Everything posted by Vesper
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that RM CL pedigree just wow
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2 3 Bellingham
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2 2 Diaz
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2 1 Håland (pen)
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1 1 Mbappe
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1 nil Citeh Håland
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https://www.vipleague.pm/champions-league/manchester-city-vs-real-madrid-1-live-streaming https://www.vipleague.pm/champions-league/manchester-city-vs-real-madrid-2-live-streaming https://redditsoccerstreams.org/event/manchester-city-real-madrid/1506879 https://soccer-100.com/event/uefa-champions/real-madrid-vs-man-city-live-soccer-stats/732187
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The most fascinating young players in Europe's Big Five Leagues (redux) https://www.scoutednotebook.com/p/squad-most-fascinating-young-players-europes-big-five-leagues Before this weekend, 1,612 outfield players had played at least 360 minutes across Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season. 467 of them were born in the year 2001 or later. I have selected 20 fascinating profiles to share with you. This is the SCOUTED Squad. First things first, I have also excluded goalkeepers as there are so few with meaningful minutes in Europe’s Big Five Leagues. Also, none of the players in the below graphic will be in the Squad as they secured their place in the first instalment. That does not make then any less fascinating. Since that newsletter, we have explored a host of new metrics, refined our processes for discovering talent, redefined what is fascinating in the current football landscape, developed new player profiles and worked out how to provide some data visualisations. Translation: this is going to be a big one (and it took much longer than I anticipated). Centre-backs To refine the discovery centre-backs, I filtered the dataset to players tagged as Defender only on Stathead. This produced 576 players - this will be the context for all percentile rankings in this section - and 137 were born in the year 2001 or later. For young players, minutes played can be the most impressive metric. That applies to our first pick, Pietro Comuzzo. In our dataset, Levi Colwill, Cristhian Mosquera and Pau Cubarsí are the only 2003+ centre-backs with more minutes; only 28 minutes separate Cubarsí and Comuzzo. This 2005er will turn 20 this month and ranks well when looking at season totals: . He also has the second-best % Dribblers Tackled rate of any 01+ defender to challenge at least 20 dribblers (78.3%). On the ball, Comuzzo’s long-range passing is the standout. The Italian is one of four 2001+ defenders to attempt 7+ Long Passes per 90 while maintaining a 70% success rate - Pau Cubarsí, Malick Thiaw and Nuno Mundes complete the set. You could describe Charlie Cresswell as a magnetic lighthouse. Only two teams in Ligue 1 have conceded fewer goals than Toulouse and the Leeds United academy graduate appears to be a major reason why. The 2002er ranks in the 10% for Blocked Shots, the top 5% for Clearances and the top 3% for Aerial Duels Won. He backs up this volume with incredible efficiency, winning 73.% of his Aerial Duels. For context, Virgil van Dijk is winning 74.2%. Cresswell is also a big box threat, ranking the in the top 10% for xG and Shots when compared to the 576 defenders in this dataset. At the weekend, Cresswell scored his first-ever goal for the Ligue 1 side, finishing the game against Auxerre with more interceptions and more aerial duels won than any other player on the pitch from his position as CCB in a back three. Giovanni Leoni only just meets the minimum minutes threshold but is exactly what I am looking for when putting together these squads. The 2006-born centre-back ranks in the 100th percentile for Duel Success rate among defenders of all ages and is winning 75% of his Aerial Duels, contesting just under 2 per 90 - that stat is not a surprise when you consider he reportedly stands at 195 cm tall. Remember, this data does not exclude the latest round of fixtures; on Sunday, Leoni scored his first-ever senior goal. Get him on your radar immediately. Left-footed centre-backs: a curated shortlist Read full story Once again, I am lacking a left-footer. That’s not to say they are not any fascinating left-footed centre-back prospects, but I have covered the likes of Dean Huijsen, Nathan Zézé and Konstantinos Koulierakis plenty of times this season. When I put together my shortlist, Llew highlighted Mikayil Faye as a potential pick for Generation 04. With a few more minutes behind him following a permanent move to Rennes this summer, let’s revisit him. Usually deployed as the LCB in a back-three, he is displaying proficiency in the skills associated with that role. He is yet to be successfully dribbled past by an opponent, although it appears that he is willing to commit a foul rather before letting that happen. His other standout attribute was the combination of Progressive Actions per 90. This metric is a combination of Progressive Passes and Progressive Carries with all Passes and Carries into the Penalty Area removed - which becomes more helpful when looking at midfielders. Faye is averaging 6 per 90, similar to Dean Huijsen (5.9) and Lucas Beraldo (5.8). And although most of these Progressive Actions are Passes, his 1.7 Non-CPA Progressive Carries is only bettered by 20 2001+ defenders, the majority of which are full-backs. Full-backs For this position, we dip into the pool of players tagged at least once as a defender. This produces a set of 716 players for our percentile rankings, 181 were born in 2001+ or later. First, I want to use Myles-Lewis Skelly to introduce one of my ‘custom’ FBref metrics. Stathead does not provide Ground Duel Success Rate, however, due to spending lots of hours looking at how that metric is made up, I have built an alternative for anyone using FBRef data: Non-Aerial Duels. Here are the metrics and calculations you need: Non-Aerial Duels Contested = Dribblers