Pedro Neto to Chelsea: The Athletic 500 transfer ratings
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5691509/2024/08/11/pedro-neto-Chelsea-the-athletic-500-transfer-rating/
Chelsea have added Portuguese forward Pedro Neto to their squad for a fee of €60million (£51.4m; $65.5m) plus €3m in potential bonuses on a seven-year deal. Neto, 24, joins from Wolves where he has played since 2019.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100 to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here (not all transfers will be rated as there may be a lack of data to support an analysis).
Below is our rating for this move.
Tactical Fit — 62/100
A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically, using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical-fit model, explained by our tactical expert.
Neto is the latest winger to join a Chelsea squad already blessed with plenty of talent on the flanks. The Portuguese is an exciting player — fitness allowing — having racked up nine assists in 20 Premier League outings last season with multiple memorable performances. Neto has a wand of a left foot, but is dangerous with his right as well, allowing him to play a variety of roles on either wing.
His ball-carrying is the best feature of his game. As the graph below shows, Neto was a threat every time he got a chance to dribble.
The upside to letting Neto take his man on meant his 2.6 miscontrols per 90 – well over the league average of 2.1 for wingers – was worth it. His passing is not always the best, but this is because he is often ambitious with his attempts. When it gelled well with his dribbling, Neto caused plenty of damage. He cut in and out to get past three defenders to assist Hwang Hee-chan against Liverpool.
Alternatively, he can also drop infield to collect a pass on the turn and dribble away, like he does below to set up Matheus Cunha against Bournemouth.
In Enzo Maresca’s system, there will be room for Neto to do both and also whip in vicious left-footed crosses into the box. However, there are areas he will need to work on as well.
Maresca’s Leicester did not need too many goals from the wings, but Chelsea probably will, as their strikers are a mix of non-prolific and untested. Neto is not a great shooter, getting only 33 per cent of his 2.1 shots per 90 on target in the league last season. His 0.2 goals per shot on target ranked him in the bottom 15 per cent of wingers.
Additionally, Leicester’s Stephy Mavididi and Abdul Fatawu, while given licence to cut inside using their favoured foot, were also required to cross with accuracy. Neto attempted 4.5 open-play crosses per 90 in the league last season, but a mere 20 per cent of these were successful (compared to Fatawu’s 32 per cent).
Lastly, Maresca’s system warrants defensive work from his wingers. Neto, however, ranked lowest in tackles (0.4), second lowest in tackles won (0.2) and in the bottom 19 per cent for interceptions (0.3) per 90 in the Premier League last season. He also won just 18 per cent of his aerial duels, almost just half the league average of 34 per cent for his position.
This is not to say Neto will not fit in well at Chelsea as his direct style, two-footedness and creativity will add quality to the Blues’ attack. However, there are pitfalls and Chelsea’s recent history with wingers suggests the need for cautious optimism at best.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Gaming rating — 75/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability
Neto arrives at Chelsea as a squad player with the potential to become the club’s best attacker, according to Football Manager.
Neto’s current ability rating is 138, which matches up reasonably well against Chelsea’s current attacking options. Christopher Nkunku is Chelsea’s best forward on FM24, with a current ability rating of 162, followed by Raheem Sterling (161), Nicolas Jackson (147), Cole Palmer (140), Noni Madueke (139) and Mykhailo Mudryk (139).
While his current ability score suggests he might not yet be good enough to break into Maresca’s starting XI, Neto’s potential ability indicates why the west London club have made him their most expensive summer signing. According to Sports Interactive’s extensive scouting network, Neto has a potential ability score of 163. For context, if he delivers on his potential, he can become a marginally better player than team-mates Nkunku and Sterling.
Elias Burke
Season rating: 67/100
Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team
Neto is coming off a season that veered between magic and frustration. He was limited to 20 league appearances, but scored two goals and provided nine assists, making him Wolves’ top creator in 2023-24.
He had a number of standout performances where he took control of games thanks to a direct style of play that frequently causes problems for defenders, as shown in Wolves’ dramatic 4-3 defeat to Manchester United in February.
In that match, he was a constant threat, scoring what initially looked to be a 95th-minute equaliser before Kobbie Mainoo won it for the visitors.
Unfortunately, Neto’s season was once again disrupted by injuries, with 23 games missed due to two hamstring injuries. These setbacks reduced his playing time and his ability to establish himself as one of the best wide players in the Premier League. When fit Neto frequently shows his quality — Maresca will hope his new signing gets to do so on a much more regular basis at Stamford Bridge.
Financial value rating — 51/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 11/25
He has proved himself to be an excellent Premier League player when available but Neto’s injury issues make this an enormous sum for Chelsea to invest. The deal carries obvious risk in the circumstances. This is a move that chooses to look beyond that and to the quality he brings.
Squad cost — 9/25
There will be a plan for how Chelsea evolve under Maresca but Neto’s arrival adds depth to an area that did not appear a priority. That it has come at such a cost would also point towards players being moved out. A big chunk of the budget has also gone on the Portuguese winger.
Contract sensibility — 17/25
The length of contract was to be expected for a signing of his expense and he joins a host of Chelsea players with long-term deals. It’s unclear where Neto will fit in with the club’s pay structure but Chelsea have safeguarded themselves should he become a favourite.
Resale value — 14/25
Much will depend on Neto’s ability to play regular football in the coming years. Injury-free, he is an exciting talent whose value can rise. Should he be inhibited by setbacks, though, it becomes harder for that to hold. At 24, there are certainly plenty of years ahead for the winger.
Philip Buckingham
Risk or reward? — 50/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up in the future and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look
Neto is undoubtedly an exciting talent when fit, with the potential to become one of the Premier League’s best wingers, but he does not appear to fill any holes in Chelsea’s squad as currently constructed.
Neto’s versatility as a winger capable of playing on either side is an attractive trait for a club, but Chelsea are well-stocked on the wings. Palmer was excellent for Chelsea last season, primarily starting from the right wing, and there is depth in that position with Madueke should Palmer lose form, get injured, or move permanently into the No 10 position.
On the left, Mudryk provides cover for Sterling, who will be eager to refind his best form after being left out of England’s squad for the Euros. Should one of these players move on, Jackson, Nkunku, and young talents Carney Chukwuemeka and Omari Kellyman are further down the depth chart to provide emergency cover. On the surface, it’s difficult to see why Chelsea have paid more than £50million for a player whose qualities are well accounted for in the squad already.
He also has a torrid injury history. Since the 2020-21 season, Neto has missed a combined 102 matches for Wolves — that’s over 500 days spent on the sidelines. When he’s at his best and injury-free, Wolves fans will argue he is one of the most gifted wide players in the league, but his injury record has to be considered a significant concern.
Neto is an exciting talent with room to grow into a potential world-beater. However, his injury record and the number of players in his position already on the books at Chelsea make this signing a curious coin-flip of a decision.
Elias Burke
Overall rating: 305/500
(Top photo: Getty Images; design by Eamonn Dalton)
