Politics & Stuff

[Vesper 30,233]

Vesper's final predictions

 

As you may know, for ages I was super concerned about a 269-269 tie and NE-2.

This was my map showing by far the most likely scenario it would happen:

 

Trump wins NV, AZ, GA, NC, ME-2, and NE-2.
Harris wins WI, MI, PA, NH

I was very worried that the NE unicameral (only one in the nation) state legislature would wait until ME's legislature could not undo their split EV scheme (due to the time limit in their ME constitutions for law changes to take effect), and then NE WOULD undo theirs.

That almost happened, BUT just like the last time (several years ago) ONE Republican refused to go along with the rest and so it was stopped.

Now, I am relieved in terms of NE-2, as Harris is up there 8 to 12 points in the latest legit polls.

That said, as it stands, my map above (but with NE-2 flipped to Harris, so she wins 270-268) may damn well be exactly how it plays out.

This is why:

(and I NEVER count the dozens of RW polls, so there is no false elevation of Trump from them in any of my calculus)

We are a in big trouble in NV (the NV guru, John Ralston, had said we are in deep shit due to the early returns and the fact the Rethugs have gained a lot in net registrations, plus the early voting doesn't look good, plus a huge union there just endorsed the Rethug governor today, for the 2026 election). Now he says Harris wins it but BARELY, by 0.3 per cent, but even there he said it is absolutely possible Trump wins there.

ME-2 is basically a lock for Trump.

It looks bad for us in AZ.

A bit less bad in GA and NC, but they still look (atm) like they both go Trump.

Harris has NH locked up.

I think she wins (atm) WI, and MI.

PA is a pure toss-up, but (atm) I think Harris pulls it out. HUGE state to watch, IF she loses PA we are in serious shit more than likely.

So, that leaves us with (my final prediction):

 

270 Harris, 268 Trump.

 

But we are not out of the woods at all yet.

All it takes for Trump to win, is ONE faithless elector to flip from Harris to Trump.

IF an elector flip from Harris to Trump, we are back at 269-269 tie and Trump will win in the House.

WE cannot pull the Rethug-controlled state delegation under 26 (26 are needed to elect a POTUS in the US House, each state gets 1 vote), especially as NC will likely go from a 7 7 tie to 10 R 4 D or even 11 R 3 D, under their new RW gerrymandered maps.
But even if NC stays tied, we still have no chance to pull them under 26 states, due to gerrymandering (for years) in WI, and FL.

AND, even IF one Harris elector flips to anyone other than Trump, Harris still loses, 269-268-1, with the House electing Trump. There are still 538 total electoral voters so she still needs 270 to win.

Harris would win IF a Harris faithless elector refuses to vote at all.

Then, the total EVs are 537, and 269 left for Harris and 268 left for Trump. Per the 12th Amendment 269 is a majority of the 537 EV total.

BUT, IF 2 Harris electors refuse to vote, Trump wins in the US House, as then the total EVs are 536 and Harris, at 268, does NOT have a majority (it would be a 268-268 tie).

Now, here are the states that the Rethugs will try and get one Harris EV to flip to Trump, or 2 Harris electors to simply refuse to vote:

It is simple to see them (given my map above)

It has to be a state that Harris won AND a state that either:

1. A state that Harris wins AND a state that automatically counts the vote from a faithless elector (those states are HI, OR, WI, DE, VA, MD, VT, CT, and MA, plus DC)

OR

2. A state that Harris wins AND it is a state with no laws on the books for any scenario (those states are IL, NJ, PA, and NH)

OR

3. (least likely) A state that Harris wins, the vote is counted, but there is a penalty for the faithless elector. The only state like that is NM.

Here is the map of states' faithless elector laws:

The Rethugs will likely try and covertly offer billions of dollars (and maybe some covert threats) plus a potential POTUS pardon (or a Rethug governor pardon if the Harris-won state has a Rethug governor, like NH or VA do, plus VT, but little chance for Rethug shenanigans there) to a Harris elector to flip to Trump, OR get 2 Harris electors to refuse to vote.

