no matter what they say or whatever media briefing is thrown out there backing him, if things don't change I will be very good money he is gone before the end of the season. If we come back after the internationals and we lose 3 he is gone, there is no sticking with process it simply doesn't happen now at this club. 

If we are splitting hairs I am more worried about the two cunts upstairs Winstanley and Stewart than I am of Maresca, and bare in mind I am seriously worried about Maresca

[milka 3,373]

 

[TheHulk 2,034]

This guy is hyping himself up.

[nyikolajevics 2,605]

18 minutes ago, TheHulk said:

This guy is hyping himself up.

Just Enzo bossing Instagram after a few shots of Limoncello.

[Reddish-Blue 2,424]

5 hours ago, TheHulk said:

This guy is hyping himself up.

By the end of the season it'll say:
6th in the Premier League
Did not win Conference League
Did well in FIFA Club World Cup

[Vesper 29,384]

GOAL's predicted 2024-25 Premier League table

https://www.goal.com/en-gb/lists/man-city-and-newcastle-to-make-it-but-Chelsea-to-miss-out-goal-predicts-the-premier-league-s-top-fiv/blt55bbf9362afe4629

[Vesper 29,384]

Chelsea’s run-in: Where the bid for Champions League qualification will be won or lost

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6238859/2025/03/31/Chelsea-premier-league-run-in/

We have arrived at crunch time in Chelsea’s Premier League season.

Over the next nine weeks, and as many league fixtures, their bid to qualify for the Champions League via a top-four/five finish will be decided.

Chelsea are fourth but just five points separate them and Bournemouth in 10th. With the chance to win the UEFA Conference League also on their agenda — they face Legia Warsaw in a two-legged quarter-final — the success of Enzo Maresca’s first campaign is on a knife edge.

An indication of the head coach’s mood came last week when he cancelled a scheduled day off for the senior players after being left unimpressed by what he had seen in a training drill involving the club’s under-21 team.

A few days earlier, the Italian posted a message for supporters on his official Instagram account. It read: “The hard work never stops — even during international weeks. 4th in the Premier League, Quarter Finals of the UEFA Conference League, FIFA Club World Cup (which starts in June). Together with our fans all over the world. Let’s keep The Blue Flag Flying High!”

After mixed messaging since he arrived in June, Maresca clarified in February that getting into the Champions League is a major target. Chelsea have not qualified for Europe’s top club competition since the Todd Boehly-Clearlake consortium took over in May 2022. Playing in the Champions League would improve their financial position and reassure key players, such as Cole Palmer, that the team is heading in the right direction.

The question is: can they do it? Their optimism has plummeted over the past few months. Nine points in 10 matches from December 22 to February 22 is a major reason for that, plus the quality of performances has dipped. The meek surrender during the 1-0 defeat at Arsenal before the international break remains fresh in everyone’s minds.

Yet by occupying fourth spot, it is still in their hands. And with England on course to finish on top of UEFA’s coefficient table, Champions League qualification looks set to go down to fifth place in the Premier League (one extra place is granted for the top two countries in the coefficient standings based on teams’ performances in UEFA competitions).

The problem is Chelsea’s run-in. It is hard — particularly in May when Chelsea have home games against Liverpool and Manchester United and their final two away matches at Champions League qualification rivals Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest.

This table using Opta’s Power Rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — suggests Maresca’s side have the sixth-toughest fixture list (teams are ordered based on difficulty, easier to harder) out of all the Premier League clubs.

Chelsea’s record against the teams they will face acts as a further gauge of the task facing them. Here’s a key statistic for each fixture:

• Tottenham (h) — lost just once at home against them since 1990 (39 games all competitions)
• Brentford (a) — drawn on their last two visits
• Ipswich Town (h) — last lost at home against them in 1979 but were beaten 2-0 at Portman Road on December 30
• Fulham (a) — won five of the last six at Craven Cottage but were beaten 2-1 by Fulham on December 26 at Stamford Bridge
• Everton (h) — Everton’s last win at Stamford Bridge was in November 1994
• Liverpool (h) — Chelsea have not beaten Liverpool in last 13 meetings (all competitions).
• Newcastle (a) — Chelsea have lost eight of their past 12 visits to St James’ Park (all competitions)
• Manchester United (h) — Palmer’s stoppage-time heroics last season ended a run of seven home games without a victory (all competitions)
• Nottingham Forest (a) — Chelsea won 3-2 at the City Ground in May last season as part of late run to qualify for Europe

When Chelsea lost 2-0 at Ipswich Town on December 30, Opta’s league prediction model — which estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position by using the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), betting market odds and Opta’s power rankings and simulating the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times — still rated their chances of finishing in the top four at 78.5 per cent. But as you can see below, that figure has dropped to just over 26 per cent and they regard sixth as being their most likely final position.

Final position	Percentage
First	0
Second	0.3
Third	10.1
Fourth	16.1
Fifth	20.2
Sixth	22.2
Seventh	15.1
Eighth	9.2
Ninth	4.2
Tenth	1.9

With this in mind, here is a table of how Opta see the top 10 finishing up with the number of expected points (Opta’s findings go into decimal places so final points totals have been rounded up or down to the nearest whole number accordingly). Chelsea are on 49 points and it is predicted they will pick up just another 14.

Team	Expected points
Liverpool	89
Arsenal	77
Nottingham Forest	68
Manchester City	66
Newcastle United	64
Chelsea	63
Brighton	61
Aston Villa	58
Bournemouth	57
Fulham	56

These calculations are just a guide. Besides, one of the reasons Chelsea suffered a decline is due to injuries to key players. Reece James, Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia all started playing again before the international break. Striker Nicolas Jackson (hamstring), winger Noni Madueke (hamstring) and Palmer (provided a scare after missing the Arsenal match with a muscular problem) resumed training last week. So there is the prospect of Chelsea going into these games at almost full strength and rediscovering the form that took them to second before Christmas.

Chelsea have more games at home (five) than away (four). They are on a five-game winning streak at Stamford Bridge and are unbeaten there in 2025 (Bournemouth are the only side to secure a draw). In contrast, they have gone seven league games without a victory on their travels.

Should Chelsea get in the Champions League, there will be some cause to celebrate. If not, the 2024-25 Premier League season will have to be regarded as a missed opportunity.

[Vesper 29,384]

The Premier League returns: Our writers’ verdicts on the end-of-season run-in

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6243918/2025/04/01/premier-league-top-five-title-relegation/

 

 

If a week is a long time in football, then a break of more than two weeks? Well, that’s simply an eternity.

