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Jason

1. Kepa Arrizabalaga

Started by Jason,

1,715 posts in this topic
13 minutes ago, Sideshow Luiz said:

I'm not convinced that his distribution is all that good, TBH.

Was tearing my hair out at the players continuously passing around the back when being pressured but given that's the way we want to play under Sarri, Kepa did alright in those situations. Imagine Courtois trying to do that! I know he's most the expensive keeper in the world but easy to forget that he's only 23 and is in his first season in English. Let's see how he does in a few months after we (hopefully) get used to Sarri's methods.

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4 minutes ago, Jason said:

Suspect he had nerves in his first home game? Spilled the ball twice from simple shots shot straight at him. On the two goals, especially the first one, it feels like it's easy to criticize keepers in such situations. Sometimes the player may just hit with too much pace and power for the keeper to stop, even at the near post. 

Agree with that. Maybe Kepa should have done better with the two goals but if you keep giving the opposing team time and space to shoot into practically an open goal time and time again, then you gotta look at issues beyond the keeper. No team should have been allowed to create that many chances from simple cutbacks, like Arsenal did.

Yeah perhaps some nerves but again, the ones he spilled he was very quick to react to and made up for it. Yeah the first one was generally poor defending. The cut backs caused a lot of problems in that 20-25 mins before half time where they edged into it, they had 3 other big chances they could have scored, if I was an Arsenal fan I'd be gutted that my team couldn't put any of them away because they were huge chances. I think Kepa will not be an outstanding GK straight away, hes been good, reliable in his 2 games but he still has to grow as a player and also physically I'd imagine he will undergo a programme to put on a bit of weight just for the difference in how much protection GKs maybe don't get as much as in Spain, needs a bit more I think, or even naturally in the long run he'll perhaps fill out a bit more. 

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Just now, Jason said:

Was tearing my hair out at the players continuously passing around the back when being pressured but given that's the way we want to play under Sarri, Kepa did alright in those situations. Imagine Courtois trying to do that! I know he's most the expensive keeper in the world but easy to forget that he's only 23 and is in his first season in English. Let's see how he does in a few months after we (hopefully) get used to Sarri's methods.

Don't get me wrong, I know he's not the finished article.  I just didn't think his distribution skills have been all that.  Better than Courtois? yes.  If it doesn't get better, yes, there's a problem.  but, it's because that would mean he's hit his peak as a GK at 23.

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2 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

I think Kepa will not be an outstanding GK straight away, hes been good, reliable in his 2 games but he still has to grow as a player and also physically I'd imagine he will undergo a programme to put on a bit of weight just for the difference in how much protection GKs maybe don't get as much as in Spain, needs a bit more I think, or even naturally in the long run he'll perhaps fill out a bit more. 

 

Just now, Sideshow Luiz said:

Don't get me wrong, I know he's not the finished article.  I just didn't think his distribution skills have been all that.  Better than Courtois? yes.  If it doesn't get better, yes, there's a problem.  but, it's because that would mean he's hit his peak as a GK at 23.

As long as he continues to improve and get better, then we will be in good hands. Courtois came back from Madrid in good shape but then stagnated over the last 2-3 years. 

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not a great debut (at the bridge), but a good/decent one.

Imagine his nerves playing to that crowd the first time in a frenetic derby with everything moving a hell lot faster than he was used to. 

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I am satisfied completely, he will so grow into the position and the EPL itself, we have a gem on our hands, naysayers aside. WE are set at GK for years to come. Huge plus is we saw the backside of that twat (as a person and a, cough,cough ....professional), Courtois. We fucked up parking his on loan at AM, where he put roots down. Rule number one on loans, NEVER send a player back over and over to a good team in a superb city, if WILL bite you in the arse.

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I have nothing to complain about in regard to Kepa. It's just that I just haven't gotten over the decision to spend so big on him. I know Marcin won't be 19 for another couple of months but I'd have bitten the bullet, made the youngster our starter, and used the £71m to strengthen elsewhere. Still, we are where we are.

