Politics & Stuff

[Fernando 6,585]

14 hours ago, Vesper said:

Many of the tariffs did not full take effect until recently or were 'TACO'd (ie Trump Always Chickens Out) and kicked down the road. Also many of the large firms built up inventory on a pre-tariff basis but those inventories will soon be gone, or are gone already.

Every time the US has tried a high tariff regime in modern times, it has been disastrous.

Trump, the wilfully ignorant economic 'thinker', thinks Smoot-Hawley was wonderful. 🤪

Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act

The Tariff Act of 1930, also known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, was a protectionist trade measure signed into law in the United States by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. Named after its chief congressional sponsors, Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, the act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods in an effort to shield American industries from foreign competition during the onset of the Great Depression, which had started in October 1929.

Hoover signed the bill against the advice of many senior economists, yielding to pressure from his party and business leaders. Intended to bolster domestic employment and manufacturing, the tariffs instead deepened the Depression because the U.S.'s trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, leading to U.S. exports and global trade plummeting. Economists and historians widely regard the act as a policy misstep, and it remains a cautionary example of protectionist policy in modern economic debates. It was followed by more liberal trade agreements, such as the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.

Well that is the theory. 

If this is correct then we should start filling the pinch next year. 

We shall see what happens then. But as far as retaliated tariffs I think only China and EU can do something, but so far they have played the game. 

Let's have this discussion next year and see how things stand because as you mentioned there was inventory pulled forward and that should be finishing soon. 

[Fernando 6,585]

12 hours ago, Vesper said:

Cooking the Inflation and Jobs Numbers

Today on TAP: There are some genuine problems with BLS methods. A hack Trump appointee is not the answer.

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2025-08-13-cooking-inflation-jobs-numbers-trump-bls/

 

Trump’s appointment of a hack loyalist, E.J. Antoni of the Heritage Foundation, to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics could actually lead to some interesting debates if Trump’s goal were not to rig the data. The BLS derives the Consumer Price Index by sampling tens of thousands of actual prices in different parts of the country, and then weighting them to create a “market basket” of typical consumer purchases. To calculate the unemployment rate, the BLS conducts two different surveys, one of households and the other of employers.

Antoni has objected that the BLS often issues major revisions after the initial CPI numbers, because some sources are slower to report than others. Likewise jobs numbers. He recently called for the BLS to issue its own reports quarterly rather than monthly.

More mainstream critics than Antoni have pointed out that the BLS methodology is outmoded in an era when large retailers keep all of their prices on computers updated minute to minute. MIT economists Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon have created a “Billion Prices Project,” which scrapes daily online pricing data from retailers to compute real-time inflation. Many other economists have also noted that the employer survey on jobs sometimes contradicts the household survey.

The problem, however, is that Trump did not appoint Antoni to make technical refinements for the sake of better data. He appointed him to cook the numbers. And both things are not possible.

The consumer price numbers that BLS released this week were pretty mixed. The July increase was only 0.2 percent, down from the June rate of 0.3 percent. But core inflation, less food and energy, rose at a 3.1 percent annual rate, which is above the previous several months.

Whatever the eventual effect of Trump’s tariffs, it hasn’t fully shown up in the CPI. So it’s awfully hard, even for Trump, to contend that his enemies have rigged the statistics when the numbers are bad but that the figures are legitimate when they are good.

One of the main consumers of the BLS price data is the Federal Reserve. The Fed looks closely at inflation trends in deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates or keep them the same. The fact that inflation was relatively low in July suggests that the Fed could well make a modest cut in rates at its September meeting, though rising core inflation may cut against that.

The Fed’s economists will be looking intently at any adjustments that Antoni tries to make, either in BLS methods or in revisions after the fact. The Fed system employs some 500 Ph.D. economists and a total of more than 15,000 professional employees, dwarfing the BLS. The Fed could develop its own data series on jobs and prices, reinforcing the role of the Fed as one of the few centers of policy and expertise that Trump doesn’t control. If Antoni succeeds in rigging the BLS numbers, businesses and scholars, as well as the Fed itself, would rely on the Fed’s numbers.

