cosmicway

Computer generated win probabilities (fair prices): City = 36.2% (2.76) Real = 25.8% (3.88) PSG = 22.2% (4.50) CFC = 15.8% (6.33) The bookies say: City = 2.25 (= for burglars) PSG = 4.33 Real = 5.00 CFC = 5.50 Apart from the glaring mistake of the ratings with PSG which I 'did not take into account, the rest of the ratings if true suggest City but it's not a value bet. Neither PSG or Chelsea, if those ratings are true. Real is a value bet for winning the champions league. But in reality City too are overrated and we are underrated. So my conclusion is that at the prices offered both Real and Chelsea are good bets (at this hour).

The elo ratings, to which the bookies assign gravity, say: REAL = 1047 Chelsea = 1887 CITY = 2020 PSG = 1867 The PSG number is outrageous - they made PSG into Luton town ! CFC too low compared to REAL. We used to be level pegging at 1900 some weeks ago. CITY is on the high side, as also witnessed today. PSG in France are not doing well. They are second to Lille and I switched off the tv when Lille were playing Ajaj for the Europa. Even if PSG win the French championship in the end it's not good enough. But in Europe it's a different proposition. I will make the PSG rating 1950 now (c.f. Barcelona are 1932 it says) and I 'm going to look what probabilities the ratings suggest.

I prefer City. Real also prefer City.

He has good distribution. Mendy is the one with the poor distribution.

Kepa was called to action twice. One easy shot and the header in extra time - should have blocked, was pushed wide for a throw in.

We lost to WBA because we were down to ten men and had to play attack, after their equalizer (was a fluke). Also WBA played really well.

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If we believe the bookies prices for the outright win in the champions league, the European cup should be on its way to the bridge now. As for City was not pumped up for today, we had more reasons than they have to concentrate more on our other efforts (4th place, ch. league).

Give us the European cup now.

Is this a two leg match ?

You 've been listening to the lament of the Liverpudlian commentator. Real defense gave in on a number of occasions but the Liverpudlians were shooting the pigeons. Real are good at passing game under press by the opponents as well - something Tuchel is trying to emulate. We already kicked out two out of four of the big teams of Spain. Why not Real too ?

I don't know. It's not my strong point. Last time I left egg faced. If Giroud had scored that late goal for France I would at least have the winner.

Lay Pep.

Premature champions league final. The real one is going to be Chelsea v. PSG but as city are close thirds, this will be a good trial.

The result was an April fool but the qualification was real. Porto came to play kickbox and we did not even try to organize our attacks - only if something went through.

We should win 3-0.

Of course not ? I 'd rather have them than Madrid.

Willian was a great player (but Ronaldo and Messi were better). Of course I don't thin he could be useful anymore. Werner needs a miracle of Tino.

In the last matches of the last period he was better than that.

Barkley ?

You 'd rather have the Looserpoolians then.

Mbappe did a Werner in the last minute of PSG v. Barcelona. I believe this match was a fix - to lessen the tears of the Barcelonistas.

3-2 - pens, 4-3, 5-4 for Bayern are all likelihoods. If we are told that Bayern qualified but the scoreline was hidden form us, a 2-0 win or a 3-1 win would be more plausible guesses. Does n't look likely.

It's a bad scoreline. Essentially Bayern have to crush PSG. 2-0, 3-0.

Why is it worst scenario ? These are the teams.