Another gambit they may well try is to get an entire state that Harris won to not certify its entire slate of electors, or flip it to Trump (flipping it would be harder).

They would need either:

1. A state that Harris wins, BUT has a Rethug Trifecta (Gov and both state chambers). The only 2 states that could happen in are NH and VA. Even tiny NH would work, as even though it only has 4 EVs, IF it refuses to certify, the that takes the total EVs down to 534, and Trump's 268 are a majority.

OR

2. A state that Harris wins, but even though it has a Dem governor, it has Rethug super majorities in both state chambers. The only state that could happen in is WI.

Finally, IF the Rethugs retain the US HOUSE (a fairly decent shot they have at doing so in theory), they may block certification of a key state that went for Harris.

 

US Senate predictions:

Democrats lose control.

They lose WV and MT for sure, and atm I think OH (horrid loss as Sherrod Brown (D) is one of the best Senators).

The Dems also could lose WI, MI, NV, and PA, but I think they hold on to them.

Rethugs retain all their US Senate seats, including the only 3 in any remote danger (TX and FL, and especially NE, where an independent, Dan Osborn is so close to Deb Fischer, the R incumbent).

IF NE flips to indy, Osborn will NOT caucus with either party, but the Rethugs will regain the US Senate 51 R - 48 D and 1 indy anyway (if my Dem losses in WV, MT, and OH are correct, with WV and MT basically locked in as of now as D to R flips).

Even if Brown wins in OH, and Osborn wins in NE the Rethugs would still have control 50 to 49 with the indy Osborn not caucusing with either party.

 

US House predictions:

Democrats regain control

[Vesper 30,233]

Best possible REALISTIC outcomes for Harris and Trump (closing momentum for Harris v hidden voters for Trump)

HARRIS maximal EV outcome

 

TRUMP maximal EV outcome

[NikkiCFC 8,341]

15 hours ago, Fernando said:

One thing about people, well not everyone as that is generalizing. But I would say a good amount of people tend to be rebellious. 

You tell them not to do this and they would do it. 

The New York Times with that article is going to pushed a lot of rebellious people to do the opposite. 

 

As a Trump voter and pro Israeli aren't you concerned that he may not continue supporting them the same way as this administration?

[Fernando 6,585]

2 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

As a Trump voter and pro Israeli aren't you concerned that he may not continue supporting them the same way as this administration?

I think it will be more of a concerned with Harris then Trump to be honest. 

[Fernando 6,585]

28 minutes ago, Vesper said:

Vesper's final predictions

 

As you may know, for ages I was super concerned about a 269-269 tie and NE-2.

This was my map showing by far the most likely scenario it would happen:

 

Trump wins NV, AZ, GA, NC, ME-2, and NE-2.
Harris wins WI, MI, PA, NH

I was very worried that the NE unicameral (only one in the nation) state legislature would wait until ME's legislature could not undo their split EV scheme (due to the time limit in their ME constitutions for law changes to take effect), and then NE WOULD undo theirs.

That almost happened, BUT just like the last time (several years ago) ONE Republican refused to go along with the rest and so it was stopped.

Now, I am relieved in terms of NE-2, as Harris is up there 8 to 12 points in the latest legit polls.

That said, as it stands, my map above (but with NE-2 flipped to Harris, so she wins 270-268) may damn well be exactly how it plays out.

This is why:

(and I NEVER count the dozens of RW polls, so there is no false elevation of Trump from them in any of my calculus)

We are a in big trouble in NV (the NV guru, John Ralston, had said we are in deep shit due to the early returns and the fact the Rethugs have gained a lot in net registrations, plus the early voting doesn't look good, plus a huge union there just endorsed the Rethug governor today, for the 2026 election). Now he says Harris wins it but BARELY, by 0.3 per cent, but even there he said it is absolutely possible Trump wins there.

ME-2 is basically a lock for Trump.

It looks bad for us in AZ.