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3 minutes ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

I have nothing to complain about in regard to Kepa. It's just that I just haven't gotten over the decision to spend so big on him. I know Marcin won't be 19 for another couple of months but I'd have bitten the bullet, made the youngster our starter, and used the £71m to strengthen elsewhere. Still, we are where we are.

To be fair, it's only 35 million but can see where you're coming from. 

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1 hour ago, Sideshow Luiz said:

Don't get me wrong, I know he's not the finished article.  I just didn't think his distribution skills have been all that.  Better than Courtois? yes.  If it doesn't get better, yes, there's a problem.  but, it's because that would mean he's hit his peak as a GK at 23.

The comparison I look at, and can't reconcile myself to, is Kepa vs Marcin + £71m running about at full back, centre back, or striker. I am going to have to stop fretting about this decision sooner or later but I'm not there yet.

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3 minutes ago, Jason said:

To be fair, it's only 35 million but can see where you're coming from. 

No it's definitely £71m. Thibaut was going to be sold in either scenario. If we don't buy Kepa, and start Marcin instead, then we have £71m more in our bank account or £71m of additional player(s) running around on the pitch. 

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1 minute ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

No it's definitely £71. Thibaut was going to be sold in either scenario. If we don't buy Kepa, and start Marcin instead, then we have £71m more in our bank account or £71m of additional player(s) running around on the pitch. 

Well if you put it that way, then I guess yeah. :lol: 

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Was always going to be close to impossible to fill the gap Courtois left, who I think really think cemented his rank as one of the best keepers in the world the last few years. So far I am far from impressed with Kepa, but I hope the scouting network, Sarri and everyone else who rated him highly, has seen the potential, and maybe that he just has to settle into the league a bit. I do remember De Gea looking like a bit of a liability at first as well, so here's me hoping Kepa can develop similarly. But it has not been two good performances so far, and the defense does not seem to trust him either.

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You want WC, you have to pay WC money.

This is every (or almost every) remotely very wery good GK out there under 30

 

Jan Oblak    We offered £90m, he said no, now his release clause is 250m euros

David de Gea    zero chance we would be less that £90m to more likely £100m plus to prise him out


Thibaut Courtois    same valuation as De Gea, we fucked up by not selling him last year for top dollar to RM

Alisson   £67m is what was paid, we turned us down for LPool as they have CL and a far more settled situ atm. If he plays to level, put him down at £90m to £100m valuation
  
Marc-André ter Stegen   zero chance Barca sells him for less than £90m to £100m as well

Ederson    Not available, same price now as the other above

Kepa  Did we overpay purely on the NOW? yes, we were over a barrel, but only by £10m or 20m MAX, closer to £10m or so, and he is only 23, I rate him very very highly

Alex Meret  only 21, Napoli got him early in window for only £20m, he was my pre-window number one choice, then Strakosha, huge upside, probably will eventually be the Italian number one (or at least battle Donnarumma very very hard)


Gianluigi Donnarumma    £60-70m or so (maybe even more now) to actually pull him, now that the horrid American hedge fund has taken over AC Milan they are ruthless, AND he has regressed the last 6 months. This board would howling for his scalp if he made the errors for us he has made for AC Milan in last 6 months.
   
Thomas Strakosha    My target all along, once Meret was snapped up, 6 months younger than Kepa,  £40m to £50m would have surely prised him away, maybe less, but I apparently am the only one who pushed him hard, and that was as I mistakenly thought Kepa's release class was well over 100m

Jasper Cillessen    soon 30, no way is he at £40m to £50m a better deal than Kepa

Bernd Leno    meh, who the fuck cares, he cant even unseat Cech atm
 
Alban Lafont   19yo potential superstar, went for ridiculously low  £8m to Fiorentina (worth 3 to 4 TIMES that easily)


Mattia Perin     another miss by the board, is very very good, and went for only £11m to Juve! Same as Lafont, some really dodgy Serie A business sure seems to me, do NOT see how the same clubs buy and sell (officially) for insanely low valuations, it sure smells like dirty dealing under the table
 
André Onana    £30m to £40m is what Ajax want. I would pass, as he is a cunt in the dressing room and has slammed the team and manager in public


Alphonse Areola    another one we could have gotten for around £40m (£50m I am sure at the window end as PSG knew we were desperate) or so, but not the upside Kepa has
 

Anthony Lopes same valuation  roughly as Areola, and will be 30 in early part of 2020-21 season

I absolutely do not rate Butland or Pickford, sorry, no thanks

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8 hours ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

The comparison I look at, and can't reconcile myself to, is Kepa vs Marcin + £71m running about at full back, centre back, or striker. I am going to have to stop fretting about this decision sooner or later but I'm not there yet.