But if you’ve found yourself longing for the warm embrace of England’s top flight over the lonely days when international football, FA Cup quarter-finals and children being perched atop telephone boxes have dominated the agenda, then fear not. The Premier League is back.

Starting with three games on Tuesday night, we have a full slate of midweek action to get our teeth into.

So now is as good a time as ever for a discussion. Who holds the edge in the race for European qualification? What are the plotlines that will dominate proceedings between now and May? And who are the unsung heroes of the season?

Our writers Mark Carey, Oliver Kay, Caoimhe O’Neill, Carl Anka, Jacob Whitehead and Tim Spiers chew the fat as the Premier League returns.

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What are you most excited about seeing when the Premier League returns?

Mark Carey: I’m simply looking forward to the crescendo of the season. The final stretch is when champions are crowned and relegation candidates are confirmed — what more drama can you ask for?

Yes, we are already pretty confident of who those respective teams are, but dig a little deeper and it is still all to play for in the quest for European football next season. After so much discussion, debate and deliberations throughout the campaign, now is the time to see those crucial moments play out. Might there even be a twist in the tale? I cannot wait for the action to unfold.

Oliver Kay: Are we saying the title race is done and dusted? Liverpool are 12 points clear but there are still nine games to go. They have a Merseyside derby against a revitalised Everton at Anfield on Wednesday night, which should be a great occasion and a significant test. Liverpool have only won the league title once in 35 years — and that ended up being celebrated behind closed doors because of the Covid-19 pandemic — so even if it ends up being a procession, I don’t think it’s something to be blase about. There could yet be some tension along the way.

Caoimhe O’Neill: Football stadiums in the sunshine. Is there a better place to be than a match when the sun is shining? It warms the soul, even watching from an armchair. In England, blue skies are never guaranteed, so aside from the weather, the pressure is on Liverpool to wrap up the title. The race for European football will be topsy-turvy, which should keep us picking popcorn out of our teeth until the end of May.

 

A sun-drenched Stamford Bridge – the collector’s item that could be on its way (Clive Rose/Getty Images)

Carl Anka: The Champions League race has the most appeal from a team perspective but I’m going hyperfocus on a collection of players between now and the end of the season.

Can Alexander Isak finish the season strongly at Newcastle United? Can Evan Ferguson reignite the fire on loan at West Ham United and play back-to-back 90-minute games? Will Chelsea’s experimentation of Reece James in central midfield come good? Will Luke Shaw or Mason Mount come back at Mancheter United? When Bukayo Saka returns from his hamstring surgery, will he still have the same explosiveness? (I hope so!) Which team (Nottingham Forest) would make a good fit for Ipswich Town’s Liam Delap this summer?

Jacob Whitehead: The chase for the top four — or more realistically, given UEFA coefficients, top five. If Forest hold on, it will be one of the most surprising storylines of recent seasons — but the stakes are high across the top of the league.

Chelsea are slumping badly and the hierarchy’s faith in Enzo Maresca may waver. Newcastle’s spending will hinge on whether they can play Champions League football. Tenth-placed Bournemouth are only four points back from fifth-placed Manchester City — half the league are eyeing European football.

Tim Spiers: With the title and relegation places surely already sewn up, there’s intrigue about teams and matches instead. This week throws up the Merseyside derby and, given their form before the international break, perhaps a rare opportunity for Everton to win at Anfield and an even rarer chance for David Moyes to win at Anfield (he’s never done it from 21 attempts).

Then there’s Chelsea versus Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday: always a keenly-fought derby with a surprising amount of needle, it is a big game for both managers. Maresca seems to be strongly admired by Chelsea’s players but less so by their supporters, and Ange Postecoglou has precious little time to prove he deserves another season in charge.

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How do you think history will look back on this Liverpool team if they do go on to win the title?

Carey: History will arguably be more favourable to Liverpool. As good as they have been in Arne Slot’s first season in charge, there has been an underlying narrative that their success has come from other teams not providing a sufficient challenge to their title push.

The forensic lens on teams has never been sharper. When that lens softens over the years, fans will only remember the name on the trophy. Liverpool have put together a strong campaign and deserve their position in the table.

Kay: Usually, you would judge a title-winning side over years but this Liverpool team will look very different next season, with a summer of change ahead.

It’s also harder to evaluate a title-winning team when their competitors fall short. I wouldn’t put Slot’s Liverpool in the same elevated class as the team that won the Premier League under Jurgen Klopp in 2020 or even the side that finished just behind Manchester City a year before that. Equally, I wouldn’t put last season’s Manchester City in the same class as their earlier title-winning teams under Pep Guardiola, but that’s holding them to an exceptional standard.

The levels at the very top of the Premier League have dropped slightly over the past couple of seasons but the standard from top to bottom is extremely high, so it takes a seriously impressive effort to be as dominant as Liverpool have been. Short answer: I would probably put them on a similar level to last season’s Manchester City or Antonio Conte’s Chelsea — worthy, impressive, creditable champions, but not likely to be recalled as vintage conquerors.

O’Neill: They would be remembered as unexpected but deserved champions. The implosion of their rivals at crucial stages of the season has helped but to win a title, you still have to win a title — and who here among us expected Slot to lead his team to 12 points clear with nine games to go? Not me. Credit will be due.

Anka: This is the most volatile the top of the Premier League has been since the 2015-16 season. Slot’s men have done very well to keep on trucking when many others imploded. However, their real “legacy” might not become clear until the end of next season, and we see how they defend their title.

Liverpool have a big summer ahead to remain at the front of the pack for the next campaign (they could end up reworking their left and right flanks simultaneously). This title win could be the start of something special. If it is, we can class them in the same tier as Manuel Pellegrini’s Manchester City side of 2013-14 — good but not great in the way that Klopp’s 2019-20 side were.

 

Fired by Salah’s goals and assists, Liverpool are 12 points clear at the top of the table (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)

Whitehead: Some league winners are viewed through the lens of the manager rather than the individual. Think of Sir Alex Ferguson’s last title at Manchester United — despite Robin van Persie’s excellence, that season is predominantly remembered for Ferguson’s final glory.

For Van Persie then, read Salah now. This is not to compare Slot to Ferguson in historic achievement, but in terms of narrative, Liverpool’s head coach is the dominant storyline. Taking over from Klopp, Liverpool’s own legendary manager, before triumphing with his first attempt? Think of how 2013-14 would have been remembered if Moyes had marked his arrival at Manchester United with a league title.

Spiers: Not as a premium title-winner compared to some of the great Premier League sides, but as worthy winners and as the season of Slot and Salah, like how 2013-14 (for me, anyway) is remembered as the season of Brendan Rodgers and Luis Suarez.