The problem, however, as economist Teresa Ghilarducci points out, is that a variety of laws specify the CPI as the basis for adjustments in everything from Social Security checks, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), annual increases for federal and military pensions, veterans’ benefits, federal tax brackets and penalties, state minimum wages, HUD housing subsidies, and collective-bargaining agreements across the private sector.

So while the Fed can help keep the BLS honest, there is no substitute for data that is free from political manipulation.

Like the article I'm also skeptical of that guy, however the guy they fired was incompetent as well. How is it possible that every month they had major revision on their numbers. 

If anything the past guy rig the BLS numbers. As well this new guy might do the same.....

[Vesper 30,235]

7 hours ago, Fernando said:

Like the article I'm also skeptical of that guy, however the guy they fired was incompetent as well. How is it possible that every month they had major revision on their numbers. 

If anything the past guy rig the BLS numbers. As well this new guy might do the same.....

the numbers are always revised as more data comes in, it has been like that for decades

and Trump can kiss his ludicrous calls for interest rate cuts good-bye

[Vesper 30,235]

US Hits Highest Layoffs Since COVID

https://www.newsweek.com/us-hits-highest-layoffs-since-covid-2111794

U.S. layoffs surged in July to their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In July, there were 62,075 job cuts announced, according to a report by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That's a 29 percent jump from June and 140 percent higher than the 25,885 announced in July 2024.

The July figure is well above the post-pandemic average for the month (23,584 between 2021 and 2024) and slightly higher than the past decade's July average of 60,398. It pushes the 2025 total to 806,383 layoffs—a 75 percent increase compared with the same period last year and already 6 percent higher than all of 2024. It's the highest January-to-July figure since 2020, when pandemic shutdowns drove layoffs above 1.8 million.

The surge in layoffs in 2025 is due to a mix of government downsizing, corporate restructuring and the growing effects of artificial intelligence. Public agencies, tech firms and retailers are leading the cuts.

"We are seeing the federal budget cuts implemented by DOGE impact nonprofits and health care in addition to the government. AI was cited for over 10,000 cuts last month, and tariff concerns have impacted nearly 6,000 jobs this year," said Andrew Challenger, a senior vice president and labor expert at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Where Are the Layoffs Happening?

The majority of layoffs this year have been from the federal government—a total of 292,294 since the year started—as President Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) continues its mission to scale down the size of numerous agencies. There have also been knock-on effects for contractors and organizations reliant on public funding, which the report calls the "DOGE Downstream Impact."

Private sector cuts have been concentrated in industries under structural pressure. Technology and telecom firms are reducing head count as they shift investment toward AI and cloud infrastructure. Retailers have been hit by softer discretionary spending, higher costs and changing consumer habits, prompting store closures. Other sectors above historical layoff norms include finance, business services and transportation, where companies are scaling back capacity after pandemic-era expansions.

Reasons Behind the Cuts

 

Economic conditions—including inflation, shifting demand and global uncertainty—have been cited in more than 170,000 job cuts so far this year. Business restructuring, store or plant closures, and bankruptcies have also played a major role.

Fabian Stephany, an assistant professor for AI and work at the University of Oxford, told Newsweek the current wave of layoffs was best understood as a combination of "late-cycle cost discipline and post-pandemic normalization," rather than a sign of a full-scale employment downturn.

"Many firms are correcting for the overhiring of 2021 to 2022 while protecting margins through productivity gains, some of which are enabled by automation," he said.

Technological change is another driver. Automation and AI have been linked to more than 20,000 layoffs in 2025, with another 10,000 explicitly attributed to AI.

Stephany said AI's immediate effects were most visible in "transactional, routine, and standardized work—particularly in junior roles."

Jason Leverant, the COO and president of AtWork Group, told Newsweek that automation tended to hit jobs that fell into what he called the "Three D's": dull, dirty or dangerous. Many white-collar positions in the "dull" category are already being replaced by AI tools.

Both Leverant and Stephany said AI would keep reshaping the labor market this year. "The likely path is steady, incremental reshaping of roles through attrition and slower hiring, rather than sharp spikes in AI-related layoffs," Stephany said.