Challenged + Fouls Conceded + Fouls Won + Attempted Take-Ons Non-Aerial Duels Won = Dribblers Tackled, Fouls Won, Successful Take-Ons Non-Aerial Duel Success Rate = Non-Aerials Won / Non Aerials Contested This metric helps remove Target Forwards and Lighthouse Centre-Backs. But you can also combine Aerials and Non-Aerials to get Total Duel Success rate. From this set of 716 defenders, Ezri Konsa (80.6%) is the only player with a higher Non-Aerial Success Rate than Myles Lewis-Skelly (78.6%). This one stat not only highlights why I used Konsa to help build my centre-back profile with SkillCorner data, but it is also a product of Lewis-Skelly’s superpower that Llew highlighted in SCOUT NOTES. Now you know his name Read full story So, rather than including Myles Lewis-Skelly in the Squad, I looked for another young player that ranked well for this metric. Step forward Nathaniel Brown. Only three 2001+ defenders ranked in the top 10% for Non-Aerials Won and Non-Aerial Success Rate: Myles Lewis-Skelly, Brown and Max Rosenfelder. However, the Eintracht Frankfurt wing-back is the only one that also ranks in the top 10% for Tackles Made; he is not just an efficient ground dueler, but a prolific one as well. Less surprising, given his wing-back role, Brown also ranks in the top 5% for Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area and Shot Involvements - he is a brilliant set-piece taker. My next left-back is Adam Obert. The Slovakian has played the majority of his career minutes as a centre-back for Cagliari but has operated exclusively as a left-back this season. Have we found the heir to Dávid Hancko? That would be exciting. At 188 cm, Obert is the same height as Hancko and displays the same attacking thrust that belies his size. The 2002er ranks in the top 10% for Non-Penalty xG and for Shots, with most of them coming from open-play. But the headline stats are Tackles + Interceptions (96th percentile), Touches per Progressive Action (95th percentile) and a 100th percentile figure for his percentage of Completed Passes that are Non-PPA Progressive Passes - 13% of his successful passes tick the Progressive threshold. These three stats combine to paint a picture of a front-footed and proactive full-back that is keen to win the ball back and get into the most dangerous areas. I’ll use that word again: thrust. I enjoy refining and customising metrics but sometimes it is best to keep it simple. Luck Zogbé, for example, is averaging 6.7 Tackles + Interceptions per 90, more than any other 01+ defender in our dataset and the third-most overall. Capable of playing at both left and right-back, the Ivorian (69.5) has the second-highest Percentage of Dribblers Tackled of any defender to make 3+ Challenges, only Alejandro Francés, a member of the first SCOUTED Squad, ranks higher. Zogbé also ranks in the 94th percentile for Fouls Drawn. Yet to feature in the UEFA Champions League, keep an eye out for this 2005er when Brest name their XI to face PSG on Tuesday. I included Tom Rothe in the previous SCOUTED Squad, a 192cm German left wing-back. To complete the full-back list this time around, I’m adding a 190cm German wing-back on the right. Holstein Kiel’s first-ever Bundesliga season has not been a fairytale campaign, but 2002-born Lasse Rosenboom is intriguing. Only six 2001+ defenders in our set average more Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area: Tiago Santos, Ian Maatsen, Joško Gvardiol, Destiny Udogie, Riccardo Calafiori and Malo Gusto. I would need to investigate how Rosenboom accumulates these touches, but the fact 5.8% of his total each game (97th percentile) are inside the box has piqued my interest enough to earn a spot. Centre-midfielders For the No.6 spots, I restricted the search to all Midfielders that had not played as a Forward. This produced a list of 457 players with 143 born in the year 2001 or later. The first profile I looked for is a Quarter-Back. I have written about Angelo Stiller, Adam Wharton and Adrián Bernabé as standout examples of this profile, so I avoided repeating their names again. Only one other 2001+ player joined Wharton in the top 10% of our dataset for Progressive Distance per Pass and Non-PPA Progressive Passes: Tommy Doyle. Doyle is also one of two midfielders, of any age, to average 20% of their Completed Passes as Long Passes, a metric that helps identify those Hail Mary Quarter-Backs. The current iteration of Wolves may not be the ideal environment for Doyle to flaunt these talents more consistently, especially given the quality and the profile of the starting Brazilian duo João Gomes and André, but he is a true outlier for this particular profile so I had to include him. Who is the most progressive passer of them all? Read full story The second No.6 profile I like to look for is Press Resistors. In the previous squad, now-Lazio midfielder Reda Belahyane ticked this box and he has since proved why. But the player that I cannot seem to escape is Amadou Koné. The 2005er is the only player in this dataset that ranks in the top 10% for Successful Take-Ons, Take-On Success Rate and Fouls Drawn. And he has the best Non-Aerial Success Rate of the entire midfield set (75.9%). I am very aware of sample size, but the early signs are both remarkable and fascinating. Is Ryan Gravenberch the second coming of Mousa Dembélé? Read full story We are using the same midfield pool for No.8s to try to avoid as many wingers and attacking midfielders as possible. But it’s worth mentioning that Jude Bellingham, Florian Wirtz and even Cole Palmer feature in this set. Anyway, I immediately wanted to find a Ground-Eater. To do so, I looked at players that ranked in the top 10% for Non-CPA Progressive Carries, Percentage of Carries as Non-CPA Progressive Carries and Progressive Distance per Carry. After eliminating wingers and wing-backs from the search, which only returned 14 players across all ages, this was the final shortlist - the presence of Rice and Reijnders was reassuring in terms of identifying a particular style of player. Andy Diouf is the SCOUTED Squad selection as he is the only 2001+ player that ranks in the top 5% for all three key metrics. Expect Crystal