If not Kepa, it would have been another GK for £40m or more and the list is TINY of those who we could have pulled. Lets say we got Stakosha or worse, Areola for £45m (as it was so late in the window). Do you really think we could get a top notch fullback for £25m??? Let alone a centre back or a striker.

We could have pulled Alex Telles, but he would have been around £35 to £40m. Alejandro Grimaldo the same. Jose Gaya £40m to 45m. All other available LBs are not good enough to surpass what we already have.

For a centre back who would fit into Sarriball, we could have gotten Thilo Kehrer from Schalke for around £33m, what PSG just paid for him, but after that the few truly top notch ones are all £40m plus, some over £50m and even up to £70m plus. They also were (mostly) not for sale. Benjamin Pavard will be at least £40m, and more likely far more if he progresses at Stuttgart year over year at the same level as rhe last 12 months. Marquinhos will be £70m, maybe more. Matthijs de Ligt will take £50m or more to prise him from Ajax. Dayot Upamecano probably £40m or so. Jonathan Tah is built like an American football linebacker, but not sure if he possesses the attributes Sarri is looking for. Savic of AM and Manolas of Roma do not. Manuel Akanji might, but again, £40m or so. Malang Sarr is only, 19 and would come in at around £30m or so, but I want to see one more good season out of him. Thats about it out there, the rest are not available plus would be insanely expensive if we tried to force buy.

As for strikers, Icardi was £98m for two weeks. Now will be at least £115m next July 1st to 15th. We should have swapped Willian for Martial. That wont happen now. Martial will be at least £70 to 80m. Unless Timo Werner takes it to another level or Belotti rebounds in a big way (and then both will be £70m plus) , that's literally it out there who is available of any sort of WC quality who is under 30.

We fucked up by not immediately going for Alex Meret, who Napoli got for only £20m in beginning of the window. Or Strakosha, early, who we might have only paid £35m, £40m for at that point.

The £25m or so that we would have (and this is not for sure we would have been able to buy them that low as both clubs knew we were desperate) saved by buying Strakosha or Areola late would not buy ANY of the players above. None. In almost all cases not even close.

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1 hour ago, Vesper said:

If not Kepa, it would have been another GK for £40m or more and the list is TINY of those who we could have pulled. Lets say we got Stakosha or worse, Areola for £45m (as it was so late in the window). Do you really think we could get a top notch fullback for £25m??? Let alone a centre back or a striker.

You've missed the point that I favoured the radical solution of installing Marcin Bulka as our starting goalkeeper. Hey presto the possibility of £71m to put toward a different player in our starting XI, or at worst £71m in the bank to spend another time. For example, I don't believe that Icardi was ever gettable but, if he was, he would have been more affordable with just an extra £27m to find rather than another £98m.

I'm not saying that I think Kepa is a bad keeper. Nor am I saying that he may not be better than Marcin. Time may show that he offers those extra bits of quality which justify the decision to sign him. The fact that we haven't seen this yet is neither here nor there. If he has it, he'll prove it and I hope he does. I am saying however that I believe in Marcin. He's young but he's talented and he has the physical tools. In two months he'll be 19, the same age at which Thibaut became the starting goalkeeper for one of the best teams in the world. I grant you that Thibaut was more experienced at that time than Marcin is now, but I'd have taken that gamble.

The one direct comparison I'd make so far is that I think Marcin looks the better shot stopper. This opinion is based on very thin evidence of course, and it certainly isn't enough to suggest that Marcin is the better keeper overall. Not even close to enough, but it also doesn't rule out the possibility. In any case, Marcin does not need to be better to validate the gamble I'd have taken. He just needs to be good enough to deserve his place in the team and to satisfy the following inequality; (Marcin + another £71m worth of footballer) > Kepa.