Labor Market Outlook

Despite the scale of layoffs, unemployment remains in the low 4 percent range, suggesting that many displaced workers are having luck finding new roles.

But Leverant said that not all workers were likely to transition quickly. "I expect to see extended periods of unemployment for people in middle-management and highly specialized roles where openings are much more limited," he said.

If cuts continue at the current pace, unemployment could edge higher later this year. Leverant said that while the concentration of layoffs in the government sector gave him some confidence in the health of private sector hiring, "if job cuts continue and the unemployment rate rises, it will only spark further concern, uncertainty, and potential volatility in the markets, creating a vicious cycle that we need to break."

[Thor 2,732]

Real wage growth is the reason for a lot of cuts lately. 
 

Inflation being down is because it’s stagnated and people aren’t getting the salaries they were in 21 and 22. 
 

Trumps plan to outgrow this debt in rapid time is an interesting one. I mean - it’s all the world has done the last 30 years. Why not just keep kicking the can down the road? 

[Vesper 30,235]

Trump stirs far-right rage despite FBI deprioritizing extremist threat

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/11/trump-far-right-fbi

Experts say white supremacists have benefited from president’s policies but anger remains among neo-Nazis

Donald Trump has faced an onslaught of criticism from opponents and Maga diehards alike, on issues such as Jeffrey Epstein, the war with Iran, and his steadfast alliance with Israel in the face of genocide. But among the ever dangerous far right, which has generally applauded Trump’s efforts to deport thousands of people a day, his actions of late have stirred rage among a group experts say has benefited greatly from his administration’s law-enforcement pivots.

The FBI, headed by Trump acolyte Kash Patel, has reassigned the jobs of thousands of agents and eviscerated parts of the bureau tasked with investigating rightwing extremists that are considered the most dangerous domestic security threat facing the US today. Those same types, which includes a locus of fascist street-fighting gangs known as active clubs and accelerationist neo-Nazis, increasingly view Trump as an enemy, but are freer than ever to organize – almost entirely due to changes instituted in his latest presidency.

“His alliance with Israel and Netanyahu is obviously problematic for antisemites, and there have always been questions about how dedicated Trump is to the cause of a white America,” said Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, referring to American rightwing extremists’ view of the president. “Frankly, white supremacists have never had it so good as they do now under Trump.” Bierich did concede the far right was “never outwardly fond of him”, they have celebrated Trump’s enthusiastic deployment of Ice raids.

On a neo-Nazi Telegram channel that has become a bellwether and influencer for active clubs around the world, Trump’s latest quip declaring he would not provide disaster relief in case of a natural disaster to states that do not support Israel struck a major nerve. “Israel first, America last,” it said in a post viewed several thousands of times by followers, with a headline associated with the story. In another adjacent account, neo-Nazis went further: “The fact that they even tried to put that in is disgusting.”

In recent years, neo-fascist groups such as Patriot Front – heavily allied to the active club movement – have used natural disaster cleanups as a way to recruit and launder their image as white saviors to “European” Americans. “What we know is these groups are emboldened and the federal government appears to be abandoning its efforts to monitor and surveil racists and white supremacists,” Beirich said. “They can certainly act with less concern about FBI interference, and we should expect there will be more violence and more activity on the streets from these groups given what the federal government has shut down.”

 

One of the president’s first moves, mere hours after his second inauguration in January, was to give full pardons to 1,500 people involved in the January 6 attack on Capitol Hill. Even research grants for academic and government researchers looking at the de-radicalization of extremists of every political persuasion have felt the force of Trump’s budgetary cuts. Yet with this backdrop of helpful policies, far-right activists have found reasons to part with Trump’s agenda. A near full-scale war with Iran earlier in the summer also set off a flurry of posts among some of the most hardcore and popular neo-Nazis who saw the latest geopolitical venture as a new, costly Iraq war.

“Both sides spent years hyperventilating over the undisputed lethality of Iran,” wrote one influential neo-Nazi propagandist channel on Telegram. “I’m just happy it doesn’t look like whites will be dying for Israel.” But it was a recent American Eagle ad featuring the actor Sydney Sweeney – one alluding to her jeans as a reference to physical, genetic genes – that has enraged the online hordes of the far right. One called it Maga’s blatant attempt to win back their support through “white coded media” in service of a broader agenda.

