Vesper

Jhon Durán destroys xG https://www.scoutednotebook.com/p/jhon-duran-destroys-xg-amad-does Sharpshooters Some players laugh in the face of Expected Goals. Full disclosure: I think the metric is extremely useful and refer to it often. But I also understand that technique and player quality can make a mockery of it in certain individual cases. You should not dismiss it. You should not live and die by it. Use it to spot anomalies and patterns and then investigate the ‘why?’. For example, if I spotted a player racking up incredible xG per 90 or posting gaping xG-Goal difference tallies, I would drop both names in the SCOUTED chat to see if the analysts have seen them before (the answer is usually yes). Then, the reasons why each outlier might exist would dictate whether I decide to track them further and watch more games. With that out of the way… Fucking hell, Jhon. As per Stathead, Jhon Durán has averages more Non-Penalty Goals per 90 than any player in Premier League history with at least 450 minutes played. Yes, even more than Erling Haaland. Of course, the sample size is very small - he has only started three PL games in his career - but this is your reminder that he is only 20 years old. I repeat: Fucking hell, Jhon. One of this reasons for this incredible scoring rate is a catalogue of xG-busting goals. Since the start of 2017/18 - the season that Stathead’s xG coverage begins - Durán ranks first for Non-Penalty Goals minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90; he is outperforming his NPxG tally by 0.6 per 90 minutes, more than doubling his expected output. In total, Durán has scored 8 NPG from 3.6 NPxG. There are two other metrics that highlight his anomalous goal-scoring: Non-Penalty xG per Shot (NPxG/Shot) and Average Shot Distance. Edinson Cavani ranks first for for NPxG/Shot among all Premier League players with at least 30 shots since the 2017/18 season. El Matador averaged 0.22 NPxG per effort, a testament to the world-class movement that defined his career. Haaland ranks joint-second with 0.20 NPxG/Shot, alongside Ramus Højlund and Taiwo Awoniyi. I can feel this is getting quite heavy so please do let me know if it’s too much for a Monday Night. Alternatively, if you want to discuss any of it further - reach out! So, although all four players take “good” shots, they don’t all get lots of them. Back to Durán. The Colombian averages 0.10 NPxG/Shot, ranking him 91st in this list. This is further highlighted by Haaland’s average shot distance of 12.4 yards (pretty much the penalty spot) compared to Durán’s 16.7 yards - similar to Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka. So, how is he top of the Premier League’s all-time Non-Penalty Goal-scoring charts? Well, to speak quickly on volume, he’s taking 4.4 shots every 90 minutes he spends on the pitch. He’s buying plenty of lottery tickets. And while his shot locations are improving, his shot placement can be fantastic. The secret to this? Ball-striking. Striking gold: Why every team needs a 'Project Nine' Read full story This attribute is often highlighted and discussed at SCOUTED. It features in Stephen’s excellent piece about the Project Nine. Conveniently, Durán was subject to transfer interest of that exact nature in the summer as Chelsea and West Ham battled for his signature. A metric used to help unearth these ball-striking phenoms is Non-Penalty Expected Goals On Target (NPxGOT) minus Non-Penalty Expected Goals. Opta coined the difference between their xG and xGOT values as Shooting Goals Added (SGA). You can read more about it here. xGOT is always used to calculate ‘Goals Prevented’ for goalkeepers. Essentially, this measures how likely a shot will go in based on where it is when it crosses the line, rather than the location it is taken from. Pre-shot vs. Post-shot. “Stats Perform’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model is calculated using a logistic regression model. It is built on hundreds of thousands of on-target shots from our historical Opta data and includes both the original xG of the shot and the goalmouth location of where the shot ended up. “The coordinates are taken at the point at which the shot was expected to cross the goal line to determine the goalmouth location of the shot and the interaction effect between the visible angle of the goal and the point that it crossed the line.” There are limitations - for example, perhaps shot placement matters less the closer to the goal you are? - but this can help identify those killer finishers. I was surprised to learn that Durán’s NPxG total (11.66) is almost-identical to his NPxG total (10.53) during his Premier League career. However, due to the small sample size, this is skewed by some extremely speculative shooting during 2022/23, even by his standard. Looking at the past two seasons, Durán is adding 0.10 SGA per 90. Of his eight Premier League goals, seven have a positive SGA. This is what excites me the most. This is what I will keep a closer eye on. I wish I could continue but I know you are all waiting for the stats. I am also in danger of spending a disproportionately amount of time on an extremely small set of data. TL;DR: Durán’s ability to kick the ball really nicely lots of times at the goal means he will continue score. He won’t maintain the historic rate he is currently operating at, but there is enough quality and quantity to suggest he can keep up with the best.

