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On 08/12/2024 at 19:40, NikkiCFC said:

Nothing new for Russia to take care of authoritarian leaders. 

Assad and his missus best say 'no thanks' when Vlad says 'nice cup of tea ?' or 'look at the view from this open window'

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What always amazes me is the incredible ability that conspiracy theorists have to live in a state of suspended disbelief.

It's like when a major (made up) prediction such as, "the internet is breaking" does not come true, they shrug and move to the next one. Wait! the last one was *proven* to be a lie, so why believe the same set of sources again?!

BTW, I work in internet networking and there is nothing breaking... we'd know.

Edited by robsblubot
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Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias

Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-have-one-very-strange-cognitive

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1. Perceptions

Yesterday Jemele Hill recirculated a study YouGov did in 2022 about the gaps between people’s perceptions and reality.

YouGov asked a series of questions on “What percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?” with the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.

The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:

  • Transgender: 21 percent

  • Muslim: 27 percent

  • Jewish: 30 percent

  • Black: 41 percent

  • Live in New York City: 30 percent

  • Gay or lesbian: 30 percent

We’ll get to the actual, in vivo percentages in a moment. First I want to point out the absurdity: 1-in-3 are gay/lesbian? Muslims and Jews make up 57 percent of the country? Blacks are 40 percent of the population?

Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?

If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?

If 40 percent of the country is black then wouldn’t there be a lot more black people in Congress? I mean, there have only been 12 African-American senators ever.

You see what I mean: These perceptions do not square with any version of observable reality. Here the numbers as they actually exist in the real world:

  • Transgender: 1 percent

  • Muslim: 1 percent

  • Jewish: 2 percent

  • Black: 12 percent

  • Live in New York City: 2 percent1

  • Gay or lesbian: 3 percent

We are talking about errors of perception measured by orders of magnitude. On the trans population, the average American’s estimation is off by 2,000 percent.

If you go down the list of characteristics YouGov asked people about, you see a persistent mistake in one direction: Americans vastly overestimate the numbers of people in minority groups. And by “minority groups” I’m talking not just about racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. They wildly overestimate all kinds of minorities.

For instance, in addition to believing that 30 percent of the country lives in NYC, the average American thinks that 30 percent of the country lives in Texas and 32 percent lives in California.2

People think that 20 percent of the country makes $1 million (or more) per year (real number: less than 1 percent); that 54 percent of the country owns guns (real number: 32 percent); that 40 percent of the country served in the military (real number: 6 percent); and that 30 percent of the country is vegetarian (real number: 5 percent).


There’s something interesting going on here that speaks to a particularly American cognitive bias.

You might think that a normal bias would be to look around, see what is common in your experience, and extrapolate to believe that this is also for true of the rest of the world. Instead, we have the opposite.

People see very few of these characteristics in their everyday lives—and then decide that the rest of the world must be full of these minority groups they rarely encounter.

For someone living in a middle-class suburb of Cleveland, how many trans people, or Muslims, or millionaires do they meet on a daily basis? I’m guessing, just based on statistics, that the answer approaches zero.

But this average person takes the absence of those minority groups in their life and assumes that the rest of the country is chockablock with them.

That is a strange kind of bias. But wait—there’s more!

As YouGov kept going they found that people generally underestimate the size of majority populations. Here’s what they found on majority characteristics, where the number in blue is the percentage that people think exists and the number in red is the percentage that actually exists.

 

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I would like to propose that this peculiar perception bias is indicative of something deep in the American psyche.

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😂

Trump to nominate Kimberly Guilfoyle for ambassador to Greece

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-kimberly-guilfoyle-greece-ambassador/

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President-elect Donald Trump announced Monday he is nominating Kimberly Guilfoyle to be U.S. ambassador to Greece. Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host-turned-political fundraiser, was dating Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.

"For many years, Kimberly has been a close friend and ally," Trump said in a statement. "Her extensive experience and leadership in law, media, and politics along with her sharp intellect make her supremely qualified to represent the United States, and safeguard its interests abroad."

Guilfoyle's nomination would require Senate confirmation. 

Guilfoyle wrote on social media following the announcement, "I'm honored to accept President Trump's nomination to serve as the next Ambassador to Greece and I look forward to earning the support of the U.S. Senate."

"As ambassador, I look forward to delivering on the Trump agenda, supporting our Greek allies, and ushering in a new era of peace and prosperity," she added.