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13 minutes ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

You've missed the point that I favoured the radical solution of installing Marcin Bulka as our starting goalkeeper. Hey presto the possibility of £71m to put toward a different player in our starting XI, or at worst £71m in the bank to spend another time.

For example, I don't believe that Icardi was ever gettable but, if he was, he would have been more affordable with just an extra £27m to find rather than another £98m.

Do you really think that we would roll with a 19yo absolutely untested (other than a few shit preseason games of nothingness) GK for a club carrying CL and top 4 ambitions?. Bulka was oki for a couple games against not exactly in form, top notch opponents, but it is (IMHO) madness to think he is capable at this point to make the jump from the reserves team to our number one keeper.

As for Icardi, we should have at least met his RL at the beginning of his 2 week window and saw what he said. Our board is really shit, as we have bungled 3 straight summer windows, and then, before that, made the horrid decisions to sell Salah and KDB with no buyback clauses (Lukaku I will not lose sleep over) There were multiple top notch keepers (listed above) for insanely low prices. Not saying they are are as good as Kepa, but maybe some will be, and would have been cheaper.The board is to blame for ALL of this, BUT no way we would have rolled with Bulka as number one, zero chance. We certainly could have had Meret for around £25m or Strakosha for £40m or so, early in the window. Those 2 are the closest to Kepa in talent and potential.

I wish I ran the transfers for us, but I don't have a spare £2 billion sitting around atm to buy out Roman.:(

If I did run it (and no, I am not going to go back in time and reclaim de Bruyne and/or Salah

I would have sure as fuck went ALL out (months of pre planning before window opened up) and hopefully ended up with

GK Alex Meret (or Strakosha)

GK  Angus Gunn

CB Rudiger

CB AC

CB Thilo Kehrer

CB Benjamin Pavard (and he would be backup RB)

CB Ampadu

LB Alex Sandro (failing that, Alex Telles)

LB Emerson

RB Sergi Roberto (you will see why below in the sales)

RB b/u/ rotation Pavard

DMF Kante

DMF/deep holding playmaker Jorginho

CMF Mateo Kovacic

CMF Manu Trigueros (or Roberto Gagliardini)

CMF/AMF Amadou Haidara

CMF/AMF Ruben Loftus-Cheek

AMF Barkley

AMF Talisca (January buy, as that is when his loan is up, AND, if he has NOT stepped up, I would sell RLC, with a buyback clause to finance this)

LW Hazard

LW CHO

RW Leon Bailey or Malcom (see below)

RW Pedro

Striker Martial

Striker Giroud

Striker Davie Selke

 

Sell (and ALL these could have been sold with just basic pre-planning)

 

Luiz to PSG, as they made offer and only then, when we refused, did they buy Thilo (above I BUY HIM)

Cahill (like 5 EPL teams made offers, he would have been GONE)

Alonso (to Barca, they want him for last 2 years) 

Azpi (Barca, and now you see why Sergi Roberto is my new starting RB)

Bakayoko (done basically now)

Drinkwater ( Would have made something happen, and/or used him as makeweight)

Cesc Fàbregas so many La Liga teams would buy him in a flash, and I replaced him with a mini version in Manu above

Moses, (so many teams enquired)

Álvaro Morata OUT

 

finally, from the beginning of the window, priority number one

Swap Willian for Martial, OR sell Willian to Barca and buy Malcom or Bailey and then BUY Martial

 

I have ran all the numbers, the shit all adds up to a net less outflow than we have spent as of NOW

 

roughly £300m in sales

roughly £380m or so in spend

net spend,£80m

and I toss £20m more for variances against us

£100m final net spend, for a great team, with depth and talent and youth at all positions, AND I kept Kante AND HAZARD

Its fucking nonsense that a billionaire cannot assemble a team to future-forward plan and execute all these transactions, the busier clubs this window have done close to this, and with FAR less resources

Bottom line

My team would beat the shit out of the current team

 

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