Conor Gallagher interview on feeling ‘wanted and appreciated’ at Atletico Madrid after Chelsea limbo https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5773872/2024/09/18/conor-gallagher-Chelsea-atletico-interview/ “It was definitely worth the wait,” says Atletico Madrid midfielder Conor Gallagher, with the sun shining on their training ground in the leafy suburbs of the Spanish capital. The Athletic has just asked Gallagher how he feels after scoring his first goal for his new club in Sunday’s 3-0 La Liga win against visitors Valencia at the Estadio Metropolitano. “The wait” was a reference to a tough few weeks for Gallagher in August, when his €42million (£35.5m/$47m) move from Chelsea hung in the balance. There was a real possibility the 24-year-old England international could find himself excluded from any first-team football for the 2023-24 season. GO DEEPER Inside Conor Gallagher's chaotic wait for his Chelsea future to be resolved When it’s put to Gallagher that he has taken a step up in his career and arrived at a place where he is truly appreciated, he agrees. “I’ve felt very wanted and appreciated, which is important for any footballer,” he says. “Chelsea are a huge football club, one of the biggest in the world, along with Atletico. But I have taken that exciting step of playing Champions League football and challenging for trophies. It just builds me with even more confidence and happiness to play my best football.” That wait to become an Atletico player feels like a long time ago now for Gallagher, who speaks glowingly about his start to life in Spain. “I’m really happy to be here and I’m settling in well,” he says. “I’ve loved my first few weeks. I knew Atletico was always a massive club, a top club in La Liga and doing well in the Champions League. So I was excited to join. “It was really good to win against Valencia and score my first goal. Hopefully, we can build on this and I can gain more confidence.” Gallagher was earmarked early this summer as one of Atletico’s top midfield targets, with his box-to-box style fitting the profile coach Diego Simeone wanted to add to his team. Chelsea offered him a stark choice — sign a two-year contract extension, agree to join Atletico or stay but be excluded from the first-team squad. He arrived in Madrid on August 8 and Atletico even posted images of him training with some of his new team-mates — but the agreement with Chelsea required 20-year-old striker Samu Omorodion to move the other way. When Omorodion’s transfer fell through, Gallagher returned to London, and Atletico explored other options, including Valencia’s Javi Guerra and Mikel Merino, who at that point had yet to join Arsenal from Real Sociedad. During the hold-up, Valencia’s sporting director Miguel Angel Corona made the explosive claim that Atletico had tried to “get out” of a deal to sign Gallagher — a version of events disputed by both the Madrid club and Chelsea. It was close to a fortnight before the deal was revived by Chelsea agreeing to buy Joao Felix from Atletico for €60million. It can’t have been an easy time for Gallagher — was his final feeling the wrench of leaving the club who had formed him after 15 years or relief that his time in limbo was over? “It was just (being) full of excitement to be joining Atletico,” Gallagher says. “When I look back at my memories at Chelsea, I’m very proud and honoured to play for the club. It was time to move on and Atletico is the perfect club to make the next chapter in my career. I feel very lucky and fortunate to be in this position.” During that period of uncertainty, Gallagher could not train with Chelsea’s first team, so had to work individually at their Cobham base. This was not exactly ideal preparation for Simeone’s physical and intensive pre-season training, which Gallagher had been warned about by England team-mate Kieran Trippier, a 2020-21 La Liga title winner at Atletico. “Kieran said that training was very intense, very hard,” Gallagher says. “But he knows me well from England and said it’s perfect for me, for how I am as a player and what I am like at training. “It was tough at the start, the weather was very hot, but I’m quite a fit player, I’m able to adapt to the conditions and the intensity that the manager likes me to play at. That’s no problem and it’s only going to get better.” Hours after being flown to Madrid by Atletico for the second time, Gallagher was unveiled alongside fellow new arrivals Julian Alvarez, Robin Le Normand and Alexander Sorloth at a spectacular presentation event at the Metropolitano. Thirty-thousand Atletico fans cheered as Gallagher was escorted from the players’ tunnel by a convoy of Harley-Davidson riders, with Guns N’ Roses’ Welcome To The Jungle blaring out and fireworks sparking across the night sky. “It was all a bit of a surprise,” Gallagher says with a smile. “I didn’t think it would be as good and as big as it was. It was very exciting, a very, very nice welcome. “It was definitely different. In the Premier League, they don’t do welcomes like this. It was very special, and they did it for every new player — the women and the men. It made all of the new players feel at home straight away.” During the ceremony, Atletico’s new No 4 was introduced over the loudspeaker as a “pitbull” who would bring “new lungs” to the team. “I think that (the pitbull nickname) was something Atletico made up,” Gallagher says. “Some people in England call me a dog, because of how I play on the pitch. Sometimes I just run after every ball, like a dog does in the park. It kind of stuck. (Atletico) took it from there. I don’t mind. I take it as a compliment.” The supporters have already warmed to Gallagher’s style of play. On his debut against Girona, he earned his first roars of appreciation for a sequence when he carried the ball towards the opposition box, lost it to Yangel Herrera, but then chased back and upended the Venezuelan midfielder. “Atletico is perfect to showcase my abilities,” says Gallagher. “The fans and the manager and my team-mates appreciate hard work and passion on the football pitch — I can bring a lot of that.” Sunday’s comprehensive 3-0 win against Valencia showcased another side to this Atletico team. Gallagher’s opening goal was a tidy finish set up by Argentina midfielder Rodrigo De Paul’s perfectly timed and weighted assist after a passing move orchestrated by Antoine Griezmann. Fans used to thinking of Simeone’s Atletico as a ‘dogs of war’ team might have been taken aback at the technical quality of the move, but not Gallagher. He says his first memory of Atletico is their 4-1 win against Chelsea in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup, when striker Radamel Falcao scored a hat-trick. “I’m not surprised,” Gallagher says. “Every top club has a lot of technical and talented footballers. The manager has his style of football. It’s brilliant, and I’m really excited to keep working with him and understand more how I can help the team.” Simeone, a 108-cap Argentina midfielder himself back in the day, has been working closely with Gallagher, offering instructions and advice and helping him understand what his role in the team should be. “We need a translator to help the communication, but soon I’ll be able to understand his Spanish,” says Gallagher, who has started language lessons. “He understands my game well, what I’m best at, and what I’m not so good at. The last few games he has told me my strengths, and what I should be doing on the pitch, which has really helped me feel confident and comfortable in my role in my team.” Against Valencia, his first full 90 minutes for Atletico, Gallagher began to the left of a narrow midfield three. He was urged to break forward into the penalty area, as he did when becoming the first Englishman ever to score for the club in La Liga. It was reminiscent of Gallagher’s role on loan at Crystal Palace from Chelsea during the 2021-22 season, when he scored eight goals in 34 Premier League games under another former elite midfielder in Patrick Vieira. “(Simeone) asks me to get in the box when I can,” says Gallagher. “And that’s what I try to do. I was lucky enough to get the good pass from Rodrigo and get my first goal. Hopefully, I can continue to do that, and get some more goals.” Atletico begin their Champions League campaign tomorrow (Thursday) at home against German visitors RB Leipzig. Then there is the first ‘derbi’ of the season against Real Madrid at the Metropolitano on September 29. That could mean a first meeting in La Liga with England colleague Jude Bellingham. “I’ve not seen Jude since I moved to Madrid, but we’ll have a good chat the next time I see him,” says Gallagher. “I’m really excited for (the derby). Jude is an incredible footballer and a top guy as well. Any time I play against him is going to be a difficult game.” That game against the reigning Spanish and European champions will be a tough test for this new-look Atletico. They spent more than €200million this summer on Gallagher, ex-Manchester City striker Alvarez, Spain’s European Championship-winning centre-back Le Normand and Sorloth, the former Crystal Palace striker who scored 23 La Liga goals for Villarreal last season. A window like that brings expectation and pressure for Atletico to win a trophy this season. But Gallagher’s reply of the “partido a partido” (“game by game”) mantra repeated so often by Simeone shows he is quickly settling in. “Winning something is the aim,” he says. “The whole team is confident we can do this. The manager has said we need to take one game at a time. There are a lot of games and we need to stay focused. Every game matters so much. That is what we are focused on now — the next game.” GO DEEPER Champions League Briefing - Kane and Bayern's records, Endrick's impact and two outrageous goals

