EURO 2024

[cosmicway 1,314]

 

[cosmicway 1,314]

 

HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE PACE OF A FOOTBALL MATCH ?

This relates to the corners market.
To predict the number of corners, over or under, we usually look at the teams statitstics.
We therefore say “Leeds and Liverpool win the most cornerts, so we concentrate on them”.
This is correct, it's not an error, but is it the best way.
Those of you who pay attention to the corners market have observed that for over 9 for example in English leagues it pays 2.00 to 2.10.
But South America pays 3.00 to 3.50 !
What's the difference ? It's the slow motion football of the South Americans.
Even the national team of Brazil are slow. True when their combinations work they are capable of fantastic things and we are all fans, but their build up was and remains slow.
And we are talking about the good Brazil teams (as only their 1990 team in Rome was a poor side).
 

What is it that I have observed then ?
When the teams play fast and they both wante to score, there are many corners.
For example the recent champions league final between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund (17 corners).
Counter example was Serbia v. England in this Euro. Serbia were defending high so as not to concede and on the other hand Southgate was also ultra-conservative. Result was only three corners.

How are corners conceded ?
Most of the time it's the low cross from near the goal line intercepted by a defender.
Then shots towards goal again intercepted by a defender or by the goalkeeper.
Then the long-high crosses.
Other ways are less frequent and more or less coincidental.

So we don't see corners when the teams play slow, also -I think it's obvious- when the match is locked, settled (if it is 3-0 both give up, one side throws the white towel, the other side becomes conservative).

Therefore what we are looking for is a parameter that predicts the pace of the game.
Sometimes it is obvious enough, from the actual teams involved and their respective motivations.
So yesterday our friends the Germans whom we all secretly support. They would n't go after Hungary playing slow motion. But the Hungarians also did not have the luxury not to go for goal if they could. Result was 18 corners !

But is there someone who keep such statistics ?
For example the total distance in kilometers the two teams ran in the 90 minutes.

[Vesper 28,729]

UEFA Euro.

Slovenia SVN vs SerbiaLIVE0:0

20 June 2024 at 14:00.

 

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[Vesper 28,729]

[whats happening 1,525]

we are the worst team at the euros, no contest.

[NikkiCFC 7,928]

Really like Sesko. Unlucky not to have a couple this tournament. 

[Vesper 28,729]

43 minutes ago, whats happening said:

we are the worst team at the euros, no contest.

no service for your two top class CFs

[Vesper 28,729]

Mitrovic got to 50 international goals faster than both CR7 and Pessi

[Vesper 28,729]

so many poor crosses

[Vesper 28,729]

Nice goal

[LAM09 6,739]

49 minutes ago, whats happening said:

we are the worst team at the euros, no contest.

As a neutral, it seems like no matter how well Serbia do during qualifying (still remember their perfect record to get to the 2006 WC, IIRC), they never seem to deliver in tournaments.

[Vesper 28,729]

Great block

[whats happening 1,525]

1 minute ago, LAM09 said:

As a neutral, it seems like no matter how well Serbia do during qualifying (still remember their perfect record to get to the 2006 WC, IIRC), they never seem to deliver in tournaments.

we barely got out for this championship in the worst qualifing gruop in the history.

[LAM09 6,739]

6 minutes ago, whats happening said:

we barely got out for this championship in the worst qualifing gruop in the history.

The same could be said about WC qualifying. A last minute winner saw you seal a place.

Let's not forget that perhaps two of your best players went on a cash grab. I'm not criticising them for their decision, but it will eventually have an impact.

Edited June 20 by LAM09

[Vesper 28,729]

Serbian fans being naughty

[whats happening 1,525]

13 minutes ago, LAM09 said:

The same could be said about WC qualifying. A last minute winner saw you seal a place.

Let's not forget that perhaps two of your best players went on a cash grab. I'm not criticising them for their decision, but it will eventually have an impact.

sergej was always a disappointment for the nt. 

mitrovic is still good but he cant do shit alone. our players are overrated but even a slightly better manager would have set up a better system than this abomination that stojkovic is playing.

[Vesper 28,729]

wow!

last kick of the game

1 1

[Vesper 28,729]

damn shame for Slovenia