A bit less bad in GA and NC, but they still look (atm) like they both go Trump.

Harris has NH locked up.

I think she wins (atm) WI, and MI.

PA is a pure toss-up, but (atm) I think Harris pulls it out. HUGE state to watch, IF she loses PA we are in serious shit more than likely.

So, that leaves us with (my final prediction):

 

270 Harris, 268 Trump.

 

But we are not out of the woods at all yet.

All it takes for Trump to win, is ONE faithless elector to flip from Harris to Trump.

IF an elector flip from Harris to Trump, we are back at 269-269 tie and Trump will win in the House.

WE cannot pull the Rethug-controlled state delegation under 26 (26 are needed to elect a POTUS in the US House, each state gets 1 vote), especially as NC will likely go from a 7 7 tie to 10 R 4 D or even 11 R 3 D, under their new RW gerrymandered maps.
But even if NC stays tied, we still have no chance to pull them under 26 states, due to gerrymandering (for years) in WI, and FL.

AND, even IF one Harris elector flips to anyone other than Trump, Harris still loses, 269-268-1, with the House electing Trump. There are still 538 total electoral voters so she still needs 270 to win.

Harris would win IF a Harris faithless elector refuses to vote at all.

Then, the total EVs are 537, and 269 left for Harris and 268 left for Trump. Per the 12th Amendment 269 is a majority of the 537 EV total.

BUT, IF 2 Harris electors refuse to vote, Trump wins in the US House, as then the total EVs are 536 and Harris, at 268, does NOT have a majority (it would be a 268-268 tie).

Now, here are the states that the Rethugs will try and get one Harris EV to flip to Trump, or 2 Harris electors to simply refuse to vote:

It is simple to see them (given my map above)

It has to be a state that Harris won AND a state that either:

1. A state that Harris wins AND a state that automatically counts the vote from a faithless elector (those states are HI, OR, WI, DE, VA, MD, VT, CT, and MA, plus DC)

OR

2. A state that Harris wins AND it is a state with no laws on the books for any scenario (those states are IL, NJ, PA, and NH)

OR

3. (least likely) A state that Harris wins, the vote is counted, but there is a penalty for the faithless elector. The only state like that is NM.

Here is the map of states' faithless elector laws:

The Rethugs will likely try and covertly offer billions of dollars (and maybe some covert threats) plus a potential POTUS pardon (or a Rethug governor pardon if the Harris-won state has a Rethug governor, like NH or VA do, plus VT, but little chance for Rethug shenanigans there) to a Harris elector to flip to Trump, OR get 2 Harris electors to refuse to vote.

Another gambit they may well try is to get an entire state that Harris won to not certify its entire slate of electors, or flip it to Trump (flipping it would be harder).

They would need either:

1. A state that Harris wins, BUT has a Rethug Trifecta (Gov and both state chambers). The only 2 states that could happen in are NH and VA. Even tiny NH would work, as even though it only has 4 EVs, IF it refuses to certify, the that takes the total EVs down to 534, and Trump's 268 are a majority.

OR

2. A state that Harris wins, but even though it has a Dem governor, it has Rethug super majorities in both state chambers. The only state that could happen in is WI.

Finally, IF the Rethugs retain the US HOUSE (a fairly decent shot they have at doing so in theory), they may block certification of a key state that went for Harris.

 

US Senate predictions:

Democrats lose control.

They lose WV and MT for sure, and atm I think OH (horrid loss as Sherrod Brown (D) is one of the best Senators).

The Dems also could lose WI, MI, NV, and PA, but I think they hold on to them.

Rethugs retain all their US Senate seats, including the only 3 in any remote danger (TX and FL, and especially NE, where an independent, Dan Osborn is so close to Deb Fischer, the R incumbent).

IF NE flips to indy, Osborn will NOT caucus with either party, but the Rethugs will regain the US Senate 51 R - 48 D and 1 indy anyway (if my Dem losses in WV, MT, and OH are correct, with WV and MT basically locked in as of now as D to R flips).

