Vesper

I had posted this in the wrong forum Chelsea chase secret £50m transfer from Premier League rivals - 'Agents involved hopeful' https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1225279/Chelsea-transfer-news-secret-50million-January-signing-Frank-Lampard-Kaveh-Solhekol probably bollocks BUT IF it is not (and it deffo would explain why we are dithering on Ake's buyback clause) I can only think of two CB's who it could be (literally there are no others, ZERO in the £50m range who are also 'young' ie. surely 25yo or most likely younger, as 26yo's and up are NOT young) 1. (I can but dream) is Caglar Söyüncü or 2. Issa Diop of West Ham In fact the ONLY CB's in the entire EPL worth £50m and up are VVD, Laporte, Rudiger, Maguire, Sanchez (I am not a fan at all, but he would cost a tonne for any club to buy), Söyüncü, Diop, Ake and Mings (maybe, not for me and is 27yo in 2 months, so deffo NOT 'young') plus Stones (he would cost it, but is so NOT worth it IMHO, I think he and Maguire are the most overpriced CB's in the world), plus Joe Gomez (zero chance he is the one in the article), and finally (some may be shocked but I so so stand by this valuation) Tomori (who I rate around £60-65m atm and could go up much higher) 12 at most, that's it, 13 if you stretch it with Zouma (who I rate around £40m or so) Toby Alderweireld is too old now, and Matip is not worth £50m IMHO, plus he only has one full sub 30yo season left I would love to swap out Zouma and especially AC for any two out of these 3 (in order of preference) 1 Söyüncü 23yo 2 Diop (turns 23yo tomorrow) 3 Ake (25yo on February 18, his huge advantage is that he is left-footed and can play LB in a pinch) In fact (and this may also shock some here) If would give up all 3 of our 4 main CB's (only Tomori stays) in exchange for those 3 IF that was the only way to get all three Time marches on and the cold hard fact is Rüdiger only has (after this season) only 2 full sub 30yo seasons left, so basically 3 truly peak years after this one (I deffo count a 29/30 yo season as peak, 30/31 and beyond is where it starts to get dicey in the EPL at highest levels, as the only two over 28yo CB's in the EPl I rate at all are Alderweireld (soon 31 so will start to fall off next season or surely the one after next) and the just turned 32yo Jonny Evans (this is probably his last good year.) Even all the currently 29yo CB's are also shit (and not due to age, lol), you have to get to the 28yo's (VVD for instance) and younger to find class. A Chels CB squadron of Söyüncü, Tomori (22yo), Diop, Ake and then, in the pipeline, Guehi (turns 20yo this coming summer) and Ampadu, also 20yo this coming summer, at the very end, (and I do say hopefully, although he may end up a DMF and I am not sold on him atm, which hopefully changes soon) is STRONG as hell in a year or two, really strong, like (provided we sort the fullbacks (especially LB!!), MF, wingers and CF) title challenging down the road strong.

