Wishlist Steven Fletcher

[SeB 1,281]

WHAT??? You don't know what is the shooting goals added???

I did not know that stuff before, that's actually a twiend of mine who twitted that to me

I did find that, it seems to be a manner to calculate and sort the chances depending of the position (xG) and the direction of the shoot( xG(OT) ), before minus after

http://www.optasport...-departees.aspx

WhoScored.com is actually a kindergarden thing

[zolayes 14,489]

At the risk of sounding ignorant, what exactly is shooting goals added? I know it's defined at the bottom of the pic but I still don't get it, would really appreciate it if you can explain it please

well since it is the difference between 2 probabilities ...the maximum value it can be is ONE

[SeB 1,281]

well since it is the difference between 2 probabilities ...the maximum value it can be is ONE

I read the definition but to be fair I didn't understood that much more, I've always been crap with math anyway

[CHOULO19 24,332]

WHAT??? You don't know what is the shooting goals added???

I did not know that stuff before, that's actually a twiend of mine who twitted that to me

I did find that, it seems to be a manner to calculate and sort the chances depending of the position (xG) and the direction of the shoot( xG(OT) ), before minus after

http://www.optasport...-departees.aspx

WhoScored.com is actually a kindergarden thing

Haha cheers mate.

well since it is the difference between 2 probabilities ...the maximum value it can be is ONE

Yeah but somehow the values are all above 1. Apparently math has changed since I was last in school

[zolayes 14,489]

maximum probability is 1 which is certainty

minimum is Zero ..impossible //

justs shows their stats are RUBBISH

[TorontoChelsea 4,064]

At the risk of sounding ignorant, what exactly is shooting goals added? I know it's defined at the bottom of the pic but I still don't get it, would really appreciate it if you can explain it please

It's how many more goals they scored than you would expect them to score based on where they took their shots...or something like that....so Fletcher scored 4.1 more goals than would have been expected from the positions he was in when he shot. It seems to me a very difficult stat to believe in simply because every situation is different, but I think that's it.

[CHOULO19 24,332]

maximum probability is 1 which is certainty

minimum is Zero ..impossible //

justs shows their stats are RUBBISH

Agreed, I can't understand it, it must be wrong

Seriously though the two numbers that are subtracted are actually both a sum of probabilities that's why their difference can be greater than one.

For those who want to know, this brilliant stat is a great way of telling which players make the best of their chances. Fletcher, in this example, made in 70 shots 4.1 more goals (in theory) than the average due to the quality of his finishing. Does that make any sense?

[CHOULO19 24,332]

It's how many more goals they scored than you would expect them to score based on where they took their shots...or something like that....so Fletcher scored 4.1 more goals than would have been expected from the positions he was in when he shot. It seems to me a very difficult stat to believe in simply because every situation is different, but I think that's it.

Actually it's not whether he scored but what the probability of him scoring after the shot minus the probability to score from that position, or at least that's what it says in the link SeB posted

[TorontoChelsea 4,064]

Actually it's not whether he scored but what the probability of him scoring after the shot minus the probability to score from that position, or at least that's what it says in the link SeB posted

You're right. I was looking at expected goals. Anyway, it has something to do with efficiency...or scoring goals...or at least football. I'm pretty sure of that.

[Bir_CFC 3,455]

It just means he outperforms his expected goal-scoring ability, meaning he converts more chances than he would have expected to be.

[CHOULO19 24,332]

You're right. I was looking at expected goals. Anyway, it has something to do with efficiency...or scoring goals...or at least football. I'm pretty sure of that.

lol. Yeah I actually found it to be an excellent way of judging the quality of a players finishing, but only if applied to a large number of shots because as you said each situation has it's particularities.

Going back on topic, I think this proves that Steven, at least in the finishing department, is far from average.

[zolayes 14,489]

when quantitative values are made on subjective judgements statistical analyses are invalid

[SeB 1,281]

when quantitative values are made on subjective judgements statistical analyses are invalid

There it underlines the will to find a pattern the closer possible, stats are worth a look but I'd never use that to prove anything. Just to confirm a trend or a feeling

[TorontoChelsea 4,064]

when quantitative values are made on subjective judgements statistical analyses are invalid

Bingo....I follow baseball and it is easily the best sport for statistical analysis because every single thing can be broken down because players have individual outcomes. Because of this, the sport is filled with a tremendous number of useful statistics that managers use to their advantage all the time. In team sports, it's a lot more difficult because you can't isolate individual plays the same way If player A takes a shot from point X in the box and scores and player B takes a shot from point X in the box and doesn't score, it doesn't mean that player B is worse. The cross into the box for player B could have been awful and the cross to player A perfect. Maybe the two keepers are Casillas and Taibi, etc...

There are useful stats of course, but there is no substitute for watching the game. But as SeB points out, even these wackier stats can still have value if they are overwhelming or just as a tool to "confirm a feeling".

[zolayes 14,489]

Bingo....I follow baseball and it is easily the best sport for statistical analysis because every single thing can be broken down because players have individual outcomes. Because of this, the sport is filled with a tremendous number of useful statistics that managers use to their advantage all the time. In team sports, it's a lot more difficult because you can't isolate individual plays the same way If player A takes a shot from point X in the box and scores and player B takes a shot from point X in the box and doesn't score, it doesn't mean that player B is worse. The cross into the box for player B could have been awful and the cross to player A perfect. Maybe the two keepers are Casillas and Taibi, etc...

There are useful stats of course, but there is no substitute for watching the game. But as SeB points out, even these wackier stats can still have value if they are overwhelming or just as a tool to "confirm a feeling".

love baseball and not only because of stats ,,,,last month has been terrible for CWS