That team famously fell just short, partly because of the pressure put on them by Manchester City and Chelsea. This Liverpool team have not felt a rampant challenger breathing down their neck but history is unlikely to emphasise that fact.

It may also be seen as the end of an era, not the beginning of one. One of the oldest squads in the league needs a refresh.

Which teams will finish in the top five and secure Champions League qualification for next season?

Carey: As a data analyst, I am obliged to turn to the numbers. Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest look nailed on for a Champions League place, with Opta’s predicted table (established by simulating the remaining matches hundreds of thousands of times) tipping Manchester City and Newcastle United to claim the remaining two spots.

The pair have the most straightforward fixtures remaining among the sides pushing for Europe — on paper, at least. Statistically speaking, Guardiola’s men have the easiest run-in, with Newcastle having the sixth-easiest among all Premier League sides. There might be some twists and turns along the way — but, in order, I am saying Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and Newcastle.

Kay: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, Manchester City and… despite having little enthusiasm for this team and this project, I’m going to say Chelsea.

O’Neill: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and… Newcastle. This was difficult to decide on but with the black and white pyro smoke still clinging to their nostril hairs after that special parade last weekend, Newcastle are going to finish with a flurry of wins, even with plenty of teams hot on their heels.

Anka: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and… Newcastle. A series of managers have used a League Cup triumph to put the battery in the back of their players, and they’ll finish the season strongly. That dogs-of-war midfield trio they have must be an agony to play against. Dribble passed Joelinton and he tries to suplex you.

Whitehead: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City, Newcastle. First and second feel done and dusted, while there is no evidence but entrenched dogma and underestimation that Forest will stumble. They feel like the Newcastle of two seasons ago.

Eddie Howe’s current iteration have a tough end to the season — playing at Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion and hosting Chelsea among their final four games — but should reemerge from their Carabao Cup celebrations refocused and remotivated. This is not the Manchester City we are used to but it feels like they are through the worst of it. It would surprise me if Chelsea better their results.

Spiers: Liverpool, Arsenal, City, Forest, Brighton. Chelsea’s form since December is really poor and their run-in is tough (Brentford, Fulham, Newcastle and Forest away, plus Liverpool at home), so I can envisage them dropping out. City’s fixtures are much kinder (they play none of the top seven), which leaves Brighton, Newcastle or an outlier from the chasing pack to finish fifth. Brighton and Newcastle play each other on May 4 at the Amex Stadium, which may decide it. I’ll go with the former.

Which team has the most to prove between now and the end of the season?

Carey: With the title race and relegation battle almost wrapped up, a smattering of teams have little to play for domestically in the remaining weeks. Manchester United and Spurs are two of those teams, but both must end the campaign strongly to show green shoots of recovery after torturous seasons.

For United, Ruben Amorim needs some positive examples of his 3-4-2-1 system in full operation to provide a clearer window into the long-term intentions. For Spurs, it would be a return to their high-intensity, possession-dominant style that Postecoglou had initially imposed in north London when he joined. With his job seemingly on the line, a strong finish could provide the morale boost Tottenham need.

Kay: In a way, it’s Chelsea. Everyone at Manchester City accepts they’ve had a bad season. Everyone at Manchester United accepts they have a massive rebuilding job to do. But people at Chelsea are still trying to convince themselves and the world that they’re onto a good thing.

A couple of points here or there won’t change my impression of this Chelsea ‘project’, but at least they would finally feel able to claim some minor vindication if, having spent more than £1billion ($1.3bn) in the transfer market over the past three seasons, they manage to scrape into the Champions League places (as well as win the Conference League, which is surely a given).

O’Neill: For some reason, I think it is Liverpool. They are still not confirmed as champions and are either going to make it a waltz to the finish or a bit of a clamber over the finish line. How they complete this season will go a long way in determining how we define them.

Anka: Southampton. You need to earn three more points to avoid historic humiliation. You can do it. I believe in you. (Also, let me know if any spares are going for the trip to Leicester City on May 3.)

Whitehead: It feels as if, whatever happens from here, the verdicts on Manchester United and Tottenham’s seasons have been established. United have been disappointing but Amorim will get more time, Spurs have been disappointing and Postecoglou probably won’t, but Maresca’s Chelsea future is most up in the air.

This is a facsimile of last season at Leicester. Maresca’s side scraped over the line in the Championship without turning a corner — if Chelsea continue to slump, missing out on Champions League football, the owners have already displayed their impatience.

 

Can Enzo Maresca iron out Chelsea’s flaws? (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Spiers: So many teams have underperformed, which means a few could do with proving they’re not as bad as we think they are: chiefly Southampton, who need one victory to avoid Derby County’s all-time-low Premier League points record.

Manchester City have to prove they are capable of belatedly engineering some consistency from their expensively assembled but endlessly underachieving team; ditto Chelsea, to a lesser extent. The biggest underachievers are Manchester United and Spurs, but their seasons are all about the Europa League now.

What is the most interesting plotline to follow between now and the end of the season?

Carey: I am interested to see if a dark horse can sneak into Champions League spots. It looks like Forest are already one of those but if Brighton, Bournemouth or even Fulham were to make a late dart into those top five places, it would be incredible.

It is remarkable how tight things are in the top half of the table. Five points separate Chelsea in fourth and Bournemouth in 10th — and teams are likely to take points off each other.

Kay: The biggest story of this season will be the outcome of the Premier League’s case against Manchester City and whether that outcome is a) a complete acquittal or b) a complete damnation of the club that has been English football’s dominant force over the past decade — or, more likely, c) somewhere in between — the repercussions will be far bigger than anything that has happening on the pitch.

O’Neill: Watching how the managers of the clubs chasing Europe go about their business. Many of them, including Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola, have multiple prospective clubs watching their every move closely. It will be interesting to see how that plays out and who remains in their jobs come August after a summer of headhunting.

Anka: Can Aston Villa elbow past their other top-half rivals and qualify for the Champions League? The club had a wage-to-turnover ratio hovering at 96 per cent last season, according to Deloitte’s Football Money League. Almost half the league are chasing Champions League qualification but Villa’s accounts might need it the most. It’s been an excellent season for Unai Emery’s men but a strong finish is required, or belts may be tightened in the summer.

Whitehead: I’d love to keep this answer light — but mine is the repercussions of a verdict in City’s case with the Premier League. If it drops in April or May, expect City’s fate to dominate the news agenda for weeks.

