Chelsea’s Champions League qualification hopes hinge on reviving their home form
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6066338/2025/01/18/Chelsea-champions-league-home-away-maresca/
Enzo Maresca could really do with seeing his Chelsea side win in the Premier League for the first time in a month when they host Wolves on Monday.
By the time that game kicks off at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea will have dropped to seventh in the table if Manchester City (away to Ipswich) and Aston Villa (at Arsenal) win over the weekend.
Chelsea’s run of three points from the last 15 available has played a major role in them tumbling down the standings in recent weeks (they were second after the goalless draw away to Everton on December 22). But their attempts to qualify for the Champions League via a top-four finish have been undermined by inconsistent home form since the start of the season five months ago.
The table below shows Chelsea are only the 10th-best side in England’s top division when it comes to games played on their pitch, with a disappointing return of 16 points from a possible 30. Manchester United, who have attracted a lot more negative scrutiny for their struggles this season, have that many, following their late win against Southampton on Thursday.
Home form table 2024-25
Team
Played
Won
Drawn
Lost
Goals for
Goals against
Points
Arsenal
10
7
3
0
20
7
24
Liverpool
10
7
2
1
20
8
23
Brentford
11
7
2
2
29
21
23
Aston Villa
11
6
4
1
19
13
22
Newcastle United
10
6
2
2
18
8
20
Manchester City
10
6
2
2
21
14
20
Bournemouth
10
5
3
2
12
7
18
Nottingham Forest
10
5
3
2
12
8
18
Fulham
11
4
5
2
18
17
17
Chelsea
10
4
4
2
17
13
16
Manchester United
11
5
1
5
16
17
16
Brighton
10
3
6
1
14
13
15
Tottenham Hotspur
11
4
2
5
26
21
14
West Ham United
11
4
2
5
16
24
14
Crystal Palace
11
2
5
4
10
17
11
Everton
10
2
4
4
9
11
10
Leicester City
11
2
3
6
11
19
9
Wolverhampton Wanderers
10
2
1
7
14
23
7
Ipswich Town
11
1
4
6
8
18
7
Southampton
10
1
1
8
7
27
4
Compare that statistic with how Chelsea are faring away.
Despite stumbling a little of late, with two points from their past three games on the road, Maresca’s team are third, with only three fewer away points than league leaders Liverpool, albeit having played one game more.
Away form table 2024-25
Team
Played
Won
Drawn
Lost
Goals for
Goals against
Points
Liverpool
10
7
3
0
28
12
24
Nottingham Forest
11
7
2
2
18
12
23
Chelsea
11
6
3
2
24
13
21
Arsenal
11
5
4
2
21
12
19
Newcastle United
11
5
3
3
19
14
18
Bournemouth
11
4
4
3
20
18
16
Brighton
11
4
4
3
18
16
16
Manchester City
11
4
3
4
17
15
15
Crystal Palace
10
3
4
3
13
11
13
Fulham
10
3
4
3
14
13
13
Aston Villa
10
4
1
5
12
19
13
West Ham United
10
3
3
4
11
17
12
Tottenham Hotspur
10
3
1
6
17
11
10
Manchester United
10
2
4
4
10
12
10
Ipswich Town
10
2
3
5
12
19
9
Wolverhampton Wanderers
11
2
3
6
17
25
9
Everton
10
1
4
5
6
15
7
Brentford
10
1
2
7
11
16
5
Leicester City
10
1
2
7
12
27
5
Southampton
11
0
2
9
6
20
2
Maresca is aware of the problem.
Asked by The Athletic at his pre-match press conference on Friday about the importance of picking up more victories at Stamford Bridge in the second half of the season, he replied: “For sure, we need to win games (at home).
“Now, if we win all the games away and we draw some games at home, it doesn’t matter, but in terms of balance, for sure, we need to win games. We also need our people, our fans, with us; they can see the effort of the team every game but at the end of the game when we win, we are all happy, and hopefully we can give them three points on Monday.”
Maresca is not the only football coach to suffer the frustration of a significant difference between their team’s home and away form. Just a few miles down the road in west London, Brentford’s Thomas Frank could argue he has the most justification to be irked this season, given the huge disparity between their results. A formidable outfit in familiar surroundings (third, with 23 points), their recent win at rock-bottom Southampton is Brentford’s only one in 10 matches on their travels.
Unlike Frank, though, there is a lot of expectation on a Chelsea head coach to deliver wins home and away. But to get fans truly onside, it is particularly important to be picking up three points consistently at Stamford Bridge. Yes, the away support is very influential because that group tends to be made up of the hardcore. But many more Chelsea fans attend home matches than go on the road, and that makes for more people who can make their feelings known.