delete, wrong forum

Ashley Young is garbage nothing more to add on that

Methodology Scientific assessment of football players’ transfer value Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson https://football-observatory.com/IMG/pdf/note01en.pdf Introduction Transfer indemnities have steadily grown during the last decades in parallel with the economic development of professional football. This research note presents the scientific approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to assess from a predictive perspective the transfer value of professional players. When we first investigated this vast field in 2010, we did not think it would be possible to obtain such convincing results. The high explicative power of the econometric approach developed indicates that the degree of rationality of the football transfer market is important. Most of transactions follow a predictable logic, which is possible to model. Within a very dynamic context, the greatest challenge from a predictive standpoint resides in the ability to anticipate the level of inflation of costs. This difficulty is all the more tricky as inflation does not intervene in a linear manner in time or according to market segments. However, as price determinants are stable, this does not recall into question the relevance of the approach developed. Predicting interest By speaking with market actors, it has become clear that the economic situation of both the releasing and recruiting clubs has a major influence in determining the transfer price. From a predictive standpoint, even before assessing the transfer value, it is thus necessary to ascertain the type of team that is most likely to have an interest for a given player. This step is not necessary if the actual or potential recruiting team is known. The first step of our approach consists of a multiple linear regression whose dependent variable is the economic level of the recruiting club. The sample used comprises more than 2,491 fee paying transfers having involved big-5 league players that took place between July 2011 and August 2018. Twice as many paid transfers are included in the model developed to assess transfer values at worldwide level. These samples are renewed every six months by taking into account transactions carried out during the last transfer window. After the elimination of some outliers, the statistical model for estimating the most likely economic level of the recruiting club comprises 2,241 transactions. It includes 21 variables referring to the following elements: • Activity in clubs and national teams • Club and national team results • Age • Position • League of employment • Economic level of the releasing club To optimise the solidity of the model and its predictive capabilities, only significant variables were retained. The model obtained is very significant as shown by the Fischer F test (p<0.0000). The economic level of the projected recruiting club is correlated by 54% with the level actually observed for transfers included in the sample. Predicting values The second step of our approach consists of estimating the transfer value of professional footballers as such. The multiple linear regression developed for this purpose comprises 36 variables referring to the same areas to those used to estimate the economic level of the recruiting club. Moreover, the following further domains were considered: • Contract duration • Year of transfer • Book value • Loan status • Nationality • Economic level of the recruiting club (estimated if unknown) After the removal of some outliers, the sample includes 2,249 transactions. All the variables retained have an error probability of less than 1%. This is reflected in a very high statistical significance and a high level of predictive capability. At big-5 league level, since the first applications of more rudimentary models in 2013, the correlation between values estimated and fees paid has constantly been above 75%. The model built is again very significant as indicated by the Fischer F test (p<0.0000). The estimated values correlate strongly with the actual transfer fees. The adjusted coefficient of determination reaches 86%. Conclusion The pioneering approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory in the field of the scientific evaluation of transfer values has a wide range of uses. Market actors avail of it for: (1) Transfer negotiations In a highly speculative context where fake information is often leaked by clubs, agents and the various media involved, it is very useful to base oneself on an objective value with which to define an opening price. The projection of future values can also be beneficial, notably when it comes to the negotiation of add-ons. (2) Contractual negotiations Thanks to the algorithm developed, it is possible to envisage likely scenarios on the future transfer values of players. This approach is particularly useful in defining the level of salary offered to a player without involving excessive risk or in determining the optimum length of a new contract. (3) Transfer litigation Our algorithm is highly suited to situations of litigation over transfer amounts. For example, in fixing an indemnity fee in case of a unilateral breach of contract on a player’s part, when former clubs have a right to a percentage fee for players sold on or exchanged, as well as when footballers are entitled to a share of the fee for their own transfer. (4) Credit negotiations The objective and independent estimate of transfer values also proves useful when negotiating credits. Indeed, the transfer value of the squad constitutes a reliable indicator of the ability of a club to honour their engagements. This is not necessarily the case when credit worthiness is based on players’ book value. A model assessing the fee paying transfer’s probability was also developed. (5) Taking out insurance With the increase in transfer costs, it is becoming more and more worthwhile to take out insurance policies covering the possibility of the loss of value of a player, notably through injury. Thanks to our algorithm, we can monitor precisely the current and future values of players under contract. (6) Club sale or purchase For most of the teams worldwide, players are the major asset. An objective and neutral estimate of the overall transfer value of squad members is a key criterion to be considered when it comes to negotiate the buying or selling of a club. Aside from any applications by market actors, our approach and independence allows us to bring more transparency and objectivity to transfer operations. Indeed, up until the present, no other organisation is capable of judging the validity of transactions on a robust and credible scientific basis. The growing recognition by actors in the game, the media and the public at large confirms the merits and interest of our approach.