Spiers: The ongoing refereeing conspiracy against Arsenal? Who loses the Jadon Sancho tug of war? Precisely how much can the PGMOL, the refereeing governing body, balls-up the forthcoming introduction of semi-automated offside technology? Who wins the ‘used to be good but not anymore’ 13th-to-16th mini-league comprising fallen giants Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and West Ham?

But no, seriously, with the bottom three already decided, the title wrapped up and Crystal Palace finishing 12th again, the only thing that remains of real interest in the Premier League is the race for Champions League football, which is genuinely quite enthralling given there are some new teams in the mix this season.

There’s also the potential for Salah to break Erling Haaland’s Premier League scoring record in a single season — he’s on 27 with nine games left and needs to score another nine to equal Haaland’s 36. If you add Salah’s 17 assists, he could record the best individual season in the Premier League era.

Is any club in danger of being drawn into the relegation battle?

Carey: I do not expect so. The teams in the relegation zone have not done anywhere near enough to warrant survival after their promotion and, for the second season running, all three look set to go straight back down. It is a shame because the overriding narrative is that the gap between the Championship and the Premier League has become a chasm — but plenty of teams have shown that you can thrive, not just survive, in the top division. Fulham, Nottingham Forest, and Brentford were Championship teams in 2020, and all are set to have top-half Premier League finishes this season.

Kay: I don’t think so. I don’t think Ipswich and Leicester are capable of hauling back that deficit — and that’s more a reflection of the league’s rising quality than their shortcomings. If you somehow were to parachute this Ipswich team into the Premier League of, say, eight or nine years ago, never mind further back, they would be comfortably in mid-table. The problem they have — and it’s a serious problem in English football — is that the gap between the Championship and the Premier League is so big.

O’Neill: I’m sorry, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton, but you are like the horses at the Grand National whose jockeys have been unseated and are now very much on your own for the run-in. So run free with the wind in your hair and enjoy it.

 

Southampton have endured a miserable return to the top flight – and they’re not alone (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)

Anka: Nope. The 1997-98 season used to be unique as a Premier League season where all three promoted clubs went straight back down. A creeping tactical and financial instability is affecting England’s top 25 or so clubs.

Whitehead: No. Between them, Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester have a record of 14 losses and one draw from their last 15 games. A reversal of that would not be a ‘great escape’, it would be a miracle. If Wolves beat Ipswich on Saturday, even prayers to a power above would be in vain.

Spiers: Nope. Even as a pessimistic Wolves fan, it’s job done for Vitor Pereira. If Wolves don’t pick up another point in their final nine matches, on current form, neither Ipswich nor Leicester will even come close to catching them; they’ve earned a combined five points from 20 matches in 2025.

Who is your manager of the season?

Carey: Slot has made light work of his debut season but Nuno Espirito Santo’s job at Forest is remarkable. Sure, Forest have overperformed a little bit at the top end of the field — scoring 11.5 goals more than their expected goals (xG) suggests — but Nuno has imposed a style that is defensively disciplined and devastating on the counter-attack.

Given how they finished 17th last season, even pushing for the top half would have been impressive. Securing a place in the Champions League spots would be dreamland stuff, thanks to Nuno.

Kay: There are five or six managers who have had excellent seasons but it boils down to three who have impressed in very different ways: Slot, Iraola, Nuno.

There is a bit of revisionist talk about Slot and the size of the challenge he faced after taking over from Klopp at Liverpool. (Did anyone predict they would be 12 points clear at the top of the league by this stage? I certainly didn’t.) But in terms of performance vs expectations, I’m going to say Nuno at Forest — not just because he’s taken a previously relegation-threatened team to third in the Premier League but because the place was a madhouse when he arrived last season. He has done a remarkable job.

O’Neill: In reality, it is Slot — especially if he does, in his first season at Anfield, deliver Liverpool’s 20th league title and equal Manchester United’s record. Shouts to Nuno, Howe, Iraola, Fulham’s Marco Silva, Emery and Brighton’s Fabian Hurzeler, though. They have all made it a proper anyone can beat anyone league.

Anka: It’s Nuno. Forest ended up in some hot water last season for their odd activities in the transfer market but they’ve ended up ahead of the curve on what a Premier League squad needs. Nuno created a rugged team that can be lethal on the counter-attack. There will be some excellent photos of the City Ground under the Champions League lights next season.

Whitehead: It would be easy to search around for a hipster answer but if Nuno doesn’t get it for taking Forest from 17th to third, it’s difficult to know what else could justify it.

Spiers: For Slot to win the title in his debut Premier League season is extremely impressive but in judging this award, you’d have to say he did inherit a ready-made team and squad that only lost four league games last season.

Forest, on the other hand, have gone from relegation fodder to (probably) the Champions League under Nuno. His two previous standout achievements in management were taking Rio Ave to Europe for the first time in their history and Wolves to Europe for the first time in almost 40 years. He’s no one-trick pony and his incredible work this season deserves the highest recognition.

 

Nuno Espirito Santo has guided Nottingham Forest into Champions League contention (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)

Mohamed Salah looks a shoo-in for the player of the season award, so who is your unsung hero of the season?

Carey: Again, I’m going to lean on the data here but Brentford’s Mikkel Damsgaard has quietly been one of the most creative forces in the Premier League this season. His 7.1 expected assists — which measures the xG of the shot that is assisted — is bettered only by Son Heung-min, Cole Palmer and Mohamed Salah.

Damsgaard’s appreciation of space, intelligent movement, and deft passes can sometimes go unnoticed, but watch him for a full game and you can see how deserving he is of praise. Given his previous injury struggles, I am happy that he has found fitness and form. He has already played more league minutes than in any of the previous four seasons. The quality has always been there but he is showing it consistently.

Kay: How unsung are we talking? If we’re calling Salah a shoo-in for the individual awards, then that downplays the brilliance of his Liverpool team-mate Virgil van Dijk, Arsenal defender Gabriel and Newcastle forward Isak, all of whom have been outstanding. But here, we’re talking about Bryan Mbeumo at Brentford and a handful of players from Forest: Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Morgan Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson and Chris Wood.

O’Neill: I’ll try to save flowers for some names not already mentioned. Three that spring to mind are Milos Kerkez, Antonee Robinson and Ryan Gravenberch. And not forgetting Wataru Endo, Liverpool’s official closer-out of games — mentioning him feels like a fitting way to end my answers.

Anka: Ryan Christie had spent his career as a decent No 10 (attacking midfielder) or hard-working winger but has been recalibrated into a sensational box-to-box midfielder. The 30-year-old is a professional pest (that’s a compliment) and a key component in the perpetual pressing machine that Iraola has forged at Bournemouth.

