here are the best points totals possible for Spuds and Arse in a number of situs
we are on 67 atm, with 3 games left
the most we can get (win all 3) is 76, which guarantees 3rd place no matter what
Arse win out (meaning they beat spuds) 75
Spuds win out (meaning they beat arse) 71
Arse lose to spuds, win the rest 72
spuds lose to arse, win the rest 68
Arse draws with spuds, win the rest 73
spuds draws with arse, wins the rest 69
IF we beat Watford (by far the worst teams of the 3, although Leeds are shit too) we are at 70, same for if we only beat Leeds or only beat Leicester and lose the other 2
and the ONLY way we end up 5th is simple: we would have to lose the other two games, and spuds wins out (71), and Arse wins out save for losing to spuds (72) <<< the bad thing is, this is VERY likely IF spuds beat arse
so we need a win and draw at a minimum to ensure (due to GD) at least 4th if spuds win out
if spuds win out, 3 draws fucks us, we will likely end 5th by one fucking point
IF Arse draws or loses to spuds, 2 wins for us guarantees THIRD (on GD or outright)
IF arse beats spuds, the only way we likely finish above them is to win all 3
thus all assumes arse beats Leeds
Leeds just scored so 1 2 atm