'If I was Phil Jones, I would consider retiring tomorrow': Manchester United fans slam defender after humiliating attempt to tackle Kevin De Bruyne in Carabao Cup semi-finals https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-7862741/Manchester-United-fans-slam-defender-humiliating-attempt-tackle-Kevin-Bruyne.html

SMS has rebounded, is playing great I rate him far above Belotti (two different positions obviously) also, Belotti would be crazy expensive yet again I do rate Belotti, just nowhere near (striker-wise) Lautaro (ffs would LOVE to have him here, even more than Werner, he has been the most improved player in Europe this season IMHO) or Werner or Icardi (yes I still love him, cunt wife and all, and he is banging them in like crazy again) or Dybala (not a pure CF, more of a SS) that Lazio side is really dangerous this year, great managerial job by Inzaghi just ask Juve if Lazio win their game in hand (versus a pretty middle of the road Verona side), they are only 3 points off of the top of the Serie A table (Inter and Juve) The top 12 places in Serie A are basically perfectly (or nearly so) in order of play for the teams so far this year, which is a huge rarity for any league Napoli and AC Milan have been poor Atalanta has been the number underrated team in Europe for 3 years running, they do amazing well with their very limited resources Cagliari and Parma have been the big surprises (Parma a lot to due with one of my favourite young players on the planet, Dejan Kulusevski (turns 20 at the end of April), who is on loan from (now) Juve, who just bought him from...drum roll..... Atalanta) I was sickened that we made zero moves for him, he is the best young Swede in ages, tall, pacey as hell, left-footed RW with a cannon shot and great passing instincts) I think he might turn into a monster under Sarri at Juve, time will tell, they got him for only £28m after the 6 month loan fee was deducted, and he is capable of playing CF as well

CIES Football Observatoryn°279 - 07/01/2019 Values Mbappé valued at €265 million by CIES Football Observatory algorithm The CIES Football Observatory opens a new exciting decade of football analytics with the exclusive publication of its traditional list of the big-5 league players with the greatest estimated transfer values. At the top three positions of the table are Kylian Mbappé (France and Paris St-Germain), Raheem Sterling (England and Manchester City), as well Mohammed Salah (Egypt and Liverpool). Issue number 279 of the Weekly Post presents the 166 footballers in the big-5 valued at more than €50 million. Per position, the most expensive players from a transfer value perspective are Alisson Becker for goalkeepers (€87 M), Virgil van Dijk for centre backs (€93 M), Trent Alexander-Arnold for full backs (€110 M), James Maddison for midfielders (€112 M) and Kylian Mbappé for forwards (€265 M). Eleven out of the 20 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of at least €100 million play for English Premier League clubs. There are at least two players worth more than €100 M are in each of the remaining big-5 leagues: three in the Liga (Messi, Griezmann and João Felix), two in the Ligue 1 (Mbappé and Neymar), two in the Serie A (Martínez and Lukaku), as well as two in the Bundesliga (Sancho and Werner). More information about the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team to estimate transfer values on a scientific basis is available in this methodological note. Top estimated transfer values, big-5, 06/01/2020 (€ million) About the CIES Football Observatory The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information. About the CIES The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information. CIES – Centre International d’Étude du Sport Avenue DuPeyrou 1, 2000 Neuchâtel Switzerland Phone +41 32 718 39 00 - Fax +41 32 718 39 01 Email: [email protected]

We would get a better rate of return renting him out to bored Knightsbridge and Belgravia housewives for a bit of the old in-out after a hard tackle in the bedroom.

His agent trying to pull the old 'look at all the men looking at the fit bird you could have if you just would commit to spending some quid on her' trick.

Chelsea accounts show club paid out £26.6million over Conte sacking https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/chelsea-accounts-show-club-paid-out-ps266million-over-conte-sacking Hacks No other way to put it. They may be good on sponsorship deals, but if a human employee is involved (player, manager, other personnel, etc.) the outcome is far, far too often just shambolic.

So they caved and will pay his full Marina special salary rate?