Even if Brown wins in OH, and Osborn wins in NE the Rethugs would still have control 50 to 49 with the indy Osborn not caucusing with either party.

 

US House predictions:

Democrats regain control

Awesome work. With this tight race we might need to wait till Wednesday morning to know the results. 

[Vesper 30,233]

Just now, Fernando said:

Awesome work. With this tight race we might need to wait till Wednesday morning to know the results. 

IF my 270-268 Harris EC win map actually occurs, we will not know for sure who the next POTUS is until January 20, 2025, when Harris is sworn it (or Trump actually overturns the EC outcome and is sworn in).

IF my map happens, we are likey in for the shitshows of shitshows before there is resolution.

It also could happen if I am only off by one or two states or so, with Harris winning, but not by much, just more than my 2 EV margin).

So many things could kick off a violent kinetic civil war, the extent of which could become nationwide, especially at guerilla warfare level.

I laid out a lot of them, but there are some more remote things that are even more crazy (multivariate assassinations (potentiaslly by either side but FAR more like to come from the RW if a narrow Trump loss goes down, a corrupt SCOTUS literally handing power to Trump, a military coup d'état that deposes Biden, blocks Harris, and installs Trump (which also could happen the other way later on down the road if Trumps wins and then does INSANE things that are clearly unconstitutional and illegal, but backed up the corrupt SCOTUS), etc etc etc.

The world is on tenterhooks atm.

[Vesper 30,233]

44 minutes ago, Fernando said:

With this tight race we might need to wait till Wednesday morning to know the results. 

Also MANY states will perhaps not have their final numbers (especially if they are close) until the weekend or so (maybe later).

Beware of the Red Mirage, which happened in 2020 (for but once instance).

Same day voting is often dominated by Republicans, and in multiple swing states THOSE vote will be announced first.

Then, as the mail-in ballots are counted, a state can easily flip for Trump to Harris, like states in 2020 started out with Trump leads, but then ened up, when all the votes were counted, went for Biden (GA, MI, WI, PA, AZ, NV did thsi to varying degrees).

No matter what happens, Trump will immediately claim he has won, and won decisively.

In 2020 Trump wanted the vote counting to STOP, completely, when he was ahead in the swing states.

This time, if that happens, he will be so so much more strident in his calls to stop the count (if he is ahead) and will immediately ratchet it up to calls for potentiasl armed violence as a legitimate tool to 'stop the steal'. Of course the only 'steal' attempts of ANY true import, will be made by the RW.

IF Harris is clearly defeated (by regular voting means), she will NOT try to engage in illegal actions, I would bet any amount of dosh on that.

IF the Republicans actually flip Electoral College voters (via illegal means, be it bribery or threat-based coercion, etc etc), or they wipe out Harris-won state's entire slates of Electors, or block certification in Congress to the extent it goes to the rigged, gerrymandered US House, who will elect Trump, then the ball is in old Biden's court, as until noon EST on January 20th, 2025 he is still POTUS, and thus still the Commander in Chief of the US military.

It could get fucking crazy, I am sorely afraid.

Edited November 5, 2024 by Vesper

[Vesper 30,233]

The yanks have erected a nightmare system of governance (and elections), as the long-wave (some 200 plus years in the making) constitutional flaws are now (and some have already come) coming to the fore and quite possibly becoming prime instruments in the the dissolution of the Union of the States.

The US system of governance is a supertanker (and one the size of a small nation-state).

It takes ages (easily decades and decades) and olympian efforts, at myriad levels of interlocked mechanisms, to turn it in one clear direction, but if that direction is steering into an ill wind of malice and chaos, discord and authoritarian superstructures, it is almost impossible to right the ship of state, given the system (a system that brought about stabilty for centuries, barring the US Civil War) of checks and balances now being turned on its head and then used to increase the tyranny of malign actors and their penumbras of dark power and freedoms destruction (and at a multicipity of levels of those cherished freedoms, from the everyday mundane ones, all the way up to the all-encompassing systemic core ones).