Palace to reignite their interest in Lens’ 2003er this summer. Expect other clubs to join the queue. After picking up Diouf, I then explored a way to find a literal box-to-box midfielder by calculating the percentage of each player’s touches by Third and by Defensive and Attacking Penalty Area. Looking at players with at least 4% of their touches in each area and at least 20% in each third produced this list of 2001+ players, again eliminating wide players: The player I want to focus on is 2004-born Kévin Danois. He ranks in the top 10% for Touches per Progressive Action and Non-PPA Progressive Passes and the the top 1% for Percentage of Passes as Non-PPA Progressive Passes. The reason he was not selected as the Quarter-Back pick is due to the fact his Progressive Distance per Pass and Passes into the Final Third rank only just above average. Both his data profile and his heat map scream box-to-box midfielder, which is different to Ground-Eater as it does not require the coverage of large distances in even larger chunks - Danois’ Progressive Distance per Carry ranks in the 55th percentile. Thinking about it, his 96th percentile rank for Tackles + Interceptions suggests he would be the perfect player for that Wolves midfield duo I touched on earlier. Attacking Midfielder For attacking midfielders, the only exclusions were players that had featured exclusively as Defenders. This produced a list of 1,036 players, including 330 born in 2001 or later. This is the most difficult position to identify with FBref filters. Building our new Archetype ft. Florian Wirtz Read full story First up, I ran a percentile version of the Wirtz-inspired search from the Omni-10 newsletter: The only players that matched this search were Lazar Samardžić and Ousmane Dembélé. The only players that averaged 6+ Shot-Creating Actions excluding Dead Balls were Kingsley Coman and Samardžić. I simply have to include the Serbian because of those stats. However, the fascination extends to whether this output is sustainable outside of the Atalanta environment and as a consistent starter. The other area of intrigue is that for all of this volume, he ranks in the 68th percentile for Non-Penalty xG + Expected Assisted Goals per 90. I am a big believer in ‘get volume first, ask questions later’ but the more I follow Samardžić, the more questions I have. While the above search rewards volume by any means, I have started to apply the thought behind Touches per Shot for Strikers to passing metrics for attacking midfielders. To find a No.10 that is constantly searching for and actively targeting players in dangerous areas, I looked at Passes Attempted per Passes into the Penalty Area, Passes Attempted per Key Passes and Passes Attempted per Shot-Creating Action from Live Passes. However, the majority of players that ranked in the top 5% for all three metrics were centre-forwards: Liam Delap, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitiké all appeared. When adding a top 10% filter for Touches in the Final Third, only Mohamed Salah and Dejan Kulusevski remained. In order to filter out centre-forwards and wide-forwards, I locked in the top 20% for Passes Attempted and the top 20% for Touches in the Final Third and then looked through the key three metrics to try to find an old-school Playmaker. It turns out everyone is a winger now… Wingers This next dataset includes every player tagged as a Forward. It produced a list of 579 players with 187 born in 2001 or later. I have wanted to build a Button Masher profile inspired by Mohamed Salah for a long time. The best way to do this with FBRef data is to combine Shots and Key Passes into Shot Involvements and then combine Passes into the Penalty Area and Carries into the Penalty Area in the Penalty Area Entries (Pen Entries); the latter will have a different definition on other sites - sometimes it only includes passes - but that is the definition for the following section. To prove this metric works, Mohamed Salah has at least 53 more Pen Entries than any other player across the entirety of Europe’s Big Five Leagues this season, not just this dataset. He also ranks first for Touches per Pen Entry, getting the ball into the area every 6.8 Touches. Getting the ball into the area is very good. Doing it that often is very, very good. Two lesser-mentioned 2001+ wingers that rank well for this metric are Bryan Zaragoza, on loan at Osasuna from FC Bayern and Malick Fofana, Lyon’s pocket rocket Belgian winger. The most fascinating aspect of Zaragoza’s output is the fact he receives the fewest Progressive Passes per 90 minutes of the 43 players that ranks in the top 10% for Pen Entries and Touches per Pen Entry. That already suggest a One-Man Army approach, his top 1% ranking for Progressive Yards per Carry confirms it. A prolific dribbler you may not have heard of is Benjamín Domínguez. The 2003-born Argentine joined Bologna at the start of the season and is attempting 6.3 Take-Ons per 90 as well as winning 2.7 fouls. Meanwhile, the Antoine Semenyo formula threw up some interesting names. Only 10 players ranked in the top 25% for Aerial Duels Won and Successful Take-Ons within this dataset, one of which was Semenyo. I have previously mentioned my intrigue in Nick Woltemade’s profile so I have included another player to add to this profile: Matteo Cancellieri. As teams look to induce chaos by sending long balls to a specific, wingers that can consistently compete will become much more valuable. 