Could Jadon Sancho be the left-side threat Chelsea have lacked since Eden Hazard left? https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5767296/2024/09/15/jadon-sancho-Chelsea-left-side-threat/ In recent weeks, the first bullet point of the opposition scouting report on Chelsea has become increasingly clear: stop their right flank and you have a great chance to beat them. Wolves had paid a brutal price for giving Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke space to combine on that side in the second half of last month’s 6-2 defeat at Molineux. Bournemouth were determined not to make the same mistake — Lewis Cook man-marked Palmer in the right half-space while Milos Kerkez harassed Madueke from behind near the touchline. Even if one of Chelsea’s two most dangerous attackers received a forward pass with a successful first touch, no second touch went without a foul. Although it was not particularly subtle, it was highly effective. Madueke, scorer of four goals in his last six appearances for club and country, was reduced to gesturing in frustration when substituted in the 62nd minute at the Vitality Stadium. Palmer endured his quietest stretch on the pitch since his peripheral first half against Manchester City at Stamford Bridge on the opening weekend. Yet despite successfully shutting down the area of the pitch that contained Chelsea’s only reliable path to chance creation, Bournemouth lost. Their unlikely defeat was a tale of Sanchez and Sancho, and the way it played out could be hugely significant to the development of Enzo Maresca’s team. Robert Sanchez enjoyed the biggest night of his Chelsea career in goal, capping a string of solid saves with a spectacular dive to his left to keep out Evanilson’s first-half penalty kick and bail out Wesley Fofana for a horrendously botched backpass. Stirred by that reprieve, the half-time introduction of Jadon Sancho truly transformed the game and offered a tantalising glimpse into how he could change Chelsea for the better. Over the last six seasons, Chelsea’s attack has changed as much in style as it has in personnel, from a unit dominated by a master creator operating from the left (Eden Hazard) to one primarily deployed on the right (Palmer). Between those two polar extremes came a steady flow of influence from left to right under Thomas Tuchel, primarily driven by the understandable desire to maximise the rare attacking talents of Reece James as a rampaging wing-back. The graphic below shows how the distribution of Chelsea’s final-third entries in the Premier League has changed, with nearly a third of their attacks coming down the left flank six years ago but under a quarter last season. Any team’s attacking patterns will invariably skew towards the location of their best players, but a dramatic imbalance is rarely healthy. Hazard’s brilliance in 2018-19 was even more astonishing because Chelsea’s opponents frequently loaded their defensive resources towards him, away from the opposite flank where Cesar Azpilicueta and Willian offered more tactical ballast than creative balance. It was a similar story last season when Palmer frequently tormented teams from the right but Mauricio Pochettino struggled to get any consistent attacking production out of his left side. On that flank, Raheem Sterling did not deliver goals and assists at the level of a squad’s highest earner and Mykhailo Mudryk frequently looked unprepared to make a positive impact on Premier League games. Pedro Neto’s arrival from Wolves for £51.4million ($67m) last month was Chelsea’s first attempt to address this specific need in the transfer market but the Portuguese left-footer looks a little too predictable in his movements on the left flank. In the first half at the Vitality Stadium, he even struggled to get consistent touches amid a swarming Bournemouth press. His toils were amplified by Maresca’s surprising deployment of full-back Marc Cucurella as a receiver in the left half-space when Chelsea were in possession. Tracked dutifully by his marker Antoine Semenyo, Cucurella offered little more than an unusual distraction in the opening 45 minutes, giving the entire left side of the team the look of a post-modern tactical experiment. It took Sancho three minutes on the pitch to make sense of it all, receiving the ball in space on the left and playing a quick, incisive pass to pick out Cucurella’s underlapping run into a crossing position; the resulting delivery came agonisingly close to giving Madueke a tap-in. From that moment, he oozed confidence and class, immediately sure of his place in Maresca’s system and his ability to find his new team-mates in front of the travelling Chelsea fans, who needed no second invitation to sing his name. Shortly before the hour mark, he edged infield from the left, freezing two Bournemouth defenders with a tight dribble and manufacturing a window through which he flicked a pass right to an unmarked Jackson, who curled over. That proved a prelude to the sequence that resulted in Chelsea’s winner: Sancho angling his body infield to survey his options, jinking and shifting to create separation from his defender, then picking the perfect time to find Christopher Nkunku with the momentum and weight of pass that enabled the Frenchman to swivel and wriggle between three Bournemouth defenders and beat Mark Travers with a quick shot, as clever as it was clinical. Chelsea fans have grown accustomed to seeing Palmer nonchalantly dissect Premier League defences with similar passes from the right side over the past year. Now, in Sancho, they have a winger with the vision, spatial awareness and ball mastery to do the same from the left, which should make life much harder on opponents with finite defensive tools to stifle Maresca’s attack. “I said when we brought in Jadon that the reason why is because we were looking for another winger like Noni,” Maresca said after the Bournemouth win. “Noni is doing that on the right side, winning one-v-one, creating chances, scoring goals and we were looking for the same on our left side with Jadon.” The key for Chelsea’s new attacking balance is ensuring they get this version of Sancho consistently — the Borussia Dortmund vintage rather than the tainted Manchester United variety. If they do, supporters will be singing his name weekly and Maresca’s front line will soon be the spectacular sum of its hugely talented individual parts.