“Some Telegram propagandists have claimed that the Trump administration is explicitly attempting to appeal to white Americans to manipulate them further,” said Joshua Fisher-Birch, an analyst and expert on online extremists, “whether economically, politically, or while planning a new war.” According to Fisher-Birch, an influential channel with more than 2,000 subscribers within the far-right Telegram ecosystem, carried out a poll in mid-July about Trump and the Epstein files, which showed that 70% of its respondents said they did not support the president.

“The irony is that they should be celebrating Trump regardless,” said Beirich, “for the Ice raids, for appointing extremists like Darren Beattie and Stephen Miller, for putting Confederate statutes back up and assaulting DEI, not to mention the pardons.” Beattie, a senior state department official, has been linked to white nationalism, while Miller has been widely seen as the architect for the Trump administration’s hardline immigration policy and has long been lambasted for his racism “and white supremacist ideology”.

Beirich cited how Patriot Front and Blood Tribe, another public facing neo-Nazi group, are marching on American streets with regularity, while people like former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio – formerly imprisoned for his role in the January 6 attacks – have become regular speaking fixtures in official Republican circles. Fisher-Birch agreed that the far right was feeling the moment. “Many extreme right groups and propagandists certainly think that they have more latitude now than compared to a year ago,” he said. “However, it is also important to note that some groups are worried about being targeted for their antisemitism.”

Even so, there are others in the extremist world who still view Trump and the broader US government with skepticism, undeterred by recent FBI changes or the president’s general tone towards them. For example, the Base, an internationally proscribed neo-Nazi terrorist group with roots in the US, still sees Trump as a problem. “We don’t expect leniency from the Trump administration,” it wrote on one of its accounts earlier this year, referring to a nationwide crackdown on the group in the past. “It was Trump’s [department of justice] which conducted an aggressive nationwide dragnet targeting members of the Base in 2020.” It added: “By comparison, political pressure against the Base was minimal when Biden was president.”

[Vesper 30,235]

Israeli cyber official among eight arrested in Las Vegas child predator sweep

Tom Aleksandrovich, head of a division in Israel’s National Cyber Directorate, was detained this week during a professional conference he attended on behalf of the Israeli government

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjx0vgruxl

Las Vegas police said Saturday that Tom Aleksandrovich, head of a division in Israel’s National Cyber Directorate, was the senior official detained this week during a professional conference he attended on behalf of the Israeli government. He was questioned on suspicion of online pedophilia.

Aleksandrovich was among eight people arrested in a large-scale operation targeting online child predators, led by Las Vegas police, who also issued a public statement about the arrests.

 

The operation, part of the Nevada Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC) task force, included agents from the FBI’s Child Exploitation Task Force, Henderson and North Las Vegas police, Homeland Security Investigations, and the Nevada Attorney General’s office. All eight face felony charges of luring a child via computer for sexual acts. They were booked into the Henderson Detention Center, except one suspect who was booked into Clark County Detention Center.

Aleksandrovich attended the U.S. conference in an official capacity.

 

Authorities said he was released following questioning on Wednesday, returned to his hotel, and flew back to Israel within two days.

 

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

50 minutes ago, Vesper said:

Authorities said he was released following questioning on Wednesday, returned to his hotel, and flew back to Israel within two days.

A CBS News investigation has found that many accused American pedophiles flee to Israel, and bringing them to justice can be difficult. More than 60 have fled from the U.S. to Israel. They have been able to exploit a right known as the Law of Return, whereby any Jewish person can move to Israel to escape justice.