2001-born Cancellieri fits that mould. Centre-Forwards The striker percentile rankings are based on a pool of 207 players that have featured exclusively as forwards, 51 of those were born in 2001 or later. The Victor Osimhen Test Read full story My first instinct was to repeat the Victor Osimhen Test. The top 10% for Touches per Shot and top 10% for Penalty Area Proximity produced 10 players, including Mateo Retegui, Ollie Watkins and Erling Haaland. The 2001+ representatives were Gonçalo Ramos, Folarin Balogun and Nicolas Jackson. After expanding to the top 20% for each metric, three more 2001+ players popped up: George Ilenikhena, Elye Wahi and Thierno Barry. The fact that Barry has the fewest Touches per Shot alongside the most minutes played means that he gets a spot. The fact that Balogun and Ilenikhena show up while Monaco have just signed Mika Biereth means that someone has the opportunity to sign a very good centre-forward in the summer. The new Power Forwards, Gvardiol’s secret weapon and Barça’s superhuman duo Read full story My next pick is a Power Forward. I have mentioned Emanuel Emegha in previous newsletters but I have been looking for an opportunity to do so again. He ranks in the top 1% for Non-Penalty xG per shot and is 12.6 yards out on average for each effort. He is slightly lacking in terms of elite shot volume (52nd percentile) but he is making up for it, for now, by registering 1.75 Shots On Target per 90 (95th percentile). He is also averaging 4 final third touches per shot which suggests that an increase in service could help lift the shot output. The final pick is a player that caught my eye when researching my next SkillCorner piece, which profiles the anatomy of a Power Forward using tracking data from 2023/24. In this dataset, Roberto Piccoli ranks in the top 5% for Final Third Touches per Shot - the same as Emegha - and in the 88th percentile for Penalty Box Proximity in the Final Third. The Italian’s jump up in rank when compared to Penalty Box Proximity for all Touches (75th percentile) is usually the sign of a Target Forward. His 85th percentile ranking for Aerial Duels won and a quick check of his shot distribution - 31.8% of his Serie A shots this season have been headed efforts - confirms that he is more Target Forward leaning. Cagliari have an option to buy this 2001er from Atalanta in the summer, I am fascinated to find out whether he can jump another level. If you made it to the end, congratulations! I appreciate this was a bit of a monster newsletter. The decision to rank players based on all ages combined with so many new metrics to calculate meant that putting the Squad together took twice as long as the previous edition. I thought exporting the data early would help me avoid publishing this late. I was wrong. The next Monday Night SCOUTED Squad, whenever that may be, will include fewer players. Have a great week, Jake.
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Sacking another manager will not change a thing Changing the manager will achieve nothing and ignores the real problems https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/sacking-another-manager-will-not I’ll be honest, when I looked at the Brighton result and saw the reaction, I realised I barely have any emotional energy left for football. This club and how it’s being run, and the constant scapegoating of the manager when the real problems come above him, its sucking all my enthusiasm for football out of me. I’ve been through this all before and I really cannot be bothered to have the same conversations three years in a row. Maybe the owners who read this should start taking fans views seriously, instead of congratulating themselves on what is actually failure or spinning failure as success. Sadly, its also clear to me now at least some of our fans may never have the patience for a long term manager, because one bad run of form for any manager, and we tear him apart, bring him down & hound him out. We were indoctrinated to do this under Roman Abramovich and can’t get our heads around how football has changed. Between the start 2010/11 season and the end of 2021/2022, all under Roman’s ownership we challenged for the title 4 times in 12 seasons and missed out on CL football twice. We finished over 30 points behind the PL champions in the last 5 years of Roman’s ownership as well as the first 2 of the new ownership. This decline has been coming. The new owners I thought would change this, so far they’ve merely continued as a side which battles for top 4, with two cup runs and one lost final. The manager is not the most important issue right now. This magic bullet theory about managers has been proven false. You only have to look at the most successful clubs right now - Manchester City, Liverpool, even Real Madrid, all have built success with stability at management level. Arsenal’s best team in years has appeared doing the same thing. Fact is, in today’s game, you can’t build sustainable long term success or attract top players to your project without stability at manager level. Our fans need to get this into our heads, and fast. Nothing much will change if the manager changes right now. The biggest, most fundamental issues at our club right now are Clearlake Capital, the Sporting Directors and GK guru Ben Roberts. I’ve talked about why this is so many times I’ve lost count, and I can’t deal with anyone thinking they’re doing a good job. Look at our recent form. Look at our squad with its lack of depth so our first XI have become burned out. Look at the lack of leaders, an elite core and good experience to help our young stars. Look at the abysmal treatment of players and total waste of money in the transfer market. Anyone can see it. Every Chelsea fan I know, without fail, is angry right now and we have a right to be. The recent results show the squad building has been absolutely horrific and Enzo Maresca, like his predecessor Mauricio Pochettino, has been let down in the transfer market when he asked for a proven elite striker. Its impossible to judge a head coach when they aren’t given the tools they ask for to do their job. If we had a top GK, a proven elite 9 (who our last TWO managers have asked for and not been given), and quality depth in midfield, and Trev had been kept in the summer, I think we’d be in a better position now, regardless of who the coach is. And of course, if we signed 4-5 grown adults who have won trophies, are proven at elite level, with leadership qualities and good experience, as well some prime years ahead, we definitely wouldn’t be. But the self professed geniuses in charge, think that experience is bad despite EVERY successful title winning squad in PL history having a blend of both youth and experience. The “youth only” plan is not the plan these owners - or rather Todd Boehly - had in mind when they came here. PART of Todd Boehly’s plan