Chelsea Women’s Jorja Fox suffers ACL injury https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5779119/2024/09/19/jorja-fox-Chelsea-acl-injury/ Chelsea Women right-back Jorja Fox, on loan at Crystal Palace, is set for an extended period on the sidelines after sustaining an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. The 21-year-old, who recently signed a new deal at the west London club through to 2027, will undergo a period of rehabilitation at Chelsea, having also suffered an ACL injury in May 2023. This is the second ACL injury in the space of a week for Chelsea following midfielder Sophie Ingle sustaining the injury, with strikers Sam Kerr and Mia Fishel both also out with a similar issue. In December 2023, Chelsea defender Aniek Nouwen also suffered the same injury. Only the injuries sustained by Kerr and Ingle actually occurred at Chelsea, with Fox’s injuries happening during spells at Brighton & Hove Albion and Palace respectively, while Fishel was on international duty with the USWNT and Nouwen was with the Netherlands Under-23 squad. Fox has made five first-team appearances for Chelsea, having previously had loan spells at Charlton Athletic and Brighton. GO DEEPER ACL injuries in women's football: Why the high risk and can they be prevented? What is an ACL injury? An anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is a tear or sprain of the ACL, one of the strong bands of tissue that connect the thigh bone (femur) to shinbone (tibia) at the knee joint. The ACL runs diagonally through the inside of the knee to give the joint stability. The ACL also adds stability nd control for vertical movement of the lower leg. Knee injuries can occur during sports such as skiing, tennis, squash, football and rugby. ACL injuries are one of the most common types of knee injuries. ACL tears occur when the lower leg extends forward too much, while the muscle can also be torn if the knee and lower leg are twisted. These injuries are common across sports, including football, and can be a result of an incorrect landing from a jump, a sudden stop or change of direction, or an overextension following a collision. Surgery is often required following these injuries, which can result in lengthy delays lasting multiple months. GO DEEPER Footwear problems show 'systemic gender inequality' in sport - British MPs (Harriet Lander – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)