Christie is more than just a ball-winning water-carrier — he sprinkles flair in with the fight, too. Iraola has said Christie dealing with a chronic groin issue and will need surgery in the summer. I hope he’ll find a way to continue his good form next season.

Whitehead: Salah is deservedly receiving the plaudits but outside the Egyptian, Liverpool’s most integral player this season has been Alexis Mac Allister. He links defence and attack as well as any midfielder I’ve watched this season, and really puts his body on the line for such a slight figure. A word for another Merseyside-based midfielder, Everton’s Idrissa Gueye, who has been outstanding at 35.

Spiers: Depends how unsung we’re talking. Wood and Isak are both quite well sung, so I’ll jointly go for Mbuemo and Yoane Wissa for helping spearhead Brentford to another comfortable mid-table finish. I thought they would struggle this season but they’re 24 points clear of the bottom three and batting well above their weight yet again. Thomas Frank is probably the Premier League’s most underrated manager.

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Premier League injury update: Every club’s situation after the international break

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6243993/2025/04/01/premier-league-injury-update-after-international-break/

After the international break and a weekend of FA Cup quarter-finals, the Premier League restarts tonight.

But there were some high-profile withdrawals from international duty, including Liverpool’s Alisson, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon, plus Erling Haaland picked up an injury in their FA Cup win over Bournemouth.

So where does each club stand right now? Here, our club reporters provide the latest updates…

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Arsenal

The big news from an Arsenal perspective is that Bukayo Saka is fit and available again. Saka, who has been out since December with a hamstring injury, played in a behind-closed-doors game during the international break and is now ready to return.

Riccardo Calafiori picked up an unfortunate knee injury while away with Italy, but manager Mikel Arteta hopes it will only keep him out for “a few weeks”.

Jurrien Timber also left the Netherlands camp with sickness, but has recovered in time for the resumption of the Premier League.

James McNicholas

Aston Villa

Those on international duty had a swift return to Villa action on Sunday, with all passed fit and featuring in the 3-0 FA Cup semi-final victory against Preston North End.

Ollie Watkins was the key doubt going into the match, having picked up a minor injury that caused him to miss England’s World Cup qualifiers, but returned for Villa at Deepdale as a second-half substitute.

 

Watkins played for Villa on Sunday after missing England’s matches (Matt McNulty/Getty Images)

Leon Bailey missed the match due to long-haul flights from Jamaica and needed an extra period of rest ahead of the Premier League coming back.

Jacob Tanswell

Bournemouth

None of Bournemouth’s players picked up injuries while on international duty. Further positive news on the injury front arrived over the weekend, with Marcos Senesi making his first appearance since November in their 2-1 FA Cup quarter-final defeat to Manchester City, while substitute Adam Smith also returned from a calf injury.

Andoni Iraola provided an encouraging pre-match update on fellow long-term absentee Julian Araujo (thigh injury), indicating that he could return soon.

However, Luis Sinisterra did not join Colombia for their World Cup qualifiers against Brazil and Paraguay. He was replaced after just 18 minutes as a second-half substitute in Bournemouth’s final match before the break — against Brentford — with an apparent hamstring problem, having missed 16 league games between October and January with a hamstring injury.

Iraola also explained before the City loss that Marcus Tavernier, who played all 90 minutes against Brentford, was ruled out due to an ankle issue. Tavernier returned from a thigh injury after a month out in late January.

There is currently no return timeline for either player.

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Brentford

It has been a positive international break for Brentford as captain Christian Norgaard signed a new contract until 2027 while Rico Henry, Sepp van den Berg and Gustavo Nunes have stepped up their recovery from injury by playing in friendlies or for the academy side.

It was also a special international camp for Yehor Yarmoliuk, who made his senior debut for Ukraine.

The only concern for head coach Thomas Frank is that Mikkel Damsgaard missed Denmark’s matches against Portugal through illness, but he will hopefully be fit for Wednesday’s trip to face the Carabao Cup winners Newcastle United.

Jay Harris

Brighton

None of the internationals were ruled out of Saturday’s FA Cup exit on penalties against Nottingham Forest, although long-distance travellers Joao Pedro (Brazil) and Diego Gomez (Paraguay) were used as substitutes rather than starters.

Lewis Dunk (ribs) and Matt O’Riley (knee) returned to the matchday squad, but Georginio Rutter (ankle) and Adam Webster (hamstring) were forced off in the second half of normal time.

 

Rutter against Forest in the FA Cup (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Tariq Lamptey missed the draw at Manchester City before the international break with an ankle problem sustained in training and is expected to be sidelined for several weeks.

Andy Naylor

Chelsea

The sight of striker Nicolas Jackson, Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer returning to training last week was significant for everyone connected to Chelsea. Head coach Enzo Maresca said he hoped to have all three available after the international break and it looks like he will get his wish.

Having Jackson back to lead the line is a major boost for the club. Chelsea’s first-choice centre forward has not played since February 3 due to a hamstring injury. The same can be said for Madueke, having picked up a hamstring problem of his own at Brighton last month.

Chelsea fans were understandably particularly concerned about Palmer after a muscular injury caused him to miss their last match against Arsenal and withdraw from England duty. But after having a couple of scans, the 22-year-old has been given the all-clear.

Marc Guiu, absent like Jackson after getting injured (leg abductor) against West Ham, is going to be out for a bit longer than initially planned. He is pain-free but Chelsea don’t want to take any risks by rushing him. The aim is for the 19-year-old to resume first-team duties again for the busy May schedule at the very latest.

Simon Johnson

Crystal Palace

Palace emerged from their three-week break with no new injuries and welcomed back striker Jean-Philippe Mateta for the visit to Fulham in the FA Cup quarter-final on Saturday after his head injury sustained against Millwall in the previous round.

They remain without defender Chadi Riad, who ruptured his ACL in January, and midfielder Cheick Doucoure, who has a tear in his meniscus. The pair will miss the remainder of the season, with Riad also expected to be absent for part of the 2025-26 campaign.

Will Hughes missed the 3-0 FA Cup quarter-final win over Fulham due to illness.

Matt Woosnam

Everton

Vitalii Mykolenko was the only player to pick up a knock during the break, as he injured his thigh while playing for Ukraine. It is being assessed by the club.

 

Mykolenko was injured against Belgium (Virginie Lefour/Belga Mag/AFP/Getty Images)

Iliman Ndiaye and Dwight McNeil are both back in first-team training. Ndiaye sustained a medial ligament problem in the last Merseyside derby in February while McNeil, who has not played since early December, has been kept out with a knee injury.

David Moyes speaks later on Tuesday, where he should give updates on the above as well as Dominic Calvert-Lewin (hamstring).

