Politics & Stuff

[Vesper 30,091]

3 minutes ago, cosmicway said:

One exception ?

you really are bad at gaslighting

here is one (all that is needed)

I can assure you that the Swedish governemt is not a front for Hamas 

https://www.government.se/government-policy/governments-response-to-situation-in-israel-and-palestine/swedens-humanitarian-support-to-gaza/

Sweden’s humanitarian support to Gaza

Due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Sweden has increased its humanitarian assistance by approximately SEK 520 million since 7 October 2023. Sweden has long been one of the largest donors to several humanitarian actors operating in Gaza.

Fighting between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas has now continued since the attacks carried out by Hamas on 7 October. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is devastating and the needs are acute and immense. The Government considers that an immediate humanitarian ceasefire is necessary. Better humanitarian access must be provided for support to reach those in need.

In the light of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Sweden has increased its humanitarian assistance by approximately SEK 520 million since 7 October 2023.

For support to reach those in need, humanitarian access must be vastly improved. This includes providing additional routes into Gaza and the possibility for safe movement of humanitarian staff and transports to all parts of Gaza. All parties to the conflict have a responsibility under humanitarian law to ensure that the civilian population’s humanitarian needs are met. 

At Sweden’s initiative, more than 30 countries have jointly encouraged Israel to allow increased humanitarian access to Gaza and enable better, more secure and sufficiently large deliveries.

Statement by Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell 

Together with other donors, Sweden is in dialogue with Israel on this matter.

 

[cosmicway 1,333]

11 minutes ago, Vesper said:

you really are bad at gaslighting

here is one (all that is needed)

I can assure you that the Swedish governemt is not a front for Hamas 

https://www.government.se/government-policy/governments-response-to-situation-in-israel-and-palestine/swedens-humanitarian-support-to-gaza/

Sweden’s humanitarian support to Gaza

Due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Sweden has increased its humanitarian assistance by approximately SEK 520 million since 7 October 2023. Sweden has long been one of the largest donors to several humanitarian actors operating in Gaza.

Fighting between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas has now continued since the attacks carried out by Hamas on 7 October. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is devastating and the needs are acute and immense. The Government considers that an immediate humanitarian ceasefire is necessary. Better humanitarian access must be provided for support to reach those in need.

In the light of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Sweden has increased its humanitarian assistance by approximately SEK 520 million since 7 October 2023.

For support to reach those in need, humanitarian access must be vastly improved. This includes providing additional routes into Gaza and the possibility for safe movement of humanitarian staff and transports to all parts of Gaza. All parties to the conflict have a responsibility under humanitarian law to ensure that the civilian population’s humanitarian needs are met. 

At Sweden’s initiative, more than 30 countries have jointly encouraged Israel to allow increased humanitarian access to Gaza and enable better, more secure and sufficiently large deliveries.

Statement by Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell 

Together with other donors, Sweden is in dialogue with Israel on this matter.

 

Even Swedish government has no control what happens after the aid is delivered.
 

[Fulham Broadway 17,299]

2 minutes ago, Fernando said:

I'm not sure about that. That is just pure speculation. 

Funny thing is they have a history of it since 1948. Nakba, 1967 Naksa Golan Heights, Sinai peninsular, Annexing Jerusalem 1980, another 320 illegal settlements (UN) in last 10 years etc etc

Even this year Israel has seized 23.7 sq km more than in the last 20 years...

Even Likud cabinet ministers have said Gaza is to be new Israeli settlements

[cosmicway 1,333]

The Palestinians of Gaza cannot go to Egypt.
The Egyptians will shoot them.
If the Israelis ... annex Gaza then those Palestinians will become Israeli citizens !
Neither seems to work.
The Israelis are saying that their purpose is to capture the Hamash leadership.
After that ?

The only real answer seems to be to get Iran.
But Iran is a country that has never been conquered.
Only Alexander the Great did conquer them and he wanted to create a mixed Greek-Persian empire.
But his epigones were not good enough and Persian empire rose again and the new rulers of the western world, the Romans, were never able to defeat them.
In the more recent history Iranians played the British and the Russians one against the other and they managed to stay independent.
The country is big.
It's much bigger than Iraq meaning that an operation desert storm is very difficult.
Same holds for Turkey btw. An operation desert storm against Turkey is likewise very difficult.
And same held for Jugoslavia and Romania during the days of communism. The Russians much liked to get both of them and Ceausesku was a rebel - strange that he did n't like Gorbatchev's ideas but in the sixties-seventies he was a rebel to the Soviets. But the size of those two countries made the task formidable for even the Soviet war machine.