Anthony Taylor not given Premier League game after showing record number of yellow cards last weekend https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5773153/2024/09/17/anthony-taylor-referee-yellow-cards/ Anthony Taylor will not referee a Premier League fixture this weekend after issuing the most yellow cards in top-flight history during Chelsea’s clash against Bournemouth last Saturday. Despite not being put on refereeing duties for any of the 10 matches in matchweek five, Taylor will be the fourth official for Ipswich Town’s trip to Southampton on Saturday and Brighton & Hove Albion’s match against Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL), the body overseeing officiating in English football, clarified that no referee officiates every matchweek, as they rotate between refereeing, serving as fourth officials and handling video assistant referee (VAR) duties. Last Saturday’s match between Bournemouth and Chelsea saw 14 players shown a yellow card at the Vitality Stadium, as well as head coaches Andoni Iraola and Enzo Maresca. Despite the flurry of cautions, no players were sent off. Six Bournemouth players received a yellow card, while eight from Chelsea were also booked. Taylor was subjected to abuse online following the game with the Premier League now looking into particularly threatening messages and the PGMOL offering their support. GO DEEPER Behold the Premier League's worst-behaved match ever: We recap all 14 bookings A record number of 65 yellow cards were shown in the Premier League on matchweek four. On Sunday, Australian referee Jarred Gillett issued seven yellow cards during the first half of the north London derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, only booking one player after the break. Taylor, meanwhile, was promoted to the Select Group panel of referees in 2010, allowing him to referee Premier League matches. The 45-year-old has also officiated major finals including the 2015 League Cup and the FA Cup in 2017 and 2020. Taylor’s international career took off in 2013 when he became a FIFA-listed referee, enabling him to referee UEFA and FIFA matches, including the Super Cup in 2020 and the Nations League Final in 2021.