This week’s fixture serves as a good reminder of that.
Mauricio Pochettino’s team got booed off at both half-time and full time in the corresponding game last season, as they were beaten 4-2. There were chants in support of Chelsea’s previous owner Roman Abramovich — as well as the club’s most successful head coach, Jose Mourinho — during the 90 minutes that February day.
Wolves won at Stamford Bridge in the February of last season (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Pochettino did not taste defeat on home soil again and the season ended on a positive note with five straight wins, but he never forged a great bond with the fanbase during his one year in the dugout.
Maresca has made a greater effort to do so since being named Pochettino’s replacement in June. Unlike his predecessor, the Italian has regularly gone on the pitch to acknowledge the supporters, and those shows of appreciation have worked. It was only last month that the crowd were singing “We’ve got our Chelsea back” in appreciation of what they were seeing.
But that song has disappeared, along with the feel-good factor, over the past four weeks. Should Chelsea struggle again on Monday night, it will not be surprising if the moans and groans crank up a notch.
Chelsea have six more points than at this stage (after 21 matches) last season. They have also scored seven more goals away than at home (24 to 17), having played only one game more. So is there any evidence to show if Chelsea are doing anything differently, and to explain why?
Comparing the two records on a variety of data, the output is a little mixed.
Obviously, the quality of opposition Chelsea have faced in their home and away matches can skew things. However, it should still be highlighted they boast more possession, territorial dominance (field tilt) and pressing intensity (PPDA) on their travels than when playing at Stamford Bridge.
This suggests they are more comfortable using Maresca’s tactics in away matches, where they perhaps get more space in transition and the games can be open. That said, there are fewer examples of winning the ball high up the pitch (possession won in the attacking third) in away matches and a greater number of both shots and direct attacks at home.
Maresca says he has spotted a difference in the team himself.
“Probably when we play away, against teams that sit back, we are more calm because we don’t rush,” he said. “When we are at home, sometimes we want to play quick, because we want to show the fans that we want to be quick. This is a mistake against teams that sit back but when teams press higher, you can attack quick.
“Against Bournemouth (on Tuesday, when Chelsea scored first, fell behind, and snatched a point in added time), they were high pressing and we attacked so many times aggressively with Nico (Nicolas Jackson), Cole (Palmer) and Enzo (Fernandez). It depends a little bit but, probably away, because of the behaviour of the other team, we could be better (than at Stamford Bridge).”
Chelsea’s issues playing on their own pitch are not new.
Since they last won the Premier League eight years ago, they have only once averaged over two points per game at Stamford Bridge — a barometer for a strong home record — and that was back in 2018-19.
What should be of concern for Maresca is how his record after 10 home fixtures compares with other Chelsea managers at that point over the previous nine seasons. The chart below includes that 2016-17 title-winning campaign under Antonio Conte as a measure of the standards the club used to set.
As you can see, only 2019-20 under Frank Lampard and Pochettino last term are worse than Maresca’s return so far in his debut year.
Home form first 10 games last 9 seasons
Season
Manager
Won
Drawn
Lost
Goals for
Goals against
Points
2016-17
Antonio Conte
9
0
1
28
6
27
2017-18
Antonio Conte
7
1
2
16
7
22
2018-19
Maurizio Sarri
6
3
1
19
8
21
2021-22
Thomas Tuchel
5
4
1
23
8
19
2022-23
Graham Potter/Tuchel
5
3
2
13
7
18
2020-21
Frank Lampard/Tuchel
4
4
2
19
11
16
2024-25
Enzo Maresca
4
4
2
17
13
16
2023-24
Mauricio Pochettino
4
3
3
17
14
15
2019-20
Frank Lampard
4
2
4
11
10
14
After Chelsea lost away for only the second time in the league this season, at Ipswich on December 30, Opta’s league prediction model — which estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position by using the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), betting market odds and Opta’s power rankings and simulating the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times — still rated their chances of finishing in the top four at 78.5 per cent.
Just over two weeks later, that figure has plummeted to 36.8 per cent.
It’s the same number as for Nottingham Forest, who are third, and smaller than those of Newcastle (47.9 per cent) and Manchester City (53.5 per cent) in fourth and sixth respectively. For fifth-placed Chelsea to get back on an upward curve, they need to begin winning regularly at home.
It helps that, of their nine remaining top-flight games at Stamford Bridge, eight are against clubs currently 12th or below in the table, with only leaders Liverpool to visit from its upper echelons. That provides an opportunity for improvement.
But getting the better of Wolves would be a good place to start.