was to sign a lot of elite young talent from all over the world, as we have. I still believe in that aspect of the project, I’ve not lost faith in that. But as myself and Simon have advocated for years on this site, Todd also wants some experience and proven players alongside that & is willing to be flexible to achieve it. He wants best in class people running the club and his main goal is to win. He knows how to win in sports ownership, and how to build relationships with fans and players and respect the culture of the club. Clearlake had no experience in sport ownership before this and have skewed the project in favour of kids only, with no good experience. Its absolutely ridiculous. Right now, we’re not on course to win the biggest trophies. And in my view we’re not going to win those trophies again without a change right at the top of the club. Another reason not to sack Maresca, is that no serious manager will get considered for or take our job right now, because they never get backed by the SD's, have no say on transfers or squad building whatsoever, and have to pick the GK Ben Roberts wants. It’ll be the same “project manager” who’ll follow orders. Nothing will change. The biggest tell is we won’t dare hire a truly elite manager like Klopp, Pep, Tuchel, Carlo or someone of that level because the self professed geniuses running our club think they know more than all of them and want someone who they can control, rather than listen to and trust people at the absolute top of the game. If that doesn't tell you the manager ain't the problem, I don't know what does. We’re currently on course to become a top 6 side who occasionally gets CL football , and whose best players get pinched by the real elite sides every few years and win a few cups, with a few easier European trophies. Basically Arsenal 10 years ago. That’s embarrassing. We’re Chelsea Football Club, not Borussia Chelsea. Regardless of the owner's ambitions - and I know they are bigger than top 6 - that’s where we are right now. And that’s NOT where Chelsea should be. We’re not a feeder club for other big clubs, it's absolutely shameful we’re in this position where people are even considering this might happen. I also don’t want to hear the excuse of our current league placing, because these issues will remain regardless of where we finish this season. If we succeed its down to Enzo getting the most out of this squad despite these issues, not due to the genius of the Sporting Directors. There’s no external saviour coming. Roman Abramovich is not coming back no matter how many ask for it, and his way of running a football club belongs in the past anyhow. The only way we can get real change now is Todd Boehly buying out Clearlake Capital, and even then, it's only faint hope. Yes. Todd’s links to that ticketing firm aren’t ideal, but if you think the timing of that leak, coming at a time Clearlake is heavily under fire, was a coincidence, I think you’re being very naive. Todd is the best man for the job. He’s a born winner, has a track record of winning, his first goal is to win, he has a long term perspective, he respects fans and our views & he understands what it takes to win and what type of characters you need to do it. And he has an emotional attachment to the club. Todd, if you're reading, we need you right now. Don’t give up on Chelsea, many many Chelsea fans would happily see you replace Clearlake and that only increases with every defeat. I for one am sick and tired of the same story two years in a row now. About this time every season we have a bad run and everyone wants the manager out, manager changes, nothing actually changes. And the people really responsible blame everyone else for their failures, the fans lap it up and think its all new and “this time” it will work out, when they real culprits face no accountability and are allowed to keep on making their mistakes & even pat themselves on the back for it. Because they appear to care more about their CVs than what's good for Chelsea FC. I’m tired of us fans fighting amongst ourselves (including me at times), about managers or players, when it’s clear who we should be calling out and directing this anger towards first. If necessary, and I hope its not, we should be (peacefully) protesting. Quite frankly, the people at the top need to realise how strong the depth of feeling is amongst fans, and its increasingly they won’t listen to us on socials, you could easily make an argument they don’t care about our views. The real problem at Chelsea is obvious and something has to be done. It’s heartbreaking to see us in this situation for a third year running and I’m just tired of excuses. We need to forget about judging the manager for now and focus on the real problem, the people above him who built this squad he has to coach. Clearlake and the SD’s need to sort it out, make the decisions necessary, show some ambition and start being not just competent, but exceptional. If not, they should leave for someone who’ll do a better job. Then we can have a conversation about the manager. The Score
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The data is clear - Squads with no experience don't win titles They love data so much, then pay attention to THIS data! https://siphillipstalkschelsea.substack.com/p/the-data-is-clear-squads-with-no Having finally watched the entire 90 mins of the Brighton game, I share a lot of the criticisms others have made so well elsewhere. But the biggest one of all for me was the clear lack of leadership and experience on display. People were blaming each other, waving hands at each other, heads down, no one taking responsibility. This isn’t Chelsea Football Club, for starters. It’s just not. And its not what a serious team/squad looks like. Myself and Simon have been blowing the trumpet for years on the subject of experience, and its more true than ever. So I decided to find actual data which backs up this argument. There’s plenty. Our “football genius” (according to him) co-owner Behdad Eghbali and his “football genius, best in class” (according to Behdad, them and no one else) Sporting Directors seem to think it is, and in time, they’ll become