Enzo Maresca’s big call at Chelsea: Nkunku or Jackson up front? https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5773427/2024/09/18/Chelsea-jackson-nkunku-maresca/ Jabbing a finger into his own chest as he ran towards the travelling Chelsea supporters at the Vitality Stadium, Christopher Nkunku’s energy in celebrating his winning goal over Bournemouth was as much angry defiance as pure jubilation. “The reason I used Christo in that moment was I thought we were creating chances but we lacked quality inside the box,” Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca said after the match, explaining his decision to introduce Nkunku from the bench in place of Nicolas Jackson in the 79th minute. “So the idea to use him as a No 9 was because, any ball inside the box, we know he’s a quality player and could decide the game.” Nkunku revealed that Maresca had told him to “enjoy” his 11 minutes on the pitch. He certainly relished receiving Jadon Sancho’s clever pass on the swivel, bouncing between two Bournemouth defenders and poking the ball just inside Mark Travers’ far post, but the frustration that poured out of him immediately after the goal was equally understandable. Having featured more than anyone else in Maresca’s squad during pre-season, Nkunku appeared primed to announce himself in the Premier League in the manner that was denied him by a succession of injuries in 2023-24. Instead, he has found himself the most unexpected victim of an attacking rotation at Chelsea that became markedly more crowded in August with the arrivals of Pedro Neto, Joao Felix and Sancho. As he had been against Crystal Palace a week earlier, Nkunku was Maresca’s third attacker off the bench against Bournemouth. A growing number of Chelsea fans are wondering if he should instead be the team’s first-choice striker — particularly since the words of his head coach could also be viewed as an implicit criticism of Jackson, who drew one reasonable save from Travers but rarely looked a threat at the Vitality Stadium. The lobby for deploying Nkunku as a No 9 is as much about Jackson, who continues to be a strangely polarising figure in the grand Chelsea picture. Scoring 14 non-penalty goals in his debut Premier League campaign helped secure a new contract that extends his stay at Stamford Bridge until June 2033 — the joint-longest commitment in the squad along with the improved deal given to Cole Palmer earlier this season — and yet the Senegal international remains a popular target of mockery for rival fans as well as derision from vocal sections of the Chelsea support. Jackson has not yet proven himself capable of being a finisher on par with Nkunku’s highest levels of efficiency at RB Leipzig (the Frenchman scored 32 non-penalty goals, 5.4 more than expected, in his two final Bundesliga campaigns). Jackson significantly underperformed relative to his non-penalty xG (npxG) in the Premier League in 2023-24, scoring around 4.6 goals fewer than expected, according to Opta. This stands out relative to the top 10 scorers of non-penalty goals in the Premier League last season, though it is interesting to note that Erling Haaland also underperformed his npxG: Jackson’s return of two non-penalty goals in the first four Premier League matches of 2024-25 also constitutes an underperformance relative to his npxG of 2.5. But to focus solely on finishing efficiency (which can fluctuate wildly from season to season) is to relegate the single most reliable indicator of a player that has the capability to be a prolific goalscorer: the ability to generate expected goals (xG) in the first place. Haaland was the only player in the Premier League to generate more non-penalty expected goals than Jackson in 2023-24. Even adjusting for minutes played, the Senegal international’s 0.6 npxG per 90 minutes ranked behind only the Manchester City phenomenon and Newcastle star Alexander Isak, whom Chelsea enquired about signing in the summer: Jackson may not be converting his scoring chances with elite efficiency just yet, but he is getting himself into scoring positions with elite regularity. It is little wonder why Chelsea are so bullish on a 23-year-old who has only played as a No 9 for 18 months, particularly since composure and finishing technique are easier to learn and hone on the training pitch than the subtle nuances of movement, timing and instincts. None of which is to discount the possibility that Nkunku might be the better No 9 option for Chelsea right now. There is an increasingly substantial body of evidence over the past four years to indicate that he is an above-average finisher, and it is hard to imagine Jackson being able to manufacture the narrow shooting window in a crowded Bournemouth penalty area as deftly as he did. Jackson’s other skills are the bulwark of his case to remain a Chelsea starter: his selfless pressing, his intelligent movement, his improving hold-up play and his often sublime link-up with attacking teammates. He more often than not makes those around him better but similar can be said of Nkunku, who can do most of the same things to at least an equivalent level. The best argument against regularly starting Nkunku as a No 9 is that he has even less experience leading an attack as a lone striker than Jackson; his two best scoring seasons at RB Leipzig were achieved orbiting Andre Silva, a more traditional focal point frontman. Many of Chelsea’s best pre-season moments under Mauricio Pochettino in the summer of 2023 came from Nkunku and Jackson combining in the final third. Maresca would do well to get them both into the same team, but at whose expense? Nkunku is not a winger, and he is unlikely to be deployed as the left-sided No 8 as long as Palmer also operates centrally — not least because Moises Caicedo needs someone standing within 30 yards of him in midfield. Maresca’s primary duty is to pick a balanced, coherent team, regardless of who is in it. Chelsea’s summer transfer activity has left him with far more attacking weapons than Pochettino had, but also many more difficult decisions. “At the end of the game I just said to the players — Christo, Cole, Jadon, Joao, Noni (Madueke), Misha (Mykhailo Mudryk), Pedro — they are not all going to play all the games,” Maresca said after the Bournemouth win. “All they need to do is exactly what they did tonight.” A run of games as a No 9 at Jackson’s expense could be in Nkunku’s future at Chelsea. Or there could simply be more cameo appearances, and enjoyment tinged with anger.