It is my opinion nevertheless that only by getting Iran -through carpet bombing, MOABS- will the war end.

Edited October 16, 2024 by cosmicway

[Vesper 30,091]

2 hours ago, cosmicway said:

Even Swedish government has no control what happens after the aid is delivered.
 

non sequitur 

I was addressing your false claim that all organisations giving humanitarian aid were fronts for Hamas.

[cosmicway 1,333]

3 hours ago, Vesper said:

non sequitur 

I was addressing your false claim that all organisations giving humanitarian aid were fronts for Hamas.

Greece sends too:

https://hellenicaid.mfa.gr/apostoli-ellinikis-anthropistikis-voitheias-gia-tin-lorida-tis-gaza-12-apriliou-2024/

but no doubt all of this cargo was abducted by Hamash.
Those who request for money are all fronts.

[Vesper 30,091]

An analysis of the new European fiscal rules

Sebastian Gechert, Dario Guarascio, Philipp Heimberger, Bernhard Schütz and Francesco Zezza 15th October 2024

October 15th marks the deadline for EU member states to submit fiscal plans, influencing economic stability and public debt for years to come.

https://www.socialeurope.eu/austerity-at-our-doorstep-an-analysis-of-the-new-european-fiscal-rules

October 15^th is the deadline for member states to send their multi-year fiscal plans to meet reformed EU fiscal rules to the European Commission (EC). These plans are extendable up to seven years in the presence of investments and structural reforms consistent with the EU’s objectives. The plans will have to move within the constraints defined by the EC for each Member State, consistent with the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) on which the new system of fiscal rules relies heavily.

In this framework, the DSA plays a crucial role in defining the perimeter of fiscal policies implemented at the national level. By defining individual countries’ margins of manoeuvre over a multi-year horizon, the new scheme is supposed to ensure that the debt ratio is “on a plausible downward trajectory or remains at prudent levels, even under adverse scenarios”. The criteria used to define expenditure trajectories require that, without resorting to further fiscal consolidation, the public debt ratio falls or remains below the 60% of GDP threshold by the end of the adjustment period and in the following ten years; the debt ratio should fall with a “sufficiently” high probability; and the fiscal deficit should fall below 3 per cent and remain there in the medium term.

In a recent study, we have raised important questions about the potential impact of the wave of consolidation that governments will have to implement to meet the new rules. We analyse the sensitivity of the official DSA assumptions on how fiscal consolidation affects growth and public debt ratios. By introducing assumptions that are in line with the scientific literature and more realistic than the official assumptions used by the EC, we show how fiscal consolidations resulting from the new fiscal framework could affect economic growth more adversely than the European Commission suggests, which will also make it more difficult to bring down public debt ratios. This is particularly true in countries with high debts.

The analysis focuses on the four largest EU economies, which comprise about three-quarters of overall economic activity in the euro area: France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The latter face different challenges in terms of deficit reduction: while Italy, France and Spain have to undertake historically large adjustments from 2025 onwards, Germany needs a much more modest adjustment plan. Under a four-year adjustment plan, Italy is required to improve its structural primary balance by about 1.08 per cent of GDP per year to meet the new parameters. France and Spain will have to make an annual adjustment of 0.94 and 0.89 per cent of GDP, respectively, while Germany’s required consolidation is much lower at 0.11 per cent per year.

Our study identifies three key elements that, in the context of the DSA model currently used by the EC, may lead to an underestimation of the negative growth effects of fiscal consolidation.