Those seemingly benevolent checks and balances could well become the ultimate chains and prison walls, the manna for totalitarianism, not just across their fruited plain, but indeed projected out onto a global stage.

Edited November 5, 2024 by Vesper

[Vesper 30,233]

Joe Rogan Endorses Trump, and Trump Calls Him ‘the Biggest There Is’

Mr. Rogan has hosted Donald J. Trump, JD Vance and Elon Musk for lengthy and friendly interviews in recent weeks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/trump-joe-rogan-endorsement.html

The podcast host Joe Rogan endorsed former President Donald J. Trump in a post on social media on Monday.Credit...Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC, via Getty Images

 

Joe Rogan, the enormously popular podcast host who brought Donald J. Trump onto his show for a three-hour episode last month, endorsed the former president in a post on social media on Monday.

Mr. Rogan, who also spoke at length with Senator JD Vance of Ohio, Mr. Trump’s running mate, and Elon Musk, a prominent Trump surrogate, on recent episodes of his podcast, said Mr. Musk made “what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you’ll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way.”

“For the record, yes, that’s an endorsement of Trump,” Mr. Rogan, host of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” wrote on Monday evening.

Minutes later, Mr. Trump promoted Mr. Rogan’s endorsement from the campaign trail in Pittsburgh, falsely suggesting that Mr. Rogan had never before endorsed a political candidate. Mr. Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2020.

“He’s the biggest there is,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Rogan, adding, “Somebody said the biggest beyond anybody in a long time.”

Mr. Rogan’s conversations with Mr. Trump, Mr. Vance and Mr. Musk were overwhelmingly friendly, often full of praise for the former president. In his appearance, Mr. Trump courted Mr. Rogan’s audience, largely young and male, with talk of eliminating the federal income tax, mixed martial arts and speculation about life on Mars.

Early in his interview with Mr. Vance, Mr. Rogan said American presidents “age radically” and “dramatically” once they take office.

“Everyone but Trump,” Mr. Rogan quickly added. In his interview with Mr. Trump, he had noted that the former president’s meandering speaking style — which Mr. Trump calls “the weave” — appeared to be intensifying. “Your weave is getting wide,” Mr. Rogan had said. “You’re getting wide with this weave.”

This year, Mr. Rogan had earned Mr. Trump’s ire by supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had been running for president as an independent and who at one point was poised to draw support from Mr. Trump. Mr. Rogan had said that Mr. Kennedy was “the only one that makes sense to me.” Facing criticism from Mr. Trump and his supporters, Mr. Rogan clarified that he was not endorsing Mr. Kennedy, who ultimately dropped out and backed Mr. Trump.

“It will be interesting to see how loudly Joe Rogan gets BOOED the next time he enters the UFC Ring,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, in August.

[Vesper 30,233]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/election-2024-voters.html

I spent my weekend driving around southeastern Pennsylvania in a rented minivan. And if the interviews I did there are any indication, there is one thing everyone in this divided nation can agree on: The uncertainty is getting to us.

In Lancaster County, Persida Himmele, a 58-year-old college professor, told me something that might resonate with a lot of you. It feels, she said, as if life is on hold through the election.

She hasn’t graded papers. She plans to teach her classes online rather than in person this week. She is urging everybody she knows — particularly friends and family who are Puerto Rican, as she is — not to vote for former President Donald Trump, and she has been knocking on doors in Latino neighborhoods, hoping to have those conversations with strangers, too.

She can hardly imagine what the country might look like after tomorrow, regardless of whether her preferred candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, wins.

“I think that even if she wins, we are going to see violence,” Himmele told me on Saturday at a canvassing launch in downtown Lancaster. She worries that a Trump victory could drive up racism and threaten the future of democracy.

The next morning, I attended Trump’s rally in Lititz, Pa., where Melissa Thomas, a 49-year-old Republican, made an even more ominous prediction. She told me that she thought Harris could not win without election fraud — and that it might be a precursor to a civil war.