My predictions for Arsenal's summer 2025 3 main buys CF Viktor Gyökeres LW (one of the following) Florian Wirtz Jamal Musiala Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Rafael Leão less likely Xavi Simons Nico Williams Bradley Barcola CMF/DMF Martín Zubimendi or maybe (if either are available) Gavi or Pedri

Lautaro no longer has a £93m release clause he renewed in August until 2029 and volunatarily had the release clause removed there is no chance he is leaving Inter for some time he turns 30yo in summer 2027 so very unlikely we would even mover for him unless it was next summer (and at 28yo he will be past our age boundary) and that will be almost impossible, especially as he is the Inter captain now the main teams I can see moving for him are Real and Barca, whichever one doesnt get Håland down the road, or maybe PSG (I canot see him all that enthused about moving to PSG) or maybe, maybe Arsenal (Gyökeres seems a better fit for them overall) or Pool

he needs to become consistently fully healthy or he needs to be sold my last bit of patience will be gone if he is still injured come springtime he is a shadow of his former self from 2, 3, 4 years ago we need to replace him at RW (Malo competition) with one of the following Achraf Hakimi (crazy hard pull) Jeremie Frimpong Michael Kayode Nahuel Molina Wilfried Singo (can play CB as well, 1.90m) Vanderson Kiliann Sildillia Héctor Fort Arnau Martínez Lorenz Assignon Josha Vagnoman Iván Fresneda

Foot: left the last thing we need is another left footed right winger

down go Barca

Monaco 2 1 over Barca atm

Sterling is the first English player to play for 4 diuffrent teams in the CL

Sterling and Calafiori on

Square on (Cuadrado) 36yo

Raya so far this season 93.3 save percentage (all plays, not just pens) highest in the Big Five leagues last season, when he won the EPL golden glove, it was 68%

world class

what a save (twice) by Raya!!!!!

yep pen good VAR

lets see what VAR says

no inside

seems to have started outside the box

pen on Arse pending VAR

none will come here anyway I wager but is nice to lay down preditictions overall it hardly takes a tonne of research

I highly doubt Dias would come here, unfortunately best CBs on the planet atm IMHO included four 30 somethings William Saliba Rúben Dias Ronald Araujo Alessandro Bastoni Gabriel Magalhães Antonio Rüdiger Virgil van Dijk Bremer Marquinhos John Stones