leaders and come good. But that’s not how it works. Young players at big clubs, expected to win now (not Borussia Dortmund, no, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, the clubs Chelsea SHOULD be competing with), gain experience, learn a winning mentality, learn how to deal with set backs, learn how to grow as players, as much from more experienced players as they do from actually playing. This isn’t just speculation, its a fact. Data shows it. Let me show you. The average age of Chelsea’s current squad is 23.9. The average age of a PL winning squad since 1992, is 26.8. As you can see there’s quite a significant difference there. The ‘youthful’ Chelsea squad which won the Champions League in 2021 had an an average age of nearly 26. It had Olivier Giroud, N’Golo Kante, Jorginho, Antonio Rudiger and Thiago Silva, all experienced players with leadership qualities. Below are the average ages of the last 8 PL Champions squads, going back to the last Chelsea PL win in 2016/17. So the last 8 seasons, a pretty good metric. 2023/24: Manchester City: 25.0 years old 2022/23: Manchester City: 27.8 years old (treble winners) 2021/22: Manchester City: 27.0 years old 2020/21: Manchester City: 26.1 years old 2019/20: Liverpool: 26.6 years old 2018/19: Manchester City: 26.4 years old 2017/18: Manchester City: 26.0 years old 2016/17: Chelsea: 27.0 years old The average age of the Liverpool squad currently topping the league is 26.4. They have some proven elite players and winners with experience and leadership qualities in key positions - Mohammed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk, Allison Becker - alongside a lot of young talent. Arsenal’s squad, currently 2nd in the Premier League, has an average age of 26.8. Again, there’s a lot of young talent but also more established players. Midfielder Declan Rice is 26 and a leader, centre back Gabriel is 27, goalkeeper David Raya is 29, Jorginho is 33 and Ben White is 27. Newcastle, in good form and top 4 contenders, have an average age of 27.9, and Nottingham Forest, a good side challenging for top 4, an average age of 26. That’s all the evidence you should need. In fact its more than enough. I’d also add all the squads who won PL titles had a healthy mix of youth and experience. They had leaders, winners, proven players, some of who had won things, alongside the young talent they had. None of them were a squad of kids who had played together with no experience or leadership around them for a few years. Ironically the greatest Chelsea team of all time, 04/05 season, won the league with an average age of 23.9, the same as our squad now. But there was a HUGE difference. John Terry and Frank Lampard, for example, had spent 3 years working and playing with Marcel Desailly, Gianfranco Zola, Graeme Le Saux, Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink, Emmanuel Petit & Frank Lebeouf, and learned from them all. Had freedom to make mistakes. So their development into their prime came with experience around them, and both players still acknowledge the importance of some of those players for their development even now. Also that Chelsea squad had Claude Makelele, a 31 year old who’d won everything at Real Madrid. Our current squad has no one like this. The only one we had, Thiago Silva, left last summer. Also back then, football culture was different. Players were men at 23/24. Not to mention Lampard became a first team regular at 17 at WHU, around more experienced players, so had 5 years experience around proven players before he even joined us. JT had been playing for Chelsea for 5 years by 2004 too, around a lot of experienced players. Likewise the United team who won the double in 1995/96 with “kids” had leaders and winners like Steve Bruce, Gary Pallister, Peter Schmeichel, Eric Cantona as experienced players, a young-ish Roy Keane who was a born leader, and even Ryan Giggs had 5-6 years experience at that point. So they had experience, winners and leaders around them. Basically, recent history especially, but history generally, tells you you need a squad with an average age of 26/27 to win the PL title and do it consistently. The clubs who win the Champions League tend to have a squad who is pretty experienced, and a balance of youth and experience. There’s also a stat I found from CIES Sports Laboratory, saying that the median age of champions in the five major European leagues in the 2010’s was 26.5 years old. Even young teams who win things, have had experienced players either in the squad or who have been at the club whilst the young players developed. Proven, experienced, winners, or players who are already the finished article, with leadership qualities. Liverpool signed James Milner for this reason. They signed finished article players in key positions like Allison and Virgil Van Dijk, their biggest money signings under Klopp, and they completed their team and they won the league. Jose Mourinho brought back Didier Drogba in the summer of 2014 as a squad player, to provide experience and leadership, and Chelsea won the league. Behdad and our Sporting Directors, all with zero days experience working at a giant football club prior to 2022, think they know better than all the data I’ve shared above. They are clearly betting on waiting until our squad gets to 26 years old in 3 years for us to be title contenders and potential CL winners. Even then its a huge risk when they have no experienced players to guide them or support their development. I’m also not quite as sure all of our squad will wait that long. Also its ridiculously unfair on young players to ask them to carry the team themselves over a whole season. It does them no good at all and you can see how that pressure is telling on them now. If we signed some proven elite players, finished article players in their prime with leadership qualities, maybe we’d not have to put the weight of carrying our team on inexperienced players. Maybe then we’d be able to rest them or take them out of the team just to take pressure off them, and those players could guide them. This what happens in normal successful teams. When Eden Hazard joined us in 2012, we still had