• Fiscal multiplier. In the short term, a fiscal consolidation of EUR 1 billion reduces economic output by EUR 0.75 billion (a multiplier effect of 0.75). This multiplier value is presumably too small, particularly in times of crisis and for expenditure-based consolidations, and it is also smaller than in the study to which the EU Commission refers.
• Persistence of consolidation effects. In the medium term, the EC assumes that the multiplier effect will disappear completely three years after the adjustment and that economic output will return to its previous growth path. Here too, the DSA lags behind the EC’s own publications, which discuss longer-lasting negative growth effects. The more recent literature shows that fiscal policy measures typically continue to have an effect in the medium term.
• Absence of spillover. The EC considers the effects of consolidation for each member state individually. However, the austerity measures in France, for example, may also have a considerable impact on the export-dependent German economy and therefore on German public finances due to close trade links. These spillover effects of fiscal consolidation measures are discussed elsewhere by the EC as an important influencing factor, but are currently ignored in the DSA.

The simulations presented in our study compare the DSA projections for GDP growth and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio for Italy, Germany, France and Spain based on the official assumptions with alternative scenarios obtained by modifying the basic assumptions, in line with the academic literature. The changes concern a somewhat larger fiscal multiplier (0.9 instead of 0.75), slower dissipation of the consolidation effects (5 years instead of the 3 years) and the presence of ‘spillovers’ (consolidation in one country also influences its partners based on how tight the trade links are).

If one compares the combined scenario (where all the changes just illustrated are present) with what the EC envisages, a more worrying picture emerges, particularly for those economies that currently show a high debt/GDP ratio. Although GDP returns to the original potential GDP path in all countries as early as 2033, the weak growth in the meantime leads to significantly higher public debt ratios in 2038: +3.9 percentage points of GDP in France and Italy, +3.1 percentage points in Spain and +1.7 percentage points for Germany.

In Italy and France, GDP will almost stagnate in the EC’s baseline adjustment scenario from 2025 to 2028. In our alternative scenario, economic output even shrinks over this four-year period. Due to these effects, public debt ratios will initially continue to rise despite the strong austerity measures. It is not unlikely that the consolidation targets will be missed in the political process under these conditions and that governments will therefore have to go for even larger fiscal adjustments during the economic downturn.

The large euro area countries with high public debt ratios France, Italy and Spain will have to adjust significantly more than their EU peers. These countries may experience more adverse domestic growth effects than officially expected under the new fiscal rules. In particular, this will be the case if fiscal multipliers turn out larger and/or if the negative short-run growth effects from fiscal adjustment dissipate more slowly than assumed by the EC. Although a level shift in public debt ratios need not endanger debt sustainability in the medium run, economic stagnation and a larger than expected increase in public debt ratios in the short run may erode the confidence of voters and bond investors. Should cross-country spillovers materialise, Germany and other EU countries with strong trade links will experience lower growth due to the restrictive fiscal policy stance by important trading partners. Compensating for the drag on growth due to lower import demand from EU trading partners may not be an easy task in the current environment. This is especially worrying, since the German export-led engine is now facing renewed headwinds, as highlighted by ECB’s Isabel Schnabel just a few days ago.

The results from our study suggest that a discussion about the negative growth effects of the upcoming austerity policy and the implications for public finances is urgently needed. The DSA assumptions are essential to the reformed EU fiscal rules and should be discussed scientifically and politically. With the renewed focus on austerity, expanding public investment to meet the challenges of renewing infrastructure, climate change, and European sovereignty is becoming a distant prospect. As Mario Draghi’s recent report suggests, policymakers should be open to changes that allow for more public investment, including a European investment fund.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Vesper

[Vesper 30,091]

JD Vance says Trump did not lose the 2020 US election

After dodging the issue for weeks, Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance said unequivocally on Wednesday he believes false claims that Donald Trump did not lose the 2020 election.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jd-vance-says-trump-did-not-lose-2020-us-election-2024-10-16/

Oct 16 (Reuters) - Taking questions from reporters at a campaign event in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, Vance was again asked if Trump lost to President Joe Biden four years ago.

 

“On the election of 2020, I've answered this question directly a million times. No! I think there are serious problems in 2020,” Vance said. “So, did Donald Trump lose the election in 2020? Not by the words that I would use.”

 

Trump, the Republican candidate for president in 2024, continues to falsely claim that he lost the 2020 election due to extensive voter fraud, a view shared by millions of his supporters. Numerous inquiries, however, have found no evidence of fraud.

 

During his current run for president, Trump has suggested he will challenge the results if he does not prevail in the Nov. 5 contest against Democrat Kamala Harris, the US vice president.

 

His efforts to overturn the 2020 election led to his indictment by federal and state officials. He still awaits trial in those cases. His refusal to accept the outcome also sparked the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by thousands of his supporters.