“I will not take it gracefully, and I will not take it laying down,” Thomas, a resident of Lemoyne, Pa., said.

“I can see the capitol of Pennsylvania and Harrisburg from my front porch,” Thomas said, “and I will be there, and I will be letting my people know, my representatives, my congressmen, know that this isn’t going to fly.”

With one day to go before the election, the polls are practically tied. Voters on both sides of the aisle feel a deep sense of foreboding, as my colleagues Lisa Lerer and Katie Glueck wrote today. And everyone seems to feel as if they’re staring into an abyss.

Voters burned by years of polling misses don’t know what to make of narrowly divided polls, or whether to trust them at all. But I spoke to Harris supporters who deeply believe she will win, and Trump supporters who are just as sure about their candidate’s victory — especially because Trump has primed them to believe that the only way Harris can win is if she cheats, even though that is not true.

The real uncertainty I heard from voters was less about the result, and more about what comes next.

“We’re going to win, but I’m concerned about what’s going to happen afterwards, because there’s so much hatred for Trump,” Shirley Rust, a real estate agent from Lancaster County, told me before Trump’s rally in Lititz.

“I worry about what happens when we’re still counting the vote, and the other side doesn’t like what they’re seeing,” Leann Hart, 39, a data analyst and the vice chair of the Bensalem Democratic Organization, told me in Norristown, Pa., while she waited for the former first lady Michelle Obama to take the stage at a rally for Ms. Harris.

None of us know who will win the election. And we don’t know whether worrisome events in recent days, like arson attacks on ballot boxes, are aberrations or an indication of more instability to come.

But what we do know is this: People are voting, and the system so far has functioned largely as it should.

Tomorrow night, the polls will close. The nation’s election workers will do their jobs. Results will be reported. There could be a flurry of lawsuits, and it could be a while before we get any clarity, especially if it is close.

Over the past six months, I’ve tried to use this newsletter to help you understand an election that became even more of a roller coaster than any of us expected, to bring you to the states and the voters who will shape its final outcome and to help make sense of the moments where everything changed.

Now, voters are on the precipice of changing the country again, either electing the country’s first female president or returning to the White House a former president whom voters rejected after one term.

I’ll be back in your inboxes early tomorrow, with a primer on to how to make sense of the day. And in the days to come, I’ll be guiding you through the results and what it all means for the country.

Thank you for reading — and see you tomorrow.

 

the moment

Two photographs that stuck with our photographers

Over the past few months, we’ve spent some time with the images made by New York Times photographers on the campaign trail. Today, I asked Erin Schaff, the photographer assigned to cover Vice President Kamala Harris, and Doug Mills, the photographer assigned to cover former President Donald Trump, to each share one image that stuck with them from their months of coverage.

 

This was the vice president’s first campaign event with former President Barack Obama. In this photo, they are taking a quiet moment to speak before heading onstage. I am most interested in seeing who the candidate is when she or he is not performing for the public.

— Erin Schaff

So this picture here is of Donald Trump just about to exit what he calls “Trump Force One,” his private plane that he flies to campaign stops. He was just about to leave the aircraft and walk out to thousands of people waiting on the tarmac.

I was standing in the doorway, and all of a sudden the former president walked right through the aisle. I kind of lifted up the camera to make sure it was going to be OK. And he looked at me. He goes, “We’re good, Doug, go ahead.”

There is no question that Donald Trump knows when every camera’s around him. And that is one thing that is unique to him. He’s very much about the imagery and the entertainment part of it.

— Doug Mills

[cosmicway 1,333]

I don't  expect Harris to win.
Trump was ahead before that first debate that went badly for Biden.
Then the margin became wider.
Then Harris took over and managed to regain some ground.
Past experiece with similar situations as well as the current polls indicate Trump.
Of course we will know in 48 hours but to change my prediction something really dramatic must happen.