CBS News

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

 

[Vesper 30,235]

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

Holocaust survivor ''The Holocaust in Gaza is worse than the Nazi WW2 one''

 

[YorkshireBlue 3,281]

16 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Holocaust survivor ''The Holocaust in Gaza is worse than the Nazi WW2 one''

 

Sorry, that’s utter bollocks 

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

10 minutes ago, YorkshireBlue said:

Sorry, that’s utter bollocks 

Yes what does he know 🤪

[YorkshireBlue 3,281]

23 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Yes what does he know 🤪

It’s not what he knows, that’s bollocks is what he said, just talking fucking bollocks to suit an agenda as per fucking usual, saying it’s worse than one of the worst greatest atrocities that he survived makes him a fucking idiot

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

7 minutes ago, YorkshireBlue said:

It’s not what he knows, that’s bollocks is what he said, just talking fucking bollocks to suit an agenda as per fucking usual, saying it’s worse than one of the worst greatest atrocities that he survived makes him a fucking idiot

Sorry, that is bollocks. I'd rather take the word of a Jewish holocaust survivor many of which have said the same, than some random bloke from Yorkshire 🤣

[Fulham Broadway 17,336]

Trump going down the Biden route...

 

[Duppy Conqueror 1,543]

I don't know what's more embarrassing, Trump for Americans or Infantino for football fans. Never mind how much Charlie and the chocolate factory might have touched you as a child,you just don't suck off a oompa loopa infront of the world's media.

[Vesper 30,235]

Quarter of Labour members set to back Jeremy Corbyn’s new party

Survey finds 28 per cent considering voting for the former Labour leader’s new left-wing, pro-Gaza movement at next election

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-jeremy-corbyn-party-br96q7hk2

One in four Labour members could back Jeremy Corbyn’s party at the next general election.

Twenty-eight per cent of those surveyed said they were considering supporting the former Labour leader’s new left-wing, pro-Gaza movement, which is set to be launched formally in the autumn.

Corbyn announced the venture along with fellow MP Zarah Sultana in July, aiming to win over disaffected Labour voters. The pair will be heartened by polling from Survation, which shows the majority of Labour members want Sir Keir Starmer’s party to change direction.

Some 59 per cent said Starmer should pursue more left-wing policies, 2 per cent said he should move to the right, and 35 per cent thought he should move faster to deliver his current agenda.

While 28 per cent of members said they would potentially back Corbyn’s movement, a majority (51 per cent) thought a new party could split the left and boost the chances of a Conservative or Reform-led government.

About 14 per cent thought the new party would not have any impact on Labour’s chances, while 12 per cent said the only real risk was to the Green Party. Labour Party members tend to hold stronger political views than the parliamentary party, and so are more likely to be left-wing than MPs.

Corbyn welcomed the findings of the poll, which was conducted among 1,021 Labour members this month and commissioned by the LabourList website.

He said: “For too long, people have been denied a real political choice. Not any more: 700,000 people have already signed up to build a real alternative to inequality, poverty and war. One based on public ownership, wealth redistribution, housing justice and peace. This is just the beginning. We are an unstoppable movement and we are never going away.”

A Labour source defended the party’s performance and said Starmer was focused on creating “a fairer Britain for working people”.

Planning is under way for the official launch of Corbyn’s movement, which remains without a name but has been referred to by organisers as “Your Party”.

A location and date for the launch conference to formally establish the party along with leadership elections are still not confirmed. However, the founding process is being stewarded by Corbyn, Sultana and four other MPs elected last July who stood as independents on an explicitly pro-Gaza platform.

Diane Abbott, MP for Hackney North & Stoke Newington, said on Thursday that she advised Corbyn not to launch a new political party because she felt that it would struggle to succeed under the first-past-the-post system.

She told the Edinburgh International Book Festival: “There were people around Jeremy encouraging him to set up a new party and I told him not to. It’s very difficult under the first-past-the-post system for a new party to absolutely win. If it wasn’t first past the post then you can see how a new party could come through, but I understand why he did it.”

Abbott, who said last month that she would not be joining Corbyn’s party, despite the pair being longtime friends, describe Sultana as a lovely person who is full of energy. She added that the party could get votes from people who were not necessarily left-wing but were disappointed by Labour’s actions over the past year.

It emerged on Thursday that Labour has lost almost 200,000 members in the past five years. Figures published in the party’s annual accounts showed that it shed another 37,215 members last year, or about 10 per cent.