 

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All too often environmental news is one of grim statistics: climate records broken; species lost; pollution levels rising in land, sea and air. 
But every so often it’s worth pausing to recognise the progress that is made. Today the energy think tank Ember reports that 2024 is set to be the first full year in which low-carbon renewables provide more UK electricity than fossil fuels. Wind, solar and hydropower are projected to generate 37 per cent of our power – about 103 terawatt hours (TWh) – this year, overtaking fossil fuels, which are expected to provide 35 per cent, or 97 TWh. Ember has excluded biomass – which is sometimes considered a renewable energy source – from the renewables category due to its emissions.

Passing this landmark demonstrates the speed at which progress is being made. Just three years ago, in 2021, fossil fuels generated 46 per cent of UK electricity and renewables just 27 per cent. “The renewables future is here,” Frankie Mayo, Ember’s senior UK analyst, said. “This long-awaited milestone is a testament to how much progress the UK has made.”

Ember’s report also reveals that wind power could overtake gas to become the UK’s largest source of electricity in 2024, but it is still too close to call. So far this year wind has provided 29 per cent, just behind gas power at 30 per cent. The weather through the rest of December will determine which comes out on top.

This is an extraordinary feat – but there is a long way to go if the government is to achieve its aim of providing a clean power system by 2030. And there will be significant hurdles along the way. 

It is worth looking to Sweden to see the potential traps in the road ahead. The Nordic country has one of the cleanest power grids in the world: fossil fuels provide just 1.7 per cent of its electricity, with 62 per cent coming from low-carbon renewables – predominantly hydropower and wind – and 29 per cent from nuclear. 

Sweden offers an example of success, but it comes with a warning. Swedish green power has expanded so quickly that on windy days there is often a glut, and when that happens electricity prices dip to zero, or even into the negative. Sometimes power is generated for free, for days at a time. That is great for consumers, but for investors it is unsettling. 

With little return on offer, developers are starting to look elsewhere. No new turbines have been ordered in Sweden since the first quarter of the financial year. “It’s certainly a challenging situation,” Matilda Afzelius, of Renewable Energy Systems Holdings Ltd, told Bloomberg. “We’re definitely facing headwinds, everything is much slower than we’d like and expected.” Analysts fear the lull may even threaten Sweden’s ambitious target of reaching net zero by 2045, a goal that the country hopes to achieve five years ahead of the UK. 

All big industrial transitions will at some point face a bump in the road. But the advantage of being second, rather than first, is that you can swerve the bump rather than hit it. 

There are several ways the UK could avoid the problems Sweden is facing. Boosting energy storage – to ensure that power gluts do not go to waste – is one solution. Managing demand, to encourage industry and households to use power when it is plentiful and save it when it is scarce, is another. Whatever route the government decides to take, they have been offered a warning from Stockholm. Let’s hope they’re paying attention.

Edited by Vesper
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6 hours ago, Vesper said:

😂

Trump to nominate Kimberly Guilfoyle for ambassador to Greece

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-kimberly-guilfoyle-greece-ambassador/

Gec3knqWoAA0mgY?format=jpg&name=large

President-elect Donald Trump announced Monday he is nominating Kimberly Guilfoyle to be U.S. ambassador to Greece. Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host-turned-political fundraiser, was dating Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.

"For many years, Kimberly has been a close friend and ally," Trump said in a statement. "Her extensive experience and leadership in law, media, and politics along with her sharp intellect make her supremely qualified to represent the United States, and safeguard its interests abroad."

Guilfoyle's nomination would require Senate confirmation. 

Guilfoyle wrote on social media following the announcement, "I'm honored to accept President Trump's nomination to serve as the next Ambassador to Greece and I look forward to earning the support of the U.S. Senate."

"As ambassador, I look forward to delivering on the Trump agenda, supporting our Greek allies, and ushering in a new era of peace and prosperity," she added.

 


Once upon a time US ambassadors were real tough guys, making the commies shiver.
Now this one ?
God knows.

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THE "LACK OF DEMOCRACY" IN THE EU
----------------------------------------------

I am requesting your help with this one.
It's the clarion call of the brexiters.
I never quite understood it and I think it's pure hype for the uneducated masses or rather uneducated +++ masses.
But if there are some rudiments of logic in it please explain them to me.

This talk was realy started by Wedgewood Benn, back in time.
What the fellow meant was the EU structure hindered socialist reforms in Britain, which may be true, but lack of democracy ?
Then it was picked up by the, mostly right wing, brexiteers and we keep hearing it ad nauseum.