Orel Mangala is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Patrick Boyland

Fulham

Marco Silva waited until the 71st minute to bring on Raul Jimenez in the 3-0 defeat against Crystal Palace on Saturday, despite the striker scoring four goals in two games to inspire Mexico to the Concacaf Nations League title. He is expected to return to Fulham’s starting XI in tonight’s Premier League game against Arsenal.

Antonee Robinson was absent from the USMNT’s dismal Nations League displays as he continues to manage tendinopathy, but he was back captaining Fulham against Palace.

Long-term absentees Kenny Tete and Harry Wilson should return this month, but Reiss Nelson is unlikely to return from his hamstring injury before the end of the season.

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Ipswich

Defender Axel Tuanzebe has returned to training after undergoing surgery on the hand injury sustained while washing up in October and is in contention to feature against Bournemouth.

Conor Chaplin is also back in training, having not featured this year due to a knee injury. Kalvin Phillips picked up an injury against Nottingham Forest last time out and a late call is set to be made on his availability.

Centre-back Cameron Burgess clocked up the air miles during March’s international break, playing the full 90 minutes in Australia’s World Cup qualifiers against Indonesia and China.

Kieran McKenna said assessments would be made on a couple of other players who had returned from international duty with issues.

Ali Rampling

Leicester

Leicester City picked up no new injuries during the international break.

In fact, Ruud van Nistelrooy had around 15 of his first-team squad to work with during the pause in Premier League proceedings and promoted several of the under-21s to work with too, including teenage wingers Jeremy Monga and Jake Evans.

 

Leicester promoted 15-year-old Jeremy Monga during the break (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Ricardo Pereira was the only injury doubt before the break as he missed the Manchester United defeat with a muscle strain but should return to training before the trip to Manchester City on Wednesday.

Rob Tanner

Liverpool

Alisson suffered a head injury in the closing stages of Brazil’s World Cup qualifying win over Colombia which forced him to be substituted (pictured top). The Liverpool goalkeeper missed their subsequent defeat to Argentina as concussion protocols were followed. However, he’s since recovered well on Merseyside and is expected to be fit to start Wednesday’s Merseyside derby against Everton at Anfield.

The same goes for midfielder Ryan Gravenberch, who left the Netherlands’ training camp ahead of their two-legged Nations League tie against Spain after being deemed unavailable for selection by Dutch medical staff. The decision was described as precautionary given Gravenberch’s workload over the course of this season. He was given some time off to rest and recover and is set to feature against Everton.

Liverpool will still be without Trent Alexander-Arnold (ankle), Conor Bradley (hamstring) and Joe Gomez (hamstring). Alexander-Arnold is hopeful of returning to action before the end of April.

James Pearce

Manchester City

Having survived the international break, and even welcomed Ederson back to action after missing the previous league game and Brazil’s matches, City saw Erling Haaland go off with an injury to his left ankle in the FA Cup clash with Bournemouth on Sunday.

The Norwegian left the Vitality Stadium in a protective boot and on Monday the club released a statement which said: “Erling underwent initial tests in Manchester on Monday morning and will now seek specialist consultation to confirm the full extent of the injury.

“Assessment remains ongoing to ascertain a full prognosis. The expectation is that Erling will be fit in time to play a further part in the remainder of this season, including this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup.”

City are still without Rodri (knee) and three centre-backs: Manuel Akanji (adductor), Nathan Ake (foot) and John Stones (foot).

Sam Lee

Manchester United

Ruben Amorim will be relieved that his 11 internationals away on duty came through the break unscathed as, back in Manchester, his long injury list finally started to clear over the last fortnight.

Harry Maguire and Leny Yoro returned to training last week and so did long-term absentee Luke Shaw, although the 29-year-old is still some way short of being able to add to his total of three appearances this season.

 

Harry Maguire is back in training for Manchester United (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Altay Bayindir and Tom Heaton are also training again, giving Amorim a senior goalkeeper in reserve for the first time since early February.

Ayden Heaven will miss tonight’s trip to Nottingham Forest after being stretchered off against Leicester City, but Amorim believes his injury is “not so serious”. Kobbie Mainoo is “almost” ready to play for the first time in six weeks, and Jonny Evans is still “recovering” from a back issue.

Lisandro Martinez is out for the remainder of the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury.

It was also feared an ankle injury could end Amad‘s campaign, although Amorim said he hopes to have the 22-year-old winger back sooner.

Mark Critchley

Newcastle United

Anthony Gordon suffered a hip injury during the closing stages of England’s 2-0 victory over Albania and Thomas Tuchel initially suggested the problem did not look good. However, despite withdrawing from the England squad, early scans were promising and he appears to have avoided serious injury. He is due to serve the final match of his three-game suspension when Newcastle host Brentford, so there is a chance he may be ready to return against Leicester City on Monday.

Tino Livramento was also released from the England squad ahead of their 3-0 win over Latvia, but that was a selection choice, rather than a fitness issue.

Dan Burn made his international debut against Albania, to complete a dream week for the centre-back, following his goal in the Carabao Cup final victory over Liverpool.

No significant injuries have been reported for Newcastle’s other internationals, meaning Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Sandro Tonali should all be available against Brentford.

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Nottingham Forest

Chris Wood was the one casualty among the Forest 14 first-team players who were called up by their countries. The New Zealand international suffered a contusion in his hip during their World Cup qualifier against New Caledonia last week, which saw him sidelined for the FA Cup quarter-final against Brighton.

There is a chance he could face Manchester United tonight, with Nuno Espirito Santo saying he will be assessed right up until the hours before the game.

The same is true of Morgan Gibbs-White, who picked up a knock after colliding with the post during the Cup win at the Amex Stadium on Saturday evening.

Paul Taylor

Southampton

Southampton had a fair few players away on international duty and did not come through entirely unscathed.

Jan Bednarek had to come off at half-time while captaining Poland against Malta on Monday, suffering from a bloody nose. He has had a mixed picture with injuries of late and so he was not risked for the second half.

 

Jan Bednarek, right, was injured against Malta (Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images)

The other main concern is Will Smallbone, after he withdrew from the Republic of Ireland squad and was replaced by Saints team-mate Ryan Manning. A groin injury was the cause of his withdrawal and it had ruled him out of Ivan Juric’s squad for their last Premier League game, against Wolves, before the break.

Nancy Froston

Tottenham

It looks like none of Tottenham’s first-team squad suffered any issues during the international break, while Kevin Danso, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski are close to returning to full fitness after an extra couple of weeks to work on their rehab.