 

Vance, a first-term U.S. senator, made headlines when he sidestepped the question during his debate with Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, on Oct. 1, saying he was focused on “the future.”

 

That led Walz to rebuke him. “That’s a damning non-answer,” he said.

 

In Williamsport, Vance said he was not espousing “some crazy conspiracy theory” in arguing Trump won. Instead, he blamed the election outcome on online censorship by large tech companies.

 

Pennsylvania is considered perhaps the most critical of the seven battleground states that will determine the election.

 

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[Fulham Broadway 17,299]

"I'm making this video in response to Trump's statement that autoworkers just 'assemble parts,' out of a box," she said. "I challenge you, Trump, to one full 12-hour day in any auto assembly plant. I want to see you assemble parts out of a box for 12 hours! Until you accept and complete this challenge, until you actually work a manual labor job, you keep the name of the UAW out of your mouth!"

Trump has tried courting union workers for endorsements this year, although the United Auto Workers, led by Shawn Fain, have been particularly resistant to his overtures.

Little Hands, Bone Spurs

[IMissEden 21]

23 hours ago, Vesper said:

 

As touched on, one is geared to post like, talk like, and manipulate, teenagers. 

[IMissEden 21]

15 hours ago, ZAPHOD2319 said:

He is becoming more unhinged everyday. Now his safe place Fox News is calling him on his nonsense and he goes further into the weeds. It’s crazy.

 

Based on a snipped out of context clip from Kamala HQ? Do you like to work with honesty or not 

[Vesper 30,091]

 

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2024 by Vesper

[Fernando 6,585]

18 hours ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Funny thing is they have a history of it since 1948. Nakba, 1967 Naksa Golan Heights, Sinai peninsular, Annexing Jerusalem 1980, another 320 illegal settlements (UN) in last 10 years etc etc

Even this year Israel has seized 23.7 sq km more than in the last 20 years...

Even Likud cabinet ministers have said Gaza is to be new Israeli settlements

Yes but those was after a war. Many nations wanted to destroy Israel so they have a right to defend themselves. In those wars the one that wanted to destroyed them lost and because of that lost land. That is what happened in war, if you lose you will lose land. 

If you want to defend land then go to Peru and defend the land they took from Ecuador. Go to Mexico and defend the land they lost to USA. Etc etc. 

But no, somewhere else no one cares but because it's Israel then people jump at any little thing. 

Edited October 17, 2024 by Fernando

[Fulham Broadway 17,299]

13 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Yes but those was after a war. Many nations wanted to destroy Israel so they have a right to defend themselves. In those wars the one that wanted to destroyed them lost and because of that lost land. That is what happened in war, if you lose you will lose land. 

If you want to defend land then go to Peru and defend the land they took from Ecuador. Go to Mexico and defend the land they lost to USA. Etc etc. 

But no, somewhere else no one cares but because it's Israel then people jump at any little thing. 

They have been aggressive before any 'wars'. The main reason is that it is an apartheid state, that is illegally occupying others land and they think they are better than everyone else.  In that instance the people that have been displaced and tortured have the right to defend themselves. 

Evangelical Christians blindly support israel because of the Judeo Christian links. I am not anti Israel have met many fantastic Israelis. 

However the UK and US with endless weapons for Netanyahu have sown much discord, and hate for decades towards Israel. 

[Sir Mikel OBE 4,920]

14 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Yes but those was after a war. Many nations wanted to destroy Israel so they have a right to defend themselves. In those wars the one that wanted to destroyed them lost and because of that lost land. That is what happened in war, if you lose you will lose land. 

If you want to defend land then go to Peru and defend the land they took from Ecuador. Go to Mexico and defend the land they lost to USA. Etc etc. 

But no, somewhere else no one cares but because it's Israel then people jump at any little thing. 

If Peruvians tried to genocide Ecuadorians we'd stop them.

 

Hell, we cant even stop Mexicans from hopping over the border without people screaming bloody murder so if any genocide happened we'd stop it.

 

Theres only one group who gets to kill at will, shame us about it, and then get paid after such shaming. Its why only 1 STATE  is a solution. 2 states would just be people killing each other until the end. These groups are going to have to live TOGETHER.