cosmicway

Morata is their top player and the only one who survived ! The penalty was from the orgies of Lucretia Borghia.

Kalomoira

Turkey 4 - Holland 2 !!!

It's a similarly big ask of City and Bayern.

PSG are having to face two beasts, Bayern and City but I think they are also underrated by the bookies.

We did not really say they are pushovers like Jeunesse Esch but they are rated below all of the other six.

Porto under Mourinho eliminated us, did n't they ?

Two matches against City and a possible CL final ! Think Pep.

Poor performance today but it was by intention.

Current Elo ratings from clubelo.com: Man. City = 2022 Dortmund = 1814 Porto =1798 Chelsea = 1894 Bayern = 2015 PSG = 1859 Real Madrid = 1913 Liverpool = 1904 Probability analysis based on those ratings gives the following results (probability and fair price in parenthesis) finalists pairs Man. City - Porto 5.5% (18.24) Man. City - Chelsea 12% (8.33) Man. City - Real Madrid 12% (8.32) Man. City - Liverpool 11% (9.09) Dortmund - Porto 1.3% (77) Dortmund - Chelsea 2.8% (35.15) Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.8% (35.14) Dortmund - Liverpool 2.6% (38.35) Bayern - Porto 5% (20) Bayern - Chelsea 11% (9.13) Bayern - Real Madrid 11% (9.13) Bayern - Liverpool 10% (9.96) PSG - Porto 1.8% (57.07) PSG - Chelsea 3.8% (26.06) PSG - Real Madrid 3.8% (26.04) PSG - Liverpool 3.5% (28.43) winner Man. City 26.3% (3.81) Dortmund 3.9% (25.86) Porto 4.2% (23.76) Chelsea 12.1% (8.29) Bayern 23.7% (4.22) PSG 5.9% (16.96) Real Madrid 12.6% (7.91) Liverpool 11.3% (8.82) It appears Bayern is the somewhat attractive bet (the bookies offer 4.50). Finalists pairs they do not offer. I suspect however that PSG is underrated. It should be 1950 or threabouts. If this is true then the table is modified and PSG and also Real become also attractive (9.00 and 11.00 at the bookies respectively). Modified table with PSG at 1950: finalists pairs Man. City - Porto 5.3% (18.96) Man. City - Chelsea 11.6% (8.66) Man. City - Real Madrid 11.6% (8.65) Man. City - Liverpool 10.6% (9.44) Dortmund - Porto 1.2% (83.41) Dortmund - Chelsea 2.6% (38.08) Dortmund - Real Madrid 2.6% (38.06) Dortmund - Liverpool 2.4% (41.55) Bayern - Porto 4.3% (23.02) Bayern - Chelsea 9.5% (10.51) Bayern - Real Madrid 9.5% (10.51) Bayern - Liverpool 8.7% (11.47) PSG - Porto 2.7% (36.82) PSG - Chelsea 5.9% (16.81) PSG - Real Madrid 6% (16.8) PSG - Liverpool 5.5% (18.34) winner Man. City 25.3% (3.96) Dortmund 3.6% (28.01) Porto 4.1% (24.49) Chelsea 11.7% (8.58) Bayern 20.6% (4.85) PSG 11.6% (8.59) Real Madrid 12.2% (8.18) Liverpool 11% (9.12)

I will make ergodic analyisis based on the elos for this.

Real are not the great force they were with Ronaldo. Same as in 2012. It was a period of slump for them (under Jose) and had they not failed against Bayern, the 2012 final would have been a walk in the park for CFC.

Yeah ok, they 're not useless. But Juve lost to the crossbars.

Naturally we would like Looserpool.

The three beasts between themselves ! We are in the final.

City - Dortmund Porto - CFC Bayern - PSG Real - Liverpool

Lost fourth bet in a row with Slavia. Backed Leicester to win away. Nuts. Backed Leicester to win at home. Nuts. Backed Slavia to win at home against Rangers. Nuts. Backed Rangers yesterday.

Arsenal v. Olympiakos was a b***dy fix yesterday.

Easy draws: Porto - Liverpool - Dortmund Medium: Real Hard: PSG - City - Bayern

Should have been 6-0 but well done.

He 's two years younger than Giroud though (32-34).

Why Giroud out ? Who is going to score goals in this world ? Did he have a yellow card ?

I 'm not impressed with Kai yet. Bats and Remy could do these things on a good day. He 's still weak in man to man situations (compare with Mason). As for Timo Werner it remains a mystery. Now I think his main problem is that he keeps his eyes fixated on the ground and therefore his shooting is affected.

Torres scored some fantastic goals over the years, including Camp Nou. Also lost many easy ones and he never made it to become a Chelsea legend. Morata scored some in the beginning, but overall he was a disappointment. He seems to have changed since he left. The day before against Lazio he scored one with clinical precision. When Morata was with us the obvious problem was lack of confidence - usually his mind went awol when presented with a chance. That does n't appear to be the case with Werner. In fact he looks very much the cool headed type - like Diego for instance. Ok we 've seen clumsiness too from him, but overall it seems that nothing he does seems to work. But may be there is some other problem. Maybe his keeps his eyes on the ground and this is a problem - the goalkeeper, defender gets the better of him.