The main headline from Spurs’ internationals was Cristian Romero helping Argentina to thrash their South American rivals Brazil 4-1 and qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

Yang Min-hyeok (South Korea) and Jamie Donley (Northern Ireland), who are on loan at Queens Park Rangers and Leyton Orient respectively, made their senior debuts and that experience could help them in pre-season when they will try to permanently break into the first team.

Jay Harris

West Ham

Niclas Fullkrug is in contention to feature in tonight’s Premier League fixture against Wolverhampton Wanderers. The striker has not featured since sustaining a hamstring injury in the FA Cup loss to Aston Villa in January. But he returned to training ahead of schedule and head coach Graham Potter plans to ease his return to the starting XI.

Cryensio Summerville remains sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Athletic previously reported the winger hopes to return to full fitness towards the end of April.

Vladimir Coufal is an injury doubt, while Michail Antonio will not feature again this season. The 35-year-old forward is still recovering from a broken leg, which he sustained in a car crash in December.

Wolverhampton

Vitor Pereira reported a clean bill of health for the home game with West Ham United despite Jorgen Strand Larsen withdrawing from Norway duty with a broken bone in his hand.

The striker actually suffered the injury before playing in the Premier League games against Everton and Southampton, the latter of which brought him two goals. But he gained permission to miss his country’s games to nurse the injury back to full health.

Otherwise, Wolves’ array of internationals managed to return unscathed.

Steve Madeley

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The Premier League is back – and it’s all about the race for a top-five finish

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6226328/2025/03/31/premier-league-champions-league-projections/

With the Premier League title race and relegation battle seemingly wrapped up before April, you might think there is little peril remaining in the final weeks of 2024-25.

Fear not. Any thrill-seekers need only look as far as the race for Champions League spots, with as many as seven teams still fighting to dine at Europe’s top table next season.

Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest have separated themselves from the remaining pack at the top of the table but based on the latest UEFA coefficient standings, fifth is enough for a place in the 2025-26 Champions League. One more win for any of the five English sides remaining in a European competition this season should confirm that additional spot in the continent’s top tournament.

So, with just five points separating fourth-placed Chelsea and 10th-placed Bournemouth, predicting who might stake a claim to those lucrative spots is as difficult as you would imagine.

Of course, that won’t stop us from trying to predict the final league standings.

To do so, we can turn to Opta’s predicted league table. This table is established by calculating a figure for each team’s attacking and defensive strength based on their results in previous seasons, with the algorithm weighted towards more recent results.

A match between any two sides can be simulated many times to see who wins more often. What the grid below displays is the average of the results of each of these 100,000 simulations.

Manchester City and Newcastle United look to have the strongest probability of making it over the line, with Chelsea predicted to drop two places and settle for a spot in the Europa League next season.

The difficulty of City and Newcastle’s remaining fixtures might have a lot to do with that predicted configuration.

Using Opta’s Power Rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — Pep Guardiola’s side have the easiest run-in of any side in the Premier League, with a home fixture against Aston Villa deemed to be the trickiest clash in their final nine games.

While Newcastle have an extra game to squeeze in, their run-in is statistically the sixth-easiest in the league.

Things will rarely go to plan in an increasingly competitive Premier League, so what do the underlying numbers suggest for each team? Let The Athletic’s data-driven take on the remaining teams fighting for those European spots be your guide.

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Manchester City 

Current position: 5th

Predicted position: 4th

In a season of dismay for Manchester City, it would still be impressive for Guardiola’s side to clinch fourth spot before resetting their squad for the next campaign.

Aside from their well-established injury issues, City’s problems with their counter-pressing have been glaringly obvious. They have lacked the requisite intensity to close down their opponent in transitional moments, leaving them vulnerable to the counter-attack.

The numbers reflect this neatly, with a 10-game rolling chart of their direct attacks conceded — as a proxy of counter-attacking play — showing a sharp uptick this season compared with previous campaigns.

City’s inconsistency has been unrecognisable from their typical dead-eyed performances that we have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. Guardiola’s men last won three Premier League games in a row in October — but they have the chance to change that in the final weeks.

On paper, City have the most straightforward run-in among all Premier League teams, suggesting a gentle jog to fourth spot is the most likely outcome. They even have the wiggle room to finish one position lower but given their volatility, it might not be straightforward.

Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Leicester City (H), April 6 — Manchester United (A), April 12 — Crystal Palace (H), April 19 — Everton (A), April 28 — Aston Villa (H), May 3 — Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), May 10 — Southampton (A), May 18 — Bournemouth (H), May 25 — Fulham (A)

 

Omar Marmoush could help City salvage their season (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)

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Newcastle United 

Current position: 6th

Predicted position: 5th

Newcastle are flying high from winning the Carabao Cup, their first major domestic trophy in 70 years, but Eddie Howe’s meticulous personality will guard against complacency.

A return to the Champions League is in reach. Howe likes to play with intensity in and out of possession — a trait that has returned this season after a jaded, injury-hit 2023-24 campaign.

Using statistics from data company Footovision, Newcastle are among the top three Premier League teams for the share of time spent sprinting, both in and out of possession, highlighting how much of their game is predicated on physical output.

A stable, injury-free run would allow Howe to keep that intensity high. If the midfield trio of Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton can stay fit and firing, Newcastle could dominate the midfield battle in every game they play.

Throw in the mercurial form of Alexander Isak, and Howe’s men have the quality to return to the European stage.

Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Brentford (H), April 7 — Leicester (A), April 13 — Man Utd (H), April 16 — Palace (H), April 19 — Villa (A), April 26 — Ipswich Town (H), May 3 — Brighton & Hove Albion (A), May 10 — Chelsea (H), May 18 — Arsenal (A), May 25 — Everton (H)

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Chelsea

Current position: 4th

Predicted position: 6th

Chelsea are in danger of ending the season with a whimper.

As shown in the first table of this article, their 1.4 points per game is the worst rate among the top nine teams across the past 10 games, with their latest defeat, against Arsenal, arguably their most toothless performance of the season.

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Chelsea fans have grown frustrated with Enzo Maresca’s approach but they are creating more chances and restricting their opponents, as shown in their rolling expected goals (xG) for and against compared with the previous two seasons.

The frustration is likely to come from how Maresca’s Chelsea can be slow and laboured. Looking at each team’s in-possession approach this season, Chelsea’s high-possession, less direct style is only outdone by Manchester City.

There is no right or wrong way to play football, but excitement has not been guaranteed at Stamford Bridge this season.

A tricky fixture list awaits, particularly in the final four games as Chelsea face Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.

In December, Maresca angered fans when he said Chelsea were not in a title race — but he was proven correct. They are still firmly in a Champions League race, but the numbers suggest they might just fall short there too.