Lampard, JT, Ivanovic, Cech, Ashley Cole, all there to help him integrate, help him understand club culture, adapt to the PL and take the pressure off him. Our current squad have no one to help them do this. Oh, sorry, no, we have Marc Cucurella, who’s never won a club trophy or anything with Chelsea, Reece James, who is injured half the time and isn’t vocal, Trevoh Chalobah, who will be gone in 6 months, and Tosin Adarabioyo, who has, checks notes, never won a major trophy. That’s not remotely the same. We have no pure 9, no elite GK, no commanding CB, and arguably no pure 6 despite £1.4 billion spent over 6 windows, and no leaders, no proven winners still in their prime, almost no experience, with tons of players we now need to move on who’ve flopped. According to Behdad Eghbali and themselves, this means our Sporting Directors are world class and doing a great job. But of course that’s nonsense. This is not a squad set up to win. Right now we resemble Borussia Dortmund, not Real Madrid or Manchester City. Which is embarrassing. We’re basically a bunch of kids playing good football together, who get close and may even get CL football, but never seriously compete for the major honours (I mean the Premier League and Champions League trophies). I don’t know how many more ways I can say this which will be clear: You cannot create a winning squad without good experience, leaders or winners. I hope they heard that. I hope that wasn’t discomforting, but its so frustrating this glaringly obvious factor has been actively ignored for over two years. Behdad Eghbali and the Sporting Directors need to get this concept into their skulls. It’s SO obvious to anyone who remotely follows football and studies successful clubs and teams. If they genuinely don’t see it, quite frankly they shouldn’t be working in football, because everyone else knows this. Like, everyone. If they, with their combined ZERO experience of winning, or building winning squads, think they know better, all I can do is laugh. If they think they know better, they should go tell Sir Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho, who helped build multiple title winning and CL winning squads (Jose arguably built the core of our 2012 winning squad too, to be honest). They should ask them what they think of trying to win the big trophies with no leaders, no winners, and no experience. Fergie and Jose especially would literally laugh in their faces. This doesn’t mean I don’t believe in the project by the way. I In fact, totally the opposite. I’m happy to have 20/21 young players in the squad to build and develop together long term for sustained success. That’s a GREAT idea. I believe in that. But you need those 4-5 players between 24-26 who have good experience, are top players, leaders and winners. It literally does almost no damage to the youth-centric approach to do this. One maybe doesn’t even need to be a starter. The data is in, the evidence is clear, there is literally no debate to be had on this subject. Keep with the same approach it will take at least 3 years, if you sign a balanced and strong squad (already failed in that regard with £1.4 billion btw), to be title challengers. And there’s no guarantee either, no data to say this approach actually works. It’s taking a massive risk with the clubs money and time. And if they think players like Cole Palmer are going to be happy to scrap for top 4 for 3-4 more years - maybe getting it, maybe not - before even challenging for the league, potentially winning nothing and stay here, they’re living in cloud cuckoo land. Palmer loves it here and is committed, but top players ultimately want to be challenging for the big honours every season, and playing Champions League comfortably, every single season - and big clubs WILL eventually try for Palmer if we keep on fluttering around the top 4 without certainty and not winning trophies. I’m really tired of educating alleged, self appointed experts on the literal basics of building a successful squad. This is not rocket science. It doesn’t take any qualifications to know how to do it, just a working knowledge of football and what successful teams and squads are made up of. Just one look at the data, the average ages of winning teams, tells you all you need to know - and NONE of those squads were 25 young players who all developed together, all of them had proven elite players, leaders and winners in their squad to help the young players develop. The owners love data, maybe they should look at the data, the history, which supports their approach. The fact is there is none. You can’t measure intangibles like good experience, leadership directly, individually on a spreadsheet, but the eye test (and even some data) shows these things actually matter. Behdad and the sporting directors are the only people who seem to disagree. Let this silly baseless idea go, and sign some proven, elite players, leaders, winners, in key positions. It’s not rocket science, it’s obvious. The Score
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AC Milan could offer Fikayo Tomori or Rafael Leao in swap deal for Joao Felix https://www.thechelseachronicle.com/news/ac-milan-could-offer-two-key-players-to-Chelsea-in-swap-deal-to-sign-joao-felix-reece-james-is-a-huge-fan-of-one/ snip Felix scored on his debut and played a key role in their hard-fought win at the weekend, with Milan likely to push to make that deal permanent at the end of the season. However, the price tag Chelsea are likely to demand is going to cause them an issue, and could force them to offer players instead to try and get the deal done. According to CalcioMercato, the Champions League side may offer either Fikayo Tomori or Rafael Leao in any deal for Felix, due to the Blues’ previous interest in the pair. The centre-back has been a target of many Premier League sides in recent seasons, however his previous time at Stamford Bridge could make Chelsea the favourites should they pursue that avenue. Leao meanwhile has been near the top of the list for the Blues for a dream winger signing ever since the new owners came into the club, and could be achievable based on the attacking strength Milan currently have.