[Vesper 30,233]

and so it begins

[Vesper 30,233]

Arizona Official Releases Voter List Sought by Activists After Court Order

The secretary of state had objected to turning over names of people without a record of proof of citizenship to lawyers for a right-wing group, fearing the potential consequences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/politics/arizona-voting-citizenship-voter-rolls.html

 

“I don’t want blood on my hands,” Adrian Fontes, the Arizona secretary of state, had said in a court hearing last month.Credit...Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Adrian Fontes, Arizona’s secretary of state, said Monday that his office had handed over the names of hundreds of thousands of voters to lawyers for a right-wing activist group as ordered by a court, adding that he regretted having to do so and worried about the potential consequences.

“I tried to stop this,” he told reporters in a news conference in Phoenix. “I have fought as hard as I could to keep your names and your personal identifying information away from the folks who I don’t trust — and I have good reason not to trust them with that specific information.”

The legal fight originated with an obscure technical issue in a state database that left Arizona without a record of proof of citizenship for 218,000 voters. Arizona requires such proof to vote in state elections.

A judge had ruled that the voters on the list would be allowed to vote the full ballot in Tuesday’s election despite the error. But last month lawyers for America First Legal, an organization founded by the former Trump adviser Stephen Miller, sued for the release of the names of the affected voters on behalf of a right-wing group in Phoenix, the Strong Communities Foundation of Arizona.

Mr. Fontes, a Democrat, argued that doing so would expose the people on the list to harassment and potentially violence at a time when former President Donald J. Trump and others are stoking fears of noncitizen voting in Tuesday’s elections. During the 2022 midterms in Arizona, armed right-wing activists, inspired by conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, took it upon themselves to monitor voting.

“I don’t want blood on my hands,” Mr. Fontes said in a court hearing last month.

The court order imposes strict conditions on the release of the voter list, which will be made available only to certain county election officials and a handful of state legislators, who are prohibited from distributing it further. Opponents of the release noted that those groups include several figures who have been prominent voices in the state’s election-denial movement since the 2020 election.

In Thursday’s ruling, a Superior Court judge found that Mr. Fontes had not demonstrated that the Strong Communities Foundation, which is led by Merissa Hamilton, a local activist who is also a former Republican mayoral candidate, specifically posed a threat to the people on the list.

In an email, Ms. Hamilton confirmed that Mr. Fontes’s office had given the data to her lawyers, who “have provided it to the election officials who agreed to the court’s stipulations so they can do their jobs and ensure the voters that their vote matters and will count.”

[cosmicway 1,333]

What are Hamash-Hezbollah expecting from Trump ?
Lenience ?
Not likely but what can he do more ?
Bomb them twice ?
What they are expecting from him is to create a more tense environment so as to enable them to spread their brand of terrorism further.
They made their calculations before the 7/10 last year.
Tomorrow they will say "we won".

Edited November 5, 2024 by cosmicway

[Vesper 30,233]

Elon Musk liked this enough to repost it

🤮

[Fulham Broadway 17,335]

15 minutes ago, Vesper said:

Elon Musk liked this enough to repost it

🤮

His daughter was more to the point...

calling the illegal South African migrant ''a racist bigoted motherfucker and a treasonous Nazi'' 

[IMissEden 21]

Personally I think taking a hard-line against abortion, is Neolithic, and from a policy perspective more ignorant than anything. 
 

Look to Nature, not Theory. Look to Facts, not Theory. Look at the animal kingdom. It’s obviously normal to prioritise the wellbeing of the parent. Many animals kill their fully birthed babies, as they know they won’t be able to feed them. Or that if they did, they’d suddenly be jeopardised themselves. 
 

Autonomy over one’s body is really beyond important, that it is awkward to even acknowledge that there exists opposition to the clear truth that nobody makes decisions over others bodies. We did not either as monkeys or cave dwellers do that. Lead, yes. Control, no. 
 

It being baked in so core to the red side is surely no question one way or another The cornerstone of undoing. You can’t so deeply violate and disturb, scare and upset, burden so many people. Equally this does not mean let’s all be whores. Balance. Of course in politics, you lead with loud bold intentions, to win votes, then follow-up far more reserved. I wonder what the case would be with a Trump win there. 
 