Remaining fixtures: April 3 — Tottenham Hotspur (H), April 6 — Brentford (A), April 13 —  Ipswich (H), April 20 — Fulham (A), April 26 — Everton (H), May 3 — Liverpool (H), May 10 — Newcastle (A), May 18 — Man Utd (H), May 25 — Forest (A)

 

Chelsea surely need Cole Palmer back on form if they are to finish in the top five (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)

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Brighton

Current position: 7th

Predicted position: 7th

It is not surprising that Brighton are fighting for European qualification, which is a testament to the work done on the Sussex coast in recent seasons.

Players and managers have come and gone, but their upward trajectory has been remarkable. Reaching the Champions League would propel Brighton into uncharted territory after their Europa League adventure last season, but they remain firmly in the mix. Only one point separates them from fifth place.

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How Brighton proved against Man City they are Champions League ready

Hurzeler has put Brighton in contention to reach Europe's top competition - they have as good a chance as anyone

Fabian Hurzeler is spoilt for choice in forward areas, with Joao Pedro, Georginio Rutter, Danny Welbeck, Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh all fighting for limited places. Rotation is required to keep his attacking talent happy, both within and between games.

No manager averages more than Hurzeler’s 4.8 substitutes per game — he is often unafraid to tweak at half-time — and Brighton are one of only two Premier League sides to name a different starting line-up in every game this season (Ipswich Town are the other).

Playing from back to front more directly has made Hurzeler’s side a little less predictable than under their previous boss, Roberto De Zerbi. It might come at the cost of less control, but pace and athleticism are embraced rather than stifled.

The numbers suggest that they might just miss out on a Champions League spot, but if ‘settling’ for the Europa League or Conference League is a disappointment that Brighton fans must face, it shows how far the club has come.

Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Villa (H), April 5 — Palace (A), April 12 — Leicester (H), April 19 — Brentford (A), April 26 — West Ham United (H), May 3 — Newcastle (H), May 10 — Wolves (A), May 18 — Liverpool (H), May 25 — Spurs (A)

 

Champions League football would be a leap into the unknown for Brighton (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)

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Aston Villa

Current position: 9th

Predicted position: 8th

While the ever-obsessive Unai Emery is rarely satisfied, a place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and semi-finals of the FA Cup must give him some comfort, especially as they are only three points off fifth.

Villa have been less convincing than last season as they balance domestic and European football, but they have regained their mojo since the turn of the year. The January arrivals of Marcus Rashford, Donyell Malen and Marco Asensio have certainly helped, with Emery now having the squad depth to rotate his players across competitions with little drop-off in quality.

 

Marco Asensio has won the Champions League three times – now he is trying to ensure Aston Villa are in it again next season (Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)

Rashford’s arrival has changed Villa’s in-possession shape slightly but they already tended to attack with greater verve on the left flank, often with Jacob Ramsey rolling inside while left-back Lucas Digne overlaps on the outside.

Nevertheless, Villa have good coverage across the pitch and like to penetrate through central channels, with only Chelsea (32 per cent) having a higher share of attacking touches in the middle attacking third this season.

Greater solidity in defence and an improved counter-attacking threat have seen Villa get back on track. Opta’s predictions suggest that a second consecutive campaign in the Champions League is unlikely, but let’s not forget that if they make it through to this season’s final in Munich on May 31, another win would give them a backdoor route.

Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Brighton (A), April 5 — Forest (H), April 12 — Southampton (A), April 19 — Newcastle (H), April 28 — Man City (A), May 3 — Fulham (H), May 10 — Bournemouth (A), May 18 — Spurs (H), May 25 — Man Utd (A)

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Bournemouth

Current position: 10th

Predicted position: 9th

With just one win in their last six Premier League games, there has been a notable slide from Bournemouth in recent weeks. However, that should not detract from how Andoni Iraola has crafted one of the most energetic, stubborn sides to play against this season.

Iraola’s direct style is well-established by now, with only Everton having a higher share of passes played long than Bournemouth’s 15 per cent. It might appear scruffy to the untrained eye, but there is method to the madness as Iraola’s side intelligently position themselves to win second balls and hoover up any loose balls high up the pitch.

No team across Europe’s top four leagues have won possession in the attacking third more than Bournemouth’s 182 occasions. In an era defined by controlled possession and positional play, Iraola encourages chaos, disruption, and spontaneity.

“The game is for the players. Coaches are just the assistants. Coaches cannot pretend to control the game — luckily for the game,” Iraola told The Athletic in February. “But I try to encourage this creativity, try not to limit touches in training for example, try to encourage them to carry the ball, go one against one, take risks. It’s the easiest way to make a difference.”

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The dream of a Champions League spot has faded after a four-game winless run in the league but Opta’s predicted ninth-placed finish would match a club record. Whatever the outcome, the plaudits that Iraola is receiving are richly deserved.

Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Ipswich (H), April 5 — West Ham (A), April 14 — Fulham (H), April 19 — Palace (A), April 27 — Man Utd (H), May 3 — Arsenal (A), May 10 — Villa (H), May 18 — Man City (A), May 25 — Leicester (H)

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Fulham

Current position: 8th

Predicted position: 10th

Fulham are outsiders for a top-five spot, but the gap between them and Manchester City in fifth is just three points.

Marco Silva’s side have one of the best defensive records in the league. Only Arsenal and Liverpool are conceding fewer non-penalty xG than Fulham (1.1 per 90 minutes).

Going forward, Fulham’s key strength is undoubtedly their wide combinations, particularly down their left flank. Alex Iwobi, Emile Smith Rowe and the marauding Antonee Robinson have been linking up excellently, helping Fulham get into position to deliver back-post crosses, one of their key weapons. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have created more chances from back-post crosses.

If there has been any frustration, it has been Fulham’s failure to turn good performances into victories — they have taken the lead in 21 matches, but only gone on to win 12. In comparison, Bournemouth have also won 12 from four fewer games. Fulham have also failed to win three consecutive games all season, which helps explain why they have flown under the radar.

 

Fulham will have to leapfrog several teams to finish in the top five (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)

Silva’s side require nine more points to beat their club-record 53 points achieved in the 2008-09 season, when they qualified for the Europa League. A tricky end to the season — with Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Villa still to play — means a top-five place will be a tough ask.

Remaining fixtures: April 1 — Arsenal (A), April 6 — Liverpool (H), April 14 — Bournemouth (A), April 20 — Chelsea (H), April 26 — Southampton (A), May 3 — Villa (A), May 10 — Everton (H), May 18 — Brentford (A), May 25 — Man City (H)