It means Labour’s membership was 333,235 at the end of last year, well down from its peak under Corbyn’s leadership of 532,046 at the end of 2019.

However, Reform UK’s accounts also showed a surge in party members, generating fees of £4.3 million. Donations to the party also rose from £1.3 million in 2023 to £5.8 million last year.

Some Labour figures have spoken out over the summer about the party’s first year in office. Sir Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, said the party needed to “really pick things up” after a “tough” 12 months.

Ian Byrne, the MP for Liverpool West Derby, this week criticised planned cuts to disability benefits and the winter fuel allowance that the government U-turned on.

He also urged the government to scrap the two-child benefit cap, telling The Big Issue magazine: “We just need to stop making political decisions which are suicidal on the doorstep.”

Sultana has compared the founding of the new left-wing political party to the creation of the NHS and extension of the right to vote to women. She said there had been “a lot of unofficial local groups” formed organically since the new party was promised, but that a “unitary” party structure was necessary.

“Otherwise it won’t be a cohesive project that unites the existing spectrum of movements and struggles,” she said in an interview with the New Left Review.

Sultana said the new party should not be led only by the six MPs, adding that, given five of them are male, it would risk being a “boys’ club”.

[Vesper 30,235]

Nigel Farage: This is a massive crisis. We need mass deportations

 

exclusive

The Reform UK leader believes he will have one shot at No 10 — and next week will make his biggest move yet

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-interview-reform-uk-v3lcnkbm9

 

Nigel Farage has had little time off this summer. Where most other politicians have been keen to head off for a much-needed break, he has spent most of it working — although not of his own volition.

“It has been a total catastrophic disaster,” he says, speaking in his constituency office in Clacton-on-Sea. “I tried to have a couple of weeks off. I was called away four times. I was having a week on the coast in Kent, I was having a week in Cornwall.

“Cornwall was important to me because all four of my adult children and grandchildren were there. Then there was a massive fire in Clacton. So I had to come back for that.

“And there were two other big donor visits and going to see JD [Vance, the US vice-president], which wasn’t a bad thing. I’m busy as hell.”

The Reform UK leader believes this is his “do or die” moment — his one shot at No 10. Britain, he says, is “going downhill very, very quickly” and there needs to be a “massive turnaround”. He argues he is the man to do it.

Two years ago such a statement would have been deemed fantasy. Now, with Reform having consistently led in the polls since April, it is no longer an unrealistic prospect. Sir Keir Starmer has even decided to treat him as the real leader of the opposition, all of which has served to give Farage an even bigger platform.

Next week, Farage will make his biggest move yet. On Tuesday he will publish his proposal for the mass deportation of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants. To describe the plans as aggressive is an understatement.

Farage’s plan begins with leaving the European Convention on Human Rights

TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER RICHARD POHLE

They include the arrest of asylum seekers on arrival, automatic detention and forced deportation, with no right of appeal, to countries such as Afghanistan and Eritrea.

There are plans for deals with third countries such as Rwanda, a “fallback” option of sending people to British overseas territories such as Ascension Island and new criminal offences for people who return to the UK or destroy their identity documents.

The NHS, HM Revenue & Customs and the DVLA will be required to share data automatically so illegal immigrants can be tracked down and arrested. Every element of the plan is contentious and it is likely to encounter huge practical, political and legal obstacles. Farage appears to embrace the controversy.

“The aim of this legislation is mass deportations,” Farage says. “We have a massive crisis in Britain. It is not only posing a national security threat but it’s leading to public anger that frankly is not very far away from disorder. There is only one way to stop people coming into Britain and that is to detain them and deport them.”

Farage’s plan begins with leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and scrapping the Human Rights Act. This, he says, is relatively straightforward.

“It’s not a very difficult thing to do,” he says. “There isn’t any renegotiation agreement that needs to be done or anything like that. This can be done reasonably quickly.”

Migrants run to board a smuggler’s boat on the beach of Gravelines, northern France, last week

SAMEER AL DOUMY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The second part of Farage’s plan is to introduce a British Bill of Rights. Gone will be any mention of human rights from the statute books. In its place will be terms such as liberty and freedom of expression. “The freedom to do everything, unless there’s a law that says you can’t,” he says. “The opposite to that is the concept of human rights, which are state-given.”

