Why Chelsea signed Nicolas Jackson: Ruthless finishing, ‘Neymar’ dribbles and pace
https://theathletic.com/4639514/2023/06/27/Chelsea-nicolas-jackson-transfer-analysis/
Few events in football can match the wild mixture of excitement and trepidation conjured whenever Chelsea sign a new No 9.
The evidence from this century so far suggests Nicolas Jackson, a €35million (£30m, $32.7m) acquisition from Villarreal, will either become an era-defining club legend or an ignominious failure with very few paths open between those two extremes (and if he wants to become the next Didier Drogba or Diego Costa, he might want to pick a different shirt number than the 15 he wore last season).
Jackson seems a bigger bet than most. Six months ago, he was set to join promoted Bournemouth’s battle against relegation for £21m, only for a badly-timed hamstring injury to scupper his medical. At that point, he had only scored three goals for the season and was often used as a substitute by coach Quique Setien.
It took injuries to Gerard Moreno and Jose Luis Morales for Jackson to get a consistent run of minutes as the focal point of Villarreal’s attack over the final eight league La Liga games from late April. He duly exploded, scoring nine goals in those matches and making himself a person of interest to a very different level of Premier League suitor.
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Anyone labelling Jackson as one of European football’s most promising young strikers is really only talking about two months at the end of 2022-23. Before last season, albeit he was still 21 years old at the start of this month, he had a little more than 100 senior minutes to his name for Villarreal, preceded by productive but not prolific stints with the club’s B team in 2021-22 and on loan at second-tier club Mirandes a year earlier.
That is not a lot of data or scouting material upon which to base such a significant investment, but Chelsea are clearly confident they have secured an elite talent who is on a sharp upward trajectory.
So what did they see to convince them that Jackson could be the striker they have been crying out for?
Finishing
Jackson was remarkably clinical during his eight-game hot streak: the nine goals he scored during it came from just 12 shots on target. For the 2022-23 La Liga season overall, his 12 goals had an expected goals (xG) value of 8.0, meaning that due to above-average finishing, below-average goalkeeping or a combination of the two, he found the net four more times than expected.
The bulk of Jackson’s goals came from high-value positions; the shot map below illustrates that 87.8 per cent of his chances fell inside the penalty area, and four of his goals were scored from within the six-yard box. His xG per shot value of 0.2 was also the joint third-best in La Liga last season, reinforcing the fact that most of his attempts were taken from good areas.
Some were predictably more difficult than others.
In a 5-1 win over Athletic Bilbao on May 13, he twice tapped into an empty net from close range and the first of two he scored in a 3-1 defeat of Celta Vigo two weeks earlier came directly from a disastrous opposition turnover that allowed him to run through on goal unimpeded.
But interspersed with the gifts were goals that highlighted Jackson’s ability to find a variety of ruthless finishes as circumstances required.
Here, he breaks the deadlock against Valencia on May 3 by chesting a through ball into his stride and then lashing an unstoppable shot high just inside the near post:
Here, on the final day of the season against Atletico Madrid, he controls a defensive deflection that falls kindly to him with one slick touch, then rips a shot just inside the goalkeeper’s far post:
And a few minutes after opening the scoring in that April match with Celta, Jackson times a darting run in behind just as Giovani Lo Celso is lining up a through ball…
… and then has the composure to round the keeper before slotting in from a tight angle:
That last sequence also highlighted Jackson’s talent for getting himself into scoring positions in the first place…
Movement
Jackson’s late-season scoring burst came when he was deployed as Villarreal’s central striker at the tip of either a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1, most often flanked by dynamic wingers Yeremy Pino and Samuel Chukwueze. His speed and direct running instincts gave the team a dangerous outlet to stretch defences by running onto longer passes.
The first notable flash of this came in the final seconds of a 2-1 victory over Almeria in October. Jackson, on as a half-time substitute, starts his run the moment Dani Parejo turns and looks up in midfield:
Parejo clips a precise ball over the top and Jackson’s burst buys him so much separation that he can pause, freeze the goalkeeper and then score the winner:
Jackson’s movement also gives him opportunities to create danger for himself.
Midway through the first half against Cadiz on May 24, he sets off on the blind side of his marker as a longer ball is played out of defence into the left channel:
As it bounces, he arcs his run inwards to cut off his initial marker, then wins a shoulder-to-shoulder tussle with a covering defender for the loose ball and knocks it into the penalty area, which draws out the goalkeeper:
Having rounded the ‘keeper and steadied himself, Jackson moves infield and sits down another defender before finishing from the middle of the six-yard box:
This combination of sharp movement and a willingness to seek out the ball made Jackson a headache for defenders in the final stretch of last season.
It also helped to unlock and showcase one of his more tantalising attributes…
Dribbling
Being called “The Senegalese Neymar” in his teenage years feels like a bit of a stretch, but it is notable that, in an interview with Spanish radio station Onda Cero last year, Jackson did name the Paris Saint-Germain superstar, Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka as his main footballing idols. And he is very comfortable and impressively effective with the ball at his feet against isolated defenders.
Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid was the only player in La Liga last season who recorded more goal contributions following dribbles than Jackson’s 10 – a tally that included three occasions where he rounded the ‘keeper to score himself.
Jackson’s ball-carrying also proved an effective means of moving Villarreal up the pitch; his 4.2 progressive carries per game were only bettered by five centre-forwards in La Liga in 2022-23. Overall, his 58.3 per cent success rate at one-v-one take-ons was the best of any centre-forward who attempted at least 20 in Spain’s top flight.
Here, against Espanyol on April 27, a well-timed run gets him into the box with only one defender to beat. He checks inside onto his right foot…
…but that touch brings another opponent into the equation, so Jackson shifts his body balance and moves the ball back onto his left foot in a tight space, then squeezes a low shot into the net:
Jackson likes to drift out to the left flank, where he can more easily isolate opposition defenders when he has the ball. Here, late on against Girona on May 20, he checks infield from there to create a little separation…
…then jinks back past his marker, down the line into a crossing position…
…and bends a ball around two more defenders to set up Moreno for the game’s winning goal:
Jackson’s ability to be a crosser from that left channel opens up more direct scoring possibilities.
Here, against Real Sociedad on April 2, he drifts out to receive the ball and drags a defender with him, creating the space for him to drive back into the middle of the penalty area…
…from where he finds the bottom corner with a precise low shot through a crowd:
Setien used Jackson on the left and the right of Villarreal’s front line at times before his late-season scoring burst, and it is easy to see what he can offer from those areas.
Link-up play
Jackson was not required to be heavily involved in build-up play once he became the focal point of Villarreal’s attack in April. His primary responsibilities after that were to stretch the game and to be the finisher of moves, but when he did drop deeper there were some promising flashes.
Here, in the opening minutes of that same match away to Girona, he presents for the ball on the halfway line…
…and deftly slips his onrushing marker with a sharp lay-off to the feet of the adjacent Pino, which allows him to turn and run into space ahead of the play:
Here, during the visit by Real Sociedad, he takes a long low pass out of defence in stride with a first touch that keeps the nearest defender at his back…
…and releases Chukwueze with a precise through ball into the right channel:
Jackson’s link-up play does need more refinement, though. When he is smothered by smart opponents who take away his preferred passing option, he can hesitate and turn the ball over, as happens here against Atletico Madrid in the season finale three weeks ago:
But, in general, he is not a liability when involving himself in the game before the final third, and he’s at an age where he has plenty of time and room to grow.
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Aerial game
We have arrived at the blind spot in Jackson’s attacking game.
Despite his height (186cm/6ft 1in), the three-cap Senegal international is particularly bad in the air, both when contesting aerial duels with opposition defenders and when trying to direct headers at goal. Of Jackson’s 41 attempts on goal in La Liga last season, only two were with his head – one missed the target, the other was easily gathered by the goalkeeper.
Even when in a good position to meet a cross, he has not yet figured out the timing of his jump and the coordination of his body to direct the ball where he wants it to go. Here’s the miss, away to Real Betis last September. He looks well-placed to connect with an inviting delivery from the right, but the ball simply glances off the side of his head and bounces wide:
And here, in a November meeting with Lech Poznan of Poland in the group stage of last season’s Europa Conference League, he is perfectly positioned to re-direct a deep cross from the left back across the goalkeeper, but again only manages to get a glancing contact:
High balls out of defence aimed at Jackson tend to come straight back; he won only 30.2 per cent of his aerial duels in La Liga last season, a number that will have big bruising centre-backs across the Premier League licking their lips. Even when in position to see the ball as it approaches, he often gets caught under it, allowing opposition defenders to come over the top.
This is an example from last month’s home match against Athletic, where Jackson’s marker is sufficiently comfortable reaching the high ball that he can direct his header to a team-mate rather than merely clearing the danger:
Much of this will be familiar to Chelsea fans who watched Romelu Lukaku’s ill-fated second stint at Stamford Bridge.
Having turned 22 last week, Jackson has more time on his side and when it comes to heading, timing and technique can be improved with coaching. Aggression cannot, however, and it is hard to see him ever becoming a real presence in the air unless he truly wants to.
The bar for scoring competence at Chelsea fell to a historic low last season.
With fans starved of goals, expectations lowered and new head coach Mauricio Pochettino coming in next week with fresh ideas, the ground seems fertile for a dynamic attacker unscarred by those recent failures to make his mark.
Will that be Jackson? He is certainly much more polished than a developmental project such as 20-year-old new team-mate David Datro Fofana, and his larger price tag reflects that. But he also looks some way off being able to come in and consistently impact Premier League matches from day one.
Pochettino's confirmed and CFCW are champions as the curtain closes on 2022-23
https://player.fm/series/straight-outta-cobham-a-show-about-Chelsea/pochettinos-confirmed-and-cfcw-are-champions-as-the-curtain-closes-on-2022-23
It would not be shocking if Chelsea also move to sign a more established striker in this window. How many minutes would that leave available for Jackson or the returning Armando Broja, once the latter is over December’s ACL injury?
As is often the way with Chelsea, the talent is more obvious than the plan.
But in Jackson’s case, the talent is undeniably intriguing.
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