Let me however describe to you a real lack of democracy story in the EU.
It was the year 2006.
A friend of mine statistician-magazine editor published an entertainment magazine.
It was crosswords-Sudoku and Lotto systems.
I helped in this with the mathematical side and wrote several spreadsheets to make calculations.
So he was paying me with some little money for this work.
He wanted to publish it in German and French languages, he did not want in English.
But first German so he did the necessary translation work etc and shipped the periodicals to Germany.

As is the practice in Greece such periodicals stay in the news agencies practically forever.
So today I can find the latest issue but also issues from ten years ago, even twenty years ago.
The vendors are ok with this, if they sell they take the money.

But in Germany no.
The press distribution authority collected everything after fifteen days and they said that's it - it's a bimonthly issue so we collect at the end of the two weeks.
My friend protested but they said if you want more time in the stands you must pay more to the authority.
The entire project became uneconomic as a result and folded.

Now what could he do about it or what could I do ?
Write to von der Leyen ?
She will say "my dear friends this is a matter of German law, nothing to do with me".
But even if this happened here in Greece and unsatisfied with the Greek authorities response we went to the EU again they will say "it is a matter of Greek law, nothing to do with us".

So it is lack of democracy.
Of course a final decision could always go against us but it's lack of democacy, no recourse to justice.

This kind of thing can be corrected only if EU becomes a single state.
So we all vote for a European government.
Maybe CDU - Macron - Tories win with the decisive help of the Portuguese voters but that's it - real democracy.
Yet this kind of thing would make the brexiters foam in the mouth and make them vote brexit twice, not once !

So the perplexing question remains.
What the heck are the brexiters and the Tories talking about ?

Edited by cosmicway
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14 hours ago, cosmicway said:


Once upon a time US ambassadors were real tough guys, making the commies shiver.
Now this one ?
God knows.

when she does the hoe stroll in her stripper heels she will make Greek dicks shiver

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Elon Musk Gloats as Trump Announces Billionaires Will Be Exempt From Normal Environmental Rules

"This is awesome."

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-trump-billionaires-exempt-environmental-rules

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is dancing with joy now that his new father figure Donald Trump has promised him that he will no longer have to abide by the pesky environmental rules that apply to lowly commoners.

On Tuesday, president-elect Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post that any "person or company" investing $1 billion or more in the US would "receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental [sic] approvals."

"GET READY TO ROCK!!!" Trump exclaimed.

"This is awesome," gloated Musk, the world's richest man, on X-formerly-Twitter, which he also owns.

The unusual pronouncement makes it sound as though there will soon be two sets of environmental rules in the US: one for the wealthy, and one for everybody else.

The initiative — if it actually happens, which is always a question with Trump — will also likely dovetail with his efforts to roll back environmental protections to pave the way for fossil fuel production.

Trump's pick for Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, is a climate change skeptic, which means we should expect an even bigger emphasis on oil and gas production.

Meanwhile, the president-elect has called for the US to "drill, baby, drill," while calling the environmental protection initiative known as the Green New Deal the "green new scam" and a "waste" of money.

For his part, Musk has increasingly turned a blind eye to protecting the environment as his public politics have shifted.

Previously, the billionaire had vowed to "expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution" in his 2006 "Secret Master Plan" climate manifesto — which was quietly deleted from the EV maker's website earlier this year.

Musk, who was once hailed as a pioneer in our efforts to electrify cars to save humankind from climate change, has become a poster child for flouting environmental rules. Just last month, the Wall Street Journal found that Tesla's factory in Austin had been leaking hazardous wastewater into the city's sewer, violating local environmental guidelines.

SpaceX's operations at its "Starbase" in South Texas have also repeatedly run afoul of environmental rules by threatening a nearby nature reserve, including the wildlife that lives there, with its thunderous Starship rocket launches.

The space company was sued in October over unpermitted wastewater discharges.

That's not to mention the chemicals that many researchers believe SpaceX's thousands of Starlink satellites are releasing in the Earth's upper atmosphere as they burn up after their useful lives, a strain on the environment that scientists are only beginning to understand.

Musk has also railed against the Federal Aviation Administration, with SpaceX suing the regulator for "regulatory overreach."

In a bigger sense, Trump is also saying the quiet part out loud by announcing that only companies with a billion dollars to throw around will be allowed to flout environmental rules, leaving everyone else out in the cold.

In other words, the richest men in the world are being served even more rights on a silver platter — at the expense of the American people who will suffer the consequences.

"What about us small business owners?" one X user replied to Musk.

More on SpaceX and the environment: Elon Musk Slammed for Filling Orbit With Space Junk

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