I imagine we all suffer from echo chambers, to bias news. I think if we online had our common sense as intact as we had say 10 years ago, we’d know no question that this sole policy = Blue will win. Too many women, mothers, dads, sisters, exist - and just guys with empathy. It’s easy to thought-experiment scenarios wherein true intentions between a guy and girl result in say a pregnant 17 18 year old who doesn’t want a baby, and no baby really will want the mother who didn’t want them vs one who does. 
 

So, literally now, and as Red tone as it is, Blue should slogan this - What’s The Harm? - literally - question - in stopping the growth not life of a bundle of cells and blobs. Obviously there should be pressure or education to abort early and not late — strong parents needed in times of high emotions in developing minds.
 

All said it’s still not Trump vs Harris or simply these vs those policies. There remains all that in the balance, but the real What You’re Voting For politically, is accepting the shadow state - and turning a blind eye to their parties policies toward comforting idealistic fallacies —- which feel so good that they remain in fashion despite chaos caused. Or voting for reversion essentially to simpler and more transparent politics - no shadow state. That’s what compelled Musk, someone who seeks as much info as possible, to want involvement —- definitely without question believing Blue for now to be a masterfully designed deception of shepherds leading lambs to slaughter. I wonder how many Migrant Doctors have set off bombs in Stockholm this year. 
 

Scandinavia, Germany, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Austria, France, UK, USA, all shifting more conservative due to migrant issues. I struggle to reconcile that hardline in USA, Brazil however given the disregard for environment coming from those guys. 
 

All in all, people are sacrificing themselves to try put the breaks on an ever faster arrival of dissolution of most we’ve known in our time. 

[Vesper 30,233]

Poll closing times

All times are US Eastern Standard Time (5 hours behind London, 6 hours behind Stockholm and the rest of CET)

7 p.m. ET — 60 electoral votes at stake

Georgia
Indiana*
Kentucky*
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia

*Indiana and Kentucky are in split time zones

7:30 p.m. ET — 37 electoral votes

North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia

8 p.m. ET — 171 electoral votes

Alabama
Connecticut
D.C.
Delaware
Florida*
Illinois
Maine (ME-2)
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee

*Florida has split time zones

8:30 p.m. ET — 6 electoral votes

Arkansas

9 p.m. ET — 163 electoral votes

Arizona
Wisconsin
Michigan*
Colorado
Iowa
Kansas*
Louisiana
Minnesota
Nebraska (NE-2)
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota*
South Dakota*
Texas*
Wyoming

*Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas are in split time zones

10 p.m. ET — 16 electoral votes

Nevada
Montana
Utah

11 p.m. ET — 78 electoral votes

California
Idaho*
Oregon*
Washington

*Idaho and Oregon are in split time zones

12 a.m. ET — 4 electoral votes

Hawaii

1 a.m. ET — 3 electoral votes

Alaska*

*Alaska has split time zones

[Vesper 30,233]

17 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

His daughter was more to the point...

calling the illegal South African migrant ''a racist bigoted motherfucker and a treasonous Nazi'' 

Musk is a HUGE national security threat (and a global threat, both go far beyond just X)

He has open backdoor channels to fucking Putin (and dog knows who else), whilst having billions of dollars of US government contracts and also his controlling huge swathes of the US space, security, and military programmes.

insanity he is not under multiple investigations (that we know of)

my risk analysis team at my job is just gobsmacked

Edited November 5, 2024 by Vesper

[KEVINAA 129]

KMLA HRS is supposed to and going to win and then they will take forever to announce the winner to build up tension and chaos so the public start a civil war in America. So the government can bring in curfews and martial law and lockdowns to bring in the new 2025 global Blockchain currency to replace the US DOLLAR.

 

I do not support any form of governance. I believe in people working together without government involvement in our lives.

 

Govern-Ment in Latin means to govern is to control the mind [Control Mind = Mind Control]

Edited November 5, 2024 by KEVINAA