Britain would also derogate from the Refugee Convention, the UN Convention Against Torture and the Council of Europe’s anti-trafficking convention. Farage argues that doing so is necessary because the UK is facing a “state of emergency”.

The next step is even more controversial. For months Reform has been working on the Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill, which will make it illegal for people to come to the UK illegally. They would be detained on “surplus” RAF bases, then deported.

Farage says that on coming to the UK in small boats people would face immediate arrest. As part of the plan, which is called Operation Restoring Justice, Farage’s government would build detention centres capable of detaining 24,000 people.

TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER RICHARD POHLE

His vision is for prefabricated buildings with canteens and medical facilities on site. People would not be allowed to leave and Farage believes they can be deported within 30 days.

“They have no right to claim asylum,” he says. “They would be arrested and detained. They’d be put into disused military bases. We would potentially need some prefab buildings put up, something like that.

“Don’t tell me we can’t put together facilities for people to stay because we can. They would be treated with a degree of civility, of course. They’re going to be fed and watered and looked after, given medical care if they need it.”

He contrasts the plans with how he views the present situation. “You have these young men from different cultures, Afghans being perhaps the worst example, who are literally free at licence to go out, work in the criminal economy and commit crimes,” he says. “And I think it’s the area of sexual crime that perhaps is the one that has upset the public the most. They should not be free to walk our streets, period.”

The legislative package would include powers giving the government the right to detain people without any recourse to bail. The home secretary would be put under a statutory duty to remove people from the UK.

Where would they be sent? This is perhaps the most contentious part of Farage’s plan. He wants to sign deals with countries such as Afghanistan and Eritrea, despotic regimes with dire human rights records.

Afghanistan under the Taliban has a dire human rights record

SAMIULLAH POPAL/EPA

“We have enormous muscle on these things,” he says. “We can be nice to people, we can be nice to other countries, or we can be very tough to other countries.

“But all the diplomatic levers that we have, if we have to use them, on visas, on trade, sanctions … I mean, Trump has proved this point quite comprehensively.”

But what of the risk of people being killed or tortured if they are sent back to their country of origin? The Taliban are unlikely to look kindly on people who have fled.

“I’m really sorry, but we can’t be responsible for everything that happens in the whole of the world,” he says. “Who is our priority? Is it the safety and security of this country and its people? Or are we worrying about everybody else and foreign courts? That’s what it comes down to. Whose side are you on?”

So how would he respond as prime minister if people were tortured because of his deportation policy?

“There is no particular reason why they should be tortured because they have gone back,” he says. “But, look, I can’t be responsible for despotic regimes all over the world. But I can be responsible for the safety of women and girls on our streets.”

Farage will also send people to third countries. He is open to reviving the Conservative Party’s Rwanda plan, which he says would work under his overhaul of the asylum system. Albania is another potential destination.

Suella Braverman, the home secretary at the time, inspects accommodation for deported asylum seekers in Kigali, Rwanda

CYRIL NDEGEYA/ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES

There is another plank to the plan — a “fallback” of sending people to British overseas territories. “It’s there as a backstop. The message that if you come, you won’t stay is so important.

“Now, ideally, they’re going back to Iraq, they’re going back to Iran, they’re going back to wherever, Eritrea, Afghanistan. But if we have some problematic ones, then that’s the backstop. You will not be staying in this country if you pay a trafficker to cross the English Channel.”

Farage suggests asylum seekers could be sent to Ascension Island, 4,000 miles away in the South Atlantic. The island is notoriously difficult to get to and landing is said to be a treacherous experience. “It’s a long, long way and it would be expensive,” Farage says. “It can manage military craft. But again, it’s symbolism.”

But even if it proves to be viable, what if the overseas territories don’t want to accommodate thousands of asylum seekers? “Of course they won’t want them,” Farage says. “But that’s just part of the deal.”

Farage’s plan envisages that five deportation flights would be chartered every day. An RAF Voyager would be on reserve if needed.