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finally 👍🏽 Chelsea add Lucas Chevalier to their transfer shortlist https://www.thechelseachronicle.com/news/Chelsea-add-highly-rated-champions-league-goalkeeper-to-transfer-shortlist-he-starred-against-real-madrid-this-season/ The likes of Zion Suzuki and Gregor Kobel have been linked with a move to Stamford Bridge, and the latest figure on that list is Lucas Chevalier. The Frenchman has started every Ligue 1 game this season for Lille, and seems to have made an impression on a number of top clubs. One of those is Chelsea, and Simon Phillips has reported the Blues have added him to their shortlist as a potential option for the summer. He said on the Simon Phillips Substack: “But the latest name we are hearing via SPTC sources is Lucas Chevalier of Lille. Chevalier is 23-years-old, a 6-capped French U21 international, stands at 6ft 2in tall, and has played well over 100 senior league games in his career so far.
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Drogba style goal
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2 nil Morgan Rogers
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1 nil Villa already 55 seconds in
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https://www.vipleague.pm/fa-cup/aston-villa-vs-tottenham-hotspur-1-live-streaming https://www.vipleague.pm/fa-cup/aston-villa-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2-live-streaming https://redditsoccerstreams.org/event/aston-villa-tottenham-hotspur/1504607 https://favs.soccerstreams100.io/event/eng-fa/tottenham-vs-aston-villa-live-soccer-stats/730049
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Pool crash out 1 nil
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the top 5 fullbacks on the planet are now off the board Nuno Mendes and Hakimi just renewed with PSG Davies renewed with Bayern Gvardiol is going nowhere and TAA will likely end up at Real Madrid (or stay at Pool)
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I posted on him earlier he is ambipedal and plays mostly at LCB but certainly can play RCB as well I would love to get him and Murillo from Forest
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https://www.vipleague.pm/fa-cup/plymouth-argyle-vs-liverpool-1-live-streaming https://www.vipleague.pm/fa-cup/plymouth-argyle-vs-liverpool-2-live-streaming https://www.vipleague.pm/fa-cup/plymouth-argyle-vs-liverpool-3-live-streaming https://redditsoccerstreams.org/event/plymouth-argyle-liverpool/1504605 https://favs.soccerstreams100.io/event/eng-fa/liverpool-vs-plymouth-live-soccer-stats/730037
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updated list of right-footed CBs who are remotely available in order of valuation: Giorgio Scalvini Marc Guéhi Ousmane Diomande Edmond Tapsoba Ilya Zabarnyi António Silva Cristhian Mosquera Odilon Kossounou Isak Hien Yann Bisseck Jonathan Tah (free) Mohamed Simakan Tomás Araújo Wilfried Singo Nikola Milenković Zeno Debast Malick Thiaw Joel Ordóñez Josip Sutalo Ryan Flamingo Pietro Comuzzo Martin Vitík Logan Costa Milan Skriniar Koni De Winter Arouna Sangante Aurèle Amenda
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nil 2 Wolves in a blink of an eye
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Chelsea’s loss to Brighton in FA Cup showed key player may need to leave, he doesn’t suit Enzo Maresca at all https://www.thechelseachronicle.com/columnist/chelseas-loss-to-brighton-in-fa-cup-showed-key-player-may-need-to-leave-he-doesnt-suit-enzo-maresca-at-all/ Chelsea cannot blame resting all of their key players for why they exited the FA Cup at the fourth round stage last night. The Blues were beaten 2-1 by Brighton at the Amex, with the comical own goal that was handed to them just five minutes in being the sole bright spot. There were no real clear-cut chances for Chelsea, even when they were chasing the game and introduced the likes of Enzo Fernandez and Noni Madueke off the bench. Very few players did well in The Chelsea Chronicle’s player ratings for the defeat, and one of those who did not score highly is Malo Gusto. Malo Gusto may need to leave Chelsea as he doesn’t suit Enzo Maresca’s system The Frenchman has been a key player for the Blues since he became a first team player in the summer of 2023. The injury woes for Reece James have seen him have to step up as a regular. The club captain was absent from the squad last night, however Enzo Maresca cleared up that James was not expected to be missing for the next game. At times this season, Gusto has been asked to invert into midfield to suit the system that the new manager wants to play, and it is clear that this has not been a seamless transition. In fact, it seems realistic at this point to think the 21-year-old could soon be on the chopping block if the club believe Maresca is the man to carry the project forwards. It is incredible to think this opinion can even surface, given just how important he was to the squad last season. Cole Palmer voted Gusto as his Chelsea player of the season for 2023/24, and it looked as if he was in for a very successful career in West London. Gusto’s terrible stats from Chelsea’s loss to Brighton Given that Chelsea operated in a more traditional back four last night, it could be expected that Gusto could be back to his best in a Chelsea shirt. However, the Frenchman really struggled up against Kaoru Mitoma and even Tariq Lamptey, losing the most duels of any player in the match. Even if James is not fit, Chelsea have the option of starting Josh Acheampong in that position after he was promoted to the first team earlier this season and signed a long-term contract with the club. Given he can shift into midfield or a back three far easier, this could spell bad news for Gusto’s future at Stamford Bridge.