I have never seen it quoted in euros. £80m has been the price for ages. Would make zero sense for an English player to be quoted in euros for another English team. Due to the fact he turns 28yo 3 months into next season, anything over £50m (I say £40m but I will toss on a £10m homegrown intraleague transfer tax to be grudgingly realistic) is a pure ripoff. If you transplant his stats onto another EPL winger his age then there is almost no way that winger's price of £80m would not be laughed out of the pub. £80m would make Zaha the second most expensive incoming EPL transfer ever, trailing only Pogba. It is madness considering his age and his historical outputs IMHO. He is not some singularly rare missing link type for a top 5 club looking for a fine-tuned final puzzle piece to aid in a treble attempt (like Willian was for Barca in summer 2018, due to his hardcore defensive trackback and wing play needed to balance off some frailties they had.) £80m Zaha is a luxury buy for a team like us who are still 2 or 3 seasons away from entering peak zone. A little over 2 and half years from now Zaha will be 30yo.

Luis Suárez Robert Lewandowski Lewandowski is also in a harder league overall and he has a less gifted team (with massive injury issues as well) backing him than Suárez does

oki, this makes sense as to why no more talk about Boga, BUT someone is fucking full of shit 15m euros is a huge increase from £3.5m CHELSEA NOT CONSIDERING €15M DEAL FOR BOGA https://readchelsea.com/2020/01/06/chelsea-not-considering-e15m-deal-for-boga/ versus Barcelona eye up bid for former Chelsea youngster Jeremie Boga… but Frank Lampard can hijack the deal for just £3.5million thanks to buyback clause https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-7785209/Chelsea-hijack-bid-Barcelona-target-Jeremie-Boga.html

What do you think Lampard would do if we somehow (it will take a huge pile of cash to flip Lyon) did pull Dembele thsi month? 1. Rotate? 2. Give Dembele a few weeks to settle in and make him the starter until (and if) he proves he is not that good? 3. Use him only (or mostly) as a pure backup?

I will not be shocked if come February 1st, our CF's are Tammy, Bats, and an very, very pissed off Giroud only thing that 100% for sure would change that is Lyon changing their mind and letting Dembele go this month, and to do that, we would have to stupidly pay Morata-level cash (or near it)

I think there are 4 players that Lampard wants over the next 2 summers LB Chilwell (very hard to sign and zero clue who (if anyone) we move for if not him) DMF Declan Rice RW Sancho (super hard to sign, and zero clue if it is not him, I truly do not think that Lamps rates Zaha at all) CF Moussa Dembele (I think he prefers hm over Werner, who is much harder to sign, but I also absolute think there is only a very tiny chance Dembele comes this window) IF he wants Ake, he is doing a great job of hiding it (as he has said he wants AC to stay and fight for his place) and I think he is making a big mistake, as Ake would allow us to ditch one of the dregs LB's as well I think, as I cannot see Ake as a LB being any worse than what we have, BUT I may be totally wrong on that, I do admit this. For AMF I have no clue, as he probably thinks he will roll with Mount and RLC when RLC comes back I would not put any other players in this category (although one may shoot out of the blue that none of us have a clue on) I wish to hell we would look so so hard at Zaniolo as he is left-footed, young, big, great shot and can play AMF and RW plus we have scouted him before multiple times

CHELSEA Chelsea: Fans want club to go after Hakim Ziyech this month https://www.footballtransfertavern.com/premier-league/chelsea/chelsea-fans-want-club-to-go-after-hakim-ziyech-this-month/ Another random toss-out It will not stop until the window closes. I can honestly say that I have zero clue who we buy or even if we buy anyone. Same for selling. Lots of talk and speculation, zero concrete moves. Would not be shocked to even see the turgid Drinkwater back at the club as no team is going to loan him plus pay all of his crazy wages. Thanks Marina!!

Leeds need a real striker, Bamford is poor. Ben White has looked decent at CB, but not superb.

2nd half has been an utter reversal, Arse entirely on the front foot.

So many chances for Leeds Need to be more ruthless

we get to see what Jarrod Bowen is made of just turned 23yo left-footed RW who is on fire in the Championship

FA Cup Arse v Leeds HD Streams http://www.sportnews.to/sports/2020/fa-cup-arsenal-vs-leeds-united-s2/ https://www.totalsportek.com/arsenal-streams/ https://www.ronaldo7.net/video/sports-live/sport-live-stream.html

that was fast we were the 2nd away team drawn out