An RAF Voyager at Brize Norton in Oxfordshire

ANDREW MATTHEWS/PA

The government, he says, would take a “carrot and stick” approach with a six-month voluntary returns scheme. People would be able to “deport themselves” using an app and be given £2,500 to leave the country. Their flights would be paid for.

“The carrot is very, very clear,” he says. “If you’re here illegally, we’re coming for you. We will remove you. But what we can do is help you go back to where you came from, put two and a half thousand quid in your pocket, not charge you an airfare to go. And I think quite a few might take that option.”

Farage claims the policy will cost £10 billion over five years. But can those figures be right? Is there not a risk that building additional migration detention centres alone could swallow up the bulk of that money, never mind deals with other countries, the cost of charter flights and building accommodation in overseas territories?

Reform insists the plan is fully costed. It says the policy will save £7 billion over five years compared with the existing cost of the asylum system.

He suggests the plan will stop the boats in as little as two weeks, highlighting the impact of a hardline policy introduced by the former prime minister Tony Abbott in Australia. “He towed them back to Indonesia,” Farage says. “If people coming know they’ll be detained, if they know they’ll be deported, they’ll stop coming very very quickly.”

In the US, President Trump declared a national emergency and deployed troops en masse to the Mexican border. Thousands of people had their settled status rescinded and police detained others. The policy led to the number of illegal crossings from Mexico collapsing.

Troops at the Mexican border during President Trump’s second week of office in February

ZUMA/THE MEGA AGENCY

“A lot of this [the costings] is difficult to tell because you don’t know what the effect of doing it in the first place is going to be,” he admits. “The Tories thought Rwanda would be dramatic [as a deterrent], and it would have been if they’d been allowed to do it under ECHR and British judges. So estimating some of this is difficult, isn’t it?

“We’ve got guesstimates of what it would cost for each individual to be rounded up and deported, which is why the voluntary option would be a lot cheaper for everybody.”

Farage adds: “The illegal migrant crisis is costing £7 billion a year. But the truth is that doesn’t even get close to what it’s really costing us, what it’s costing the NHS.

“The fact they have to provide free healthcare. The fact that NHS dentists have to be on hand. The police time for those that commit wrongs.

“You know, we are talking here about a massive, massive financial problem, far bigger than we’re saying in this document, far bigger than we’re saying. And our hope would be that it would actually suit the NHS to co-operate with us on this.”

Reform will also mount a crackdown on the black economy. It says it will require the NHS and other public bodies to provide information so illegal immigrants can be tracked down and detained.

The timing of Farage’s announcement is deliberate. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, is expected to set out her plans to leave the European Convention on Human Rights at the Conservative Party conference. Farage is dismissive.

Kemi Badenoch in Essex this month

STEFAN ROUSSEAU/PA

“Who? No one knows who she is,” he says. “No one. I mean, where’s the credibility? Do you think they’ll go as far as these? It’ll be the usual Tory fudge. They’re a broad church with no religion.”

The government’s asylum policy, in the meantime, is in turmoil. Last week a judge granted an injunction that will lead to the closure of a hotel in Epping housing asylum seekers that has been the site of repeated protests.

Dozens of protests are expected outside asylum hotels across the country this weekend as other local authorities consider applying for similar injunctions.

Farage warns there will be social unrest unless they close. “I know the argument is that they’ll move them into HMOs or they’ll do whatever they’ll do. But I do think the migrant hotels are a symbol of all that is wrong, all that is unfair. And, increasingly, it’s a big security risk.”

Farage samples the wares in a craft ale sale in his constituency

TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER RICHARD POHLE

With that Farage is off for a visit to a craft ale and beer festival nearby, where he lives up to his cigarette-smoking, beer-drinking caricature.

“There are some mornings I wake up and think I must be completely, completely off my head. But that never lasts more than an hour or two because the buzz and the excitement of building something, of moving forwards. So no, I mean, basically, basically I’m still pretty energised.”

[Vesper 30,235]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-paradox-of-tolerance-why-free-speech-is-essential-to-combat-extremism-in-britain

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/689b54edeb300a86d83d0c46/CE01_Peter_DLima_Claire_McGuiggan.pdf